RFK Jr.’s Libertarian play

BY PEDER SCHAEFER Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks during a voter rally at St. Cecilia Music Center on February 10, 2024 in Grand Rapids, Michigan. | Emily Elconin/Getty Images UNREQUITED LOVE — A big-budget Super Bowl ad . Polls that show him drawing up to 22 percent support in a three-way election. Wealthy donors forking over serious cash to support his candidacy. Democrats and Republicans are beginning to view independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a serious spoiler candidate in this year’s presidential election. But to be a spoiler, first Kennedy has to get on the ballot. That’s where the Libertarian Party comes in. If Kennedy is the party’s nominee, his campaign and associated PACs won’t have to shell out millions of dollars and collect hundreds of thousands of signatures to get on the general election ballot in states across the country. It helps explain why, in recent weeks, Kennedy has appeared on CNN to float interest in the party, and appeared on the podcast of a popular libertarian comedian. He is planning on attending the California Libertarian Party convention at the end of February, where he’ll be on a panel with other possible nominees. The trouble is, while Kennedy holds some Libertarian positions, some see a measure of political expediency in his interest in the party nomination. After all, he began the campaign as a Democrat, then pivoted to independent before expressing interest in the Libertarian Party nomination . It’s sparked a backlash within the Libertarian Party, as both the electoral-focused “prags” who have traditionally controlled the party and supported more mainstream presidential candidates who might boost the party’s profile and more subversive, ideologically rigid members of the Mises Caucus speak out against his name going at the top of the ticket. The Mises Caucus — a more radical libertarian faction organized around the work of Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises — has been a power center within the party since its endorsed candidate, Angela McArdle, won the national committee chairmanship in a 2022 landslide victory with nearly 70 percent of the vote. It controls the majority of the delegates who will vote on the party’s presidential nominee at the national convention in May. While McArdle has suggested that the party may be open to a Kennedy bid, last weekend the Mises Caucus came out formally in opposition to his candidacy, making it unlikely that Kennedy has a real shot at the nomination. McArdle did not respond to a request for comment. In an email to members also posted on X , Mises Caucus leadership declared that “we firmly oppose any strategy that would ‘rent out’ our party’s place on any state’s ballot to RFK, or indeed any candidate who has so many disqualifying deviations from the essential principles of libertarianism.” Michael Heise, the founder of the Mises Caucus, said that while he’s open to Kennedy running for the nomination — he says it would raise the stature of Libertarian Party discourse — nominating the Kennedy family scion would be short-sighted, even if he performed well in the general election. “I don’t want the over-politicization of the Libertarian Party,” said Heise. “We subscribe to the idea that politics is downstream from culture. We want to spread liberty in the culture rather than chasing votes.” The declaration of the Mises Caucus that they want a true libertarian candidate comes after years of infighting within the party. “The Libertarian Party has often struggled with an identity of what it wants to do,” said Christopher Thrasher, an independent ballot access consultant with a long history with the Libertarian Party. “Does it want to evangelize the gospel of Libertarianism and be an educational platform? Or does it want to be a viable vehicle for policy changes and for those who are seeking elected office?” In recent presidential election cycles, the party has mostly followed the latter path. In 2016 the party nominated former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, a former Republican with less than die-hard libertarian credentials. That led to the strongest Libertarian performance in the history of the party, over 4 million votes. But some of those more pragmatic electoral choices paved the way for a more hard-core, liberty movement — namely the Mises Caucus — to gain support within the party. “(The Mises Caucus) bring an edgier, younger vibe to the party,” said Steven Nekhaila, a director at large for the Libertarian National Committee. “The ‘prags’ were more in the respectability politics camp. The Mises Caucus has more of an in your face type of approach.” That “in your face” approach hasn’t come without controversy. Longtime Libertarian Party activists like Thrasher have accused the Mises Caucus of “courting some of the worst traits of right-wing populism,” and the Mises Caucus-affiliated state party in New Hampshire has made controversial posts, including one on Martin Luther King Jr. Day in 2022 that said “America isn’t in debt to black people, if anything, it’s the other way around.” (The post was later deleted.) But even with the inter-party tensions, at least one former mainstream elected official who has experience with going for the Libertarian Party nomination thinks that Kennedy should give it a shot. “I strongly feel that the Libertarian Party could be legitimate, but they allow this clown show to take place,” said Lincoln Chafee, a former presidential candidate who pursued the Libertarian Party nomination in 2020, referring to some of the off-the-wall candidates like Vermin Supreme who have sought the nomination in the past. “There is a natural linking between Libertarians and RFK Jr.’s campaign.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at pschaefer@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @p_s_schaefer .   YOUR VIP PASS TO THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE : Dive into the heart of global security with POLITICO's Global Playbook at the 2024 Munich Security Conference. Gain exclusive insights and in-depth analysis as author Suzanne Lynch navigates the crucial discussions, key players and emerging trends that will shape the international security landscape. Subscribe now to Global Playbook and stay informed .     