Thursday, April 25, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: How Arizona became the center of the political universe

 


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BY CHARLIE MAHTESIAN

Former President Donald Trump departs after speaking at a rally at the Canyon Moon Ranch festival grounds in Florence, Ariz.

Former President Donald Trump departs after speaking at a rally at the Canyon Moon Ranch festival grounds on Jan. 15, 2022 in Florence, Ariz. | Mario Tama/Getty Images

DESERT STORM — A half-century ago, when Joe Biden burst onto the national political scene as one of the youngest senators in history, Arizona was little more than an afterthought on the political map. With just six electoral votes and a post-war history of voting Republican, it paled next to California, New York and the Midwestern industrial giants that tended to elect presidents.

Today, as Biden stumps the country on his final campaign, Arizona occupies a very different role — something close to the hub of the 2024 political universe. It is one of seven swing states that will likely decide the presidency. It’s also the backdrop for two toss-up House races and a toss-up Senate contest that could determine control of Congress in November.

Week after week, the state produces more market-moving political action than almost any other.

The latest instance came Wednesday, when Rudy Giuliani, Mark Meadows, and a number of others who advised Donald Trump during the 2020 election were indicted in Arizona, along with the slate of fake electors who acted to keep Trump in power. Trump himself was named as an unindicted co-conspirator.

That jarring news followed on the heels of a landmark recent state supreme court ruling upholding a 160-year-old law outlawing abortions unless the patient’s life is in danger. That decision galvanized the abortion rights movement both in Arizona and elsewhere — not to mention turbocharging efforts to put a measure on the November ballot protecting the right to abortion in the state, a development which could have a material effect on the presidential contest.

With nearly 400 miles of shared border with Mexico, Arizona is also a flashpoint in the immigration debate that is at the top of voters’ minds — this year, the Border Patrol’s Tucson sector reported more border encounters than anywhere else in the Southwest.

Arizona’s emergence as one of the country’s most important political proving grounds is a fairly recent phenomenon, the effect of decades of relentless growth that have changed the state’s political complexion. When Biden was born in 1942, his hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania, had a population twice the size of Phoenix. Today, Phoenix is America’s fifth largest city and still growing.

There may be more changes in store: Biden’s industrial policy will be put to the test in Arizona, where his administration has made a multi-billion dollar investment in semiconductor manufacturing.

What’s certain is that the state, and in particular, Phoenix’s Maricopa County — home to more than 60 percent of the state’s voters — will play a pivotal role in November. How, exactly, remains to be seen. Biden was the first Democrat to win the presidential vote in Maricopa since 1948. But his victory there sparked a backlash on the right that has yet to dissipate — the county is arguably the western capital of election denialism.

It's another reason why, if you’re trying to understand the course of presidential politics, there’s no better state to watch this year.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie .

 

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TRUMP ON TRIAL

TRUMP TO PECKER: THANKS! — After he became president, Donald Trump threw a “thank you” dinner to celebrate David Pecker (the former CEO of American Media which published the National Inquirer), at the White House , Pecker testified.

On July 11, 2017, Pecker and some of his business associates traveled to Washington, where they met with Trump in the Oval Office and then had dinner. Trump initially invited Pecker and his wife, Pecker said, but encouraged Pecker to bring his friends and associates after Pecker said his wife wouldn’t be coming. “‘It’s your dinner,’” Trump told Pecker.

ALL ABOUT THE CAMPAIGN — David Pecker poked a hole in one of Donald Trump’s defenses by testifying that Pecker never thought Trump sought to have the potentially damaging stories buried for the sake of protecting his family .

“I thought it was for the campaign,” Pecker said. Asked why, Pecker replied that in his conversations with both Trump and Trump fixer Michael Cohen, Trump’s family “was never mentioned.”

During opening statements at the trial on Tuesday, Trump lawyer Todd Blanche argued that Trump “fought back” against Stormy Daniels’ allegations “to protect his family, his reputation, and his brand — and that is not a crime.”

