Friday, February 12, 2021

POLITICO NIGHTLY: The science of school reopenings

 


 
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BY RENUKA RAYASAM AND TYLER WEYANT

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NOT AN EASY A — The Biden administration will issue a school reopening plan Friday, but it’s unlikely to ease the tension faced by major school districts around the country trying to bring students back into classrooms. San Francisco’s mayor said a deal struck with the union requiring all teachers to be vaccinated would mean that schools won’t be open this semester. Chicago and New York City are bringing younger students back but still lack plans to get high school students into buildings.

The risk of students, teachers and staff getting Covid is not zero when a school is open. The Houston Independent School District, which has been open for face-to-face instruction since October, has recorded more than 2,700 cases among a student and staff population of more than 223,000.

“This is one of the hardest things in the world,” Buddy Creech, director of the Vanderbilt Vaccine Research Program and associate professor of pediatrics, told Nightly today about the efforts to reopen schools. But reducing Covid risks to zero comes with other costs. “The risks cannot be solely be judged by a binary Covid and no-Covid scale.”

Nearly a year after school districts have shut down around the country the downsides of remote learning are also becoming clear: An entire generation of students is experiencing what amounts to a lost year. Students are struggling with anxiety, depression and isolation. They are falling behind in coursework. They are missing out on important social services like meals and counseling and the watchful eye of teachers trained to spot abuse or neglect.

Study after study, most recently one from the CDC, has shown that the classroom isn’t a major cause of Covid spread. That is, as long as mitigating measures like mask wearing, ventilation, hand-washing and social distancing are in place. Communities with reopened schools don’t have higher rates of Covid than those with shuttered schools. Usually Covid cases seen in schools are the result of gatherings, sporting events and other group activities outside of the classroom.

The level of Covid in schools mirrors community spread, which is dramatically falling in much of the country but could surge again because of new variants. And new research shows that teachers in open schools have higher Covid rates, although it’s unclear whether they are getting Covid from the classroom or if the higher numbers were the result of more testing.

“This is not a static situation,” Megan Collins, co-director of the Johns Hopkins’ Consortium for School-Based Health Solutions and a faculty member in the Berman Institute of Bioethics and the School of Medicine, said. “Based on what we know right now, it’s safe.”

For students, the risk calculation varies by age. Younger students are far less likely to get Covid and face serious health risks from it, and elementary age students suffer the most academically from being out of school.

Teenagers, however, face the same health risks as adults, and those who are obese or have other health conditions are more prone to suffering from Covid. They are also more likely to transmit it. And it’s easier for them to handle Zoom school. But again, there are caveats: Younger students have a harder time wearing masks, social distancing and complying with other Covid-safe behaviors. Older students are more prone to serious depression.

The Biden plan is likely to emphasize mitigation measuresFriday’s guidance will be helpful to giving schools a clear path to reopening, Collins said, but more important is a Covid relief package making its way through Congress with funding for school districts. More than anything, teachers want to be vaccinated before heading back to classrooms.

Private schools have struggled less with the decision, heightening disparities between the wealthy and everyone else. Schools with a lot of money have nicer buildings with classrooms where windows open and desks can be spaced out. They can invest in better ventilation systems and frequent testing. Plus they aren’t at the mercy of a school board that controls closing schedules. Creech said that at the private elementary school in Nashville where his wife has been teaching in person since August, the school delays reopening after holidays to avoid a potential outbreak from family gatherings.

Watch: Nightly spoke with seniors at El Paso High School about the toll of closures this past year. More from the seniors below.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. We won’t be publishing on Monday, Feb. 15. But we’ll be back and better than ever on Tuesday. Reach out at rrayasam@politico.com and tweyant@politico.com, or on Twitter at @renurayasam and @tweyant.

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Meeting energy needs and tackling climate change isn’t either/or. We have to do both. Across the board, natural gas and oil companies are implementing advanced technologies to better manage their infrastructure. From preventing methane leaks to inspecting operations deep underwater, these technologies are helping streamline operations while keeping net imports at an all-time low. Let’s make even more progress together.

 
IMPEACHMENT

— Today in 180 seconds: Watch a roundup of the biggest moments of Day 3 in the trial, courtesy of video producer Michael Cadenhead.

