POLITICO Nightly: What Mexico’s new president means for the U.S.

BY RACHEL SHIN Presented by Citi Claudia Sheinbaum celebrates following the results of the general election in Mexico at Zocalo Square in Mexico City. | Carl de Souza/AFP via Getty Images MEET LA DOCTORA — America’s closest partner — on trade, migration, energy and more — has made history by electing its first woman as president. Now the U.S. is watching Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum with one question in mind: Will she be a facsimile of her predecessor or blaze her own path? Sheinbaum served nearly five years as mayor of Mexico City, resigning in 2023 to seek the presidential nomination. Before entering politics, she was an environmental engineer, worked on a UN panel of climate scientists, and received the nickname “la Doctora” for her stellar scientific credentials. Sheinbaum’s landslide victory was propelled by the endorsement of Mexico’s current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), her political mentor and the wildly popular founder of the country’s dominant, populist MORENA party (Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional). She’s promised to follow many of his precedents, including cooperating with Washington on reducing migrant border crossing, but it’s not yet clear whether she’ll diverge from him on key issues highly relevant to the U.S. including gang violence, energy and international investment. To understand the significance of Sheinbaum’s election for U.S.-Mexico relations, Nightly spoke with Lila Abed, the director of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute and a columnist for El Heraldo de México and Opinión51. We discussed how Sheinbaum’s election fits into the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship, and what may be on the horizon for the U.S.’s top trade partner. This interview has been edited for length and clarity. What are the key differences between AMLO and Sheinbaum, the former president’s hand-picked successor? What changes can the U.S. expect?  Security cooperation between Mexico and the United States under the AMLO administration really deteriorated. There’s going to unfortunately need to be a rebuilding of mutual trust between U.S. and Mexico’s security agencies. From speaking to folks close to Claudia’s team, there really is an incentive to restart the relationship with the United States in terms of security cooperation. Sheinbaum, at least in her political platform, has signaled stark differences, one being that she wants to create a national intelligence agency that can better gather intelligence and information, that coordinates all levels of federal, state and municipal level in terms of security cooperation. I think this will allow the United States and Mexico to better exchange intelligence and information and continue doing operations on the ground that serve both the U.S. and Mexico’s priorities in terms of security. How do you expect Sheinbaum to cooperate with the Biden administration on immigration?  On the migration front, Sheinbaum is going to continue to cooperate with the United States because Mexico has a real objective to stem migrant flows into Mexico. Mexico is no longer just a transit country for migrants. It is now a destination, and the Mexican government has to absorb thousands of migrants that are going to potentially stay in Mexico if they can’t reach the U.S.-Mexico border. Sheinbaum has stated that she wants the United States to provide funds and resources so that Mexico can absorb these migrants on Mexican soil. She will press, like AMLO did, for the United States to fund some of the social programs that in her view could really address the root causes of migration. Sheinbaum is a renowned climate scientist. Do you see her following her predecessor’s investment in domestic fossil fuel infrastructure, or pivoting to renewables?  She has said that she wants to attract more investment for the renewable and clean energy sector. That’s very different from AMLO’s preference for fossil fuels and dirty energy. She is a scientist by trade. So that might drive her idea of bringing more foreign direct investment in the renewable energy sector, which is super important for the United States. I think Sheinbaum has a better understanding of how vital the energy sector is for the United States and how important it is to preserve a good standing as the top trading partner of the United States in order for the economy to keep growing. Despite being the U.S.’s top trade partner, Mexico has also been cozying up with Chinese investors. What is Sheinbaum’s stance on China, and how could that impact the Mexico-U.S. relationship?  It is true that investment from China has increased in Mexico in the past years. Sheinbaum understands that this is a hotspot for the United States, but she is going to have to balance this relationship with China because, for example, Chinese companies offer Mexican citizens a cheaper alternative to EVs than the United States. So she’s going to have to keep her consumers happy and at the same time make sure that she keeps the United States happy and keeps U.S. national security protected. Mexico’s high level of violence will be one of Sheinbaum’s most urgent challenges upon taking office in October. How will she tackle Mexico’s pervasive gang violence? If we look at what she did as mayor of Mexico City, we can get an idea of what to expect during her six-year term. Her security strategy in Mexico City did provide really positive results on a variety of issues. I think she’s going to have a much stronger security strategy than AMLO’s