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Morning Digest: Two governors struggle to avoid getting ejected by their own party
No sitting governor has been ousted in a primary since 2018
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Leading Off
RI-Gov, SD-Gov
Primary voters haven’t ousted a sitting governor anywhere in the country since 2018, but two chief executives—one from each party—are in danger of going down in defeat this summer.
Republican Larry Rhoden of South Dakota, who was elevated from lieutenant governor to the top job early last year when Kristi Noem resigned for her ill-fated stint in Trump’s cabinet, faces a challenging contest on July 28 to keep his new job. Rhoden faces wealthy businessman Toby Doeden, who led him last month in the first round of voting, in the first primary runoff for any office in state history.
Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee, meanwhile, is the underdog with two months to go before his Sept. 9 Democratic primary rematch against Helena Foulkes, a former CVS executive who came close to defeating him in 2022.
The last governor to lose a primary was Kansas Republican Jeff Colyer in August of 2018. Colyer, who was elected lieutenant governor twice on a ticket with Sam Brownback, had become governor just six months earlier after the extremely unpopular Brownback resigned to take a post in the Trump administration, and he struggled to defend his new office.
Colyer went on to lose a seven-way battle to Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement, by a slender 40.6 to 40.5 margin—a difference of just 343 votes. Democrats exulted over the GOP’s decision to nominate the fatally flawed Kobach, while Colyer then watched from the sidelines as Democrat Laura Kelly won the general election.
McKee almost met an identical fate four years later. The Rhode Islander similarly ascended from the lieutenant governor’s office in 2021 when Gov. Gina Raimondo resigned to join Joe Biden’s Cabinet, but he, too, drew multiple primary challengers. McKee, however, defeated Foulkes 33-30 in a five-person race before easily winning the general election.
Every publicly available poll, though, shows Foulkes far ahead in her second bout against McKee, who has spent his first full term hampered by numerous setbacks.
The governor’s problems include the long-delayed replacement for the Washington Bridge, a major traffic link in the Providence area that abruptly closed in 2023 after state officials declared it structurally unsafe. Foulkes has also highlighted the decision by the Pawtucket-based toy giant Hasbro to depart for Massachusetts last year to make her case that McKee is failing.
McKee has fought back by drawing attention to a 2024 lawsuit from the Department of Justice alleging that CVS exacerbated the opioid epidemic by filling illegitimate prescriptions for excessive quantities and dosages of the addictive painkillers. His argument, though, has struggled to break through. A recent poll from the University of New Hampshire showed Foulkes ahead 42-22.
Should those poll numbers prove prophetic, McKee would be the first elected governor to lose renomination since 2014, when Hawaii Democrat Neil Abercrombie fell to challenger David Ige 67-32 in the worst primary defeat for a sitting governor in American history.
But while there’s no question McKee is in poor shape, Rhoden’s standing with Republicans in dark-red South Dakota is less clear.
Doeden, who has portrayed himself as a conservative outsider, outpaced the governor 31-25 in the June 2 primary, which left the challenger just a few points short of the 35% he needed to win outright. Rep. Dusty Johnson finished just behind with 23%, while state House Speaker Jon Hansen brought up the rear with 21%.
Neither Johnson nor Hansen, though, has told their supporters which finalist they should support, and no one has released any polls of the runoff to gauge whether Rhoden or Doeden has the edge going into the second round.
Trump, for his part, has left his acolytes in suspense about whether he’ll take sides. Far-right influencer Laura Loomer gave Doeden some hope ahead of Trump’s July 3 speech at Mount Rushmore when she posted a picture with the candidate and wrote, “Maybe Trump will endorse this winner tonight.”
The night ended without Trump making any endorsement.
The Downballot Podcast
The Graham Platner debacle
Maine’s Senate race hangs in the balance following bombshell accusations by a woman named Jenny Racicot, who accused Democrat Graham Platner of raping her in 2021. As we recorded this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, Platner’s future was still up in the air, though he dropped his bid soon after. We brought on frequent guest host—and dyed-in-the-wool Mainer—Joe Sudbay to pore over the entire debacle.