Nightly video player of the Trump impeachment trial day 3

House impeachment managers finished their arguments this afternoon in the Senate trial of former President Donald Trump. Here’s how they tackled their last day presenting, and what’s next:

— Closing argument: Managers argued Trump’s lack of remorse following the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol shows that the former president should be convicted and barred from holding federal office again.

“It’s about the future,” said Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), one of nine impeachment managers arguing the case for the House. “It’s about making sure that no future official, no future president does the exact thing President Trump does.” It was an effort by the managers to push back against Trump’s allies who have said that voters, not members of Congress, should decide whether Trump — who has been flirting with a 2024 bid — deserves to become president again.

— Not so fast: The raw emotions stirred up by the never-before-seen footage of violent rioters ransacking the Capitol hasn’t moved Republicans any closer to voting to convict Trump on a charge of inciting the mob, Andrew DesiderioBurgess Everett and Marianne LeVine write.

Most Republicans are publicly unshakable from the hard line they’ve taken on their party’s process argument: How could they convict on the merits after saying the Senate shouldn’t even hold the trial?

— Up next, Team Trump: The impeachment defense team will finish its case Friday , Trump’s senior adviser Jason Miller wrote in a tweet today. That means Trump’s defense team would use just one day to defend the former president. The trial could now conclude as soon as this weekend after Trump attorney David Schoen, an observant Jew, withdrew a request not to work sundown Friday through Saturday. Once the defense team is done, senator’s questions are scheduled for four hours. Closing arguments follow, with two hours permitted for each side, followed by a vote to convict or acquit.

— Honors for law enforcement: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she will introduce legislation to award Congress’ highest honor to Capitol Police and other law enforcement officials who protected the Capitol from rioters last month.

 

THE INDISPENSABLE GUIDE TO CONGRESS: Looking for the latest on the Schumer/McConnell dynamic or the increasing tensions in the House? What are the latest whispers coming out of the Speaker's Lobby? Just leave it to Beavers... New author Olivia Beavers delivers the scoop in Huddle, the morning Capitol Hill must-read with assists from POLITICO's deeply sourced Congress team. Subscribe to Huddle today.

 
 
AROUND THE NATION

Nightly video player of El Paso High School students

‘I MISS SCHOOL’ — Yan Arias, quarterback of El Paso High School’s football team, was looking forward to playing the Tigers’ season during his senior year. Emily Lugo, a senior at El Paso High and a swimmer, was excited about attending prom this spring. Seniors Andre De Santos, who runs track, and Olivia Gouveia, the editor-in-chief of the school paper, are sad about missing out on the school’s traditions for final-year students, like the Eve of the E festival during homecoming or Spring Fiesta. Melody Stout, a volleyball player, was excited about getting the chance to put together pep rallies as El Paso High’s student body president.

The pandemic pretty much wiped out the traditional senior year. El Paso High, the city’s oldest high school, closed classrooms in the fall and allowed students to come back this semester, but many opted not to attend in person. They were worried about bringing the virus back to their families, the students told Nightly’s Renuka Rayasam. Parties and pep rallies have been canceled, though the school is considering whether to hold prom this spring. Lugo is doubtful.

El Paso High has tried to keep its sports seasons going, though many games have been delayed or canceled. Stout said that volleyball games are pretty much her only social activity outside the home. De Santos was relieved when track resumed, even though he has to run in a mask. Lugo said her swim season has been rocky because she wasn’t able to practice for many months. Plus she got Covid last fall, which is still affecting her breathing.

Arias has played football for most of his life and was looking forward to leading the team this year, he said. But he got Covid last fall and missed the first three games of the shortened season. In his first game back last November, he led the Tigers to its first win since 2018, throwing three touchdowns and scoring another three rushing touchdowns, earning Texas High school player of the week. “It felt like home,” said Arias about his return to the field, “doing the thing I love the most.”

Watch the students talk about how the pandemic affected their senior year.

FIRST IN NIGHTLY

FINALLY SOMETHING EVERYONE AGREES ON — California Democrats disagree on plenty of issues, but they are increasingly coalescing around a common gripe, Jeremy White and Carla Marinucci write: What exactly is the San Francisco school board thinking?

Board members last month decided Abraham Lincoln — and current U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein — were no longer worthy of having their names on San Francisco schools. The same board this week devoted much of a marathon meeting to upending storied Lowell High School, saying its admissions requirements resulted in an academic enclave that lacks diversity. And it spent two hours debating whether a parent had a sufficiently diverse background to join an advisory council (the board concluded he did not).

