Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Warren's mystery challenger JULY 25 SPECIAL ELECTION

Monday, July 17, 2023

POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Warren's mystery challenger JULY 25 SPECIAL ELECTION

GET A CLUE — Democratic circles are buzzing after an online poll hit phones over the weekend testing a mystery candidate against Elizabeth Warren.

The senator’s would-be challenger hasn’t held elected office before, has experience “creating jobs and housing” and is likely a Democrat, according to screenshots of the survey shared with Playbook and posted online.

Democratic insiders and business leaders have their guesses as to who’s behind the poll. Some folks who fit the bill denied their involvement to Playbook. Warren’s team also said it’s not her survey. Her campaign has polled recently, according to a $36,000 payment to Beacon Research on June 29 listed in her latest campaign finance filing. But her spokesperson wouldn't disclose the results.

One of the mystery poll’s main charges against Warren: that she hasn’t done enough to support Joe Biden, in part by voting against the debt deal.

It’s a curious argument given that Warren has advised the president on policy and her protégés proliferate in his administration . She’s also on the national advisory board for his reelection campaign. And she was just on WBUR on Friday praising the president's latest step to cancel student loan debt. “No better ally or more effective partner in delivering progress with @joebiden than @ewarren,” Ron Klain, Biden’s former White House chief of staff, tweeted over the weekend.

President Joe Biden exits Air Force One with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., as they arrive at T.F. Green International Airport, Wednesday, July 20, 2022, in Warwick, R.I. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) | AP

Running against Warren would be tough. The second-term senator polls well. Big-name Democrats eyeing higher office have already sworn off challenging her . She launched her reelection campaign with the support of Gov. Maura Healey, Sen. Ed Markey, Rep. Ayanna Pressley and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu. And she’s got $3.3 million in the bank.

“Senator Warren has secured major policy wins for Massachusetts families,” a spokesperson for the senator told Playbook in a statement. “She is working hard for every vote, taking nothing for granted.”

But Warren isn’t invincible. She did finish third in the state’s last presidential primary, after all. A self-funding candidate or someone connected to the deep-pocketed business community could give the senator a run for her money.

Still, even that could be difficult: Warren raised $1.2 million over the past three months without a serious opponent. And big self-funders like Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca, who poured nearly $7.8 million into his 2009 U.S. Senate run, and Shannon Liss-Riordan, who spent more than $9 million on her state attorney general bid last year, saw little return on their investments.

GOOD MONDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. House Speaker Ron Mariano is leaving the door open to a tax-relief deal that doesn’t slash the short-term capital gains tax rate.

Mariano was asked on WBZ’s “Keller @ Large” whether it was “acceptable” for a plan to emerge from conference committee without the 7 percent cut to the short-term capital gains tax rate that Healey and the House proposed and the Senate did not.

“Well, it depends what other things are in the compromise that we reach,” Mariano said. But, he added, “the competitive issues [are] something that we have to deal with” and Massachusetts remains an outlier on taxing short-term capital gains.

A spokesperson for Mariano later told Playbook the speaker is “leaving the door open to whatever compromise comes out of conference committee” and that he isn’t involved in the negotiations. Passing a tax package without a capital gains cut would, of course, be a blow to the governor

TODAY — Healey, Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll and Rep. Lori Trahan announce Workforce Success grants at 1 p.m. at Greater Lawrence Technical School. Healey and Driscoll hold a roundtable with farmers impacted by flooding at Deerfield Meadows Farm at 4:15 p.m. Warren tours Cape Abilities at 11:30 a.m. in Hyannis.

Tips? Scoops? Are you behind the poll or know who is? Email me: lkashinsky@politico.com .

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DATELINE BEACON HILL

— STORMY AT THE STATE HOUSE: House Speaker Ron Mariano ’s noncommittal answer on capital gains adds to the uncertainty clouding Beacon Hill as tax and budget talks continue in private and House and Senate Democrats clash over gun legislation in public.

Mariano told reporters last week he’s eyeing “three or four” ways to ram through new gun regulations before the traditional August break, with or without the Senate’s cooperation.

Senate Democrats now say they’re willing to hold a public hearing on gun legislation this week — as long as it’s before the Public Safety Committee (not the Judiciary Committee, as the House wants) and also includes the 47 firearms bills sitting before that panel. But that ignores the dozen or so gun bills that are moving through the Judiciary Committee.

Amid all this back and forth, Mariano insisted on WBZ that his relationship with Senate President Karen Spilka isn’t “poor.” He waved away any characterizations otherwise as “conjecture” that comes with the start of a new session.

But Mariano had some sharper words for Auditor Diana DiZoglio , who is examining legal options for compelling lawmakers to comply with her audit of the Legislature.

“She's free to do whatever she wants," Mariano said. "But I know there are a lot of other programs I'd rather spend money on than a court fight with the auditor."

— “Sound of backfire: Local gun owners rap proposed Mass. law,” by Kinga Borondy, Telegram & Gazette.

— “Lawmakers call for TikTok ban on government devices,” by Christian M. Wade, Gloucester Daily Times.

MIGRANTS IN MASSACHUSETTS

— “Under strain, the state hopes locals will open their homes to support newly arrived immigrant families,” by Gabrielle Emanuel, WBUR: “The state is seeking people to host newly arrived families in need of shelter. The host families are asked to provide a room or apartment for a few days, until longer-term accommodations are arranged. … ‘This has previously been a practice among Resettlement Agencies and other volunteers who work to support new arrivals,’ said Karissa Hand, press secretary for the Healey administration, in a statement.”

— “State shelter program struggles to keep up with arrivals from Haiti, other countries,” by Stephanie Barry, Springfield Republican: “Leaders of [central and western Massachusetts] cities say they are frustrated with the Executive Office of Housing and Economic Development, which began sending migrants to the region last year with vows of capping their arrival at locally manageable numbers, then sending dozens more without notice.”

FROM THE HUB

— “After car crash, Councilor Lara ‘hopeful’ about reelection chances even as rumors about her housing situation swirl,” by Emma Platoff and Danny McDonald, Boston Globe: “Embattled Boston City Councilor Kendra Lara, under fire after a June 30 car crash revealed glaring violations in her driving history — including that she has been driving despite not having a valid license in a decade — said in an interview with the Globe Friday that she is ‘hopeful that my constituents will send me back to City Hall to represent them.’”

— BUT, BUT, BUT: “Boston councilor Kendra Lara loses out on city union endorsement amid controversy,” by Gayla Cawley, Boston Herald: “The Boston Presidents’ Committee of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, endorsed Lara in the 2021 general election, but opted to back one of her opponents, William King, this time around.”

— MORE: “Boston tightens up parking procedures for city councilors amid Kendra Lara fallout,” by Gayla Cawley, Boston Herald: “City Council President Ed Flynn said elected officials who do not submit an application form that requires proof of a valid driver’s license, vehicle registration, and insurance information by end of day on Friday, July 21, ‘will have their access denied to the executive garage by Property Management.’”

— “New Boston City Council map appears set after redistricting lawsuit resolves,” by Emma Platoff, Boston Globe: “In a document filed Friday in federal court, attorneys for the groups and residents who sued the city last year over its new map of City Council districts agreed ‘not to challenge’ the new version of the map passed by the council and signed by the mayor in May.”

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THE RACE FOR CITY HALL

— “Candidates compete in special election for Beacon Hill council seat,” by Emma Platoff, Boston Globe: “Voters in City Council District 8 will choose July 25 between 32-year-old Sharon Durkan — a political fund-raiser who has worked for Michelle Wu, Senator Edward J. Markey, and Councilor Ruthzee Louijeune, among others — and 43-year-old Montez Haywood, who has spent over 17 years in the district attorney’s office, where he’s focused on everything from domestic violence to asset forfeiture.”

— “A Cambridge City Council employee decided to run for a seat herself. Then the city changed its rules,” by Matt Stout, Boston Globe: “Shortly after [Adrienne] Klein, a council aide, decided to launch her campaign, city officials enacted a new policy forcing any council employee to either resign or go on unpaid leave while running for elected city office, arguing that doing both could create the appearance of a conflict of interest.”

FROM THE 413

— “Will voters break the tie in the West Stockbridge Select Board race on Monday?” by Heather Bellow, Berkshire Eagle: “The town’s 1,217 registered voters will have another chance to cast votes for Kathleen Keresey, the incumbent who is currently serving as board chair, and challenger Jon Piasecki. The May 8 election resulted in a 202-202 tie, which remained after votes were recounted on May 19.”

THE LOCAL ANGLE

— “State, federal leaders seek relief for flood-soaked farmers,” by Dave Canton, Springfield Republican: “A significant amount of political firepower packed itself into a nondescript field on Honey Pot Road on Saturday to look at acre upon acre of crops destined to be plowed into the ground. … At least 75 farms and almost 2,000 acres have been affected by the heavy rainstorms of the past week. [And that was before more rain and a tornado arrived on Sunday].”

A silver lining to the flooding: “Above-normal” rains have lifted Massachusetts out of drought conditions, the state said Friday.

Not a silver lining: “As the climate changes, obsolete dams put Mass. at risk for flooding similar to Vermont,” by Craig LeMoult and Casey Choung, GBH News. Heavy rains also ripped up roads in Fitchburg .

— "Salisbury officials to decide Monday if Straight Pride Parade organizer should stay on local board," by John Hilliard, Boston Globe: "Salisbury officials are expected to decide Monday night whether a local right-wing organizer — who helped plan the Straight Pride Parade in Boston and who was with a crowd yelling at police at the Capitol on the day of the insurrection — should continue serving on the board overseeing the town’s affordable housing."

2024 WATCH

— CASH DASH: Former Vice President Mike Pence will hit up Massachusetts donors for campaign cash at an event with Putnam Investments CEO Bob Reynolds on Wednesday before heading back to New Hampshire, per a person familiar with his plans.

Democrats are also dipping back into the Massachusetts money well. First lady Jill Biden is due in Provincetown on Friday for a reception that Bryan Rafanelli and his husband, Mark Walsh , are hosting along with LGBTQ rights activist Alix Ritchie and her spouse, Marty Davis , the Boston Globe’s Jim Puzzanghera reports .

— “RFK Jr.’s secret fundraising success: Republicans,” by Jessica Piper, POLITICO.

— "Manchin and Huntsman to speak at No Labels event in Manchester," by Josh Rogers, NHPR.

HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to House Democratic Whip Rep. Katherine Clark, her district director for policy Wayne Blackman and to Clark alum Lauren Pardi; John Milligan, Alicia Amato (Furnary), WaPo’s Katie Zezima, R. Kevin Ryan , COS for Rep. Stephen Lynch; Christine Haughney Dare-Bryan, Chanel Prunier , former Republican National Committeewoman; Brendan Beroff, Jacob Watts, Matthew E. Berger and John Dacey . Happy belated to Enid Michelman, who celebrated Friday.

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