POLITICO Nightly: Biden’s axis of victory

BY CHARLIE MAHTESIAN President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign rally at Girard College on Wednesday in Philadelphia. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images THE BIG THREE — If you were following the final weeks of the 2020 presidential campaign, you probably noticed a familiar cadence: Philadelphia. Detroit. Atlanta. Miami. Phoenix. Those were the places that Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Mike Pence traveled to over and over in the frantic 10 days before Election Day. The Detroit and Philadelphia media markets led the way — between them, they received 15 campaign stops in total. That travel pattern made perfect political sense at the time: they were the biggest metropolitan areas in the biggest and most critical battleground states. Win one by a large enough margin, and you win the state. Win enough swing states, and you win the White House. There are still 157 days to go until Election Day, but it’s already clear that the final stretch of the 2024 campaign will look similar — with one probable exception. Florida’s lurch to the right likely means Miami isn’t going to command nearly as much attention. So what will replace it? Milwaukee. The reason is simple. Milwaukee, Detroit and Philadelphia are shaping up to be Biden’s axis of victory this fall, the three big cities upon which Democratic fortunes will rise or fall. Given his struggles in the Sun Belt, Biden’s reelection path of least resistance is to shore up the Democratic Blue Wall and win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — the Rust Belt giants he won back from Trump in 2020. With victories in those three states, he can afford to lose Arizona, Georgia and even Nevada, all of which he captured in 2020. But to run the table in the trio of essential industrial swing states, it’s going to require sweeping victories in their largest cities — Milwaukee, Detroit and Philadelphia — all of them historically Democratic strongholds whose margins have traditionally powered statewide Democratic victories. Biden will need robust turnout and the typical landslide margins out of those cities to counter the big margins Trump is expected to run up in the rural counties in those states. In all three cities, there are troubling trend lines for Biden. Each has seen declining voter turnout across recent election cycles. In Philadelphia, city turnout dropped to 43 percent in the 2022 midterm elections, down from 49 percent in 2018. In this year’s Democratic presidential primary, turnout was down 17 percent over 2020 (in both elections, Biden had essentially locked up the nomination by the time the state voted). Over the past decade In Milwaukee, writes Marquette University’s John Johnson, who studies city voting trends, turnout has dropped sharply in the city’s majority Black neighborhoods from its high levels during the Obama years. Detroit has likewise experienced weak turnout: In 2022, Detroit turnout ran more than 20 percentage points behind the rest of the state . Those trends, along with the general lack of enthusiasm for Biden among many Black voters and Trump’s gains among non-white voters, is why Biden and Harris have been paying such close attention to the three cities. There’s no risk that Trump could win any of them, or that he will get even close. But that’s not the problem. All three states have been so close in the past two presidential elections that even a small drop-off in turnout can make a huge difference. Wisconsin, for example, was decided by fewer than 21,000 votes in 2020 (Madison can’t do it alone). The margin of victory in Michigan in 2016 was fewer than 11,000 votes. That’s why earlier this week, Biden and Harris together visited Philadelphia, where they highlighted the campaign’s pivot to the Black vote. The rally represented the president’s fifth trip to the Philadelphia area this year and his seventh to Pennsylvania in 2024 alone, write Myah Ward and Brakkton Booker . Biden can point to the lowest Black unemployment rate on record and policy achievements in areas like student debt relief and funding for historic Black colleges, among other things. But so far, it hasn’t moved the dial far enough. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll reported that Biden is winning just 49 percent among Black voters in six of the most competitive swing states. In Wisconsin, that number is 40 percent. Those are stunning numbers when compared to 2020, when Biden won nine out of every 10 Black votes. And in the case of big cities like Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, Biden’s softness comes in spite of Trump’s frequent depiction of them as post-apocalyptic hellscapes. There’s still time to correct course. But that will require acknowledging the three cities are the campaign’s most urgent task at the moment. If Biden’s standing in them doesn't improve, there’s a good chance there is no second term. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie . WHAT'D I MISS? — Hamas no longer poses major threat to Israel, Biden says: Israel has degraded Hamas’ military capabilities significantly since October, and the militant group no longer poses a major threat to Israel , President Joe Biden said Friday. Biden offered that analysis while outlining a new three-phase cease-fire proposal Israel has offered Hamas, which would lead to the release of all hostages and a permanent end to fighting. “The people of Israel should know they can make this offer without any further risk to their own security, because they’ve devastated Hamas forces over the past eight months,” Biden said. “At this point, Hamas is no longer capable of carrying out another Oct. 7.” — Trump attacks ‘rigged’ trial in rambling post-verdict speech: In a rambling, 33-minute news conference inside Trump Tower on Friday, the former president relitigated details of the trial, revived old grievances and charged ahead with his presidential campaign. He repeated many of the complaints and accusations that he had throughout the trial — that the case “was very unfair,” that the “devil” judge was conflicted and that the district attorney was ignoring crime in New York. And, as he has before, he cast himself as the victim of a legal — and political — system bent against him. “It’s my honor to be doing this, but it’s a really unpleasant thing, to be honest,” Trump said. “But it’s a great honor.” — Republicans stick by Trump, the felon — even in battleground states: Senior elected Republicans across the country are racing to Donald Trump’s side following his criminal conviction — even those who’ve criticized him openly in the past. Speaker Mike Johnson went beyond defending the former president, taking the unusual step of calling for the Supreme Court to intervene in Trump’s appeal. House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) made clear on Friday that he’d take new steps to investigate the team that got the conviction in New York, writing Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg to seek his Capitol Hill testimony on the “political prosecution” of Trump. Even the handful of GOP senators who once resisted Trump’s influence on the party were critical of the conviction. — Hill leaders officially invite Netanyahu to speak before Congress: Congressional leaders have officially invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to speak before Congress , capping off weeks of behind-the-scenes negotiations. The invitation, sent in a Friday letter, doesn’t state when Netanyahu will appear on Capitol Hill. But Speaker Mike Johnson has said he expects it to take place before lawmakers depart for August recess. The letter is signed by Johnson, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.   