Morning Digest: It's growing late, but the field for California governor is still unsettledThe lack of a firm frontrunner has left an opening despite the massive expense of a campaign
Leading OffCA-GovThe race for California’s open governorship remains unsettled even at this late date, with a third notable Republican jumping into the contest and a Democratic mayor teasing a possible bid as well. Jon Slavet, a wealthy businessman who co-founded the freelancing site Guru.com, announced Friday that he would run in the June 2 top-two primary. Slavet, who told the Los Angeles Times he’ll self-fund “what it takes to be competitive,” said he’ll devote at least seven figures of his own money for his campaign. He may need far more than that, though, to have a chance in a dark blue state where Republicans last won statewide office in 2006. His presence could, however, still have an impact on the race to succeed termed-out Democrat Gavin Newsom. Some observers have speculated that the large number of Democrats running could divide liberal voters just enough to allow two GOP candidates to secure both general election spots. To the extent the concern was a real one, it centered around the fact that, until last week, there were only two major Republican contenders: Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox host Steve Hilton. Such a lockout has always been unlikely in a state as Democratic as California. Now, though, Slavet’s presence in the race will make that unlikely scenario even less so, since the GOP vote will get split three ways. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, meanwhile, isn’t dispelling chatter that he’s interested in making a late entry on the Democratic side. “I wouldn’t rule it out,” Mahan told Politico last week. “I never say never, but the state needs a change agent and needs a clear vision for what we’re going to do differently. I haven’t yet heard that voice of clarity from a change agent.” For now, though, Mahan still says he’s hoping to influence the many candidates who are running. To that end, he held what Politico called an “impromptu summit” on Friday with five of the contenders. Mahan, who leads the third-largest city in the Golden State, has made a name for himself by repeatedly criticizing Newsom from the right over his approach to crime and homelessness. Mahan has also argued that Newsom is too focused on his high-profile conflicts with the Trump administration, saying he should instead address problems at home. The governor’s team has not hidden how little it thinks of Mahan. “He comes from a long line of people who’ve tried to break out of San Jose,” an unnamed Newsom advisor told Politico in October. “He’s trying to get attention by contrasting in a way that alienates base Democrats. Running against Gavin Newsom as a Democrat only makes sense if you plan to become a Republican.” Mahan’s flirtation with Newsom’s job comes at a point in the election cycle when normally it might be too late to organize a winning campaign in America’s largest state. Newsom himself kicked off his successful 2018 bid nearly four years before Election Day, and several of his would-be successors followed a similar early timeline by launching back in 2023. But Kamala Harris’ decision not to run in July of this year seemed to mark the start of a new chapter in this race, as Harris appeared to be one of the few Democrats who had the name recognition and connections to make what would have already been a late entry. The lineup soon seemed to firm up, with polls showing former Rep. Katie Porter as the frontrunner against other Democratic notables like former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra, former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former state Comptroller Betty Yee. But that’s not how things played out. Porter’s status was called into doubt in October after she attracted unfavorable national attention when she threatened to walk out of a TV interview with a reporter. Billionaire investor Tom Steyer and Rep. Eric Swalwell, apparently believing that Porter’s position was not as certain as polls had suggested, both launched campaigns the next month. Three other major Democrats—Attorney General Rob Bonta, developer Rick Caruso, and Assemblymember Buffy Wicks—are also publicly or privately considering running as well. California’s candidate filing deadline is March 6, but unlike in years past, the roster may not be set until much closer to that date. Unfortunately, after a strong fall, subscription growth has leveled off at The Downballot, and we can’t just hope things will pick back up next year. That’s why we’re asking our readers to consider upgrading to a paid subscription. It’s a two-for-one: You get to boost unique independent journalism and gain access to subscriber-only features and content—all for just $60 a year. Redistricting RoundupIN RedistrictingIndiana’s GOP-dominated state House approved a new map on Friday targeting the state’s two Democratic members of Congress, but all eyes are on the state Senate, where continued opposition from many Republicans could thwart the entire effort. The new map passed the House 