| | |  | BY DAVID SIDERS | Presented by |  |
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| With help from Renuka Rayasam and Myah Ward RE-RAISING ARIZONA — The election is in what you might call its quadrennial “ knowable but not callable” moment — except that instead of lasting for an hour or two, it has stretched out for two days. The question of the moment is: When can you say, “Joe Biden has won the election”? How will we know? To be clear, Joe Biden is not yet the president-elect. He may never be. President Donald Trump could draw the ace he needs in Pennsylvania, stave off Biden in Georgia, and hold serve in North Carolina. But right now, that’s not what many people watching Pennsylvania think is going to happen. And Trump would also need one more state, either Nevada, where Biden’s lead is considered pretty solid, or one that has already been called by Fox News and the Associated Press for Biden: Arizona. For Trump to win a second term, that call of Arizona would have to be reversed, in a kind of slow-motion replay of the night in 2000 when Florida was called for Al Gore, and then for George W. Bush, and then for no one. Will that happen? Maybe. Yet that leads to another factor, larger than this agreed-upon uncertainty about the facts. Right now, one of the two candidates — the sitting president — has made it clear that we no longer have a common set of facts to work with. And a large percentage of the country agrees with him. So what is unfolding right now, in newsrooms and living rooms, in this moment of uncertainty is also a debate about what to do with information when it is known — and whether it matters that one of the two candidates is disputing it. If Nevada is called for Biden before the questions around Arizona are settled, or before any recounts are finished, or before the electors have finalized the vote in the Electoral College, has he become the president-elect? The answer has consequences that extend beyond the normal tension about being fast, but also right. Fox’s decision to call Arizona for Biden enraged Trump’s campaign, and also gummed up the visuals for his premature claim of victory on election night. Fox viewers could see the Electoral College vote count for themselves: at that point, Biden with 238 votes, Trump with 213. If Biden wins Pennsylvania or, less likely, Georgia, then the mystery surrounding Arizona no longer matters. Biden will have won the presidency. But what if Nevada finishes counting first? Has Biden won? Or hasn’t he? How many licks are there in a Tootsie Roll pop? When you look at this image, do you see an hourglass or two faces? No news outlet — this one included — wants to say Biden got to 270 if the projection in Arizona, or one of the other states, turns out to be wrong. The flip side is that if Biden wins Nevada and the projections in Arizona are right, it’s inaccurate to say the race is still undecided. But, right now, at least, that’s where things stand.
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An anti-Trump protester argues with a Trump supporter in Detroit. | Getty Images | Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Watch my colleagues break down this election tonight at 8 p.m. EST with the team from SHOWTIME’s The Circus. Reach out at dsiders@politico.com or rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @davidsiders and @renurayasam.
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A message from Care in Action: Right now, children are crying for their parents, because our government said “we need to take away children” - cruelly plotting to separate babies from their parents. How do we explain to our kids that families were separated on our watch? We need to reunite every family. Now. | | | | | THEY’RE COUNTING CASES TOO — At some point, the presidential election will be over, and the pandemic will have been here the whole time. The U.S. has breached 100,000 new cases a day, the most since July. Covid is wreaking havoc everywhere, and state and local leaders are in a bind as they battle both rising case numbers and political pressure to keep businesses open. As the pandemic looms over an undecided presidential election, Nightly’s Myah Ward broke down the virus trajectory in the five states that have yet to distribute their electoral college votes — Alaska, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — using 7-day averages from the Covid Tracking Project. Alaska Population: 731,545 Daily cases: 378.9 Daily deaths: 1 Currently hospitalized: 96.43 Daily cases and hospitalizations have more than doubled since Oct. 5, and deaths are up from one every five days or so. Alaska was one of the first states to fully reopen this spring. Despite Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s efforts to control travel into the state and Alaska’s robust testing program, cases reached a new high in late October — and spread to Alaska’s remote villages. The governor has encouraged masking and social distancing but has stopped short of new shutdowns. Georgia Population: 10,617,423 Daily cases: 1,646 Daily deaths: 29.29 Currently hospitalized: 1,746 Cases and hospitalizations have increased since Oct. 5, but deaths are down slightly from a month ago. Georgia was one of the earliest states to reopen, and Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has kept it that way. In mid-August, he amended an executive order that allowed local leaders to issue their own mask mandates and has continued to extend the state of emergency, this time through Dec. 9. Nevada Population: 3,080,156 Daily cases: 972 Daily deaths: 7.86 Currently hospitalized: 653.3 Cases and hospitalizations have spiked since Oct. 5, with new daily cases more than doubling. Deaths are up slightly. Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, reopened Nevada this spring but slowed reopening as cases rose this summer. In September, the governor allowed bars to reopen statewide. He urged Nevadans last week to practice social distancing and wear masks so he doesn’t have to shut down the economy again. North Carolina Population: 10,488,084 Daily cases: 2,377 Daily deaths: 37.86 Currently hospitalized: 1,172 Cases, deaths and hospitalizations have risen since Oct. 5. Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, moved the state into Phase 3 reopening in early October, allowing movie theaters to reopen at limited capacity, while bars and entertainment venues were allowed to open outdoors. The governor extended Phase 3 on Oct. 21, citing an increase in cases. Pennsylvania Population: 12,801,989 Daily cases: 2,527 Daily deaths: 25 Currently hospitalized: 1,383 Cases and hospitalizations have surged since Oct. 5, both more than doubling. Deaths have increased, too, from 17.1 on Oct. 5. All Pennsylvania counties are in the final phase of reopening, though there are still restrictions in place for bars, restaurants and large gatherings. A judge struck down business closures and gathering limitations imposed by Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf on Sept. 14, but an appeals court ruled the governor could restore gathering restrictions on Oct. 1.