failed “Hugs Not Bullets” strategy, which focused on the prevention side of security instead of frontally combating transnational criminal organizations. And she will receive pressure from the United States. I think Mexico will continue to place the illicit flow of arms from the United States and Mexico as a priority for the Mexican government on the security agenda. There’s real optimism from different U.S. security agencies that this will be a restart, a 180 from what they saw with AMLO. What’s the significance of Sheinbaum’s landslide and the extreme dominance of the MORENA party? The governing party won not just the presidency, but won a super majority in Congress, seven out of nine governorships, the mayorship of Mexico City, and the majority of the major districts in the Capitol. So it really is a testament that Mexico’s democratic system is reversing into a single, dominant hegemonic party. Why is this important to the United States? Because if Mexico doesn’t have a democracy, forget about security cooperation, forget about nearshoring, because companies are not going to want to invest in a country where there’s no separation of powers, where there’s not an independent, autonomous judicial branch, where there’s no clear rules of the game. All of this could affect all aspects of the bilateral relationship and that is something to keep an eye on. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @rachel_shin_ . A message from Citi: How will digital currencies shape the future of finance? As blockchain technology advances, digital currencies are poised to disrupt traditional banking models and could redefine the global monetary landscape. Central banks are working across global stakeholders to help determine what future adoption might look like – presenting both challenges and opportunities for businesses. Explore in-depth analysis from Citi on the potential implications in the Citi GPS Report, Money, Tokens, and Games.   WHAT'D I MISS? — Appeals court halts Trump’s criminal proceedings in Georgia amid scrutiny of Fani Willis: A Georgia appeals court has halted all pretrial proceedings in Donald Trump’s Atlanta-based criminal case while a three-judge panel considers whether to disqualify the lead prosecutor, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. The order issued today effectively confirms that the sprawling racketeering case against Trump and more than a dozen codefendants — charging them with an attempt to corrupt Georgia’s 2020 election results — will not come before a jury in 2024. — Contraception bill fails in Senate: Senate Republicans blocked passage today of a bill to protect Americans’ access to birth control , one of several legislative actions Democrats have pledged on reproductive rights in the leadup to the November election. Only Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) broke with the GOP to vote in favor of the legislation, which failed 51 to 39 — short of the 60 votes needed to advance. The vote comes on the heels of former President Donald Trump telling a local television station that he’s “looking at” restrictions on contraception, and just ahead of the two-year anniversary of the Dobbs decision that ended the federal right to abortion. Trump quickly walked back his comment in a social media post, vowing never to “ban” birth control. — Two of Hunter Biden’s exes describe his years of drug abuse: Hunter Biden’s federal trial on gun-related charges took a personal turn today as two of his former romantic partners, including his ex-wife, Kathleen Buhle, took the witness stand and described Biden’s years of abusing crack cocaine . Both women were called by prosecutors, who have charged the president’s son with three felonies stemming from his purchase of a handgun in October 2018. Prosecutors say he lied about his drug addiction on a federal gun-purchasing form and then illegally possessed the gun for about two weeks.   THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists. Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY .     NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 CORPORATE OUTREACH — Former President Donald Trump will attend a private meeting with one of the most powerful business lobbying groups in Washington as he tries to craft an alliance with major corporate leaders, reports NBC News. Joshua Bolten, the CEO of the Business Roundtable, confirmed in an email to members today that Trump will be at the group’s plenary meeting in Washington on June 13. Though President Joe Biden was invited, he cannot attend due to overseas travel for a G7 meeting. The business group instead asked White House chief of staff Jeff Zients to come, according to Bolten’s email. Zients accepted the invitation last week and plans to address the group on June 13, according to a person familiar with his plans. The meeting is off the record and closed to the press, Bolten wrote in his message. THE DAILY VEEPSTAKES — Donald Trump’s search for a running mate is intensifying , as the former president awaits sentencing on felony charges and prepares for next month’s Republican National Convention, writes NBC News.. Vice presidential contenders recently received vetting materials. Trump’s search, according to one source, is heavily concentrated on four top prospects: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida, Tim Scott of South Carolina and JD Vance of Ohio. Another source described a three-way competition involving Burgum, Rubio and Vance.   