Frontline Reports: Even Ukrainians shocked! Russian 3rd Army launched a major MUTINY against Kremlin! Putin in trouble!

 

Even Ukrainians shocked! Russian 3rd Army launched a major MUTINY against Kremlin! Putin in trouble!

FOCUS: Michael McFaul | Lessons from the Mutiny in Russia for the War in Ukraine

 

 

25 June 23

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FOCUS: Michael McFaul | Lessons from the Mutiny in Russia for the War in Ukraine
Michael McFaul, McFaul's World
McFaul writes: "Maybe Putin is not so prone to escalation as we believed."

Maybe Putin Is Not So Prone to Escalation as We Believed

Since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, analysts and officials have claimed that Putin will never back down; that he needs a facing-saving win (i.e. Ukrainian territory) to end his war. U.S. officials also have decided to not give Ukraine certain weapons systems to prevent Putin from escalating.

Events yesterday undermined these assumptions. Putin talked tough in his national address. He sounded like someone preparing for a big fight. But when faced with the difficult decision of trying to stop Wagner mercenaries with major force, he backed down. In this game of chicken, we swerved off the road. He didn't escalate. He didn't need a face-saving off-ramp to declare victory. When facing the possibility of really losing to Wagner mercenaries coming into Moscow, he instead capitulated. Rather than doubling down with overwhelming force to crush the mutiny, Putin accepted humiliation instead. He was the rat trapped in the corner that so many Putinologists have told us to fear. But he didn't lash out & go crazy. He didn’t take the riskier path of fighting a civil war. He negotiated. Moreover, he cut a deal with someone he just hours earlier labeled a traitor. This decision made Putin look weak. We still do not know the details, but the compromises he made yesterday may even further undermine his grip on power at home. But he took that path anyway.

The lesson for the war in Ukraine is clear. Putin is more likely to negotiate and end his war if he is losing on the battlefield, not when there is a stalemate. Those who have argued that Ukraine must not attack Crimea for fear of triggering escalation must now reevaluate that hypothesis. The sooner Putin fears he is losing the war, the faster he will negotiate.

For American and other NATO leaders, the policy implications are also clear -- provide better and more weapons and better and more sanctions as fast as possible. That was true months ago as I wrote in Foreign Affairs in January. (You can read that essay here.) After the events in Russia yesterday, it’s even more true today.

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FOCUS: Kremlin Denies Putin Has Fled Moscow as Plane Mysteriously Disappears From Radar

 

 

24 June 23

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FOCUS: Kremlin Denies Putin Has Fled Moscow as Plane Mysteriously Disappears From Radar
Namita Singh, William Mata and Maryam Zakir-Hussai, The Independent
Excerpt: "Vladimir Putin's whereabouts have been thrown into question after an aircraft belonging to the presidency was spotted flying from Moscow to St Petersburg, according to Flight Radar."

Putin warns the rebels will be ‘brought to justice’ as Russia grapples with a ‘mortal blow’

Vladimir Putin’s whereabouts have been thrown into question after an aircraft belonging to the presidency was spotted flying from Moscow to St Petersburg, according to Flight Radar.

However, his spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, denied Putin has fled the capital and told reporters the president “is working at the Kremlin”.

Wagner’s armed rebellion is racing towards Moscow after the mercenary group’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin took control of the military headquarters in Russian cities Voronezh and Rostov-on-Don.

Prigozhin has said his forces have been attacked by artillery and helicopters since he launched his mutiny.

Putin said an “armed mutiny” by Yevgeny Prigozhin was treason and a “mortal blow” to Russia’s troops.

In an emergency televised address, the Russian president said anyone who had taken up arms against his military would be punished.

Prigozhin demanded Mr Shoigu and Russia’s top general Valery Gerasimov meet him in Rostov-on-Don, otherwise threatening to “blockade the city of Rostov and head for Moscow.”

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Wagner Group mercenaries. (photo: ABC)

Wagner Inches Closer to Moscow as Putin Vows to Stop 'Rebellion'
Robyn Dixon and Dalton Bennett, The Washington Post
Excerpt: "Forces led by Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin advanced in the direction of Moscow on Saturday, moving north from the Voronezh region to the Lipetsk region, which is roughly 250 miles from the Russian capital." 

Forces led by Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin advanced in the direction of Moscow on Saturday, moving north from the Voronezh region to the Lipetsk region, which is roughly 250 miles from the Russian capital. President Vladimir Putin, citing a threat to his nation, said he had ordered the military to quash the “rebellion” led by Prigozhin, who on Friday called for Russians to join a campaign against Russia’s military leadership.

Here’s what to know

• Late Friday, Prigozhin called for Russians to join Wagner’s campaign after claiming that a Wagner camp in Ukraine had been attacked “from the rear” by Russia’s military. He also said he would march on Moscow unless he could confront his enemies in Russia’s Ministry of Defense. The Defense Ministry denied the accusations in a Telegram post, and state media suggested video of the strike had been staged.


• Putin promised heavy consequences for the organizers of Wagner’s Saturday operation: “Everyone who deliberately embarked on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, chose the path of blackmail and terrorist methods — they will suffer inevitable punishment,” Putin said in a five-minute speech.


• Signs of anxiety were clear across Russia on Saturday. The mayor of Moscow told the public not to go to work Monday, declaring it a day off for all nonessential workers and asking them to stay home. Security was reinforced on main highways leading into Moscow, and residents in other areas were asked not to leave their homes. Meanwhile, flights out of Russia were selling out.


• Russian forces launched one of their biggest overnight missile barrages in weeks against Ukrainian cities early Saturday morning, firing about 51 cruise missiles and two self-destructing drones, Ukraine’s air force said in a Telegram post.

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Wagner mutiny: Putin vows swift retribution for 'treason’

 

Russia’s President is accusing Wagner mercenaries of treason and betrayal. In his address to the nation, Vladimir Putin vowed a swift response to the rebellion in the southern city of Rostov-on-don. And said Yevgeny Prigozhin’s group represents a threat to Russia’s internal security