57-41, but 12 Republicans sided with Democrats to vote against the proposal. The Senate, meanwhile, is slated to take up the matter on Monday. According to a public tally by journalist Nathaniel Rakich, 14 GOP senators have come out against mid-decade redistricting, while the same number have expressed support. A dozen have been noncommittal or haven’t spoken publicly. To defeat the map, at least 16 Republicans would have to unite with all 10 Democrats in the 50-member chamber, since Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith would be able to break a tie in favor of the GOP. GovernorsFL-GovKeinah Fort, a former employee of businessman James Fishback, accused him in court this year of having “initiated a romantic relationship” with her in 2022 when she was only 17 and he was 27. Fort further alleged that Fishback, whom she later became engaged to, physically abused her and had engaged in “stalking and cyberbullying” after their relationship ended. Fishback, who is seeking the Republican nomination for governor, responded by calling the allegations “absolutely false” in an interview with Florida Politics’ Jesse Scheckner. Fishback noted that a judge denied Fort’s requests for a protection order in June, saying it was evidence that he was “fully exonerated of any wrongdoing in this case.” Scheckner pointed out that Fort’s case centered around whether Fishback’s behavior had necessitated a protective order and not whether he had may have violated the state’s age of consent laws. GA-GovA week after a mysterious group launched a $1 million ad campaign against Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who is seeking Georgia’s open governorship, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that there’s still no information about who’s behind the offensive—or even what party they hail from. A spot from this unknown outfit, called Georgians for Integrity, accuses Jones of becoming so rich in office that he “just loaned $10 million to his campaign for governor.” The narrator continues, “Jones pushed a special law allowing his family to get rich leasing land to a new hospital.” Allies of Attorney General Chris Carr, who is one of Jones’ opponents in the May 19 primary, previously highlighted the lieutenant governor’s ardent support for a law last year to make it easier to build hospitals in small communities. Jones argued the legislation was vital to ensure “quality health care” in rural areas, but skeptics pointed out that Jones’ father happens to own the land for one of these proposed projects. Both Carr and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who is also running for the GOP nod, told the AJC they had nothing to do with this new ad. Democrats, who could also utilize this line of attack against Jones if he makes it to the general election, said that they, too, don’t know who is behind Georgians for Integrity. HouseCA-03, CA-05, CA-06Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley seems to be in absolutely no hurry to decide which House district he’ll run in under California’s new congressional map. When Politico asked the congressman if there might be a “drop-dead” day for him to make up his mind, he responded by saying March 6—the state’s candidate filing deadline. Kiley, whose 3rd District in the Sacramento area just became considerably bluer, has not ruled out defending this revamped constituency against Democratic Rep. Ami Bera, who is running here. Kiley has also not dismissed talk that he could instead try to replace Bera in the 6th District, though that seat will likewise be tough for any Republican to win. There’s another possibility as well. Kiley has expressed openness to the idea of challenging fellow GOP Rep. Tom McClintock in the conservative 5th District, though he’d be at a huge geographic disadvantage. While McClintock, who represents the current district with that number, represents 73% of the redrawn constituency according to calculations by The Downballot, Kiley serves a mere 4% of the 5th. CA-41Former Assemblymember Hector De La Torre will challenge Rep. Linda Sanchez, a fellow Democrat who defeated him in a congressional race almost a quarter century ago, Politico reports. The two will face off in the June top-two primary for California’s new 41st District, a reliably blue seat based in Los Angeles County that includes just under half of the residents of Sanchez’s current 38th District. In 2002, Sanchez and De La Torre squared off in what was then numbered the 39th District, back when the state still used partisan primaries. Sanchez prevailed 33-29, while De La Torre went on to serve in the legislature and later waged an unsuccessful campaign for state insurance commissioner in 2010, and he’s served on the California Air Resources Board since 2011. CA-48Vista City Council member Corinna Contreras tells Politico she’s joining the large Democratic field looking to oppose Republican Rep. Darrell Issa in California’s revamped 48th District. Contreras made her plans known shortly after Issa, who had been mulling running in a conservative House seat in Texas, confirmed he’d instead defend what’s now a light-blue constituency.