A message from Citi:     AROUND THE WORLD Posters of candidates displayed for the European elections on administrative notice boards in Paris. | Magali Cohen/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images TO THE POLLS — Across Europe, the radical right is on the rise. This week’s European Parliament election will reveal just how much . In France, the far-right National Rally party is on track to receive a third of the vote, more than double the support of its nearest rival, President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party. In Germany, despite a series of scandals, the AfD is headed for second place, ahead of every partner in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing Brothers of Italy party is floating far ahead of the chasing pack. Five years ago, a “Green wave” in the 2019 European Parliament election spurred the Continent’s leaders to launch an epochal restructuring of the economy aimed at making the EU climate-neutral by 2050. This year, the tide is flowing in the opposite direction. An even stronger performance by parties once shunned as too toxic to work with will likely have an even larger effect as Europe’s political leaders realize the radical right is no longer at the gates — it’s inside the palace and can no longer be ignored. The European Parliament election runs from June 6-9 — keep tabs on the results here . And if you’re an American who hasn’t heard much about what’s going on this week, here’s a primer . BUZZ THE TOWER — Ukrainian officials are pressing the U.S. and other countries to ramp up their F-16 pilot training , saying the current pipeline isn’t producing enough aviators to fly the jets that will be soon donated to Kyiv. Ukraine says it has 30 pilots who are eligible to start training in the U.S. immediately. Yet the Biden administration has told Kyiv it lacks the school seats in its Arizona-based program to accept more than 12 pilot trainees at a time, according to three people with direct knowledge of the request. Two other facilities in Denmark and Romania have a similar issue with available training spots. It’s the latest hurdle in the drawn-out effort to get modern F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Kyiv began pushing for the aircraft in the months following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, but was repeatedly rebuffed by the Biden administration. In May 2023, President Joe Biden greenlit other countries’ requests to send their F-16s, but logistical challenges repeatedly delayed the training. Further complicating the effort, it took months for Western countries to agree to send their own aircraft to Ukraine.   JOIN US ON 6/12 FOR A TALK ON THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY : As air travel soars again, policymakers and airlines are grappling with a series of contemporary challenges to the industry's future. Join POLITICO on June 12 for a topical and timely conversation with government leaders and aviation stakeholders about the state of the airline industry. From what passengers want to what airlines need amid the high demand for air traffic, workers and technology solutions. What can Washington do to ensure passengers and providers are equipped to fly right? REGISTER HERE .     NIGHTLY NUMBER Up to $17 billion The amount that Disney plans to invest in its Florida resort , now that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the company are set to bury the hatchet and approve an agreement. Five DeSantis-appointed supervisors who oversee the Disney World district voted today to give initial approval to a new development agreement. RADAR SWEEP SUBSCRIPTION-BASED COFFEE — In our regular work-from-wherever era, a lot of people are choosing to post up for hours — or the full day — at coffee shops. For the businesses, it can be inviting to have a full place. But usually, people sitting there for hours and not ordering anything beyond one coffee when they arrive is bad for business, making it difficult to stay afloat. One potential solution? A subscription model . Pay a nominal fee and get to sit in the place all you want. Could your favorite coffee shop become a little more like a gym, or a newspaper? Andy Vasoyan reports for Slate. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1989: A Chinese man stands alone to block a line of tanks heading east on Beijing's Cangan Blvd. in Tiananmen Square. The man, calling for an end to the recent violence and bloodshed against pro-democracy demonstrators, was pulled away by bystanders, and the tanks continued on their way. The Chinese government crushed a student-led demonstration for democratic reform and against government corruption, killing hundreds in the strongest anti-government protest since the 1949 revolution. | Jeff Widener/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here . A message from Citi: How will digital currencies shape the future of finance? As blockchain technology advances, digital currencies are poised to disrupt traditional banking models and could redefine the global monetary landscape – presenting both challenges and opportunities for businesses. Blockchain-based products can make a significant impact in terms of wide consumer adoption in digital currency, especially central bank digital currency (CBDCs), gaming, and social. Momentum on adoption has positively shifted as governments, large institutions, and corporations have moved from investigating the benefits of tokenization to trials and proofs of concept. Explore in-depth analysis from Citi on the potential implications in the Citi GPS Report, Money, Tokens, and Games.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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Sign The Petition: Baby sea turtles need you for World Oceans Day

