| | |  | BY CALDER MCHUGH | | | 
Former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-Md.) on Meet the Press with former President Donald Trump pictured in the background. | William B. Plowman/NBC via Getty Images | FEAR FACTOR — With former President Donald Trump holding a commanding lead in primary polls and leading or tied with President Joe Biden in general election matchups, Democrats are starting to get nervous. And they’re channeling that anxiety into pushback against the centrist political organization No Labels, which has pledged to raise $70 million for a possible third party bid and to gain ballot access in all 50 states. On the Hill, Democrats are pleading with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to abandon the idea of a run on the No Labels ticket . Opinion columnists are spinning out, arguing in one instance “The real danger in 2024 [is] not the Republican opposition, but a misguided gang of once-upon-a-time Democrats who call themselves No Labels.” The progressive polling shop Data for Progress, which has done opinion polling for Biden’s camp in the past, has new polling out that suggests a No Labels candidate would siphon votes from Biden and enable a Trump victory. The analysis relies on polling that shows independents prefer Biden to Trump in a two-way race, and that in a hypothetical three-way race that included former Maryland GOP Governor Larry Hogan, Hogan would pull more votes from the Democratic nominee than the Republican nominee. That prospect of a well funded third party candidate eating into Biden’s vote share is alarming to Democrats because of the likelihood that this will be a razor-thin race, especially if Trump is the GOP nominee. In his two previous runs for president, Trump has failed to reach 50 percent of the popular vote (he actually came slightly closer in 2020, with 46.8 percent compared to 46.1 percent in 2016). Also fraying Democratic nerves is a fear of — and the inability to plan for — the unknown. No Labels currently has no clear policy platform, no candidate and has not committed to running someone in the 2024 election. According to No Labels’ chief strategist Ryan Clancy, the group will make the decision on whether to run a candidate based on their own modeling — and they won’t run someone they don’t think has a chance to win. Currently, their research shows Trump as a unique variable. “There’s about 20 million voters in the model that in effect say, ‘I like Donald Trump’s policies, but I don’t like or want to vote for Trump,’” Clancy says. That suggests a third-party candidate could cut into Trump’s numbers as well as Biden’s. But it also means that if Trump is not the standard bearer of the Republican party, it’s much less likely that No Labels will launch a presidential candidate. At the moment, the organization doesn’t believe there’s much of a path to victory for a third party candidate without Trump in the mix. In mid-July, No Labels plans to release their platform, which they are calling “Common Sense,” in a reference to — you guessed it — Thomas Paine. According to Clancy, it’s “30 signature ideas, that based on a year’s worth of talking to the public, we feel like represent the will of the common sense majority.” No Labels insists that while they haven’t begun the process of considering specific candidate names yet, they’re on the way to getting on the ballot in all 50 states, plus D.C. Currently, their tally stands at four: Alaska, Arizona, Colorado and Oregon — all of which allow for early ballot access for an organization without a candidate. “I think one of the reasons it’s elicited such a negative reaction to date, mostly from Democrats, is they said, ‘Well, wait a minute, Arizona, Colorado. I mean, we need these states, why are they going after our states?’” says Clancy. “We’re not just cherry picking some individual states that we think are going to be important to a unity ticket. Every time the state opens up, we get into that state and get to work.” In a nutshell, No Labels is unlikely to run a candidate if Trump loses, they haven’t yet released a party platform and they’re only on the ballot right now in four states. Still, for Democrats, it’s never too early for panic mode. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on Twitter at @calder_mchugh .
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| | A message from Alliance For Justice & Alliance for Justice Action Campaign: Clarence Thomas Broke the Law.
While Justice Thomas was helping strike down abortion and voting rights and sensible gun laws, a far-right, billionaire donor was rewarding him with secret, all-expense paid luxury vacations, unfair real estate deals, and free private school tuition for a relative. It’s not just unethical. It’s illegal. It’s time for Justice Thomas to resign. Sign our petition. | | | | | — House punts on GOP hardliners’ Biden impeachment push: The Republican-controlled House voted today to slow down a conservative push to quickly impeach President Joe Biden on a 219-208 vote . The move stops short of a historic impeachment vote but appeases GOP hardliners who had agitated for more action. It effectively punts impeachment articles against Biden to two committees that are already investigating his administration. — George Santos’ father and aunt backed his bail bond, court papers show: Two of Rep. George Santos’ family members guaranteed the bail bond on which the indicted congressman was released last month , according to court papers filed today despite Santos’ bid to keep their identities private. The first-term Republican’s father, Gercino dos Santos, and his aunt, Elma Preven, were disclosed as the individuals, known as sureties, who guaranteed the $500,000 bond, meaning they would be legally responsible for the money if Santos were to flee. — FTC, Microsoft spar in court over Activision deal: The Federal Trade Commission kicked off a five-day hearing over Microsoft’s $69 billion takeover of video game giant Activision Blizzard, urging a federal judge to temporarily pause the deal from closing before a full trial can take place. If the deal is completed, the combined company “is likely to have the ability to harm competition in various markets related to consoles, subscription services and the cloud,” FTC lawyer James Weingarten said in his opening statement. Weingarten said Microsoft has justified the deal internally with the possibility of making popular Activision games like Call of Duty exclusive to its platforms.
