POLITICO NIGHTLY: How an incumbent mayor became an underdog in Chicago

 

View in browser   BY CALDER MCHUGH KOCH PROPAGANDA: Presented by Americans for Prosperity Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot participates in a forum with other mayoral candidates. | Erin Hooley/AP Photo CRIME AND PUNISHMENT — It’s not easy to unseat a big-city mayor, particularly in Chicago, the nation’s third-largest city. Richard J. Daley and his son, Richard M. Daley, served in the post for more than 40 years combined. Between 1989 and 2019, Chicago only had two mayors: the younger Daley and Rahm Emanuel. But after one term in office, Mayor Lori Lightfoot looks to be in trouble. While there isn’t much public polling, surveys in recent months suggest she’s trailing Democratic Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia in the Feb. 28 election. And in a crowded field of candidates, Lightfoot might even be in danger of not making the April runoff that will take place if no candidate receives a majority of the votes. When Lightfoot was first elected in 2019, she was feted as the first Black woman and first openly gay mayor of Chicago. While she has won praise for progress on her community development plans on the city’s South and West sides, Lightfoot has battled with unions representing police officers and teachers, and opponents are hammering on the point that she hasn’t done enough about the crime rate in the city. To discuss the Chicago mayor’s race, Nightly spoke with Shia Kapos , the author of POLITICO’s Illinois Playbook. This conversation has been edited. Why does it look like Mayor Lightfoot is in trouble? Like big-city mayors all over the country, she’s taken the blame for all the socio-economic, societal and institutional impacts of Covid-19 and the George Floyd protests, which have included a spike in crime and carjackings. It’s happening across the country, but in a big city like Chicago, where crime has always been an issue, it’s even more so. Now she’s facing eight challengers. What is it, specifically, about how Lightfoot has responded to those issues you mention that’s made her vulnerable to those challengers?  A lot has to do with perception. Many of Chicago’s residents — those who live in neighborhoods with historically high and historically low crime rates — are frustrated with her performance and see crime rising around them. Lightfoot is putting more resources into neighborhoods to combat crime on the ground, but it’s not something that can be fixed overnight. The Police Department has released numbers showing murders are down and carjackings are down. But that hasn’t seemed to change perception. Some people think it’s as dangerous as it’s ever been in Chicago, which isn’t true. Statistics from the 1980s and ’90s show that. So along with battling eight challengers for her job, Lightfoot is trying to get a message across that the city is turning a corner on crime. Who are Lightfoot’s most significant challengers? Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia is her most formidable opponent. He has been a part of the Chicago political scene going back to Mayor Harold Washington. Lightfoot also faces six other Black candidates, who could cut into support that might otherwise go toward her. And interestingly, there is only one white candidate, Paul Vallas, a former Chicago Public Schools chief who also ran for mayor four years ago. How has Garcia differentiated himself from Lightfoot? What has he put forth as his vision for the city? And why in your view does it look like he’s in pole position? The irony in your question is that he just came out with a public safety policy statement that political observers say mirrored Lightfoot’s but for calling for the police chief to be fired. Garcia has set himself apart by saying he will be “collaborative,” which is a dig at Lightfoot, who has been criticized as an agitator. She came into office with a mandate to shake things up and piss people off and she did that — curbing power by aldermen, for example. That tough attitude works when things are going well in Chicago, but some residents see it as a problem when the city is struggling as it has been with tackling crime. There’s also an elephant in the room: her personality. Her supporters say there’s a double standard in how Lightfoot is treated. When former Mayors Rahm Emanuel or Richard M. Daley cursed, for example, onlookers seemed amused or even proud of the tough Chicago mayor’s aggressiveness. When Lightfoot does it, people have taken offense — unless it’s been aimed at former President Donald Trump. It’s a Democratic town, after all. What’s something that you’ve seen on the ground or heard from people in the know that you’ve found particularly notable or surprising? I’m surprised that individual donors aren’t stepping up more. The election is Feb. 28 and you haven’t seen as many big names backing any of the candidates (beyond union support). They’re apparently waiting to put their money on the two candidates who make it to the April 4 runoff. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on Twitter at @calder_mchugh .         KOCH PROPAGANDA: A message from Americans for Prosperity: Dear 118th Congress: How will you be defined? Like those before you, will you be known for partisanship and political theater? Or, will you help solve the economic crises of our time? For too long, conventional wisdom has been that divided government is a free pass for gridlock. You can be the Congress that bucks that trend and makes life more affordable. Americans need you to succeed. Will you? Learn more at www.Dear118Congress.com.   WHAT'D I MISS? Eric Adams outside the West Wing following a 2021 meeting with President Joe Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images — Eric Adams pressures Biden to address migrant crisis as New York costs soar: “There’s no more room” in New York City to house asylum seekers, Mayor Eric Adams said today, putting new pressure on the Biden administration to immediately address the migrant crisis. “We’re at that point,” Adams said during POLITICO’s The Fifty: America’s Mayors, a virtual interview on the sidelines of the U.S. Conference of Mayors in Washington. Some 40,000 migrants have arrived in New York City from the southern border since last year, with an additional 3,000 coming during just one week this month. Adams wants more funding from Washington to plug what he says could be a $2 billion hole in the city’s budget for migrant housing and other services. — U.S. prepping major military package for Ukraine: The U.S. is gearing up to announce a major new weapons package for Ukraine on Friday , as top military leaders from around the world gather in Germany to discuss how to help Kyiv in its fight against Russia, according to three U.S. officials and another person familiar with the discussions. While the next tranche will include additional artillery, ammunition and armor — likely Stryker armored combat vehicles — the U.S. is not expected to sign off on American M1 Abrams tanks, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the talks ahead of an announcement. The Biden administration currently has no plans to send the Abrams, the Army’s 60-ton main battle tank, the people said. — Senate announces hearing date on Taylor Swift’s ticket fiasco: The full Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing Jan. 24 in the aftermath of Ticketmaster’s meltdown for fans hoping to score tickets to Taylor Swift’s latest tour , it announced today. There was bipartisan interest from the House Energy and Commerce Committee, too, for answers following the Ticketmaster meltdown in November. “At next week’s hearing, we will examine how consolidation in the live entertainment and ticketing industries harms customers and artists alike. Without competition to incentivize better services and fair prices, we all suffer the consequences,” said Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), chair of the Subcommittee on Competition Policy, Antitrust and Consumer Rights.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING : What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today .     AROUND THE WORLD EU ENCROACHES ON PUTIN — For weeks, there’s been a new sight on Armenia’s dusty mountain roads, writes Gabriel Gavin . Among the aging Russian Ladas and imported German cars, you’ll spot a fleet of shiny SUVs with the blue and gold-starred flag of the European Union mounted on the front. Peer through the tinted glass and you’ll see half a dozen sets of body armor and helmets piled in the back. In September, towns and villages in the former Soviet Republic came under fire from neighboring Azerbaijan, while Azerbaijani troops pushed across the border to capture strategic heights. The hostilities, known to many Armenians as the Two Day War, concluded with a Western-backed ceasefire, but claimed the lives of hundreds of soldiers on both sides. Just weeks after the clashes, the first of about 40 EU civilian monitors began arriving in the region , driving out daily to inspect the tense demarcation line that divides the two South Caucasus nations, amid constant reports of shelling, gunfire and ceasefire breaches. Armenia is, on paper at least, one of Russia’s closest allies and a member of the Kremlin-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, as the shells rained down in September, calls from Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for the CSTO to intervene fell on deaf ears, with the bloc eventually only agreeing to dispatch a toothless ‘fact-finding’ mission. With anger growing towards Russia as the humanitarian situation worsens, a series of unprecedented protests have been held in Armenia, demanding a withdrawal from the CSTO and support from the West instead. The EU has responded by taking a more active role in the region. On Thursday, the European Parliament will vote on a motion that “strongly condemns the latest military aggression by Azerbaijan in September,” and “underlines the EU’s readiness to be more actively involved in settling the region’s protracted conflicts.”      