 

WORLD OCEANS DAY ALERT: We must protect our oceans, marine animals, and coastal communities from rampant plastic pollution before it’s too late to stop the PLASTIC APOCALYPSE! Take action now! >> World Oceans Day is just 3 days away, so what better time is there for you to get involved and advocate for healthy and sustainable oceans? With summertime on its way, many of us are already daydreaming about sitting on the beach: toes buried under a layer of soft sand, watching the sunshine glisten on the waves while they peacefully crash upon each other as the refreshing ocean breeze grazes your toasty skin. Sadly, this picturesque tropical fantasy could soon be out of reach — because plastic waste is decimating our oceans, ruining our beaches, and killing some of our most beloved aquatic creatures like baby sea turtles, dolphins, and seals. We aren’t talking about small numbers here either. OVER A MILLION marine animals and seabirds are killed every year from plastic pollution.  Remember the tragic story of Gingerbread? Gingerbread was the baby sea turtle in Florida who died weighing only as much as a carrot when researchers discovered an alarming 24 pieces of plastic in the poor animal’s tiny stomach! Every day, harmless marine animals like Gingerbread are mistaking plastic debris for food, causing them to die from ingestion or entanglement.   If plastic pollution continues at this rate, not only will we lose critical marine species that contribute to healthy biodiversity, but our oceanic ecosystems could completely crumble: putting our entire Earth and all its living beings in danger.  Our planet cannot survive without clean and healthy oceans, so the plastic crisis impacts each and every one of us. In honor of World Oceans Day, we’re mobilizing environmentalists like you who will speak up against out-of-control plastic pollution that’s destroying our fragile oceans. Can we count on you to add your name right now?  SIGN THE PETITION 88% of the ocean's surface is already polluted by plastic. Imagine enough plastic to fill an entire dump truck every single minute, day and night, all year long: that’s the type of plastic crisis our planet is facing. At this rate, scientists are even predicting there will be more plastic than fish in the sea by 2050!  While it’s true that our oceans serve as an epicenter of biodiversity, there are other ecological benefits to healthy oceans as well. We rely on the ocean to provide us with HALF of the world’s oxygen AND storing 90% of additional heat caused by global warming. Oceans act as a carbon sink absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere to help mitigate climate change.  For decades, our oceans have continued to suffer the devastating consequences of reckless plastic pollution. Now, life on Earth as we know it is on the line. Plastic is already infiltrating every aspect of our life and putting human health at risk by contaminating our food chain and degrading water quality — exposing us to toxic chemicals. Meanwhile, plastic production itself burns through excessive amounts of harmful fossil fuels and emits pollutants into the atmosphere, exacerbating global warming and harming the health of petrochemical workers and nearby residents.  Plastic is one of our ocean’s and our planet’s biggest threats, and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has a duty to protect us from it. But instead, the agency has FAILED to address the plastic crisis in any meaningful way, instead letting Big Plastic corporations and their friends in the fossil fuel industry recklessly put our oceans and our planet in harm’s way — all for the sake of profit. This World Oceans Day, we refuse to be silent and sit idly while Big Plastic and Big Oil’s corporate greed threatens our oceans and our planet. Will you take action today and stand with us to defend our oceans from rampant plastic pollution? Sign now to tell the EPA we demand federal solutions to the plastic crisis immediately! >> SIGN THE PETITION Thanks for having an impact with your voice today.  Friends of the Earth  Contact Us: Friends of the Earth U.S. Washington, D.C. | Berkeley, CA PO Box 7010 Merrifield, VA 22116-7010 1-877-843-8687 Contact us Learn more: www.foe.org/news www.foe.org/about-us www.foeaction.org Connect:

