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Sixteen former DOJ voting attorneys filed a brief in February against their old department. It sat public and got no national coverage—until today.
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Trump’s Judge Said No. Trump’s Congressman Lost. Trump’s Party Is 0 for 31.
Moms for Liberty lost Sarasota, a Trump appointee struck down a voting law, and 97 votes flipped a seat Republicans had held since 1999
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Even His Own Judge Said No
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In South Carolina, anyone 65 or older can vote by mail for any reason.
Everyone younger has to qualify first. If your reason involves work, the state makes you hand in a signed note from your boss along with your application, no later than eleven days before Election Day.
Now think about how you’d get that note—you’d have to ask your boss for it. And plenty of people work for a boss who wouldn’t take that well. Five voters under the age of 65 sued over it—and this week they won.
Three federal appeals judges unanimously struck the law down, including Julius Richardson, who Trump put on the bench. The judges noted the deadline doesn’t account for the real life of working people—like shift changes, sick children, or a car that won’t start.
Whatever South Carolina does next, it has to be the same rule for everybody. That’s the part it can’t get around. Five people put their names on a lawsuit, and now it’s a losing issue for Republicans either way.
The Moms for Liberty Stronghold Is No More
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Voters flipped control of the conservative-dominated school board in Sarasota County, Florida, on Tuesday. Megan Tennimon and Beth Mayberry won the two conservative-held seats. Tennimon won with 55% of the vote, and Mayberry, backed by the local Democratic Party, won with 57%.
Bridget Ziegler co-founded Moms for Liberty, the group that’s pushed for book bans in school districts across the country. She chaired this school board for years. She didn’t run for re-election this time, and neither did the other two conservatives on the board.
The board has five seats. Conservatives had three of them. Tennimon and Mayberry won two of those three on Tuesday, and the conservative majority was gone that night.
This was supposed to be their stronghold. On Tuesday, it collapsed.
97 Votes Flipped A 30-Year Republican Lock
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Democrat Brandon Dukes beat Republican Scott Timko by 97 votes, winning the special election on Tuesday to fill Pennsylvania’s 12th House District. The seat’s been red since 1999 and Trump won the district by 18 points in 2024. The Republican who held it won by an even larger margin of 30. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats in the area nearly two to one.
“We made history,” Dukes said to his supporters as the votes came in. He wasn’t exaggerating. Democrats now hold a 103-100 majority in the Pennsylvania state House. Provisional ballots are already counted, and the county confirmed no automatic recount applies.
Two-to-one on paper lost by ninety-seven votes on a Tuesday. November is coming.
Trump Dumped His Own Guy By Morning
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GOP Rep. Cory Mills lost his primary Tuesday in a Florida district Trump carried by 12 points. Trump waited less than a day to back someone else.
Mills spent his term under investigation by the House Ethics Committee and the Justice Department—over allegations that included sexual misconduct and domestic violence. NOTUS also reported discrepancies in his account of his military service.
Trump endorsed Mills in February and stayed silent through the investigations. The morning after Mills lost, Trump endorsed the man who beat him and added that he’d told Mills “to get out of the Race, but he wouldn’t listen.”
That’s at least ten candidates Trump backed who have already lost this cycle—as many as he lost in 2018, 2020, and 2024 combined. Good riddance.
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Florida Races Are Closer Than Folks Will Admit
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I lived in Florida and ran campaigns there for years. This is my read with 74 days to go.
The governor’s race is tight. A UNF poll in July had GOP nominee Byron Donalds up 46-41 over Dem nominee David Jolly. Stetson University had Donalds up 47-40. Now, across 18 surveys the average has Donalds ahead by only 3.9, in a state where DeSantis won by 19. And the newest poll of the race, a Democratic survey taken August 10-13, has Jolly ahead by a point.
Independents are the key. In that same UNF poll, Donalds leads unaffiliated voters by just a point. No one has a tight grip on that voting bloc yet, and that’s where the election will be decided.
Donalds has a ton of cash. He’s spent more than $50 million on this campaign already. Jolly raised around $1 million last quarter. Two billionaires alone wrote million-dollar checks to Donalds’ political committee. Jolly’s largest donors gave $100,000. National Democratic money will need to flow into Florida, but $50 million hasn’t bought Donalds a comfortable lead—he was up six in March, up five in July, and the newest poll has him behind.
The Senate race is tougher. A Stetson poll in the spring had sitting GOP Sen. Ashley Moody beating Dem nominee Angie Nixon 51-38. Moody has won statewide twice, both times for attorney general. She was appointed to the Senate seat, but this time she has to earn it.
Jolly and Nixon share a ballot, not the same platform. Jolly calls himself an old-school Republican, running as a Democrat. Nixon joined the Democratic Socialists this summer. I’m not sure if they’ll ever share a stage or turnout operation, but they’ll need to consolidate resources in order to have a shot.
The Bottom Line: Florida hasn’t elected a Dem governor since 1994. But 51% of likely Florida midterm voters now disapprove of Trump—in a state he won by 13 points. So don’t count it out just yet.
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Onward!
Scott
For the comments:
Sarasota: Is your school board next? Tell us what’s happening where you live.
Pennsylvania: Republicans outnumber Democrats there two to one. A Democrat won anyway. What does that tell you about November?
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COMMENTS:
That Pennsylvania win is wild — Republicans had a two-to-one registration edge and still lost by 97 votes. Feels like a preview
Democrats and Independents NEED TO GET OUT AND VOTE! No couch sitting this one out.
