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We’ve got another primary (and runoff, and special election) night coming up tomorrow, so that means we’ve published another preview of all the top races. While free subscribers get a small sneak peek, only paid subscribers like you get access to our complete election night guide.
Thank you for the generous support that makes our work possible.
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The Downballot team
Marquee runoffs will once again test Trump's influence over the GOP
Officer-holders endorsed by Trump face serious headwinds from outsiders
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The power of Donald Trump’s blessing will once again be tested in multiple races on Tuesday, as voters in Alabama and Georgia head back to the polls for runoffs while Oklahoma and Washington, D.C., hold their primaries.
While Trump has weighed in on behalf of many candidates, it’s a pair of high-profile statewide contests where his choices face the greatest headwinds, thanks to the emergence of two insurgent candidates.
Nowhere is that more true than in Alabama’s Senate race, where Trump gave his backing to Rep. Barry Moore all the way back in January. But the congressman nonetheless finds himself locked in a difficult battle against a political newcomer.
In Georgia, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones likewise received an endorsement from Trump long ago—all the way back in August. But billionaire Rick Jackson has endeared himself to the MAGA base by positioning himself as an outsider.
In addition to the states above, California is holding an election for its vacant 14th Congressional District. Oklahoma and California will stage runoffs in August if no one clears a majority, while D.C. will use its brand-new ranked-choice voting system for the first time.
Below, you’ll find our guide to the top races to watch on another coast-to-coast election night. When it’s available, we’ll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each contest, but if we don’t mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
And as always, please join The Downballot on our private Discord server to discuss the election returns with fellow community members as they come in on Tuesday night, starting at 7 PM ET when polls start to close in Georgia.
Alabama
Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time.
AL-Sen (R) (65-34 Trump)
Rep. Barry Moore, Trump’s pick for Alabama’s open U.S. Senate seat, is locked in a surprisingly unpredictable primary runoff against Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson.
Moore, one of the most notorious election deniers in the House, finished a strong first last month with 39%, while Hudson took second with 26%. But Hudson, who is campaigning as a conservative outsider, is hoping Moore will be vulnerable in a year that’s already seen GOP voters reject seven House incumbents who wanted a promotion.
Hudson and his allies are also arguing that Moore, who served in the Army National Guard, falsely suggested that he’d served in combat overseas. Moore has pushed back by insisting he’d “never claimed to be” in combat, while his allies have sought to link Hudson to Democratic donors.
Pollsters disagree on which man has the advantage for the GOP nomination, which is tantamount to victory in this dark red state. One survey conducted shortly after Memorial Day gave Hudson a 10-point advantage, while another poll done just days later showed Moore with a comparable lead.
Georgia
Polls close at 7 PM ET.
GA-Sen (R) (50-48 Trump)
Rep. Mike Collins faces Derek Dooley, a former University of Tennessee football coach backed by Gov. Brian Kemp, in the Republican nomination battle to face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.
Collins outpaced Dooley 41-30 last month, while Rep. Buddy Carter, who finished in third with 25%, did not back either finalist. Collins, though, earned a far more influential—albeit very late—endorsement from Trump.
Collins has spent the contest as the frontrunner even after he suffered a self-inflicted wound just days into the second round when a top aide mocked rape allegations against former NBC News host Matt Lauer by the wife of a pro-Dooley operative. Collins quickly fired the staffer responsible for the post but was still engulfed by days of negative headlines stoked by his opponent.
Collins, though, seemed to weather the storm, as a survey from JMC Analytics showed him beating Dooley 55-39 at the end of May. No reliable polling has been released in the ensuing weeks, however.
GA-Gov (R) (50-48 Trump)
Lt. Gov. Burt Jones will find out if Trump’s ardent support, plus a last-minute endorsement from Kemp, will be enough to stave off Rick Jackson, a wealthy health care executive who has poured massive amounts of his own money into both his primary and runoff efforts.
Jones led Jackson 38-34 in May, with Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr well behind with 15% and 11%, respectively. Carr went on to endorse Jackson and appeared in ads for him, while Raffensperger has remained neutral.
The winner will face former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who won the Democratic nomination outright, in the general election to replace Kemp, who cannot seek a third term.
GA-11 (R) (61-38 Trump)
Physician John Cowan is going up against former congressional aide Rob Adkerson in the GOP runoff for the seat that Rep. Barry Loudermilk, Adkerson’s biggest supporter and former boss, is not seeking reelection to.
While Cowan’s last campaign in 2020 ended with a high-profile loss to none other than Marjorie Taylor Greene in a neighboring district, he has reason to feel better about his chances this time. Cowan led Adkerson 43-22 in the first round, and he’s used his wealth to decisively outspend his opponent in the runoff.
Cowan has run ads arguing that voters in Atlanta’s northwestern suburbs and exurbs shouldn’t be represented by a “swamp creature” like Adkerson. Adkerson has hoped to overcome this by highlighting Cowan’s old tweets criticizing Trump.
