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Good evening. Earlier this week, I wrote an 800-word article over at Wolves and Sheep, the Substack associated with Bowers News Media, presenting a data-driven argument about how Democrat James Talarico really can win the race for U.S. Senate in Texas this year. You can read that article here: "Four Concrete Reasons Why Democrats Really Could Win In Texas This Year." I also reprinted a shortened version of that article below this one. Tonight, I am writing to you because a new poll has been released that backs up my argument. In the first poll on the U.S. Senate race in Texas conducted since Ken Paxton won the Republican primary on Tuesday, James Talarico holds a three-point lead, 47%-44%. This poll is not a surprise. In fact, it is in line with the current polling average on the race, which shows Talarico ahead by 3.7%. These numbers are exactly what you should expect right now, given the partisan lean of Texas, the pro-Democratic national electoral mood, the low electability of scandal-plagued Republican Ken Paxton, and the relatively high favorability of Democrat James Talarico. All of those factors add up to--believe it or not--a narrow Democratic lead in Texas. This can happen. A Democrat really can win in Texas in 2026. The name of that Democrat is James Talairco. Please, split a $10 donation between James Talarico for Senate and Bowers Kerbel Media. This year, after decades of waiting and struggling, a Democrat can finally win in Texas. Just so you know, Bowers Kerbel Media is the two-person, pro-democracy and pro-Democratic organization that runs both the Bowers News Media news and activism email list and the Wolves and Sheep political analysis and practical life advice Substack. The amount you give to each entity on the page can be adjusted by clicking "customize amounts." No donation to Bowers Kerbel Media is required to donate to Jamaes Talarico. You can find out more about James Talarico, and support him directly, on his campaign website. Thank you for your time, Chris Bowers Founder, Bowers News Media Below, you can see the email I sent on this topic earlier in the week On Tuesday, May 19, Donald Trump-endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's secured a comfortable victory over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate. The, shall we say, "ethically challenged" Paxton will face Democratic nominee James Talarico in the general election. Texas is a crucial seat in the battle for control of the U.S. Senate this year, and the outcome of this election will go a long way toward determining which party has the majority next year. This is a seat that Democrats practically have to win. Given this, I wanted to use this email to present here four solid, quantitatively based, down-to-earth reasons why Democrat James Talarico has a realistic chance to defeat Ken Paxton in Texas this year: 1) Texas really is getting bluer, even if it still leans red. While Texas does still lean Republican compared to the nation as a whole, the degree to which it leans Republican really did meaningfully change sometime between 2012 and 2016. To show this change, using presidential election data from Dave Leip, I put together a quick chart showing the degree to which Texas has leaned Republican compared to the nation as a whole over the last six presidential elections:  Texas was about 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in the 2004-2012 presidential elections, but only 10-12 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in the 2016-2024 presidential elections. While that is not enough to declare Texas a swing state just yet, it does show that a sizable shift toward Democrats really has taken place in Texas (or, at least took place sometime between 2012 and 2016). 2) The national political environment is very good for Democrats in 2026. As of today, Democrats lead by about seven points, or possibly a little more, in the generic congressional ballot, which is the closest measure of national political sentiment in a midterm election year. You can see generic congressional ballot averages on websites such as Decision Desk HQ (Dems + 7.3), Silver Bulletin (Dems + 7.0) and Real Clear Politics (Dems + 7.7), among others. If Texas has swung toward Democrats by the same degree as the rest of the nation, given the 10-12 point Republican lean of Texas, that puts the base lead in Texas for an average Republican candidate running against an average Democratic candidate at somewhere around three to five points. Three to five points is a margin where things start to get interesting! 3) Ken Paxton is a bad candidate with a lot of baggage. Attorney General Ken Paxton is not an average candidate. He has been plagued by scandals during his nearly 20 years in the public eye, as a website called The Barbed Wire usefully chronicles. These scandals include federal securities fraud charges, an FBI investigation for bribery and abuse of office, lawsuits for firing whistleblowers, mortgage fraud allegations, being impeached in Texas by a coalition of Republicans and Democrats, and having a wealthy donor hire Paxton's mistress to a plum job. (No wonder Donald Trump likes this guy, am I right?) This long list of scandals, plus a negative approval rating and a negative favorability rating, provide good reasons to think that Ken Paxton will perform worse than an average Republican candidate in a general election. And keep in mind that, right now, an average Republican candidate in Texas only has about four points to spare against an average Democratic candidate. 4) James Talarico may be an above average Democratic candidate. It is admittedly difficult to know how well James Talarico will perform compared to an average Democratic candidate in a statewide election, since this is the first time he has ever run in one. However, there are clear signs that Talarico might perform better than your average Democrat:
Please, split a $10 donation between James Talarico for Senate and Bowers Kerbel Media. The stars may have aligned to finally make it possible to turn Texas blue. (Note: Bowers Kerbel Media is the two-person, pro-democracy and pro-Democratic organization that runs both the Bowers News Media news and activism email list and the Wolves and Sheep political analysis and practical life advice Substack. The amount you give to each entity on the page can be adjusted by clicking "customize amounts." No donation to Bowers Kerbel Media is required to donate to Jamaes Talarico. You can find out more about James Talarico, and support him directly, on his campaign website.) Thank you for your time, Chris Bowers Founder, Bowers News Media *** About Bowers News Media is a one-person, pro-democracy and pro-Democratic news and activism email list, run by me, Chris Bowers. I am a 22-year veteran of online progressive politics at Daily Kos, Open Left and MyDD. I write all of the emails myself, in an honest, measured, personal voice, citing all of my sources and avoiding exaggeration. I aim help you make a difference in the world without driving up your anger or fear. Further, I will always remain accessible to you by reading every single email you send me, and replying to many of them. Wolves and Sheep is a pro-democracy and pro-Democratic political analysis Substack run by Matthew Kerbel, a former political science professor of over 30 years at Villanova University. Matt brings you timely, outside the beltway analysis of our national politics, informed by history and social science, to help you make sense of what often feels like an out-of-control world. Together, we run Bowers Kerbel Media, a joint effort between Bowers News Media and Wolves and Sheep. Matt and I are old friends, and even wrote a book together a little over a decade ago. | ||
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