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By Max from UNFTR.com
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This article reflects the author's opinions, commentary, and analysis, published in the exercise of First Amendment rights. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher. This content is provided for informational purposes and to contribute to public discourse.
SpaceX just hit the Nasdaq at a $2+ trillion valuation, making it one of the most valuable companies in the world. We need to unpack this word — VALUE — which has apparently lost all meaning. We also need to address what this company actually is, because it is not what you’re being told.
You can watch the Max’s video report on this story by clicking here.
And most importantly, we need to acknowledge that we just handed an immigrant from South Africa an unlimited war chest to continue destroying the very government that made him the wealthiest person on the planet.
Before we get into the mechanics of this preposterous IPO — one that broke every rule of public offerings to enrich Elon Musk and his cadre of early investors, many of whom are also hell-bent on the destruction of U.S. democracy and the rule of law — let’s talk about value.
SpaceX opened at $135 a share on June 12th, 2026. Its current valuation puts it well above $2 trillion — making it more valuable than Amazon.
For comparison sake, SpaceX had $18.67 billion in revenue last year, and LOST NEARLY $5 BILLION. Amazon posted net operating income of around $80 billion on more than $700 billion in revenue. And yet in Bizarro America, SpaceX is more valuable than Amazon.
Wall Street has a long tradition of twisting itself in knots to justify fantastical valuations. And in SpaceX’s case, the logic is fundamentally flawed — and built on lies. But the value proposition, in spite of those lies, comes down to two things: upside potential, and the fear of betting against someone who’s done it before.
When Tesla went public, it quickly gained a valuation that topped every major American automaker combined — despite being a fraction of their size and also losing money. It became an investment juggernaut. So for a lot of people on Wall Street, this is a case of once bitten, twice shy. They missed the Tesla rocket ship, and they are NOT missing this one.
But the bigger upside driver isn’t rockets. It’s AI. Elon has promised to transform SpaceX into the leading AI company in the world.
Here’s the thing — SpaceX is currently DEAD LAST in the AI race. Grok, its flagship AI product, ranks fourth globally behind ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude. And Grok’s primary claim to fame, per a Common Sense Media study, is generating nearly 6,700 sexually deviant image requests per hour. By design.
And yet, somehow, people think Elon is at the cutting edge of artificial intelligence.
He wasn’t even in the game until relatively late. According to Ronan Farrow’s reporting in The New Yorker, Musk had to be convinced by others that AI was the only path to the computing power necessary to someday leave the planet. That’s what brought him in — not a genius insight, but a conversation. He needed someone to sell him on AI.
But nobody’s talking about that when they’re buying SpaceX at a $2 trillion valuation.
Let’s look at what SpaceX says it’s worth — and where it says it’s going — because the math here is, as I like to put it, fascinating. And by fascinating I mean impossible.
In its S-1 prospectus, SpaceX claims a Total Addressable Market — what Wall Street calls a TAM — of $28.5 TRILLION. They literally described it as “the largest actionable total addressable market in human history.” For reference, the entire nominal GDP of the United States is approximately $29 to $30 trillion. So SpaceX is telling you that it intends to capture a market roughly the size of the ENTIRE U.S. ECONOMY.
Got it.
Here’s how they break it down. The Space segment TAM: $370 billion. Connectivity — meaning Starlink: $1.6 trillion. And then AI — the big enchilada — $26.5 trillion. That’s 93% of their total projected market. And we just established that they are last in the AI race.
We did a deep dive into these numbers over at UNFTR and when you look at the actual revenue picture, it gets even more illuminating. SpaceX’s Space segment generated $4 billion in revenue last year and lost $657 million doing it. And that segment grew just 7.6% from the prior year. Compared to every other tech company this is terrible.
Connectivity — Starlink — is the only business actually making money: $11 billion in revenue, $4.4 billion to the bottom line. And AI? SpaceX spent $9.5 billion building Grok and the AI segment, and brought in $3.2 billion in revenue.