GA-SoS (R & D) (50-48 Trump)
Both parties are holding runoffs to pick their nominees in the race to replace Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger as Georgia’s top election administrator.
The Republican side is a choice between state Rep. Tim Fleming, a former chief of staff to Kemp, and former state Rep. Vernon Jones, a longtime conservative Democrat who switched parties in 2021. Fleming led with 39% last month, while Jones took second with 27%.
Jones has campaigned as an ardent election conspiracy theorist, saying at one debate, “I stand with those who believe there was election fraud” in 2020. Fleming has likewise spoken about “irregularities” that year even as he insisted he was “not running on conspiracy theories.”
The Democratic candidates are former Judge Penny Brown Reynolds and Fulton County Commissioner Dana Barrett, who are trying to flip a post Republicans have held for the last two decades. Reynolds led 42-35 in the primary, and Sen. Raphael Warnock went on to endorse her for the runoff.
GA-LG (R & D) (50-48 Trump)
Democrats and Republicans are both hosting runoffs in the contest to succeed Burt Jones as lieutenant governor, an influential post whose occupant sets much of the agenda in the state Senate.
The Republican finalists are former state Sen. John F. Kennedy (his middle name is Flanders), a one-time Senate president who has touted his experience in office, and state Sen. Greg Dolezal, who has generated attention with Islamophobic ads. Kennedy finished the first round with a small 27-23 advantage.
Democrats are choosing between state Sen. Josh McLaurin and Nabilah Parkes, a former colleague who said she was motivated in part by her disgust with Dolezal’s attacks on the community she’s part of. McLaurin led by a narrow 41-39 last month, and both Warnock and Ossoff have endorsed him for the second round.
GA Public Service Commission (R) (50-48 Trump)
Republicans will select a nominee to defend an open seat on the Public Service Commission, the powerful five-person body that regulates utilities, at a time when Democrats are trying to take control of the board.
Power plant engineer Joshua Tolbert took 47% last month, which was just a few points shy of the majority he needed to win the GOP nod outright, while businessman Bobby Mehan was far back with 31%. The winner will go up against Angelia Pressley, who secured the Democratic nomination in round one, in the fall statewide contest.
Democrats need to both flip this seat, which GOP incumbent Tricia Pridemore gave up to wage a failed campaign for Congress, and reelect Democratic Commissioner Peter Hubbard to win control this fall. The Democrat is in for a rematch against former Commissioner Fitz Johnson, who barely won his primary in May after losing to Hubbard in a landslide in last year’s special election.
Hubbard recently appeared on The Downballot podcast to discuss his race, including the issues—like soaring utility bills and unwelcome data center construction—that are motivating voters.
GA State Senate District 7 (special) (56-42 Harris)
Democrat Adrienne White would normally be the favorite to defeat Republican Aizaz Shaikh in the special election to replace Nabilah Parkes, who resigned in March to focus on her campaign for lieutenant governor. Democrats, however, fear that Republicans will turn out in disproportionate numbers for their U.S. Senate and governor runoffs and allow Shaikh to pull off an upset.
This seat, which includes part of Gwinnett County outside Atlanta, will be on the ballot again this fall for a new two-year term, no matter what happens on Tuesday. This contest, though, is taking place just one day before the start of a crucial special session devoted to redistricting, and Democrats want to avoid strengthening the GOP’s already sizable Senate majority.
Shaikh will be the GOP nominee again in November, but White is running only in the special election for the remainder of Parkes’ term. The two candidates seeking the Democratic nomination for the full term, attorney Rahul Garabadu and state Rep. Ruwa Romman, likewise did not campaign in the special.
Oklahoma
Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff on Aug. 25.
OK-Sen (R) (66-32 Trump)
Sen. Markwayne Mullin ended his reelection campaign after Trump tapped him as Homeland Security secretary in March, but Oklahoma Republicans did not get the packed Senate primary they may have anticipated.
Rep. Kevin Hern emerged as the favorite even before Trump endorsed him, and the congressman only faces four little-known primary opponents. Hern is all but assured to replace Sen. Alan Armstrong, whom Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt appointed to serve as a caretaker during the remainder of Mullin’s term.
OK-Gov (R) (66-32 Trump)
Nine Republicans are running to replace Stitt, who is termed out, and there’s little question that this contest will be decided in a runoff.
Former state Sen. Mike Mazzei, who served as Stitt’s budget secretary, spent most of the race looking like a minor player, but he started to gain traction as 2026 progressed. It was still a huge surprise, though, when Trump endorsed Mazzei last month, a decision that makes him a favorite to grab a runoff spot.
Attorney General Gentner Drummond, by contrast, has long been the frontrunner in the contest to replace Stitt, with whom he’s frequently come into conflict. A different Drummond antagonist, however, may pose a bigger obstacle to his advancement: While the Club for Growth hasn’t endorsed anyone, its network has aired ads portraying Drummond as anti-Trump.