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| | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | | | TIGHT LIPPED — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declined today to say whether he would support Donald Trump if the former president becomes the Republican nominee to challenge President Joe Biden in 2024, writes POLITICO’s Gary Fineout. DeSantis, who launched his own presidential campaign last month, was asked whether he would “support” in the wake of Trump’s recent barrage of criticism over the governor’s handling of Covid-19. DeSantis sidestepped that part of the question and instead said Trump was “full of it” for criticizing how DeSantis responded to the Covid-19 pandemic. CLASSROOM SCUFFLE — The DeSantis administration sued the U.S. Education Department and top federal officials this week , claiming they are impeding efforts by Florida universities to switch accreditors — a significant priority for state Republicans, writes POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury. Florida’s suit is challenging federal rules governing accreditation boards that Gov. Ron DeSantis contends wield too much power over schools and are circumventing policies and decisions from state leaders. The lawsuit marks the latest legal battle between DeSantis, a Republican presidential candidate, and the Biden administration as the sides continue to clash over an unrelated high-profile immigration dispute. “Within the next couple years, I think we’re going to see this accreditation cartel basically come crumbling down and more freedom in higher education reigning supreme,” DeSantis said today at an event in Tampa announcing the lawsuit. THE EVER-EXPANDING GOP PRIMARY — Former GOP Rep. Will Hurd announced today he is running for president, becoming the first Texan with experience in elective office to enter the Republican primary , reports the Texas Tribune. Hurd, who represented Texas in Congress from 2015-21, begins his campaign as a major underdog. He is an unabashed moderate and a Donald Trump critic in a party where many remain loyal to the former president and frontrunner for the 2024 Republican nomination. Hurd revealed his decision in a morning interview on CBS and followed it up online with an announcement video that began with Hurd listing illegal immigration, inflation and other problems before addressing the current and former presidents.
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| | A message from Alliance For Justice & Alliance for Justice Action Campaign:  
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Russian gas tanker Rudolf Samoylovich, sailing under the flag of Bahamas, moors at a dock in western France. | Loic Venance/AFP via Getty Images | TANKERS NOT WELCOME — Hundreds of tankers could be barred from European ports as part of a new effort to crack down on illicit sales of Russian crude oil that Western nations fear are helping fund the war in Ukraine, writes Gabriel Gavin . After weeks of tense negotiations, EU countries finally signed off on the 11th package of sanctions to be imposed on Moscow in just over a year. But instead of introducing new restrictions, draft documents seen by POLITICO show Brussels’ focus is now on tightening loopholes in existing rules, creating powers for secondary sanctions and naming and shaming companies that fall foul of the rules. "Attempts to circumvent Union restrictive measures have resulted in a sharp increase of deceptive practices by vessels transporting Russian crude oil and petroleum products," the text of the Council decision reads. Officials are concerned about the so-called shadow fleet of hundreds of aging tankers carrying Russian oil, potentially bought at prices above the $60 per barrel price cap imposed by the G7. DAMAGE CONTROL — President Joe Biden said today that his comment about “dictators” when referring to Xi Jinping would not affect recent progress in U.S.-China relations , writes Lucy Hodgman . Biden used the term on Tuesday during a campaign event in Kentfield, Calif., while discussing a Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. downed in February. When asked about the comment during a news conference with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India today, Biden said he expected to meet with the Chinese president sometime in the near future, adding that he did not think the incident “had any real consequence.” Despite Biden’s saying that diplomatic relations would be unharmed by the “dictator” comment, it appears to have stirred unrest in China. The Chinese government registered a formal protest earlier today and also reportedly summoned the U.S. ambassador to Beijing, R. Nicholas Burns, for an official reprimand over the comment.
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$2.75 billion The cost of a new U.S.-backed semiconductor assembly and test facility that will be built in India , according to U.S. officials who announced the project ahead of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the White House today. Utah-based Micron Technology is making an investment of more than $800 million in the project, which will also be partially funded by support from Indian authorities. Biden and Modi also announced a landmark deal for General Electric to build military jet engines in India with Hindustan Aeronautics, a state-owned company. |
| | | HUMAN AUTOMATION — Since we’ve seen the power of ChatGPT and other artificial intelligence tools, there’s been increasing fear about AI taking human jobs. Tasks that could once only be done by humans can now be automated — up to a point. Based on current and plausibly future AI technology, humans still need to input directions to AI ; that’s not always simple. So, rather than replacing jobs, AI often just changes them dramatically. Josh Dzieza reports for The Verge about this potential coming shift in the economy and the practical effects we’re already seeing.
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On this date in 1992: A wounded civilian gets help after heavy shelling in central Sarajevo which killed at least seven people and wounded dozens. | Santiago Lyon/AP Photo | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here .
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| | A message from Alliance For Justice & Alliance for Justice Action Campaign: It’s time for Clarence Thomas to Resign.
While Justice Clarence Thomas was making the rules the rest of us have to live by, he was also accepting secret lavish gifts like luxury vacations from a far-right billionaire and not properly disclosing them as required by federal law. Anyone who believes the rules don’t apply to him or his billionaire friends has no business sitting on the Supreme Court. Tell Justice Thomas: If you want to make the rules, you don’t get to break them. It’s time to resign. Sign our Petition. | | | | |
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