Last November in a purple PA district, we flipped every red seat to blue including one that had not been Dem since the civil war!! School board, sheriff etc. I think purple/swing voters are going for moderate Dems. I won’t bring up the threat to the Dem party of the socialist/communist party bec that is too depressing.
Forget the labels. Listen to what they hope to accomplish. Throwing the labels around as depressing is buying into Gop propaganda.
davidjollyfl
“The data centers have found their guy in the Florida Governor’s race. Truly remarkable Byron Donalds keeps taking money from them in this environment. It’s clear who he’ll fight for, and it’s not us.”
https://www.instagram.com/p/DaoZ3tvEVy-/
If you’re not familiar, Jason Garcia is an investigative reporter who follows the $$ in Florida politics.
https://jasongarcia.substack.com/p/billionaires-for-byron?
Thank you! Good to know someone is tracking Florida's political money!! And there it is Byron Donald is knee deep in AI Data Center Money!!! SHeesh! Go after that David Jolly!!!
Thanks for the info! I bet when we look into which candidates that the Tech Bros are financing, it will be with an AI Data Center wrapped into the deal! :-)
Scott, I live in Florida and share your opinion that the upcoming elections are not going to be as close as some anticipate. DeSantis is not as popular now as he was at the beginning of his term. It will be interesting to see where he ends up next January. I’m more optimistic about Jolly’s chances.
Same. I live just north of Tampa. And don’t count Angie Nixon out - who would have dreamed she would win that primary? SO glad I could vote for her!!
DeSantis should go hide under a rock.
DON'T JUST VOTE BLUE!
Make sure it's a candidate who supports YOU and TAKES NO AIPAC = ANTI-DEMOCRACY MONEY or ANONYMOUS DARK MONEY.
If you do a SEARCH of OPEN SECRETS with the CANDIDATE'S NAME, you can find out if there's SUPER PAC or DARK MONEY.
Just take a few minutes to do some research before voting for some BOOB! We've got enough BOOBS already!
NO MORE BOUGHT & PAID FOR SHILLS!
NEVER MIND THE MINDLESS GOP ATTACKS & LIES!
That's great that you flipped every seat to blue in your district. I do agree with both Maggie and Dancset though. We have to stop the divisiveness in the Democratic Party (regardless of what "kind" of Democrat they are). We have to unite to defeat Republicans, and as I like to say, "I'm watching what you DO, not listening to what you SAY."
MAGA MAGGOTS repeat VERBATIM talking points that they are fed - sound like mindless puppets which they are!
DEMOCRATS are MESSY! But that frequently leads to better suggestions, better ideas!
Disagreements and differing ideas can be constructive, lead to better solutions.
What you might perceived as divisiveness, but may not be that. There's also a corporate wing of DEMS that genuflect.
WE stopped contributing to the DNC when they blackballed those targeting INCUMBENTS - as you know, many of those INCUMBENTS should have been eliminated years earlier. (One that come to mind is CORRUPT HENRY CUELLAR who now genuflects to tRump due to his PARDON. DEMS rallied around him when there was an impressive replacement that could have won.)
WE have to work with the system we have - which means building on the DEMOCRATIC framework. (NO 3RD PARTY is a viable solution.)
MINNESOTA has a lengthy history of "SOCIALISM" that needs serious consideration - it was about making GOVERNMENT work inexpensively - making it work to SERVE constituents...look it up
Historical socialism in Minnesota began with the founding of the Socialist Party of Minnesota in 1899, which was active until it dissolved sometime after 1980. The party played a significant role in state politics, particularly during the early 20th century, and was involved in coalitions like the Farmer-Labor Party.
Wikipedia
Overview of Historical Socialism in Minnesota
Historical socialism in Minnesota is marked by the establishment and evolution of the Socialist Party of Minnesota, which significantly influenced the state's political landscape.
Founding and Early Years
Founded: 1899
Initial Name: Social Democratic Party of Minnesota (1899-1902)
Subsequent Names:
Public Ownership Party of Minnesota (1903-1913)
Socialist Party of Minnesota (1901-1980)
The party emerged from a split in the Socialist Labor Party of America, aligning with the American Federation of Labor and opposing the internal regime of the SLP.
Growth and Influence
Membership: The party saw rapid growth after 1905, becoming a significant force alongside similar organizations in other states.
Political Role: It participated in coalitions, notably with the Farmer-Labor Party, which attracted many former socialists.
Decline and Legacy
Dissolution: The party remained active until sometime after 1980, with its influence waning significantly after 1920.
Coalition Participation: Many former members transitioned to the Farmer-Labor Party, which became a major political entity in Minnesota.
Key Contributions
The Socialist Party of Minnesota played a crucial role in advocating for socialist policies and labor rights, shaping the political discourse in the state throughout the 20th century. Its legacy continues to influence left-wing politics in Minnesota today.
Wikipedia
Explore More
What were the key achievements of the Socialist Party of Minnesota?
How did the Farmer-Labor Party influence socialism in Minnesota?
What factors led to the decline of socialism in Minnesota after 1980?
The Scandinations have Social Democrats and our young generations are carrying that mantra. Let the government work for people because we are self governed by the people.
I love these. "Just the facts, Ma'am." No histrionics.
As for FL, where I live, your analysis is the common one: Trump won by X%, but... But you're forgetting that DeSantis is a train wreck. And polls are notoriously unreliable. Even the most esteemed pollsters say that. I AM sorry Nixon beat Vindman, who I thought was a better candidate, in the primary, but we'll have to see.
Stop destroying this country!!!!
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