Tuesday, November 21, 2023

POLITICO Nightly: California’s looming power outage

 


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BY CHARLIE MAHTESIAN

Presented by

The Coalition to Protect America's Regional Airports

Tony Cardenas speaks to the press.

Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Calif.) speaks to members of the media following a meeting with President Joe Biden on April 25, 2022. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo

BRAIN DRAIN — Another day, another congressional retirement. Today, California Democratic Rep. Tony Cardenas announced he won’t be running for reelection, bringing the number of House members who are either retiring or seeking other office up to 30.

In the battle for control of the House, his retirement doesn’t mean much: He represents a solidly blue San Fernando Valley-area district where three out of four voters cast ballots for Joe Biden in 2020. But his departure is symptomatic of a bigger problem facing California — it’s waning clout in Washington.

The decade began with a significant blow to the state — for the first time since achieving statehood in 1849, California’s slowing growth led to the loss of one House seat in reapportionment.

Even with 52 members, California still has the largest congressional delegation in the House — 40 Democrats and 12 Republicans. But the retirements of Cardenas and Rep. Grace Napolitano, and the departures of Reps. Katie Porter, Barbara Lee, and Adam Schiff, who are seeking the state’s open Senate seat, represent a collective loss of nearly 90 years of legislative experience.

The brain drain — so far, all Democrats — isn’t likely to end there. We’re still not through prime retirement announcement season, which essentially runs until the end of January, after members spend time with their families over the holidays. And there are as many as 10 competitive seats in California next year, a handful of which are considered toss-ups. That means — at a bare minimum — roughly a tenth of the California House delegation in the next Congress will be first-termers who are learning the ropes in an institution where seniority matters.

That’s not ideal for a big-state delegation that is already pretty green — 15 of the 52 current members were elected in 2018 and after.

Under current Republican House rule, the blue state’s clout was already diminished — and that was before former Speaker Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield was ousted in October. Today, there are no Californians in GOP leadership and the state holds no committee chairmanships. While the power of committee chairs has been in decline for years, a chairmanship remains a powerful asset for protecting and advancing state interests — rank-and-file members alone can’t match their role in policymaking or the distribution of federal spending.

California still fields the largest and most dominant bloc in the Democratic Caucus. That will come in handy in the event the House flips in 2024. But former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is in the twilight of her career and the top Californian currently in leadership, Rep. Pete Aguilar, only holds the third-ranking position. It’s true that California boasts the top ranking Democrat on three committees, but two of them are 75 years or older.

Compare that circumstance to the beginning of the Obama era, when the Golden State was unquestionably the top dog in a Democratic-controlled Congress, led by then-House Speaker Pelosi and four House committee chairs. In the Senate, the state had two powerhouse senators who served for decades, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer.

At the moment, California has two relatively junior senators — Alex Padilla, who was appointed in 2021 and won his first full term last year, and Laphonza Butler, who was appointed last month. Since she has announced she is not running for a full term next year, she’ll be replaced by another Senate rookie.

The recent spate of House retirements are part of a broader national phenomenon — Cardenas was the 10th member of the House or Senate this month to announce they’re hanging it up, the second-most in any one month going back at least as far as 2011. It’s welcome news to the legion of ambitious politicians back in California, who are typically piling up in a holding pattern awaiting the next big political opportunity. But it’s not so great for the nation’s most populous state to be a weakling in Washington.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie Programming note: Nightly will be off for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, Nov. 23 and Friday, Nov. 24. We’ll be back in your inboxes on Monday, Nov. 27.

 

A message from The Coalition to Protect America's Regional Airports:

DCA is at capacity and can’t accommodate more flights. That’s why a bipartisan majority of House members voted against bringing more flights to the airport as part of the FAA Reauthorization bill. In the past, more flights at DCA have worsened noise, congestion, delays, and cancellations. Doing so again risks exacerbating these issues and severely overburdening DCA. Don’t be fooled – the evidence shows that DCA is at capacity and can’t handle any more flights.

 
WHAT'D I MISS?

— Federal appeals court ruling threatens enforcement of the Voting Rights Act: A federal appeals court issued a ruling today that could gut the Voting Rights Act , saying only the federal government — not private citizens or civil rights groups — is allowed to sue under a key section of the landmark civil rights law. The decision out of the 8th Circuit will almost certainly be appealed and is likely headed to the Supreme Court. Should it stand, it would mark a dramatic rollback of the enforcement of the law that led to increased minority power and representation in American politics.

— New York House GOP sees fundraising void without McCarthy cash: Kevin McCarthy made the campaign cash flow as House speaker. His successor Mike Johnson will be playing catch-up for a while. And for vulnerable New York Republicans with tough reelection battles, the difference is stark . More than $1.8 million had been raised by McCarthy-associated committees versus just $12,000 by Johnson-affiliated ones for Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro, Brandon Williams and Nick LaLota, according to federal filings reviewed by POLITICO.

— Biden talks turkey — then pardons them: Joe Biden spent his 81st birthday the only way a president would want to, really: pardoning turkeys and telling jokes . “By the way, it’s my birthday today. I just want you to know, it’s difficult turning 60,” Biden said today at the annual Thanksgiving turkey pardon. This year’s presidentially spared birds hail from Minnesota. In classic Biden fashion, however, there was a Pennsylvania connection, too. This year’s flock of turkeys were named Liberty and Bell.

 

Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here .

 
 
NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

DEBATE DATES — The nonpartisan, nonprofit group that has conducted debates for the past nine presidential elections is plowing ahead with four events next year , despite Republicans’ promises to boycott, reports POLITICO.

The Commission on Presidential Debates announced the dates and venues for three presidential debates and one debate between the candidates’ running mates today, beginning on Sept. 16 and ending on Oct. 9. The presidential debates will take place in San Marcos, Texas; Petersburg, Virginia; and Salt Lake City, Utah; with the vice presidential debate in Easton, Pennsylvania.

LOOSENING UP — A federal appeals court panel appeared poised to significantly narrow a gag order imposed against Donald Trump by the judge presiding over his Washington, D.C. criminal trial, reports POLITICO.

The three-judge D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals panel raised concerns that the order — which bars Trump from targeting witnesses, prosecutors and courthouse staff in the criminal case related to his effort to subvert the 2020 election — created murky restrictions that stifled the former president’s right to push back against his detractors, particularly in the heat of a presidential campaign.

Judge Patricia Millett, an appointee of President Barack Obama, suggested the gag order could amount to a straitjacket for Trump if his prosecution became the focus of attacks during a presidential debate.

“He has to speak ‘Miss Manners’ while everyone else is throwing targets at him?” Millett said skeptically during a two-hour oral argument at the federal courthouse in Washington. “It would be really hard in a debate, when everyone else is going at you full bore. Your attorneys would have to have scripted little things you can say.”

 

A message from The Coalition to Protect America's Regional Airports:

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AROUND THE WORLD

Now-president elect of Argentina Javier Milei of La Libertad Avanza during a rally at Movistar Arena on Oct. 18, 2023 in Buenos Aires.

Now-president elect of Argentina Javier Milei of La Libertad Avanza during a rally at Movistar Arena on Oct. 18, 2023 in Buenos Aires. | Tomas Cuesta/Getty Images

UNCHARTED TERRITORY — Right-wing populist Javier Milei resoundingly won Argentina’s presidency Sunday , swinging the country to the right following a fiercely polarized campaign, reports the Associated Press.

The fiery freshman lawmaker’s victory has thrust the country into the unknown regarding how extreme his policies will be following a campaign in which he revved a chainsaw to symbolically cut the state down to size.

With almost all votes tallied, Milei handily beat Economy Minister Sergio Massa, 55.7% to 44.3%. Milei won all but three of the nation’s 24 provinces, and Massa conceded even before the electoral authority began announcing the preliminary results.

Milei, 53, a libertarian economist, started to outline some of his planned policies this morning. He said in a radio interview that would quickly move forward with plans to privatize state-run media outlets he received negative coverage from during his campaign and which he deemed “a covert ministry of propaganda.”

A self-described anarcho-capitalist with a disheveled mop of hair, Milei made his name by furiously denouncing the “political caste” on television programs. His pledge for abrupt, severe change resonated with Argentines weary of annual inflation soaring above 140% and a poverty rate that reached 40%.

Once in office, he has said he would slash government spending, dollarize the economy and eliminate the Central Bank as well as key ministries, including those of health and education.

 

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

Over $1.2 million

The amount of money that a new crypto-focused super PAC has pumped into television ads supporting House candidates over the last two months. The group, Fairshake, could become a key vehicle for the crypto industry to insert itself into the 2024 elections in the coming year and is backed in part by Brian Armstrong, the CEO of the largest U.S. crypto exchange, Coinbase.

RADAR SWEEP

HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU — What happens when a group of Philip Roth scholars and admirers descends on the American author’s birthplace of Newark, New Jersey, for what would’ve been his 90th birthday? It’s a particularly interesting scene in the wake of questions and recriminations about Roth’s legacy, in the wake of a 2021 biography that was pulled from a major publishing house after allegations of grooming and assault from Roth’s biographer. But the conference, chronicled by Hannah Gold in Harper’s Magazine, also has Gold wondering about questions far beyond news about Roth — what kind of person is drawn to Roth? Is it better to read him to an audience or can he only be properly understood in a hotel room or on a subway bench? What do his compulsions teach us about his fans, and vice versa?

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 1984: Fans attend Michael Jackson's Hollywood Walk of Fame ceremony.

On this date in 1984: Fans attend Michael Jackson's Hollywood Walk of Fame ceremony. | Nick Ut/AP

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A message from The Coalition to Protect America's Regional Airports:

DCA is at capacity. Even so, reckless efforts to bring more flights to DCA may force the airport to accommodate 12.6 million passengers beyond what it was designed to handle, without any regard for the airport’s physical constraints, safety, and passenger convenience. The experts agree this is a bad idea – the Federal Aviation Administration estimates that just 20 more round-trip operations per day can increase delays by 25.9%. Keep travel safe and efficient for all – say NO to more flights at DCA.

 
 

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Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie

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