The San Francisco Board of Education has drawn national criticism as an example of California’s liberalism gone too far, especially as campuses in the district remain shut despite San Francisco having one of the lowest Covid-19 infection rates in the state. California Democrats routinely lament that conservative attacks on their state are exaggerated for effect, but this time even they are shaking their heads, many saying the caricature has turned out to be true.

 

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DEAR NIGHTLY

COVID COURT STILL IN SESSION — Do you have an unresolved disagreement over Covid risk management with a relative or colleague? Or do you have questions about the virus or vaccine that haven’t been answered? Ask Renu to issue a ruling! Email your pandemic disputes to nightly@politico.com.

WHAT'D I MISS?

— China bans BBC over Xinjiang: Authorities accused the British broadcaster of not being “factual and fair,” according to a government statement. The decision was a result of reporting on issues including the Xinjiang region and China’s handling of the coronavirus, state media Global Times said.

— Twitter suspends Project Veritas account: The account was “permanently suspended for repeated violations of Twitter’s private information policy,” a Twitter spokesperson said. The conservative group’s founder, James O’Keefe, had his account temporarily locked, also for violation of the private information policy. “The account owner is required to delete the violative Tweet to regain access to their account,” the spokesperson said. In other social media suspension news, Instagram announced that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was blocked from its service for “repeatedly sharing debunked claims about the coronavirus or vaccines.”

— DeSantis blasts WH on Fla. travel limit report: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis promised the state would strongly and swiftly oppose any attempts to block Americans from traveling to the Sunshine State. DeSantis’ comments were in response to a Wednesday story by McClatchy that quoted an unnamed White House official saying the administration was considering imposing domestic travel restrictions, including on Florida, to stem the transmission of a new Covid-19 variant that is rapidly spreading in the state.

— Biden ends Trump border emergency, troops staying: Biden formally terminated the two-year-old declaration of a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border and halted the flow of government funds toward construction of the border wall. But roughly 3,600 troops deployed to the border won’t be coming home anytime soon, according to the Pentagon.

THE GLOBAL FIGHT

HOW IT WENT WRONG IN EUROPE — The vaccine rollout in the U.S. hasn’t always been smooth. But it could be worse. Just look at Europe. In the latest Dispatch podcast, POLITICO Europe’s Jillian Deutsch tells the complicated story of how the EU fell behind on vaccines.

Play audio

Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast

 

TRACK THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION: President Biden's cabinet is getting confirmed, bringing change to agencies and departments across the Executive Branch. From the West Wing to Foggy Bottom, track the first 100 days of the Biden administration with Transition Playbook, our scoop-filled newsletter that chronicles the policies, people, and emerging power centers of the new administration. Subscribe today.

 
 
NIGHTLY NUMBER

300 million

The number of Americans the U.S. is on track to vaccinate by the end of July, Biden said during a visit to the National Institutes of Health . Biden announced the purchase of 200 million doses that will be available by May, rather than June as originally predicted.

PARTING WORDS

AFTER THE TRIAL — Biden’s expansive immigration bill will finally land on Capitol Hill next week. But supporters hoping for sweeping change now that Democrats control all of Washington are in for an early disappointmentHeather CaygleSarah Ferris and Laura Barrón-López write.

Facing a rapidly approaching April deadline to act, Democrats are instead coalescing around a targeted effort to pass popular immigration bills that already have bipartisan backing, including legislation to provide a pathway to citizenship for the undocumented group known as Dreamers and immigrants from war-torn areas.

The plan is sure to anger some Democrats, who have long pushed for a massive revamp of the nation’s immigration laws and see quick action under Biden as their most likely chance. But several Democrats told POLITICO they’re confronting the political reality — two chambers with very narrow margins — and don’t see a clear path to passage for a major bill. “My motto is, get something done,” said Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.). “Whatever we do, we can’t walk away empty-handed.”

A message from Energy for Progress:

Meeting energy needs and tackling climate change isn’t either/or. We have to do both. The future of technology is here — and it’s enabling natural gas and oil companies to operate faster, more safely, and more accurately than ever before. New technology makes it possible for energy companies to improve worker safety, protect the environment, and explore new solutions to better position the industry to meet the nation’s energy needs. Let’s make even more progress together.

 

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Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam

Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop

Tyler Weyant @tweyant

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