Wednesday, April 27, 2022

POLITICO NIGHTLY: Biden vs. Covid: 4 experts on the risks

 

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BY MYAH WARD

Presented by Connected Commerce Council

DINNER RESERVATIONS — The question everyone in Washington is thinking but few are saying out loud: How dangerous is it for President Joe Biden if he were to catch Covid?

The virus sure seems to be creeping closer to the 79-year-old president. He is planning to attend this weekend’s crowded White House Correspondents’ Association dinner, even after the superspreader event at the Gridiron dinner and after Vice President Kamala Harris’ positive Covid test. Anthony Fauci announced late last night that he was pulling out of the event due to Covid risk.

A side-by-side showing Anthony Fauci and White House press secretary Jen Psaki.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said today the president will likely mask and will not attend the “eating portion” of the dinner on Saturday, which is currently clocking in at more than 2,600 attendees. He’ll just show up for his speech and subsequent roasting.

Even so, he’s 79. So Nightly asked our go-to public health experts to assess the president’s risk if he were to test positive, given what we know about his age, health, vaccination status and medical care.

“Anytime a 79-year-old individual with dyslipidemia and atrial fibrillation contracts an acute infectious disease, it is always concerning. However, since the president is vaccinated and up to date with his boosters, he’s unlikely to have a severe bout of Covid although it could be uncomfortable and disruptive in a person like him. He also has prompt access to monoclonal antibodies and antiviral therapies, which would limit severity.” Amesh Adalja , senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

“I think it’s important to continue a full court press and do everything reasonably possible to prevent the POTUS from acquiring Covid. His age places him in a high-risk category even after his immunizations and boosts, and we’re seeing a fair number of breakthrough hospitalizations in his age group. Once transmission goes down in Washington, D.C. — and it won’t be much longer before that happens — then I believe it’s safe for President Biden to attend public events. However, until then, it’s best he avoid big gatherings in my opinion.

“In the end, it’s all about community transmission.” Peter Hotez , dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and co-director of the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development

“After reviewing President Biden’s medical records and knowing that he has had four shots of the vaccine, I would estimate his risk of getting ill from Covid if he is exposed as very low. 

“After two vaccines, the risk factors for a severe breakthrough infection, per the CDC, are if someone is immunocompromised and/or 65 and older with comorbidities, specifically diabetes, chronic kidney, cardiac, pulmonary, neurologic, and liver disease, which predispose to severe Covid infection. The president is generally healthy and does not have any of those risk factors for severe breakthrough infections after vaccination.

“If he tests positive for Covid-19, he will be evaluated closely and likely offered Paxlovid (an oral antiviral) within the first five days after contracting Covid if he develops low oxygen levels or any other symptoms (e.g. shortness of breath) that are concerning for proceeding to severe disease (his cholesterol medication will have to be temporarily stopped due to drug-drug interactions with Paxlovid).

“However, he does not actually fit the clinical criteria of being treated with Paxlovid, as he is neither unvaccinated at risk of a severe infection nor immunocompromised. Therefore, like many of his fellow political figures (such as Nancy Pelosi who is of similar age and health and did not have any symptoms when she tested positive), it is very unlikely he will become sick.” — Monica Gandhi , infectious diseases expert at the University of California at San Francisco

“Biden would have a reassuringly low risk of severe disease or death — largely due to the benefits of being vaccinated and boosted.

“Given his advanced age he would be at high enough risk of progression that he should receive Paxlovid as long as he doesn’t have any contraindications or prohibitive factors, which it doesn’t seem like he has from what we know. And while he has been reported to have atrial fibrillation and a remote surgery for brain aneurysms, his list of other comorbidities seems relatively short. His doctors should ensure that any medications he is on should not have any significant drug-drug interactions with Paxlovid & that he receives the correct dosing based on his kidney function.

That the president would get all the care he needs without delay is not a surprise — but is a reminder that this isn’t the case just yet for all Americans. With serious issues related to the roll out and distribution of Paxlovid, high-risk Americans who are not the president are the people I’m more worried about that cannot easily access the antiviral within the small window where it has the most benefit. Some of these people are not vaccinated; and a much bigger portion are still not boosted.” Abraar Karan , infectious disease doctor at Stanford University

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at mward@politico.com or on Twitter at @MyahWard.

A message from Connected Commerce Council:

Why is Small Biz so big on Tech? Because digital tools make it easier to compete with the big guys. Google Ads help small businesses reach customers cheaply, while Amazon Prime gives marketplace sellers access to millions of customers and guaranteed two-day shipping. No wonder 85% of businesses say digital tools help them compete. Don’t wreck the tech that empowers their success. Learn why blocking Tech has big consequences for small business.

 
WHAT'D I MISS?

— New York’s top court throws out district lines and delays primary: The New York Court of Appeals tossed the state’s new congressional and state Senate maps today, finding that they “were drawn with an unconstitutional partisan intent.” The decision will likely delay at least some of the primaries scheduled for June 28.

— Judge rejects Elon Musk's bid to end SEC tweet settlement: A federal judge has denied the Tesla CEO’s request to terminate an agreement with the SEC requiring him to get approval from securities lawyers for certain tweets, part of a $40 million settlement in 2018 over charges that he misled investors by falsely tweeting he had secured funding to take Tesla private.