We discuss all the red flags that brought us to this moment; the arrogant lack of vetting by those who recruited Platner; the mistakes made by Chuck Schumer and Janet Mills; Racicot’s bravery in coming forward; what Maine Democrats are doing to rectify the situation; and the party’s deep bench of potential replacement candidates.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also catch up on recent primaries in New York and Colorado, where candidates connected to the Democratic Socialists of America recently won a string of stunning victories. The Davids explain how DSA’s strategy is paying off, but they also emphasize that the simplistic “socialists vs. establishment” framework glosses over many other faultlines that impacted each of these outcomes. Incumbents everywhere, though, should take heed.
2Q Fundraising
MT-Sen: Seth Bodnar (I): $1.9 million raised
TX-Sen: James Talarico (D): $30 million raised
AZ-02: Jonathan Nez (D): $1.2 million raised, $1.9 million cash on hand
CO-05: Jessica Killin (D): $675,000 raised, additional $125,000 self-funded, $1.58 million cash on hand
FL-22: Pia Dandiya (D): $515,000 raised, $1.3 million cash on hand
FL-25: Jared Moskowitz (D-inc): $925,000 raised, $1.9 million cash on hand
TX-15: Bobby Pulido (D): $1.43 million raised, $1 million cash on hand
Senate
ME-Sen
Governors
NV-Gov
Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and his allies have had the airwaves essentially to themselves for the better part of a year, and it remains to be seen when Democrat Aaron Ford’s side will engage.
The Nevada Independent, citing data from AdImpact, reports that Republicans have spent $13.3 million on advertising since December of last year, compared to all of $77,000 for Democrats. The GOP’s campaign has included ads touting Lombardo’s time in office and attacking Ford, who serves as Nevada’s attorney general, for frequently traveling out of state.
There’s scant polling, though, to indicate whether Lombardo’s early offensive is having its desired effect. The last publicly available survey was a May internal poll for Ford that showed the governor ahead 45-42.
WI-Gov
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley announced Wednesday that he was dropping out of the Aug. 11 Democratic primary for Wisconsin’s open governorship. Crowley acknowledged that he’d struggled to gain traction in the busy race, writing, “It has become clear that I will not be the Democratic nominee for Governor.”
While Crowley did not initially endorse any of the five remaining Democrats, journalist Dan Shafer writes at The Recombobulation Area that he will back Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez on Thursday morning.
House
LA-05
Republican state Sen. Stewart Cathey announced Wednesday that he’d join the busy race for Louisiana’s open 5th District, a conservative constituency in the northeastern part of the state.
Cathey, who chairs the Senate’s influential Agriculture Committee, had initially planned to run for the 5th before his party redrew the congressional map. He backed down in February, though, after Donald Trump endorsed Blake Miguez, a fellow state senator whom Cathey mocked as a “clown.”
It remains to be seen, however, whether these two legislative colleagues will end up facing off in the Nov. 3 all-party primary after all. Miguez did not respond to the Shreveport Times’ inquiries about whether he’d continue his campaign for the 5th District or instead run for the 6th District, a Democratic seat that the GOP recently gerrymandered to ensure it would elect a Republican.
Mayors & County Leaders
Chicago, IL Mayor
Cardiologist Lisa Nee, a whistleblower who drew national attention to problems at the Edward Hines Jr. Veterans Administration Hospital a decade ago, announced Tuesday that she was joining next year’s race for mayor of Chicago.
Nee is the latest candidate to challenge incumbent Brandon Johnson, who has not announced if he’ll seek reelection after a difficult first term. While ABC7 writes that Johnson “widely expected to run,” the mayor told the station he still needs to “have a deeper conversation with my wife and those who are closest to me.”
Poll Pile
GA-Sen: Wick:
Jon Ossoff (D-inc): 47, Mike Collins (R): 43.
MI-Sen (D): Tavern Research:
Abdul El-Sayed: 41, Haley Stevens: 38, Mallory McMorrow: 5.
Stevens: 42, El-Sayed: 41.
McMorrow dropped out on July 5 but will remain on the ballot. The poll was conducted July 6-7 and asked respondents which of the three candidates on the ballot they preferred before asking about a head-to-head race between Stevens and El-Sayed.
GA-Gov: Wick:
Rick Jackson (R): 43, Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): 43.
NY-17: FM3 Research for House Majority PAC:
Cait Conley (D): 51, Mike Lawler (R-inc): 45.
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