The average revenue for a company in the Nasdaq 100 is somewhere between $30 and $35 billion. SpaceX is at $18.67 billion, growing slowly in its core businesses, bleeding in others, and its only profitable division is a satellite internet company. But it’s now more valuable than Amazon.
The only independent valuation that made any sense came from Morningstar, which put SpaceX’s fair value at $780 billion — or 56% below the IPO price. Oh, and one-fifth of SpaceX’s total revenue comes directly from the federal government. We’ll come back to that.
Before we get to what this company truly is, let’s establish something that should be front and center in every single conversation about Elon Musk — the man is a product of government subsidies.
According to a Washington Post investigation, Musk and his companies have received at least $38 billion in government contracts, loans, subsidies, and tax credits over more than two decades. Two-thirds of that came in just the last five years. In 2024 alone, federal and local governments committed at least $6.3 billion to Musk’s enterprises — a record high.
SpaceX has received over $22 billion in government contracts. NASA alone has paid SpaceX nearly $15 billion for crew transport, supply missions, and the lunar lander program. The Pentagon has kicked in $7.6 billion more.
Tesla’s story is just as telling. It received a critical $465 million Department of Energy loan in 2010 — money that kept it alive long enough to build the Model S. It has generated $11.4 billion — roughly a third of its total profits — from selling regulatory credits established by government clean energy policy. Democrat’s’ clean energy policy, by the way. And Tesla buyers received an estimated $3.4 billion in federal tax credits before that program wound down.
SolarCity? Same story. Built on federal renewable energy credits.
And then there’s DOGE. Elon didn’t just benefit from the government — he created NEW grant opportunities for himself while dismantling the agencies he was supposed to be auditing. The prospectus itself lists U.S. government revenue as one of SpaceX’s largest single revenue drivers.
So when he says he wants to cut government spending, what he means is: he wants to cut your government spending.
This is NOT a space company
Here’s what I really want you to understand. SpaceX is not a space company. SpaceX is a SPAC COMPANY. So much so that the “e” in Space might just be a typo.
A Special Purpose Acquisition Company, or SPAC is essentially a shell company designed to raise a massive war chest from Wall Street so it can go out and buy other companies. It’s a vehicle for consolidation. And everything about how SpaceX was structured and taken public points directly at this.
Many financial market observers — including institutional investors who bought into the offering — have been pretty open about the real reason they’re in: they expect SpaceX to absorb Tesla. Elon controls both companies. Combining them under one umbrella, one balance sheet, one Elon pocket — it’s not a theory. It’s an obvious next move. If you liked Tesla, you have to like SpaceX, because they’re going to be one company.
Now look at the mission statement. SpaceX says it intends to “build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.” That’s not a paraphrase. That is literally the company’s stated mission. And 93% of its projected revenue is supposed to come from AI and orbital data centers that DON’T EXIST and may never exist.
Their own prospectus says, “Several of our anticipated market opportunities, including certain AI, orbital, lunar, and interplanetary transportation and industrial activities, are still emerging and evolving or do not currently exist, and such markets may not develop as we expect, or at all.”
But here’s where it gets truly criminal in spirit, if not yet in law.
This IPO would never have gotten off the ground under normal regulatory conditions. Because the SEC — under the leadership of the administration that Elon helped install — looked the other way while two sets of rules were quietly rewritten.
First: the Nasdaq changed its bylaws. On May 1st, 2026 — conveniently timed for SpaceX’s June listing — Nasdaq enacted what it calls a “Fast Entry” rule. Under the old rules, a company had to season for at least three months before joining the Nasdaq 100. Up to a year in some cases. And it needed a minimum 10% public float.
Under the new rules: top-40 companies by market cap can enter the index in just 15 trading days. Float minimum? Eliminated.
SpaceX floated roughly 5% of its total shares — an artificially tiny slice designed to create scarcity and drive up the price. Under the old rules it couldn’t have entered any major index. Nasdaq literally rewrote the rules so SpaceX could get in — and Musk made early Nasdaq-100 inclusion a condition of listing on the exchange in the first place. Nasdaq complied.
What does Nasdaq-100 inclusion mean for you? It means that every ETF, every index mutual fund, every passively managed retirement portfolio that tracks the Nasdaq-100 is now required to hold SpaceX. So if you have a 401k that includes an index fund with any exposure to Nasdaq, congratulations — you are invested in SpaceX whether you want to be or not. Passive flows into the deal were estimated at nearly $50 billion.
Second issue: the lockup period. Standard IPO lockups keep insiders from selling for 180 days — the idea being that executives and early investors have to live by the company’s performance instead of cashing out immediately. SpaceX used a staggered lockup schedule. Many early investors — sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East, members of the so-called PayPal Mafia — can begin selling 20% of their stakes at the very first quarterly earnings call, which is soon. Elon’s own lockup is longer, but early investor exit liquidity was essentially baked in from day one.
They changed the rules and Trump’s SEC allowed it.
Now let’s talk about what we’ve actually done here. Because beyond the IPO mechanics, beyond the accounting tricks and the rule changes and the mission statement about extending the light of consciousness to the stars — we just handed one man an essentially unlimited war chest.
Elon Musk contributed over $200 million to the 2024 election. Analysts subsequently determined that roughly 115,000 votes in key swing states may have determined the outcome. Did Musk’s money make a difference? You tell me. But here’s the scale: $200 million now represents about two-hundredths of one percent of his net worth.
What are we doing?
With the capital raised in this IPO, Musk can now acquire dozens — scores — potentially hundreds of companies. He can buy his way into AI dominance even if he never builds a data center in orbit. He can own and reshape entire industries. We have already seen what his vision of AI looks like through Grok. It’s unsavory and unstable. But we’ve given him the means to own the whole board.
And let’s be very clear about something. Elon Musk has NEVER run a company that turned a profit on its own merits. Not once.
He was kicked out of PayPal before it turned a profit — and the reason he was pushed out was that he refused to implement basic protections against money laundering. He did not create Tesla. He invested in it with money from the PayPal windfall, took control, then spent years spinning lies about its viability — and without the renewable energy tax credits established by Democrats, and without Trump locking out better-made, less expensive foreign EV competitors, Tesla doesn’t have the profit picture it has today. His solar company didn’t make money. The one car he personally designed — the Cybertruck — became the worst-selling vehicle of its class, giving the Edsel a run for its money. His Boring Company is the laughingstock of American infrastructure, loses money, and the projects it does complete only happen because it skirts local regulations. Now he has a space company that also loses money.
Put all of that together and you get the richest man in the world.
Make it make sense.
Elon Musk exists because the system is broken — and thrives specifically on the parts of it that still work. He is a creature of government subsidies. He is, by the way, technically an illegal immigrant — he overstayed a student visa and worked without authorization in 1995, according to reporting by The Guardian and The Washington Post. In the world he’s spent the last several years trying to create, he would have been deported. And as for the upside potential for the American taxpayer who built this monster? He moved to Texas specifically to avoid state income taxes, so you’re out of luck on that front too.
We are now in a position where we can no longer afford for the worst businessman in the country to fail — and all of this was made possible by the leadership of the other worst businessman in the country.
It’s a scam. It’s barely three-card monte, because all the cards are jokers.
For deeper dives into economic and socioeconomic stories, visit UNFTR.com or @UNFTR on YouTube. Make sure to sign up for the FREE weekly UNFTR newsletter here.
SOURCES / CITATIONS
Washington Post: “$38 billion in government contracts, loans, subsidies, and tax credits”
Morningstar: SpaceX fair value estimate of $780 billion
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/spacexs-ipo-filing-big-spending-big-losses
SpaceX S-1 Prospectus: TAM claims, risk disclosures, revenue figures
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
UNFTR Deep Dive on SpaceX IPO financials
https://www.unftr.com/blog/the-spacex-ipo-fraud - Article
- Video
The New Yorker: Musk and AI https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/08/28/elon-musks-shadow-rule
The Guardian / Washington Post: Musk visa reporting
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/oct/26/elon-musk-illegal-immigration
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