CASH FLOW PROBLEMS — In November or December of 2016, David Pecker says he met with Michael Cohen at Trump Tower, where Cohen complained to Pecker that Trump hadn’t reimbursed him for the money he had paid Daniels and that he hadn’t yet received his Christmas bonus. Cohen asked Pecker to advocate on his behalf with Trump.

Pecker said he did so, telling Trump that Cohen is “very loyal.”

Then, on January 6, 2017, after Trump had become president-elect, Pecker went to Trump Tower again to meet with Trump.

When Pecker arrived at Trump’s office, James Comey, Sean Spicer, Reince Priebus and Mike Pompeo were there, updating Trump about a shooting that had just occurred. Trump introduced Pecker to each of them, telling them Pecker was the publisher of the National Enquirer, “and he probably knows more than anybody else in this room.”

“Unfortunately, they didn’t laugh,” Pecker said, drawing chuckles from the courtroom.

ON THE CROSS — During cross examination, defense attorney Emil Bove is attempting to drive home the point that David Pecker had long sought to promote positive stories about Donald Trump because it was good for business .

Likewise, Bove asked Pecker, “it was always your intention, dating back to the early days of this friendship, not to publish negative stories about President Trump?”

“Yes,” Pecker replied.

WHAT'D I MISS?

— Justices question ‘official’ vs. ‘private’ actions in Trump immunity case: The Supreme Court pressed an attorney for Donald Trump today about whether his expansive view of presidential immunity from criminal prosecution would enable absurd conduct — like accepting $1 million bribes for ambassadorial appointments or ordering the military to stage a coup. Trump’s lawyer, D. John Sauer, said that while the coup scenario “sounds bad,” it’s possible it would be immune from prosecution because commanding the military is “official” conduct of the president. The justices were focused during oral arguments on how to parse the difference between a president’s “official” and “private” conduct and whether special counsel Jack Smith’s indictment of Trump for seeking to subvert the 2020 election adequately distinguished between the two.

— FCC reinstates net neutrality: The Federal Communications Commission today revived Obama-era net neutrality rules , setting up another clash with the telecom industry and Republicans. The 3-2 vote along partisan lines is a victory for Democrats, who have pushed for this type of regulation for the last two decades and say it’s necessary for consumer protection, fair competition and national security. Don’t let transcription stop you in your tracks. Try Trint free today. The rules, which prevent broadband providers from blocking and throttling consumers’ internet traffic, were repealed in 2017 during the Trump era. The order also reclassifies broadband as a telecom service, as the 2015 rules did, expanding the agency’s authority to regulate internet networks. An earlier version of the rules was struck down by a court in 2014.

— White House declines Mike Johnson’s demand to call in the National Guard for college protesters: The White House today rejected Speaker Mike Johnson’s call to send the National Guard to quell pro-Palestinian protests at Columbia University, insisting that it’s up to state governors to first request such a move. “That is something that is under the governors,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters aboard Air Force One. “That is something for the governors to decide.”

NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

COLD HARD CASH Planned Parenthood affiliated groups in North Carolina today announced a $10 million campaign in the state that largely focuses on persuading people concerned about narrowing abortion access to vote in November.

The spend, according to representatives for Planned Parenthood Votes and Planned Parenthood Action PAC North Carolina, attempts to end both a GOP supermajority at the General Assembly that enacted new abortion limits last year and to defeat Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, who wants the law to become more restrictive.

The $10 million marks the largest campaign investment ever made by Planned Parenthood entities in North Carolina, Planned Parenthood Votes spokesperson Emily Thompson said.

STAR POWER — Vice President Kamala Harris will hold a roundtable discussion on criminal justice reform today with reality TV star and businesswoman Kim Kardashian , three people familiar with the gathering told POLITICO.

The event, which will take place at the White House, will feature four people who received clemency from the Biden administration yesterday, all of whom were convicted of nonviolent offenses.

“During her remarks, the Vice President will announce the finalization of a Small Business Administration rule that will remove most restrictions on loan eligibility that are based on the person’s criminal record,” said a White House official, who like the others was granted anonymity to discuss internal matters.