WHAT'D I MISS? — Trump’s first criminal trial will start March 25, judge says: Former President Donald Trump’s first criminal trial will start on March 25 as scheduled , a judge said in New York today as he denied Trump’s attempts to throw out the charges. The case involves hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels. The schedule means Trump will spend weeks in court instead of on the campaign trail as he pivots to a general election campaign against President Joe Biden. — FBI informant charged with lying about Joe and Hunter Biden’s ties to Ukrainian energy company: An FBI informant has been charged with lying to his handler about ties between President Joe Biden, his son Hunter and a Ukrainian energy company . Alexander Smirnov falsely told FBI agents in June 2020 that executives associated with the Ukrainian energy company Burisma paid Hunter and Joe Biden $5 million each in 2015 or 2016, prosecutors said today. Smirnov told the FBI that a Burisma executive had claimed to have hired Hunter Biden to “protect us, through his dad, from all kinds of problems,” prosecutors said. — Fani Willis takes the stand as she fights to stay on Trump criminal case: Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis took the stand today to defend herself against efforts to remove her from the prosecution of the former president . Willis had initially sought to block efforts by Donald Trump and several co-defendants to compel her testimony. But she opted to withdraw her objection today after hours of testimony from special prosecutor Nathan Wade, who was probed about his relationship with Willis. — Bipartisan House lawmakers working to finalize military aid-border bill: A bipartisan group of lawmakers plans to roll out their alternative proposal to send military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan and secure the border today, one of the Republican organizers said. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told POLITICO a compromise Ukraine-border funding bill would be unveiled today — the last day before the House leaves D.C. for a week-plus recess — with a group of four bipartisan co-sponsors. The centrist lawmaker acknowledged they don’t have wide GOP buy-in on the package yet. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 MANCHIN’S VP — Sen. Joe Manchin hasn’t yet said whether he’ll launch a third party bid for president. But if he does, he already has some ideas of who he wants as his running mate . “Hypothetically, if I was picking my running mate, really who I would ask right now is Mitt Romney,” the West Virginia Democrat said during a Q&A at a City Club of Cleveland breakfast today — a stop on the nationwide “listening tour” he launched after announcing he would forgo a reelection bid in 2024. Romney is also not running for reelection this year. ‘SENATOR JUDAS’ — While Nikki Haley has, until recently, run a fairly positive campaign, she has endured relentless criticism from Donald J. Trump and others in his orbit. Her 22-year-old son, Nalin Haley, is not so inclined to pull his punches , writes the New York Times. Mr. Haley, who has become a more familiar presence on the trail with his mother, introduced her at events over the weekend, taking some pointed jabs at her one-time Republican rivals. He has a nickname for Senator Tim Scott: Senator Judas. Another former rival who went full-bore for Mr. Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, draws Mr. Haley’s comparisons (derogatory) to Pennywise, the clown from “It.” SECRET SERVICE PROTECTION — A congressional advisory committee has voted in favor of granting Nikki Haley US Secret Service protection after the GOP presidential candidate requested the enhanced security citing threats she is facing, CNN reports. The recommendation now heads to the desk of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who will make the final decision based on multiple factors, the source said. Mayorkas, who earlier this week became the first Cabinet secretary to be impeached in 150 years, is currently traveling in Germany for the Munich Security Conference. The protective detail is expected to be approved and Haley would get a protective detail as soon as next week, a second source familiar with the matter told CNN. AROUND THE WORLD Palestinians pray for those killed in the Israeli bombing of the Nusseirat refugee camp in the Gaza Strip at Al Aqsa Hospital today. | Adel Hana/AP HOSPITAL ATTACK — Israeli forces stormed the main hospital in southern Gaza today , hours after Israeli fire killed a patient and wounded six others inside the complex. The Israeli army said it was a limited operation seeking the remains of hostages taken by Hamas, reports POLITICO EU. The raid came a day after the army sought to evacuate thousands of displaced people who had taken shelter at the Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. The southern city has been the main target of Israel’s offensive against Hamas in recent weeks. The military said it had “credible intelligence” that Hamas had held hostages at the hospital and that the remains of hostages might still be inside. Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the chief military spokesperson, said forces were conducting a “precise and limited” operation there and would not forcibly evacuate medics or patients. Israel accuses Hamas of using hospitals and other civilian structures to shield its fighters. Gaza’s Health Ministry spokesperson Ashraf al-Qidra said Israel had launched a “massive incursion” with heavy shooting that wounded many of the displaced people who had sheltered there. He said the military had ordered medics to move all patients into an older building that was not properly equipped for their treatment. “Many cannot evacuate, such as those with lower limb amputations, severe burns, or the elderly,” he said in an interview with the Al Jazeera network. Separately, Israeli airstrikes killed at least 13 people in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, 10 civilians — mostly women and children — and three fighters from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, an ally of Gaza’s Hamas militants. The strikes came just hours after a rocket attack from Lebanon killed an Israeli soldier in what was the deadliest of daily exchanges of fire along the border since the Oct. 7 start of the war in Gaza. It also underscored the risks of a broader conflict.   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS : From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      NIGHTLY NUMBER Over 200 The number of packages of medium-range ballistic missile components and other weapons intended for the Houthi militant group that the U.S. Coast Guard intercepted in an operation earlier this year, they announced today. 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Tom Suozzi’s win in New York is worse for the GOP than corporate media is telling you!

