POLITICO NIGHTLY: Cash-flush GOP governors look to 2024

View in browser   BY DAVID SIDERS KOCH FUNDED PROPAGANDA!  DON'T BELIEVE IT! Presented by Americans for Prosperity Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. | Brandon Bell/Getty Images SPENDING SPREE — In statehouses across the country, an influx of federal money combined with tax revenues boosted by inflation have left state budgets in surplus . For Republican governors — especially those with an eye on 2024 — one big question is what, politically, makes sense to do with that cash. First on most GOP governors’ list is tax cuts. They’re popular with fiscal conservatives and, it would seem, a significant swath of voters who will turn out for the GOP’s presidential primary. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has promised “record tax relief in the upcoming legislative session ” going so far as to suggest — tapping into the latest, kitchen-appliance front in the culture wars — that Florida might say “no tax on gas stoves coming up this year .” In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott, who hasn’t ruled out a presidential run , is promising the “largest property tax cut in the history of the state .” Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, another potential presidential candidate, proposed $1 billion in additional tax cuts in his state last month. But Republican governors now have money to spend on some pet projects, too. In Iowa, Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, a potential vice presidential contender, earlier this month proposed letting parents use more than $7,500 a year in state money to pay for private school, a controversial voucher program that is now the focus of heavy debate in her state. Youngkin this month also focused on the education front, calling for funding for retention and performance-based bonuses for teachers , as well as $230 million for behavioral health services initiatives. One advantage a governor running for national office has is the ability to fund crowd-pleasing programs they can point to in an election year. Given what they’re spending on, Republicans are banking on education once again factoring heavily in the 2024 election year. And unlike other potential presidential candidates, a governor can do more than just say what they stand for. They will have a record to point to when they do. One big disadvantage for governors who open their wallets? Conservatives may not like it. Last week, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) sent a letter to state and local government officials urging them to return unused or unneeded Covid relief funds to the federal government to reduce the federal debt. Scott has said he’s not planning to run for president . But it’s easier to bash the Biden administration for its spending when you’re a legislator, as opposed to a governor with a budget to meet. Whatever Republicans do with the money, good times can fade in a second. State budgets fluctuate wildly, after all. California, which relies heavily on capital gains revenue, is proof of that. Just last year, the state enjoyed a $100 billion surplus. Now its Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, is proposing billions of dollars in cuts to balance a $22.5 billion budget deficit . It’s not just California. Plenty of economists think a recession is likely , and some Republicans are bracing for it. In South Dakota, where Republican Gov. Kristi Noem is proposing to eliminate the tax on groceries and also wants to expand paid family leave, Bill Napoli, a former Republican state lawmaker from Rapid City, said the governor — a potential presidential or vice presidential candidate — is “walking on eggshells.” “The only reason they have so much extra money is because the price of stuff has gone through the roof, and they’re making a bunch of money on it,” Napoli said. A governor looking at higher office “wants everything to sparkle,” he said. But if spending falls and tax revenues fall off, there will be political ramifications. In a downturn, governors won’t be enjoying headlines about program and service expansions. They’ll have to raise taxes, tap into reserves or, more likely, order unpopular budget cuts. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at dsiders@politico.com or on Twitter at @davidsiders .      KOCH FUNDED PROPAGANDA!       DON'T BELIEVE IT! A message from Americans for Prosperity: Dear 118th Congress: How will you be defined? Like those before you, will you be known for partisanship and political theater? Or, will you help solve the economic crises of our time? For too long, conventional wisdom has been that divided government is a free pass for gridlock. You can be the Congress that bucks that trend and makes life more affordable. Americans need you to succeed. Will you? Learn more at www.Dear118Congress.com.   WHAT'D I MISS? — Jan. 6 intruder who sat at Pelosi office desk convicted on all charges: Richard Barnett, who famously put his feet up on a desk in former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office as rioters swarmed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, was convicted by a Washington jury today of all eight charges he faced, including four felonies. Barnett, 62, was convicted of obstructing Congress’ Jan. 6 proceedings, a charge that carries a 20-year maximum sentence, as well as disorderly conduct in the Capitol while carrying a dangerous weapon: a “Hike ‘N Strike” walking stick that doubles as a stun weapon. He was also convicted of stealing an envelope from the desk in Pelosi’s suite. — U.S. hits Iran with fresh sanctions amid subsiding protests: The United States and its allies heaped more sanctions on Iran today, the latest effort to pressure Tehran’s Islamist rulers from the outside as they face lingering domestic unrest . The U.S. Treasury Department announced that the sanctions would target a foundation linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, five of its board members, four senior IRGC commanders and Iran’s deputy minister of intelligence and security. The action was coordinated with Britain and the European Union, the Treasury Department said in a news release. — Gallego officially launches bid for Sinema’s seat: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) announced he will run for Senate in 2024, potentially setting up a challenge with incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.). Gallego’s announcement comes amid Democratic frustration with Sinema’s opposition to key aspects of their agenda. The Arizona senator switched her party affiliation last month from Democrat to independent, though she is counted as part of the Democratic Party’s 51-seat Senate majority. Sinema has not yet said whether she’ll run for reelection, but a three-way general election clash with Gallego and a to-be-determined Republican candidate could become one of the most high-profile races across the country. — Dems ask watchdog to investigate IRS’s tardy audit of Trump: Democrats are asking a government watchdog to probe why the IRS didn’t adequately audit President Donald Trump despite its own guidelines and raising questions about potential political interference with the agency. Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.) and 14 other Democrats who were on the Ways and Means Committee when the circumstances surrounding Trump’s audit were disclosed want the Government Accountability Office to examine the long delay in auditing Trump under an IRS program that mandates the scrutiny of tax returns filed by every sitting president.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING : What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today .     AROUND THE WORLD Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at U.N. headquarters. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images NO-GO ON NATO — Sweden should not expect Turkey’s support for its NATO membership bid , Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said today following tensions over anti-Islam protests in Stockholm over the weekend, writes Wilhelmine Preussen . He said at a press conference that if Sweden does not show respect to Turkey or Muslims, “they won’t see any support from us on the NATO issue.” The statement follows protests against Turkey and in support of Kurds on Saturday in the Swedish capital, where anti-immigrant politician Rasmus Paludan, leader of the Danish far-right political party Hard Line, burned a copy of the Quran near the Turkish embassy. Ankara had already previously dragged its feet on pledging support for the accession bid, seeking conditions for approval such as the extradition of 130 political opponents from Sweden and Finland. Sweden has played down the dispute with Turkey over NATO accession, with Foreign Minister Tobias Billström saying in a TV interview on Sunday that the issues are nearly resolved and that Turkey is “close” to starting the ratification process, after he called the Quran-burning “appalling” in a tweet on Saturday. Sweden, together with Finland, decided to apply together for NATO membership in October last year. Hungary and Turkey are the only two countries that still need to ratify the joint NATO bid; Hungary last November pledged to do so. KOCH FUNDED PROPAGANDA! DON'T BELIEVE IT!   A message from Americans for Prosperity:     NIGHTLY NUMBER 59 percent The percentage of registered voters in New York who say they want George Santos, the embattled Republican from New York’s 3rd Congressional District to resign , according to a Siena poll released today. Only about 20 percent said he shouldn’t, and the rest didn’t have an opinion. A plurality of Republicans, 49 percent, said he should step down. Among suburban residents — relevant to Santos since he represents a suburban Long Island district — 71 percent said the newly elected representative should resign, compared to only 15 percent who said he should not resign. The survey of over 800 New York statewide registered voters was conducted between Jan. 15-19 and has a margin of error of 4.3 percent. RADAR SWEEP LIFE AS WE DON’T KNOW IT — There are wildly different terrains on Earth. If you’d never seen the globe before and were deposited into a rainforest and then moved to the top of a volcano, you’d be forgiven for thinking that these were two entirely different planets. The same might be true of extraterrestrial organisms. For decades, scientists have focused on finding climates similar to earth or organisms that look somehow familiar to us. But a researcher named Sarah Stewart Johnson believes that what “aliens” look like or what they inhabit might not even be conceivable to us . We might have to look beyond biology. Sarah Scoles reports for Scientific American.   JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE .     PARTING WORDS Former President Donald Trump at a Latinos for Trump Coalition roundtable. | File photo by Andrew Harnick ‘FOX NEWS IN SPANISH’ — Republicans have made notable inroads among Hispanic voters in recent election cycles. Now, a conservative media network is looking to cement and further those gains by trying to become the Fox News of Spanish-speaking America , writes Natalie Allison . Americano Media, which launched in March, is embarking on an aggressive expansion plan to shape center-right Hispanic opinion during the upcoming election cycle. The network has hired more than 80 Latino journalists and producers, are expanding their radio presence to television, and by the end of the year will have studios in Miami, Las Vegas and D.C. with reporters covering the White House, Congress and embedding in 2024 presidential campaigns. This month, Americano is launching a $20 million marketing campaign to draw in new viewers. It’s the latest development in an arms race to reach and win over the nation’s second-largest demographic group, one playing an increasingly critical role in election outcomes. “We don’t have a Fox News in Spanish, and that’s what Americano intends to be,” said the network’s CEO and founder Ivan Garcia-Hidalgo. He said he has listened to Hispanic Republican leaders lament for 25 years about the need for something like it, but no one ever took serious action. “There is an information war in Latino and bilingual communities in this country,” said Tara McGowan, the founder and publisher of the Democratic-aligned Courier Newsroom network, who has been vocal about the left needing to build new, progressive media outlets. “It’s a very smart and very alarming move by conservatives to double down on their investment in Americano Media.” Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .  KOCH FUNDED PROPAGANDA! DON'T BELIEVE IT!   A message from Americans for Prosperity: Congress at a Crossroads: Americans are facing a cost-of-living crisis. Divided government can’t be an excuse to do nothing. The 118th Congress can drive a policy agenda to make life more affordable by reining in spending to get inflation under control, cutting red tape to bring down energy costs, and expanding opportunities for fulfilling work. But to do that, Washington needs to rise above the political dysfunction to get things done. Americans can’t afford to wake up two years from now to a country on the same path. Learn how we can change course at www.Dear118Congress.com.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Katherine Long @katherinealong Ari Hawkins @_AriHawkins   FOLLOW US

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