Former House Speaker Charles McCall and Chip Keating, another one-time member of Stitt’s administration and the son of former Gov. Frank Keating, are also jockeying for a place in the runoff. Five other candidates are on the ballot, but they’ve generated little attention.
A JMC poll taken shortly after Trump endorsed Mazzei placed him ahead with 26%. That survey also showed Drummond in second with 21%, as McCall and Keating deadlocked with 12% apiece.
The eventual nominee will likely take on state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson, the Democratic frontrunner, in one of the most Republican states in the nation.
OK-01 (R) (60-38 Trump)
Trump has also waded into the busy race to replace Rep. Kevin Hern in the 1st District, a longtime GOP stronghold in the Tulsa area.
Trump’s pick is Jackson Lahmeyer, an evangelical pastor who has become a prominent far-right figure in Oklahoma in the four years since he unsuccessfully challenged Sen. James Lankford for renomination. Lahmeyer also has benefited from close to $500,000 in outside support from the Club for Growth.
The frontrunner, though, was the subject of unwanted scrutiny the weekend before the election when the Daily Mail, a British tabloid, reported that he’d sent sexual messages to a former Miss Oklahoma USA and that his wife had discovered the relationship last month. Lahmeyer responded by acknowledging he’d “cross[ed] a boundary line through text messaging” even as he blasted what he called a “distorted story.”
Eleven other Republicans are on the ballot, and several of them appear to have a shot at snagging a spot in the likely runoff.
Two of those candidates, state Rep. Mark Tedford and businessman Nathan Butterfield, have loaned their campaigns about $1 million each, which has given them a major financial edge over Lahmeyer and the rest of the field.
The GOP lineup also includes former congressional aide Jed Cochran, state Corporation Commissioner Kim David, businessman Todd Woods, and several other contenders who have struggled to raise money.
Washington, D.C.
Polls close at 8 PM ET.
All primaries with three or more candidates are conducted using a ranked-choice ballot. Voters rank candidates in their order of preference, and if no one takes a majority, the last-place candidate gets eliminated and has their votes reassigned to their voters’ next preferences.
Election officials say they intend to release ranked-choice tabulations by June 21 for all ballots that have been counted by then, with final results on or close to June 26.
Washington, D.C. Mayor (D) (90-6 Harris)
Councilmember Janeese Lewis George and former Councilmember Kenyan McDuffie are the frontrunners in the seven-person Democratic primary. The winner is all but assured to replace Mayor Muriel Bowser, who is not seeking a fourth term as leader of the nation’s capital.
Every poll has shown Lewis George, a self-described democratic socialist who has come into conflict with Bowser, leading McDuffie, who is closer to business groups. Bowser has repeatedly made her preference for McDuffie plain even as she insists she’s not endorsing him.
One D.C. resident who will not be voting in the Democratic primary is also making his feelings known about the contest. Trump said during the last week of the contest that if Lewis George wins, ”[M]aybe we’ll take back Washington and run it on a federal basis.” Both leading candidates were quick to condemn Trump’s threat, which would require congressional approval to carry out.
Washington, D.C. Delegate (D) (90-6 Harris)
Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton, 89, is not seeking reelection after years of scrutiny about her physical and mental health, and five fellow Democrats are campaigning to become only the third person to ever serve as the capital’s nonvoting member in Congress.
The only poll released this year found Councilmember Robert White, who unsuccessfully challenged Bowser for renomination in 2022, with a 38-21 lead over Brooke Pinto, a colleague on the Council of the District of Columbia. That poll, conducted a month before the primary, showed former congressional aide Trent Holbrook, D.C. Education Board member Jacque Patterson, and former DNC member Kinney Zalesne each with single-digit support.
The candidates are more aligned ideologically than in the mayoral primary, though there are still differences between the frontrunners. White has often criticized Bowser from the left, while Pinto is closer to the mayor.
California
Polls close at 11 PM ET / 8 PM local time.
CA-14 (special) (66-30 Harris)
Eleven candidates are facing off in the special election to replace former Rep. Eric Swalwell, a Democrat who resigned in disgrace in April after multiple women accused him of sexual assault, in a Northern California constituency based in the East Bay. If no one wins a majority of the vote, then the top-two contenders, regardless of party, would advance to a runoff on Aug. 18.
The special is taking place just two weeks after a pair of Democrats, state Sen. Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez, the president of the board for Bay Area Rapid Transit and a former mayor of Dublin, advanced to the general election for a full two-year term. Wahab secured first with 38%, while Hernandez defeated Republican Wendy Huang 17-13 for the second slot. All three women are running again in Tuesday’s special.
Note that the special election will take place in the version of the 14th District that was last used in the 2024 elections, while the fall general election will use the new map Democrats drew last year to counter Republican gerrymandering in Texas. The lines did not change much, though, as approximately 90% of the residents of the old 14th District also live in the new version of this constituency.
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