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Saturday Afternoon Update: Trump's Great American Fiasco — 6/27/26
Strait of Hormuz strikes continue, Lebanon deal undercuts Trump's own Iran framework, and the 250th anniversary celebration is somehow getting more embarrassing by the day
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Hi all, Ben here. It’s the weekend! I hope you are enjoying your Saturday. There is a lot going on today, so if you want to catch up, now’s your chance! Remember to like, share, and re-stack. First, a quick overview:
Top stories we’re following:
Iran has struck another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran-linked drones have hit targets in Bahrain following new U.S. strikes
A new U.S.-brokered framework between Israel and Lebanon appears to directly contradict the existing Iran MOU, and that may not be an accident
Trump’s 250th anniversary celebrations continue to flop, from empty National Malls to a “Great American State Fair” with nowhere to sit
Trump’s response to all of this chaos is retruthing approval polls and posting AI images of himself holding up the globe
Katie Phang just won a major court victory in the Epstein files case, and the DOJ is already crying foul
Trump’s showcases new U.S. passports with his own portrait in them, and still manages to mess them up
Iran’s World Cup run ends in heartbreak, mistreatment, and one of the more moving statements you’ll read from a national team this year
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Let’s get into it.
Iran Strikes Again in the Strait of Hormuz Following U.S. Attacks
Iran has hit yet another vessel trying to leave the Strait of Hormuz without going through the route Iran has designated as the only safe passage. This is not a one-off. This is the second tanker hit since Thursday, and it is happening because the Trump regime keeps trying to tell ships to use a different route than the one Iran has laid out, and Iran keeps following through on its warning that it will not guarantee the safety of any vessel that ignores it. And that’s just the start. Other clashes today show that the war is very much active, despite the so-called ceasefire and MOU. More on that in just a moment.
And let me just say, if Iran controls the actual shipping lanes right now, today, in real time, what does that say about how this war is actually going? I’ll get into the satellite imagery in a moment, and it is not what the Trump regime wants you to see.
UKMTO, that’s the UK Maritime Trade Operations center, put out an advisory early Saturday morning saying a tanker had been struck by an unidentified projectile, with damage to the bridge. We’ve since learned more. The vessel was the Kiku, a Greek-registered, Panama-flagged VLCC carrying Qatar Energy oil, reportedly sailing with its AIS transponder switched off. It was using the route the United States has been pushing ships to take, the so-called security lane closer to Oman, rather than the route Iran has designated as safe.
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Iran’s position, going back to the Memorandum of Understanding, is that administration of the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran and Oman, not Washington. Iran has told shipping companies again and again that vessels using the U.S.-promoted route do so at their own risk. This is now the second tanker to get hit after ignoring that warning, following Thursday’s attack on the vessel Ever Lovely.
Take a look at the satellite imagery from the Strait of Hormuz right now and you’ll see something the administration really does not want you to notice. The U.S.-backed lane near Oman is basically empty. There is almost no traffic running through it. Meanwhile, ship after ship, including a French-owned cargo vessel, the CMA CGM Galapagos, is now running through the Iranian-designated route instead. More are following, according to people tracking the satellite data. Ships are voting with their rudders, and they are choosing Iran’s terms over America’s.
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When the Trump regime struck Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites late Friday, right after the markets closed (of course they waited until after the close), Iran responded almost immediately with drone strikes targeting Bahrain, where the U.S. has a significant military footprint, and Bahrain itself confirmed the attack and called it a clear violation of its sovereignty. UKMTO has now raised the risk rating in the region from moderate to substantial. People who track this stuff closely are warning that we should expect more U.S. strikes on targets like Bandar Abbas in the coming hours, and more retaliatory attacks against Gulf states from Iran. The cycle is not slowing down, but accelerating.
The Lebanon Deal That Undercuts Trump’s Own Iran Framework
While all of that is happening, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was over in the Middle East brokering a separate framework, this one between Israel and Lebanon, with the United States as the broker. Something does not add up here, and I don’t think it’s an accident.
The Iran MOU, the one Trump’s own administration negotiated, says pretty plainly that Israel needs to get out of Lebanon and that there needs to be a full, permanent ceasefire there. Now look at what Rubio just signed. The new Israel-Lebanon framework allows Israeli forces to remain inside a so-called security zone in southern Lebanon indefinitely, with any further withdrawal tied to Hezbollah fully disarming first, something Hezbollah has not agreed to and was not even a party to in these negotiations. Netanyahu is calling it a major achievement. Israel’s ambassador said directly that Iran is out and Hezbollah is out.