The GOP failed on immigration...again

DEAN OBEIDALLAH

FEB 14, 2024

On Tuesday, Democrat Tom Suozzi crushed his GOP opponent in the special election to fill the congressional seat vacated by indicted former Rep. George Santos.  Now if the Republican had won, we would’ve seen non-stop corporate media stories for days declaring 2024 was going to be “Red Wave,” “Democrats are facing a bloodbath in November,” a “Red tsunami is on the way,” and other BS they peddled in the lead up to the 2022 midterm.

But with Suozzi—who I’ve known since our days at law school--defeating his opponent in a district that Republican Santos had won by nearly eight points, we instead see articles downplaying it. For example, the NY Times’s Nate Cohn telling us today, “Democrats claim another victory, although it doesn’t necessarily add more clarity about November.”

Here’s the truth: It doesn’t matter if the corporate media gets what happened because I’m betting the GOP leadership does and they know it’s bad. I’m talking very, very bad.

How can I say that? Simple, the GOP made the number one issue in this swing district special election “immigration.” Or more precisely, ginning up the fear of migrants and how they were going to destroy our nation, bring crime, etc.  

In fact, Republican PACs spent nearly $7 million to attack Suozzi on this issue with ads calling him the “Godfather of the Border Crisis” –which caused a rebuke from Italian American organizations given the smear that Italians are tied to the mafia. They incessantly ran ads with an old video clip of Suozzi saying, “I kicked ICE out of Nassau County.” (That line from Suozzi was from 2007 when he was Nassau County Executive and it was about ICE officers who had refused to coordinate with local police and who even broke down the door of innocent people because they had the wrong address.)

And everywhere Suozzi’s GOP opponent Mazi Pilip went, she spoke about the issue with lines like, "The third congressional district residents worry about our border crisis."  In fact, a poll released a week before the election found that voters responded that immigration was the Republican candidates top strength.

In response, though, Suozzi didn’t avoid the issue. Instead, he offered policy proposals to address concerns and told voters the truth, explaining, “We've had a problem on our border that started 35 years ago…The border crisis on our southern border is also a Washington,. D.C., crisis. Because nobody's cut a deal nobody's negotiated to actually solve this problem.” He candidly added that instead of fixing it, some have “been trying to weaponize it for political purposes for decades.” 

Suozzi even crashed his opponents press conference two weeks ago where she was fear mongering on the immigration issue, telling the press, “I’ve proposed concrete ideas about what needs to be done. She has not. I’m willing to debate, she’s not willing to debate.” He added, “I’m willing to tell you exactly where I stand on issues and I’ll answer any of your questions; she will not.”

And in worse news for the GOP, Suozzi then went on the offensive on immigration in the last weeks of the campaign by vocally supporting the proposed legislation championed by President Biden that would provide a massive $20 billion dollar investment in border security. What was his GOP opponent’s response to that proposed border security legislation? She did what Donald Trump demanded and opposed it—just as the Republicans in the House and Senate did over the past week.

That only helped Suozzi who continually slammed his GOP opponent on that point in the closing days of the campaign, telling local news, “She says she’s concerned about the border but she opposes the bipartisan solution that would actually close the border.” It’s clear people want policies to address issues, not GOP political games. 

Suozzi also made another issue a visible part of the campaign: Abortion. Democratic outside groups, including House Majority PAC, ran ads slamming Pilip on abortion, featuring a video of where she described herself as “pro-life.”  And in the only televised debate that the Republican candidate would agree to, Pilip dodged questions from Suozzi on whether she would describe herself as “pro-choice.” She also wouldn’t say whether she’d vote to protect abortion access at the federal level.

We know the issue of reproductive freedom animates people to vote because it’s personal. In fact, nothing is more personal than Republicans enacting laws that force a woman against her will to carry a fetus to term.

The GOP gets that as well which is why they pumped millions into this race to see if the “scare people about Brown immigrants” could be the silver bullet. It wasn’t. Instead, Suozzi-who was leading by only four points in polls a week before the election—won by nearly eight points. That means given Santos won the same district by eight points just two years earlier, Suozzi managed a 16-point swing in favor of Democrats.

There is something else though that the media is not picking up about what Suozzi did in this race. He continually reminded voters of the chaos in the GOP controlled House and called them out for not enacting policies to help Americans. That was the very point Suozzi made on my SiriusXM show last month as he slammed the infighting in the GOP House. In contrast, his message was “we have to work together to actually solve problems, to help the people, he added, “That is what people are clamoring for." (You can watch clip below.)

The Democrats victory in this special election tells us a few things. Abortion is and will remain a key issue for Democrats as long as the GOP continues to enact barbaric laws that force women to carry a fetus to term against their will. Voters in swing districts reject the GOP’s fear mongering on immigration and clearly have no tolerance for Trump/GOP’s political theater. And voters—as Suozzi stated—are clamoring for people to enact legislation that will help them and their families.  All of this favors the Democrats in 2024—bigly! 

https://deanobeidallah.substack.com/p/tom-suozzis-win-in-new-york-is-worse?r=kpx7j