— Post-Floyd probe finds discrimination by Minneapolis police: A state investigation launched after George Floyd’s murder by a police officer has determined that the department engages in a pattern of race discrimination . Minnesota’s Department of Human Rights, which announced the findings of the nearly two-year probe today, has the power to enforce the state’s Human Rights Act, which makes it illegal for police departments to discriminate against someone due to their race.

— Trevor Reed released from Russia in prisoner swap: A former U.S. Marine from Texas who was detained in Moscow has been released and returned to the United States. In return for Reed, the U.S. agreed to release Konstantin Yaroshenko, a Russian pilot and convicted drug trafficker serving a 20-year federal prison sentence in Connecticut.

— Multiple RNC staffers have spoken to Jan. 6 panel, sources say: Most of the Republican National Committee officials who have spoken with investigators are former employees who worked during the 2020 election cycle, including the fraught period between Election Day and the attack on the Capitol, one person said. The interviews underscore the Jan. 6 committee’s interest in how political messaging by the national GOP apparatus may have stoked falsehoods about the 2020 election.

 

JOIN US ON 4/29 FOR A WOMEN RULE DISCUSSION ON WOMEN IN TECH : Women, particularly women of color and women from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds, have historically been locked out of the tech world. But this new tech revolution could be an opportunity for women to get in on the ground floor of a new chapter. Join POLITICO for an in-depth panel discussion on the future of women in tech and how to make sure women are both participating in this fast-moving era and have access to all it offers. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
AROUND THE WORLD

MORE GAS SHUTOFF THREATS — Any country refusing to bow to the Kremlin’s demands to pay for natural gas in rubles will face the same fate as Poland and Bulgaria, Moscow warned after those two countries saw their deliveries drop to zero today.

“Payment in proper form will be the basis for the continuation of supply,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, referring to a March 31 decree signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin demanding that all gas payments be made in rubles.

The European Commission insisted that payment to Russia in rubles is forbidden as it undermines sanctions imposed after it invaded Ukraine, write America Hernandez and Paola Tamma.

That sets up a major clash between the EU, which gets 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia, and Moscow, which depends on those sales and which can’t easily shift gas deliveries from European to Asian markets.

5 MILLION REFUGEES — The European Commission proposed a new package of measures today to strengthen the bloc’s approach to legal migration , after some 5 million Ukrainian refugees have entered the European Union since the Russian invasion.

The aim is not only to provide simpler, legal pathways for migrants and reduce illegal migration but also to address labor shortages, especially in sectors such as health care. As for the Ukrainians who have come to the EU, and to whom the bloc has temporarily provided full rights, the Commission proposal includes a pilot project just for them, writes Jacopo Barigazzi.

The proposal aims to reform two pieces of existing legislation: The first change relates to the single permit that allows migrants to work and obtain residence. The process for getting this permit will be streamlined and shortened, the Commission said, as time delays can deter employers from international recruitment.

The second reform is for the long-term residence directive. So far, this has been underused and the new proposal would allow non-EU nationals to accumulate residence periods in different member states in order to meet the five-year residence criteria needed to stay in the long term, as well as improving the right to family reunification.

 

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

1.1 million

The number of Muslim voters who cast a ballot in the 2020 election, turning out in numbers large enough to swing the presidential race in key battleground states. The analysis by Emgage, a Muslim American civic group, found that 71 percent of registered Muslim voters in the U.S. went to the polls that year — an uptick of 2 percentage points compared to 2016, and 4 points higher than the nationwide turnout level in 2020.

 

DON'T MISS ANYTHING FROM THE 2022 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from the 25th annual Global Conference. This year's event, May 1-4, brings together more than 3,000 of the world’s most influential leaders, including 700+ speakers representing more than 80 countries. "Celebrating the Power of Connection" is this year's theme, setting the stage to connect influencers with the resources to change the world with leading experts and thinkers whose insight and creativity can implement that change. Whether you're attending in person or following along from somewhere else in the world, keep up with this year's conference with POLITICO’s special edition “Global Insider” so you don't miss a beat. Subscribe today.

 
 
PARTING WORDS

‘THE VENN DIAGRAM OF MANCHIN AND SINEMA’ — The White House began this week with a modest goal for resuscitating its domestic agenda: Get Joe Manchin to the negotiating table. So far, the seats are empty, write Adam Cancryn and Laura Barrón-López.

With the clock ticking on their hopes of clinching a major climate and deficit reduction deal before Memorial Day, Democratic leaders are again struggling to make progress — stymied by a lack of clear direction or an understanding of what both Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), their two biggest obstacles, are prepared to support.

“The White House is hamstrung by the Venn diagram of Manchin and Sinema asks,” said a person familiar with Manchin and White House dynamics.

Currently, informal reconciliation talks center on three major areas: climate change, prescription drug reform and deficit reduction. While the White House has yet to acknowledge other social spending elements have been moved off the table, multiple people familiar with the talks said Biden’s ambitions on child and elder care are all but dead.

But even getting a slimmed-down reconciliation package through the evenly divided Senate will depend solely on Biden’s ability to get Manchin and Sinema to yes. And seven months after the White House first tried to crack the Manchinema puzzle last September, it’s clear little has changed.

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A message from Connected Commerce Council:

Small businesses get a big hand from Tech. Digital tools like Google Business Profile, Instagram Paid Ads and Microsoft Teams make way for new business opportunities and greater growth—empowering smaller shops to more easily stand out and find new customers. Matter of fact, 92% of small businesses use digital services to connect with customers. That’s why wrecking their Tech is just bad business. Discover all the ways Tech helps drive small business success.

 
 

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