KOCH PROPAGANDA INTENDED TO MISLEAD:       KOCH IS STILL IN RUSSIA! A message from Americans for Prosperity:     NIGHTLY NUMBER 10,000 The number of people Microsoft laid off today — totaling almost 5 percent of its workforce — in the midst of industry-wide cuts in the tech sector, after a boom in tech jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic. RADAR SWEEP TRUTH TRENDS ON TIKTOK — TikTok is expanding the use of “state-affiliated media” labels to apply in more than 40 markets that alert users when the mobile application determines that certain content is being influenced by their local government. The pilot version of the rollout began last year after Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, when propagandist media organizations like RT, Sputnik, TASS and dozens of others had the label added to their videos. The China-based application is behind other social networks with the implementation, like YouTube, which rolled out a label for state-funded broadcasters in 2018, and Facebook and Twitter, both of which instituted similar policies in 2020. Back in March, TikTok said it would cut off content that originated from Russia in response to the country’s new restrictions on speech over the invasion, but continued to allow prominent state media accounts to post. TechCrunch’s Sarah Perez has the full report.   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today .     PARTING WORDS [Clockwise from bottom left] Govs. Katie Hobbs (Ariz.), Kristi Noem (S.D.), Brad Little (Idaho), Eric Holcomb (Ind.) and Kathy Hochul (N.Y.). | POLITICO illustration/Photos by AP HOME COOKING — If you’d sat in the Wyoming statehouse as Gov. Mark Gordon issued his State of the State address last week, it may have seemed as if the end times were near, writes David Siders . Not only had the “misguided” energy policies of the Biden administration “cost our nation dearly these past two years,” the Republican governor said, but “this winter, there are families in America – the richest and most advanced country in the world – living under a very real threat of freezing in the dark.” “Leaner times appear likely,” he said. “Economic uncertainties,” he added, “may conspire against us.” But Gordon did have one exception to the Armageddon he was describing: He and his state were doing a bang-up job. “The state of Wyoming,” Gordon said, “is strong, and her future is bright.” Across the nation in this season of inaugural and State of the State addresses, the sense of looming catastrophe is seemingly everywhere. In New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat and chair of the National Governors Association, suggested the “notion of the American dream is harder to achieve for too many people.” In Idaho, Republican Gov. Brad Little pointed to “flashing red lights in the economy” and accused Washington, D.C. of “driving America towards an economic cliff.” And in South Dakota, Republican Gov. Kristi Noem saw misery coming both from Washington, where “our Constitutional freedoms are under assault,” and in grocery stores she said she’s visited in recent months, where she said about a quarter of the shoppers she’s seen in line have had to put something back because they couldn’t pay for it. The remarks may reflect both the Republican instinct to play up down times with a Democrat in the White House and the Democratic instinct not to boast too hard under the same circumstances. But they also come at a time when inflation has begun to recede nationally, the job market remains robust and unemployment is at a 50-year low. Like the seasoned pols they are, the governors made a point of offering some self-aggrandizing carve outs to their forecasts of doom. Specifically, they — and their state alone — are doing it right . Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .      KOCH PROPAGANDA - THE DIRTY ENERGY POLLUTERS      STILL IN RUSSIA! CONGRESS IS DYSFUNCTIONAL                 BECAUSE OF THE DIM WITS KOCH GOT ELECTED! A message from Americans for Prosperity: Congress at a Crossroads: Americans are facing a cost-of-living crisis. Divided government can’t be an excuse to do nothing. The 118th Congress can drive a policy agenda to make life more affordable by reining in spending to get inflation under control, cutting red tape to bring down energy costs, and expanding opportunities for fulfilling work. But to do that, Washington needs to rise above the political dysfunction to get things done. Americans can’t afford to wake up two years from now to a country on the same path. Learn how we can change course at www.Dear118Congress.com.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Katherine Long @katherinealong Ari Hawkins @_AriHawkins   FOLLOW US

POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA