BY BEN WHITE
Presented by Brilliant
With help from Tyler Weyant
SCOOP: DEADLIEST YEAR IN U.S. HISTORY — The CDC plans to formally announce that the U.S. death rate increased by 15 percent last year as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, making it the deadliest in U.S. history, according to two senior administration officials with direct knowledge of the matter. Covid-19 was the third leading cause of death behind heart disease and cancer. Altogether more than 3 million people in the U.S. died in 2020, the agency found.
MIDTERM REPORT CARD — Plenty of folks wait until the First 100 Days to grade a new administration’s performance, a benchmark that dates to a Franklin Delano Roosevelt radio address in 1933. Well, forget that. We at the Nightly are going with 50 days, which for President Joe Biden is today, no matter what the White House says. So how’s he done?
Judging by approval ratings, pretty darn well. He’s at 53.7 percent in the Real Clear Politics Average. He hit a remarkable 59 percent in the last POLITICO/Morning Consult survey. AP also put him at about 60 percent.
He’s about to sign a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief and stimulus package that enjoys massive public support despite the fact that not a single Republican in the House or Senate supported it. Cash infusions of several thousand dollars — perhaps $6,000 or $7,000 for larger families — are about to hit American bank accounts. Sending people money is pretty popular.
Biden speaks during an event with the CEOs of Johnson & Johnson and Merck at the South Court Auditorium of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington. | Getty Images
Of course all these numbers could slide — and slide fast — based on three main factors: Covid, Covid and Covid. So far Biden’s hit some solid milestones on fighting the virus and returning national life and the economy somewhere close to normal later this year. He’s on pace to hit 100 million vaccinations in his 100 days. The U.S. is now vaccinating over 2 million people per day. Covid cases and hospitalizations are falling pretty fast. Give him at least a B+ on Covid so far.
But Biden and the nation are nowhere near in the clear. Covid variants, notably the U.K. and New York City strains, still threaten to undermine vaccination progress and block Biden’s goal of getting the nation’s schools, ballparks, restaurants, hotels, theme parks, bars and all the rest open by late this year or early next.
And if kids are not fully back in schools very soon — absolutely by the fall — the nation’s parents are going to lose their collective minds and Biden’s numbers will tank. Never underestimate how bonkers parents — particularly moms who shoulder much of the load — are going with so many kids still at home.
On the economy, it’s way too soon to assign Biden any kind of grade . Call it an incomplete. He’s signed some executive orders that don’t amount to much. The big macro data like job creation are starting to turn up again: Witness the 379,000 new jobs in February, thanks mainly to states easing restrictions on bars and restaurants. But those same measures could lead to more Covid outbreaks.
Biden’s first two years will rise or fall based on the success of the stimulus package, the largest infusion of federal cash into an already growing economy in American history. The package doles out huge amounts of direct cash, extends jobless benefits, radically expands the child tax credit and by some measures could dramatically reduce the national poverty rate.
It’s way more popular than President Barack Obama’s efforts to bail out banks and very haphazardly and lamely try to help struggling homeowners. It’s bigger, bolder, sexier and could turn Biden into a new Reagan or FDR.
Or it could spark a wave of faster inflation, force the Federal Reserve into emergency rate hikes, drive up borrowing costs and make it much harder to pass any other significant legislation over the next several years. Which brings us to Biden’s next problem.
What’s next? Biden’s agenda calls for massive infrastructure spending including huge green energy projects. He wants to further expand Obamacare and make Medicare available to more Americans, among many other things. He will have two more shots at budget reconciliation — meaning the ability to pass big stuff with just 50 votes in the Senate — before the 2022 midterms, according to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office.
Theoretically he could use at least one of those to do infrastructure spending (because let’s face it there is no bipartisan deal happening there) or include things like a national clean electricity standard or more health care expansion.
But after pumping another $2 trillion into the economy, will Biden be able to bring along Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va) or other moderate Democratic senators for more giant spending efforts when the debt and deficit are already spiraling higher? It’s not at all obvious that he can.
Biden is riding fairly high at the moment and only a cruel grader would put him under an overall B+ grade. But if he does not successfully beat back the virus and if the stimulus doesn’t juice up the economy without sparking inflation, the next 50, 100 or 500 days will be a rough ride.
Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news and tips at bwhite@politico.com and rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @morningmoneyben and @renurayasam.
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ANOTHER VIEW — Veteran Wall Street analyst Richard Berstein, founder of RBAdvisors, emails Ben and Nightly:
As the son of a scientist, I’m glad the virus response is finally being science-driven. The results should be quite good.
Regarding the stimulus, I totally agree we should err bigger, but once again Washington has knee-jerked for a short-term solution that has to be paid for via longer-term debt. I wish they’d put people to work by improving the country’s dilapidated infrastructure, which would improve the country’s competitiveness and could benefit future generations of Americans. Think WPA, CWA, TVA, and Interstate Highway System.
Overall, I’d give them a B+/A- broken down into an A+ for following science and B for the stimulus plan.
| FIRST IN NIGHTLY |
THE PITFALLS OF RECALL — A campaign to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom offers California Republicans their best chance in a generation to retake the blue-state governorship. First, they have to get their own house in order, Jeremy White writes.
The shrunken California Republican Party is hoping to revive its fortunes by capitalizing on coronavirus discontent to unseat Newsom. The prospect of toppling a Democratic governor with White House aspirations has energized California conservatives and drawn national attention and funding.
But fault lines are already emerging. Republicans hoping to replace Newsom are bludgeoning one another even before the recall has qualified, accusing one another of being too establishment, too inexperienced or too moderate. The early California jockeying reflects simmering national tensions in the wake of President Donald Trump’s departure.
“Republicans are headed for a clash in the 2022 primaries about who’s going to control the party — is it going to be Trump and his acolytes or is the party going to move on with establishment conservatives like Liz Cheney?” said Republican strategist Rob Stutzman, who worked on the successful 2003 recall campaign for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. “It’s essentially an earlier, available version for this proxy fight to take place.”
As California has turned increasingly liberal and Democratic over the past two decades, Republicans have virtually no hope of winning the California governorship in a general election. The party hasn’t won a statewide office since Schwarzenegger’s reelection in 2006.
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| NIGHTLY NUMBER |
70 The number of Senate votes to confirm Judge Merrick Garland , Biden’s pick for attorney general. The victory for Garland, 68, came almost five years after his failed nomination to the Supreme Court by Obama in 2016. The Senate, then under Republican control, denied Garland a hearing or vote. |
| WHAT'D I MISS? |
— McConnell: Capitol security measures are “overreaction”: “We’ve overdone it,” McConnell told reporters. “I’m extremely uncomfortable with the fact that my constituents can’t come to the Capitol. There’s all this razor wire around the complex. It reminds me of my last visit to Kabul.”
— Blinken, Sullivan to meet with top Chinese diplomats next week: The secretary of State and national security adviser will meet with Yang Jiechi, the director of China’s Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Anchorage, Alaska, on March 18, according to a department statement from spokesperson Ned Price.
— Facebook denies being a monopoly: Facebook is seeking to throw out federal antitrust suits by the FTC and state attorneys general , arguing that enforcers failed to show it has a monopoly and waited too long to challenge its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp.
— Fudge confirmed: The Senate confirmed Marcia Fudge as the next housing secretary in a 66-34 vote , clearing the way for her to take on a cascade of crises: Millions of people facing eviction during the pandemic, a rise in homelessness, and soaring housing prices worsening a years-long affordable housing crunch.
— Regan to lead EPA: The Senate confirmed Michael Regan to lead the Environmental Protection Agency by a 66-34 vote today, putting the North Carolina regulator in charge of restoring the climate and water pollution regulations that the Trump administration had weakened. He will be the first Black man to run the EPA, and the second African American person to do so after Obama’s first-term administrator Lisa Jackson.
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| AROUND THE NATION |
BETWEEN CUOMO AND DISASTER — A year ago, New York Attorney General Letitia “Tish” James and Gov. Andrew Cuomo were allies in a tit-for-tat with then-President Trump. Now, as Anna Gronewold reports in the latest POLITICO Dispatch, Tish holds Cuomo’s future in her hands as her office oversees an investigation into mounting claims of sexual harassment.
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| ASK THE AUDIENCE |
Nightly asks you: What is something you postponed in 2020 that you’re planning on doing in 2021? Send us your answer through the form, and we’ll include select answers in a future edition.
| THE GLOBAL FIGHT |
J&J WON’T SOLVE EUROPE’S PROBLEMS — The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is expected to get the green light Thursday from the European Medicines Agency, but don’t expect the news to put a spring in the EU’s vaccination step, Jillian Deutsch writes.
The drugmaker’s coronavirus vaccine, which has already been approved and used in the U.S., can stay in a normal fridge for three months and requires just one shot. The Commission has secured 200 million doses, with the option to purchase another 200 million.
The catch: Even assuming the EMA gives the thumbs up, the company won’t deliver its first doses to EU countries until April 1 at the earliest — and even that’s not looking likely. Unlike BioNTech/Pfizer, which began shipping its mRNA vaccines just days after EU approval, Johnson & Johnson has not committed to any shipments until the second quarter of the year — meaning at least a three-week lag between the EU’s approval and Johnson & Johnson’s first deliveries.
German MEP Peter Liese said today that the first doses might not even arrive until mid-April, adding: “It’s already a problem.” An EU diplomat said it might not even be until the end of April.
TOMORROW: HEAR FROM GOVERNORS ACROSS AMERICA : 2020 was marked by crisis —from the global pandemic and ensuing economic recession to racial injustice protests and the fallout from the presidential election and its aftermath. Governors have been left to pick up the pieces. “The Fifty: America’s Governors,” is a series of live conversations featuring various governors on the unique challenges they face as they take the lead and command the national spotlight in historic ways. REGISTER HERE.
| PARTING WORDS |
FOR SHAME — Nightly’s Tyler Weyant writes:
I haven’t been able to escape shame for the past year. And I bet you haven’t either. And I bet you’re ashamed of that.
Next to the moments of joy I was able to squeeze out were thousands of micro-cuts, slivers of darkness that attempted to drown me in self-loathing and doubt.
I have replaced the shame I felt for going to the same food truck three days in a row at the office with the shame I feel for wearing the same sweatpants for a good portion of the week. Standing in for a person I might shame after they left a coffee stain on a table at work is a person I judge for not wearing a mask correctly. My Netflix consumption shame … well, that has remained perilously high.
And I am ashamed of how much shame I feel! Goodness, am I lucky. I got to go on vacation (in-state, with family). I saw my grandparents multiple times (distanced, in masks). I had secure food sources and a job. I’m healthy. There is no reason for me to ever complain or moan or be irked about anything. What a shame.
Maybe, just maybe, we can be easier on each other and ourselves over the next 365 days. At some point last year, I stopped using “Everyone’s just trying their best” as my go-to pandemic phrase. Maybe I should start again, because I truly believe it.
This thing is stressful. We’re all living it together. And, after one of the greatest scientific achievements in a century, we’re vaccinating and masking our way out of it together. It would be a shame if we didn’t stop to appreciate that. Everyone’s trying their best.
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