Kardashian became a proponent of criminal justice reform during former President Donald Trump’s administration when she visited the White House to push for several pardons and advocate for criminal justice legislation. Her star power lent credence to that cause but her proximity to Trump sparked some blowback among those critical of the former president’s broader record.

AROUND THE WORLD

French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe, in front of a slogan which reads "The end of a complicated Europe" in an amphitheatre of the Sorbonne University in Paris.

French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe, in front of a slogan which reads "The end of a complicated Europe" in an amphitheatre of the Sorbonne University in Paris today. | Pool photo by Christophe Petit Tesson

DEATH NOTICE — French President Emmanuel Macron warned today that Europe faces possible demise if it does not take bold action to tackle U.S. and Chinese protectionism, amid serious geopolitical threats from authoritarian regimes.

In a bleak and solemn speech delivered at the Sorbonne University in Paris that frequently returned to the theme of a fast-changing global order, Macron evoked the death of Europe as a real possibility.

The Continent under-invests in innovation, fails to protect its industries and boost its military and defenses, he said.

“Europe is mortal, it can die. It only depends on our choices,” he said in a highly-anticipated speech that echoed a landmark discourse he gave three months into his first term in 2017. “And these choices have to be made now.”

“In the next decade, the risk is immense that we will be weakened, even relegated,” he told an audience of officials, journalists and politicians, pointing to changing geopolitics and emboldened authoritarian regimes.

ATTACKING AID — Gaza-based militants launched mortar rounds on Wednesday at Israeli forces making preparations for the U.S.-led effort to establish a new maritime aid route for Gaza , according to two U.S. officials.

No American equipment was damaged as the U.S.-led project — which will establish a pier a few miles offshore as well as a causeway anchored to the beach to expand access to humanitarian aid — is not yet complete, said one of the officials. Both were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive plans.

But the attack came as U.S. military personnel were scheduled to soon begin construction of the pier, which the U.S. hopes will drastically expand the amount of aid that can reach the enclave. The Pentagon has said the project will be operational by the end of the month or early May, and U.S. military ships are standing by to start the work.

It’s not clear whether the militants knew what they were attacking, said the first U.S. official, adding that they may have simply seen a “target of opportunity” to strike the Israel Defense Forces.

 

POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2024 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCEPOLITICO will again be your eyes and ears at the 27th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles from May 5-8 with exclusive, daily, reporting in our Global Playbook newsletter. Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground covering the biggest moments, behind-the-scenes buzz and on-stage insights from global leaders in health, finance, tech, philanthropy and beyond. Get a front-row seat to where the most interesting minds and top global leaders confront the world’s most pressing and complex challenges — subscribe today .

 
 
NIGHTLY NUMBER

1.6 percent

The annual rate that the U.S. economy grew in the last quarter , a sharp slowdown in the face of high interest rates, though consumers continued to spend at a solid pace.

RADAR SWEEP

BREAKING IT DOWN Waxworms — which generally subsist on wax from honeycombs — don’t look particularly remarkable (in fact, they look kind of gross). But a few years ago, the molecular biologist Federica Bertocchini threw some of these worms into a plastic bag and left them alone for a few hours. When she returned to the worms, she noticed some holes in the bag. This sent her down a path of research that found that this specific type of worm can do something that humans have real trouble doing: Break down plastic . Letting these worms totally loose can be dangerous to ecosystems, but Bertocchini and other researchers are now hopeful that they can be part of the solution to the plastic pollution crisis. Francis Agustin reports for the BBC.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 1989: Students stand with a banner on the roof of the administration building at the City College of New York in Manhattan. Students barricaded themselves inside the building and vowed not to leave until Gov. Mario Cuomo, state legislators and school officials agreed to negotiate with them over planned budget cuts and tuition increases.

On this date in 1989: Students stand with a banner on the roof of the administration building at the City College of New York in Manhattan. Students barricaded themselves inside the building and vowed not to leave until Gov. Mario Cuomo, state legislators and school officials agreed to negotiate with them over planned budget cuts and tuition increases. | Reggie Lewis/AP

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