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| | NEW EPISODES OF POLITICO'S GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS PODCAST: The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, and these issues have exploded in 2020. Are world leaders and political actors up to the task of solving them? Is the private sector? Our Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, unpacks the roadblocks to smart policy decisions and examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. Subscribe for Season Two, available now. | | | | | | | NEW HUES — A majority of the voters in South Texas and South Florida counties cast their ballots for Biden, but at the same time those areas saw a dramatic shift in support toward Trump. Other areas with notable increases in Trump support: Arkansas, New York, western Utah and southeastern Ohio. In contrast, support for Biden strongly increased in urban and suburban counties, as well as in New England, the Mid-Atlantic states, Colorado, Arizona and along the West Coast. Even a majority of counties in Montana and Wyoming — which overwhelmingly voted for Trump — experienced a slight blue shift. “It’s bizarre to me to be honest with you,” Gilberto Hinojosa, chair of the Texas Democratic Party, told Nightly’s Renuka Rayasam about the swing towards Trump in South Texas. Hinojosa said his party stayed focused on health care and education, two issues that typically rank high among the largely Mexican American population along the border. But he thinks Trump gained support among the area’s immigration officials and oil and gas industry workers. And even though Covid was rampant in the Rio Grande Valley, Hinojosa said people opposed business closures. “It’s not something any of us saw coming.”
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Patterson Clark | POLITICO | | | THE JANUARY EFFECT — Even without a winner, both parties are in post-election mode. — Trump is starting his second term early, writes White House reporter Nancy Cook. Trump and his aides have settled on a plan for him to take full advantage of his existing perch at the White House to look as presidential as possible, according to three people briefed on the strategy. He may fire a few Cabinet members and top aides, including FBI Director Chris Wray and Defense Secretary Mark Esper. He could sign a slew of base-pleasing executive orders. He might even resume his travel schedule. — Democrats are still holding out hope they can control all three branches of government, write Heather Caygle and Sarah Ferris. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her top lieutenants issued a stark warning for Democrats today, saying if they swing too far left they’re all but certain to blow their chances in the Georgia runoff that will determine which party controls the Senate. Congressional Democrats are collectively pinning their hopes on a pair of Senate races in January in Georgia, one of the most competitive states in the nation — an outcome that could determine whether Democrats hold all levers of power in Washington next year, despite a disappointing night on Tuesday.
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| | | | | COVID WAS ON THE BALLOT — Biden is inching his way toward a win, but Congress is on track to be more divided than ever. In the latest POLITICO Dispatch, health care reporter Dan Diamond explains how the coronavirus pandemic split the nation — and how polarized views of Trump’s response shaped results up and down the ballot.
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| | KEEP UP WITH THE PEOPLE AND POLITICS DRIVING GLOBAL HEALTH IN GLOBAL PULSE: This year has revealed just how pivotal it is to keep up with the politics and policy driving global health. Our Global Pulse newsletter connects leaders, policymakers, and advocates to the people and politics making an impact on our global health. Join the conversation and subscribe today. | | | | | | | | |
| | | GENERATION 2000 — Nightly’s Tyler Weyant writes: It’s Nov. 7, 2000, and Ms. Houck is passing out maps to my fourth-grade social studies class. Tonight’s homework, she says, is to watch the presidential election returns and color in the states red and blue as they are called. By the time we turned them in a week later, my map had Florida as a grey-purple amalgam of numerous over-colorings. The vast array of 20- and 30-somethings working in political journalism right now have the memories of the 2000 election bored into their psyches much differently than do the veterans of the profession. While our top editors were covering the Brooks Brothers Riot or chatting off the record with Donna Brazille, we were in the lunch line deciding between regular or chocolate milk. Yet living through the 2000 maelstrom as children may have better prepared us for this moment. The world of the 2020 election is the only direct political reality we have ever known. Twenty years is a long time. My fourth grade classmates and their ilk have families and bills to pay now. We are watching this election not with shock but with nodding familiarity and deep-seated knowledge of the country’s political divisions. For those of us who decided, in the 21st century, to get into journalism as a career, the concept of two Americas, divided almost 50-50, speaking two different political languages is our baseline. So, as this election unfolds across an indeterminate time frame, I will trust the scores of millennials on the front lines of this story even if we were fast asleep by the time Tim Russert wrote “Florida, Florida, Florida” on a whiteboard. For all the Gen X and Boomer journalists out there tweeting that 2000 made this a cakewalk, I kindly ask that you spare me your Werther’s Originals and storytime.
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A message from Care in Action: Right now, children are crying for their parents, because our government said “we need to take away children” - cruelly plotting to separate babies from their parents. “I always tell my kids to treat others the way you want to be treated. How do I explain to our kids that families were separated on our watch?” We can make this a nation we’re proud to leave our kids. We need to reunite every family. Now. | | | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. | |
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