This isn’t a matter of opinion. The Iran MOU and the new Lebanon deal pull in opposite directions, regardless of whether you support either one. And if you read the actual language of the Lebanon framework, there’s a line committing both countries to cease “all hostile or adverse actions in international political or legal fora.” That is diplomatic language for steering clear of international courts, which happens to be very convenient for Netanyahu given the scrutiny he continues to face over the devastation in Beirut.
So you have one U.S.-brokered document telling Israel to leave Lebanon, and another U.S.-brokered document, signed days later by the same administration, effectively legitimizing an indefinite Israeli presence there. Whether you think the original Iran MOU was a good deal or a bad one is a separate conversation entirely. But you cannot tell me with a straight face that an administration this allegedly committed to peace just happened to sign two contradictory frameworks within the same week. This was Rubio’s actual goal. Undermine the Iran deal while pretending to broker peace in Lebanon. Mission accomplished.
Trump’s Great American Fiasco
Let’s talk about the 250th anniversary celebrations some more.
This was supposed to be the easiest win of the year. A built-in moment of national pride, an anniversary nobody could screw up, practically a layup. And yet here we are.
The so-called Great American State Fair is underway and video from the National Mall on Saturday showed crowds so sparse that commentators pointed out an average summer day usually draws more people than this supposedly historic celebration did. I have a little personal history in this space, since I spent years litigating consumer fraud cases before my work with MeidasTouch, including leading the class action against the infamous Fyre Festival. I know a disastrous event when I see one, and this qualifies. Photos from the food court showed families sitting on the ground to eat lunch because there was nowhere else to sit. Someone online dubbed it the “Great American Fyre Festival.”
Meanwhile, National Guard troops were out patrolling the fenced-off Reflecting Pool in the rain, where a surveillance system was recorded telling them to stop loitering and proceed to a designated location. I don’t think I need to spell out how dystopian that sounds. It’s 1984 come to life, right here in the United States.
Here’s the thing that really gets me. Imagine what this celebration could have looked like under different leadership. Literally any other president. Concerts with the nation’s best performers, foreign dignitaries, a real year-long buildup to a unified national moment. Instead we got a highly politicized, bizarre spectacle that pales in comparison to any basic state fair.
DOJ Rushes to Appeal After Katie Phang’s Court Victory on the Epstein Files
A big update here. As you probably know by now, our own Katie Phang just won a major court victory in her lawsuit pushing for transparency on the Epstein files. Judge Emmet Sullivan ruled in her favor, and the Trump DOJ is already racing to appeal.
The DOJ’s official statement is as insane as you’d expect. They’re calling Sullivan’s ruling “perverse” and falsely claiming the judge is ordering them to release victims’ names, while insisting they’ve already turned over everything required and vowing to appeal “with confidence.” Except that’s not actually what the ruling says. Sullivan’s decision doesn’t order any victim names released. It requires the Trump regime to justify its redactions, review and produce more records, and publish the redaction log the law already requires them to publish. The DOJ is manufacturing outrage over a ruling that simply asks them to follow the rules. Congratulations again to Katie. We’ll of course keep following this closely. Remember to follow Katie Phang on YouTube for more updates as well.
Trump’s Passport Fail
The White House unveiled a limited-edition "Patriot Passport" for the country's 250th anniversary, featuring a portrait of Trump set against the text of the Declaration of Independence, with his signature in gold underneath; it marks the first time a sitting president's face has appeared inside Americans' passports. Trump shared the design himself on Truth Social, says the new passports say, "Welcome, but be good!"
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The caption drew immediate mockery online, since, well…U.S. passports are used by American citizens.
Iran’s World Cup Statement Worth Reading
I want to close with something away from the politics for a moment, and move to a story about basic humanity.
Iran’s World Cup run ended in heartbreak against Egypt, with a controversial offside call that, in my view, robbed them of a result they earned. Forward Mehdi Taremi didn’t hide his frustration afterward, calling it a rough tournament. The team had hoped to spend the night resting in Seattle but instead was forced onto a midnight flight back to Tijuana by the federal government. Analyst Sina Toossi argued the team had been mistreated from the start, citing what he called petty U.S. travel restrictions layered on top of officiating failures throughout the tournament.
But what struck me most was the note Iran’s players left behind in their locker room in Seattle, following a similar note they left in Los Angeles. It thanked the city for its hospitality and spoke about honor, fairness, and standing tall regardless of the result. Moments like this put a lot of the noise around this World Cup in perspective. These athletes showed up, played with heart, dealt with restrictions and bad calls they had no control over, and still left a message about grace. It’s another reminder that we are all better than our leaders who seem to only lead us into conflict.
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That’s the rundown for this Saturday afternoon. There’s a lot moving right now between the Gulf, Lebanon, the courts, and our own backyard, and we’ll keep tracking all of it for you. Thanks for being here.
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