What just happened?

 

Friend, Republican senators just DEFEATED the Right to Contraception Act -- a simple bill that would have protected our right to basic contraception like the pill, IUDs, and Plan B. Republicans are woefully out of step with Americans on this issue. 90% of Americans feel it’s important that all people have the right to make their own decisions about when to use contraception and what method they use. That makes it one of the most popular issues in the country. So why did almost every Republican senator vote against it? Because this is where the Republican Party stands. It’s the Republican Party agenda -- and that’s why, today, almost every Republican senator voted against the right to contraception. This fight isn’t over. Soon, we will reach out about actions you can take to keep the conversation about contraception going and push for a House vote on the Right to Contraception Act. In the meantime, be sure to follow us on Instagram so you can stay up to date and spread the word. If you’d like to support our work, you can chip in right here. Thanks for being in this fight with us, Americans for Contraception

 

 

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Going Retrograde

JOYCE VANCE JUN 6

Today was an important day to be paying attention. In many ways, we seem to be going backward. Only our votes can ultimately change that.

Senate Republicans blocked a measure that would have created a federal right to contraception access today. That seems like it should have been noncontroversial. It’s 2024. But it was not. It failed to pass, with Republicans saying the legislation was both unnecessary and government overreach. I suppose it’s only unnecessary if you don’t care about the right to contraception going the same way as the right to get an abortion.

There you have it. The Republican Party no longer believes you have a right to contraception. The bill would have prevented the federal government or any state from enacting a rule that prohibited or even restricted the sale or use of contraception. Only two Senate Republicans didn’t vote against the measure.

Reporting cast this as a vote designed by Democrats to force Republicans to go on the record. To be fair, it was that, at least in part. There’s nothing wrong with that—we’re entitled to know where our elected officials stand on important issues, especially in an election year and when so many of them have a history of ducking constituent events. Senator Chuck Schumer went even further. “Today was not a show vote. This was a ‘show us who you are’ vote, and Senate Republicans showed the American people exactly who they are,” he said. A discharge petition was introduced in the House to try and force the bill to a vote, but that’s unlikely to happen.

Multiple studies have confirmed the positive impact contraceptive options have on women’s lives. Contraception access increases women’s educational attainment and earnings, according to a study by the Institute for Women’s Policy Research. Most importantly, contraception access decreases poverty and increases earnings. Kelly Jones, an economist with the Institute, wrote that “Decades of scholarly evidence makes an ironclad case that affordable contraception is key to women’s education and career opportunities. Policymakers must understand and respect the scientific evidence and ensure that all women, including those with low incomes, have access to the health care they need to live their fullest lives.” The Guttmacher Institute study details the social and economic benefits that accrue when women can determine when to have children, including the impact on preventing teen pregnancy and the correlation with education outcomes. Study after study documents the positives of access to birth control. Women will go back if that access is revoked.

