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Morning Digest: How a GOP plan to elect judges could end abortion rights in Kansas
First, though, voters get to weigh in next month
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Note: The Downballot will be taking a short break for the Fourth of July. We'll be back in your inboxes on Tuesday. Have a wonderful holiday!
Leading Off
KS Ballot, KS Supreme Court
Kansas voters will decide on Aug. 4 whether to approve a Republican-backed amendment that would radically alter how justices are selected for the state Supreme Court—and potentially endanger abortion rights. With the election just a month away, both sides are now airing ads to get their message out.
“Right now, the Kansas Supreme Court is fair and impartial, because judges are qualified and voter approved,” says the narrator for Kansas United for Impartial Courts, a group urging a “no” vote.
The spot, though, warns of what would happen if the GOP’s amendment passes. The proposal would require that all justices be directly elected statewide starting in 2028.
“[J]udges will become politicians for sale,” predicts the narrator. “Billionaires will bankroll campaigns, and then push whatever laws they want.”
A rival organization, by contrast, argues that it’s time to turn back the clock and undo the state’s current method for appointing and retaining justices, which has been in place since voters approved it by a 60-40 margin in 1958 following a scandal.
“For 100 years, Kansans voted for our Supreme Court judges,” a spot Kansas Info Network Action Fund, which supports a “yes” vote, tells the audience. “But today, insiders and politicians pick our Supreme Court. Voters have no voice at all.”
Voters, however, do have a voice in deciding who sits on the seven-member court. The governor chooses one of three names provided by a nominating commission whenever there’s a vacancy. After a year in office, new justices face a retention election in which voters are asked simply whether they should be granted a full term. This process repeats every six years.
But Kansas Republicans, who hold every statewide elective office except the governorship, are not happy with this setup at all. The GOP supermajority in the legislature last year approved the proposed amendment to transform a body they’ve long distrusted or outright scorned.
Five of the current justices were appointed by either Gov. Laura Kelly or former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, her fellow Democrat, and Kelly will soon choose a sixth member to fill a vacancy. GOP Gov. Sam Brownback, who served between Sebelius and Kelly, selected the final justice.
The state’s highest court has, however, issued decisions that have left both parties frustrated. In 2022, for instance, the Supreme Court overturned a lower-court ruling that had struck down the state’s new congressional map as an illegal partisan and racial gerrymander.
Republicans, though, remain especially outraged at an earlier decision protecting abortion rights. In that landmark 2019 case, the justices agreed that the state constitution “includes the right to control one’s own body” and therefore “allows a woman to make her own decisions regarding her body, health, family formation, and family life—decisions that can include whether to continue a pregnancy.”
The GOP-dominated legislature infamously tried to overturn this ruling in August of 2022 by asking voters to amend the constitution to say that it “does not create or secure a right to abortion.” But while Republicans likely hoped that, by placing their amendment on the state’s summertime primary ballot, they’d benefit from low turnout, things didn’t go as planned.
The contest took place just six weeks after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, and supporters of reproductive rights made defeating it a major priority. Voters wound up turning out in large numbers to reject the amendment in a 59-41 landslide, a result that protected access to abortion at a time when nearby states were implementing near-total bans.
But Republicans are hoping that the Kansans who cast ballots next month will behave differently and allow them to reshape the court to their liking.
Like the failed abortion rights proposal, the amendment to require the direct election of justices will also appear on the August primary ballot rather than go before voters in the fall general election. The contest will take place as both Republicans and Democrats pick their nominees to replace Kelly, who cannot seek a third term as governor, though the GOP primary is more hotly contested.
If the “yes” side wins, lawmakers would have wide latitude over how judicial elections are conducted. Among other things, they could choose to require candidates to appear on the ballot with party labels next to their names, a move that would favor the GOP candidates in what’s long been a Republican-friendly state.
But Kelly, one of the few Democrats to win statewide office in the 21st century, hopes voters will make the matter moot. When the Kansas Reflector asked the governor her views on the amendment, she responded, “I’m adamantly opposed to it.”
2Q Fundraising
The second fundraising quarter of the year, covering the period from April 1 through June 30, has come to an end, meaning federal candidates must file campaign finance reports with the FEC by July 15. (Candidates for state and local office often file disclosures on different timetables.)
As per usual, though, campaigns eager to tout their hauls are sharing numbers early. We’ve gathered all such releases below and will continue to do so until just before the reporting deadline. After that date, we’ll release charts for all congressional incumbents and notable non-incumbents.
CA-48: Marni von Wilpert (D): $1.1 million raised.
FL-14: Kathy Castor (D-inc): $1 million raised, $1.3 million cash on hand
IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D): $2 million raised
IA-03: Zach Nunn (R-inc): $700,000 raised
MI-07: Bridget Brink (D): $630,000 raised, $1 million cash on hand
NY-17: Cait Conley (D): $1.6 million raised, $1 million cash on hand
Governors
KS-Gov
Allies of wealthy businessman Philip Sarnecki have launched an ad campaign targeting state Senate President Ty Masterson, Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate for Kansas’ open governorship, ahead of the busy Aug. 4 Republican primary.
“Connections, power, money,” opens the ad from a group called Kansas Comeback PAC. “After 20 years in politics, Ty Masterson has mastered this game.”
The spot goes on to accuse Masterson of providing “tax breaks for data centers” and of helping a donor who was later charged with bank fraud. It does not mention Sarnecki or any other candidates.
Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, meanwhile, this week secured the backing of the Kansas Farm Bureau, which has long been an influential voice in state GOP politics. The endorsement came after the group’s previous president, Joe Newland, resigned to become Schmidt’s running mate.
TN-Gov
In response to new ads from Rep. John Rose attacking Sen. Marsha Blackburn over her long career in politics, the senator’s allies are firing back with negative ads of their own as the two square off in next month’s GOP primary for Tennessee’s open governorship.
A spot from the Tennessee Freedom Fund charges that “China has their sights set on buyin’ up Tennessee farmland, but under Congressman John Rose’s watch, China purchased our land, hundreds of acres.” It then features a clip of Rose telling a radio station, “I wouldn’t say I’m gravely concerned about that.”
It’s not clear, though, why Rose would be any more culpable than Blackburn. The ad references a 2024 story from WATE reporting that a company with links to Chinese investors had bought 500 acres of farmland in Loudon County.
That county, though, is not in Rose’s congressional district, whereas Blackburn has represented the entire state in the Senate since 2019. (The radio clip, meanwhile, is from a 2022 appearance on 104.1—a year-and-a-half before the WATE report.)
Blackburn has enjoyed wide leads in every poll of the primary, but there hasn’t been any new data since April.
House
CA-14
Businesswoman Rakhi Israni, who took 13% of the vote last month in both the regular primary and the first round of the special election for California’s vacant 14th District, has endorsed BART board president Melissa Hernandez in both races.
In the June 2 primary, Hernandez finished a distant second to state Sen. Aisha Wahab, a fellow Democrat who led 38-17. Two weeks later, Wahab racked up a wider 43-17 advantage over Hernandez, triggering a runoff on Aug. 18 for the final months of former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s term.
Israni, who ran as a Democrat but came under scrutiny for her past donations to far-right figures like Laura Loomer, ended up in fourth place in the primary and third in the special.
LA-05, LA-06
State Rep. Gabe Firment just became the first Republican to join the race for Louisiana’s open 5th District following the adoption of a new GOP gerrymander in late May that dismantled the majority-Black 6th District.
Several notable candidates were already running for this district, though, including state Rep. Michael Echols and Louisiana Board of Regents chair Misti Cordell. The Shreveport Times also adds that state Sen. Stewart Cathey “is expected to announce his candidacy next week.”
But one prominent name has already switched races, and another might join him. State Sen. Rick Edmonds originally launched a bid for the 5th District, which is open because Rep. Julia Letlow is running for Senate, back in January, but at some point, his campaign site began identifying him as a candidate for the 6th. (Mostly, at least: The title bar still reads, “Rick Edmonds for U.S. Congress – 5th Congressional District.”)
That move did not seem to garner any media coverage, but another state senator who might do the same thing has drawn more attention. However, Blake Miguez, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement, has yet to say whether he’ll switch over to the 6th District. A key issue, the Shreveport Times explains, is whether Trump would “transfer” his endorsement to a new race—a question that apparently remains unresolved.
Meanwhile, the 6th District’s current representative, Democrat Cleo Fields, still has yet to say whether he’ll seek reelection, though he has until the Aug. 7 candidate filing deadline to decide. He’d face extremely difficult odds, though, if he does, as the overhauled 6th would have voted for Trump by a daunting 64-34 margin.
Ballot Measures
AZ Ballot
Activists who’d hoped to qualify an amendment that would have enshrined mail voting in the Arizona constitution announced on Wednesday that they would not submit their proposal. Instead, they said they would focus on fighting a Republican-backed amendment that would require voters who cast ballots by mail to present ID.
Operating under the banner of a group called Protect the Vote Arizona, organizers said they collected 439,000 signatures, but that gave them little cushion to meet the required target of 394,000 signatures following a mandatory review by election officials.
In a statement, Protect the Vote Arizona said it “remains committed to disqualifying the Arizona legislature’s democracy-eroding referral (HCR2001) in court,” but it does not appear that a lawsuit has been filed yet.
Poll Pile
AK-Sen: Siena University for the New York Times:
Dan Sullivan (R-inc): 47, Mary Peltola (D): 45.
GA-Sen: Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News:
Jon Ossoff (D-inc): 56, Mike Collins (R): 43.
IA-Sen: Siena:
Ashley Hinson (R): 48, Josh Turek (D): 46.
IA-Sen: Beacon/Shaw:
Turek (D): 50, Hinson (R): 46.
MI-Sen (D): Peak Insights:
Abdul El-Sayed: 39, Haley Stevens: 28, Mallory McMorrow: 18.
NC-Sen: Siena:
Roy Cooper (D): 50, Michael Whatley (R): 43.
OH-Sen: Siena:
Jon Husted (R-inc): 50, Sherrod Brown (D): 47.
GA-Gov: Beacon/Shaw:
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): 52, Rick Jackson (R): 47.
IA-Gov: Siena:
Rob Sand (D): 48, Zach Lahn (R): 47.
IA-Gov: Beacon/Shaw:
Sand (D): 53, Lahn (R): 44.
OH-Gov: Siena:
Amy Acton (D): 47, Vivek Ramaswamy (R): 47.
PA-Gov: MAD Global Strategy for Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future:
Josh Shapiro (D-inc): 48, Stacy Garrity (R): 31.
AK-AL: Siena:
Nick Begich (R-inc): 51, Matt Schultz (D): 39.
AZ-04 (D): FM3 for Greg Stanton:
Stanton (inc): 56, Kai Newkirk: 23.
NC-01: GQR:
Don Davis (D-inc): 45, Laurie Buckhout (R): 41, Tom Bailey (L): 8.
Feb.: 42-39 Davis.
TX-28: Pulse Decision Science for Tano Tijerina:
Tijerina (R): 46, Henry Cuellar (D-inc): 38.
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