NJ-09Attorney Tiffany Burress “is gearing up” to seek the Republican nomination to oppose Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou in New Jersey’s 9th District, Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin reports. Burress is the wife of former New York Giants wide receiver Plaxico Burress, who scored the touchdown that clinched the team’s upset victory in the 2008 Super Bowl. Plaxico Burress has attracted less welcome attention since then for his legal issues, including when he was sentenced to two years in prison in 2009 after accidentally shooting himself with a gun that had not been properly licensed. Tiffany Burress, who Rubashkin says doesn’t have an extensive track record of political activity, would join Clifton City Councilwoman Rosie Pino and perennial candidate Billy Prempeh in the primary for the 9th District, a North Jersey constituency that’s home to a large Latino electorate. Republicans became interested in targeting this longtime Democratic stronghold after Donald Trump carried the 9th 49-48 four years after Joe Biden won it by a far wider 59-40 margin. However, the district returned to form during last month’s election for governor, when Democrat Mikie Sherrill scored a 59-40 win—the same as Biden—according to calculations from the New Jersey Globe. NY-08New York City Council member Chi Osse confirmed Friday that he would not take on House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries in next year’s Democratic primary for New York’s 8th District. Osse’s decision came two weeks after Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani successfully urged a committee of the New York City chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America to vote against recommending an endorsement for the would-be challenger. NY-10Former Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou took part in a Thursday event for potential candidates looking to win the state Working Families Party endorsement, Politico’s Emily Ngo reports. Niou does not appear to have previously publicly expressed interest in seeking a rematch against Rep. Dan Goldman, who narrowly defeated her in the 2022 primary. Two politicians who have floated challenges, New York City Councilmember Alexa Aviles and outgoing New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, were also at Thursday’s gathering, as was Goldman. PA-08State Sen. Marty Flynn declined to rule out a bid against Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan, the day after a first-time candidate launched a bid challenging Flynn in next year’s Democratic primary for his legislative post. Democrats, however, already have a top-tier candidate taking on Bresnahan in Pennsylvania’s 8th District, Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti. In a sign of her strength, Cognetti raised half a million dollars during her first month in the race after launching her campaign at the start of September. TX-19Businessman Matt Smith (no, not that Matt Smith) announced Friday that he was joining the race to succeed retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington, a fellow Republican who is not seeking reelection in Texas’ dark red 19th District. Smith, who runs a company called Fat Matt Roofing, also aired his opening ad during Sunday’s Big 12 football game between the local Texas Tech team and Brigham Young University. TX-22Former state Rep. Jacey Jetton dropped out of the GOP primary for Texas’ open 22nd District on Friday, a day after Donald Trump endorsed former Fort Bend County Constable Trever Nehls. The only other Republican running for the seat, which is held by Nehls’ identical twin brother, is conservative activist Rebecca Clark. Attorneys GeneralMI-AGPublic Policy Polling (D) for Karen McDonald:
Prosecutors & SheriffsAlameda County, CA District AttorneyFormer Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price announced Thursday that she would run in the November special election to regain the post she decisively lost last year after her critics waged a successful recall campaign. Price, who was elected as a criminal justice reformer in 2022, will oppose incumbent Ursula Jones Dickson, whom the County Board of Supervisors appointed to replace her. “We need to show Donald Trump and his billionaire friends—whether they’re in Washington or Piedmont—that justice is not for sale in Alameda County,” Price said in her kickoff. Oaklandside notes that her reference to Piedmont, an affluent enclave surrounded entirely by Oakland, appears to be a not-so-subtle swipe at Philip Dreyfuss, a wealthy resident who financed the effort to oust her. “Former District Attorney Pamela Price was recalled by 63% of Alameda County voters,” Jones Dickson said in response. “She’s welcome to make the case, less than a year after that recall, that they were wrong.” Whoever wins next year’s officially nonpartisan contest will be on the ballot again in 2028. That’s because the California legislature passed a law in 2022 to require most counties to hold elections for district attorney and sheriff in presidential cycles starting in 2028. To realign the calendar, the legislation added two years to the terms of everyone elected to those offices in 2022, though Price’s recall meant she only got to serve part of that extended term. Thank you so much for being a paid subscriber to The Downballot! If you’d like to further support our work, you can donate on our ActBlue page. |