Trump wants out from under the gag order in the Manhattan case, but the District Attorney opposes that move

Trump asked Justice Merchan to terminate the gag order that prevents him from talking about court and prosecution personnel, witnesses, and jurors. In a letter brief he suggested the gag order was no longer an appropriate restriction on his First Amendment rights, since the trial has ended.

Wednesday morning, the District Attorney’s office responded, asking the court to refrain from ruling now, so they could have the opportunity to brief the motion on the same timeline that applies to other post-trial motions, which would give Trump until mid-month to file his brief and the DA until the end of the month.

We know that since the verdict, there have been efforts to expose jurors, Michael Cohen, and his family to doxxing. None of those efforts are related directly to Trump, but the District Attorney, according to the letter submitted by the office, wants the opportunity to fully explain that the interests the court cited when it imposed the gag order “have not abated, and the Court has an obligation to protect the integrity of these proceedings and the fair administration of justice at least through the sentencing hearing and the resolution of any post-trial motions.” The District Attorney agrees to address whether any modification of the order is appropriate.

Last night, I wrote about Judge Aileen Cannon’s decision to hold a very unusual hearing on June 21. It’s unusual because she has scheduled oral argument from non-parties who filed amicus briefs on the issue of whether the appointment of Jack Smith as special counsel is constitutional. Today, we learned more.

As we noted last night, the District of Columbia Court of Appeals resolved this issue in 2019, finding that the appointment of Special Counsel Robert Mueller was constitutional. Although not binding on Judge Cannon, who sits in the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals, the decision has strong persuasive force, and it’s a unanimous, conclusive opinion—the court didn’t struggle to reach the result. No court has held or even seriously questioned the lawfulness of a special counsel appointment, across multiple appointments through the years. It’s fair for Judge Cannon to take an independent look, but it’s odd to ask for still more input from random non-parties who showed up with amicus briefs to express their opinion on this topic.

There is nothing wrong with a court accepting amicus briefs from non-parties, although it’s more unusual before a trial court than it is before an appellate court. Granting argument to non-parties, though, is exceptionally rare and usually reserved for a governmental entity that has a stake in litigation between private parties.

I’ve had arguments on entire motions that didn’t last for 30 minutes, but Judge Cannon has allotted that amount of time to each of the amici, almost as though she has nothing but time to spend in court—an odd approach for a Judge who recently complained she couldn’t even set a trial date because of the backlog of undecided motions. The Judge has scheduled the hearing for one full day and the better part of a second one, on a motion that she could just as easily, and correctly, have denied based on the briefs.

Judges aren’t required to hold oral argument on every motion that is filed. Most judges do so only if there are unanswered questions after they read the briefs that require further input from the parties. Judge Cannon has scheduled the first day to include argument from counsel, argument from amici, rebuttal from the parties, and any presentation of evidence “deemed necessary” by the court. It sounds like a recipe for delay.

Trump’s goal here is to dismiss the prosecution, arguing it was brought by an entity that wasn’t properly in place and didn’t have the constitutional authority to obtain an indictment. If Judge Cannon rules in Trump’s favor, the Special Counsel has an immediate right to appeal to the Eleventh Circuit. They probably have their notice of appeal prepared already in case that happens. It’s far more likely that Judge Cannon ultimately rules in their favor. But there will, again, be excessive, unnecessary delay, giving us new meaning of the phrase “justice delayed is justice denied.”

I still have not forgotten Justice Alito and the flags he tried to blame on his wife. He's the biggest beneficiary of the recent news cycle, which has knocked him off of the front burner. So, I wanted to share my own flag with you.

Here it is! To celebrate our second anniversary here at Civil Discourse, there’s swag! Mugs, tee-shirts, candles, and the flag. Click here to go to the store and get a 20% off discount or go to http:/www.civildiscoursestore.com and use code Civil20 at checkout.

Happy Anniversary to us!

We’re in this together,

Joyce