THE GOLD STANDARD OF TECHNOLOGY POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like technology, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists. Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our technology reporting team—including Brendan Bordelon, Josh Sisco and John Hendel—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of technology policy and its impact across industries. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.   NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 ELECTORAL BAND-AID — A temporary fix allowing President Joe Biden to appear on this fall’s ballot cleared the Ohio Senate on Friday as the Republican-dominated legislature concluded a rare special session, reports the Associated Press . The vote came one day after the House approved the measure, along with a ban on foreign nationals contributing to state ballot campaigns. The latter measure had been demanded by the Senate, which approved it Friday. Both bills now head to Republican Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, who is expected to sign both. DRILL BABY DRILL — Former president Donald Trump suggested to oil executive donors this month that he could ease the Federal Trade Commission’s scrutiny of their industry’s mergers and acquisitions if he returns to the White House, writes the Washington Post. PREPPING FOR PRIMETIME — The presidential campaigns of Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump know what they want to talk about in their high-stakes television debate next month, and now they're trying to convince news network CNN to play ball, reports Reuters. Biden and Trump meet in Atlanta on June 27 for the first of two debates they have agreed to, a showcase that will draw millions of viewers and could cement many voters' preferences in a closely fought election on Nov. 5. Biden has three preferred topics , according to a campaign memo viewed by Reuters: abortion rights, the state of democracy and the economy. Trump's team has pointed to immigration, public safety and inflation as key issues ahead of the debate. DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE — Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia announced Friday he has switched his registration to independent , raising questions about his political plans since the move could help his chances should he seek elected office again in a state that has turned heavily Republican, writes the Associated Press. Manchin, 76, has often been at odds with the Democratic Party and an obstacle to many of President Joe Biden’s legislative priorities. But he played a central role in helping Biden get a landmark climate change and health care bill over the finish line in 2022. He had already announced in November that he wouldn’t seek re-election to the Senate, giving Republicans a clear path to picking up his West Virginia seat in their bid to retake the majority next year.   YOUR DAILY DOWNLOAD ON ALL THINGS TECH: Today marks the 200th episode of the POLITICO Tech podcast! That’s 200 incisive conversations with global policymakers, tech executives, social activists and other influential voices reshaping our world, one algorithm at a time. Join host Steven Overly for a daily dive into the major political and policy battles around artificial intelligence, election disinformation, competition with China, TikTok, microchips and much more. SUBSCRIBE AND LISTEN TODAY via Apple, Spotify, Simplecast or your preferred podcast player.   AROUND THE WORLD RUSSIAN SNUB — Russia will not be invited to the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings after all, the French presidency announced Thursday after talks of a Russian presence at the event stoked tensions between France and allied nations. “These are not the right conditions for [Russia] to be included, given the war of aggression launched in 2022, which has only intensified in recent weeks,” an Elysée official told reporters. Last month, D-Day organizers said that President Vladimir Putin would not be invited but that there were plans for some Russian representation to attend given the country’s historic role in the war. Officials from the United Kingdom, the United States and two other World War II allies expressed concerns over the move, with some saying they were caught off-guard. BELGIAN DEADLOCK — Call it the Super Sunday of Belgian politics . On June 9, Belgians will elect a new federal parliament, regional parliaments and members of the European Parliament all on the same day. The results risk sending the small yet fragmented country into a months-long institutional standstill over who holds the power. It already holds the world record of longest period without a government — it needed 541 days in 2010-2011 to get it done. NIGHTLY NUMBER 8 The number of Senate Republicans who are vowing to oppose major legislation and Biden nominees led by the Democratic Senate, following Thursday’s guilty verdicts for former President Donald Trump in New York. PARTING WORDS ‘MY PRECIOUS’ — Devoted fans of J.R.R. Tolkien’s Middle-earth have been shocked by the recent news of a new Lord of the Rings motion picture called The Hunt for Gollum, due for release in 2026. What is this movie actually about? Who is hunting for Gollum and why? More importantly, will The Hunt for Gollum end up retconning the classic books that established Tolkien’s world, The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings? As it turns out, there might not be cause for too much alarm. Ryan Britt writes for Inverse that Tolkien himself was forever tinkering with his depiction of the famous character (also known as Smeagol) in revisions across the decades. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1992: A sea of umbrellas covers the Great Lawn in Central Park, as New Yorkers gathered for the 7th annual 10K AIDS Walk. | Joe Major/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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Cohen RIPS Trump’s Lawyer AFTER VERDICT

 

MeidasTouch

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Political Beatdown host Michael Cohen has some harsh words for Donald Trump’s trial lawyer Todd Blanche that he exclusively shares on his show with the MeidasTouch Network. Visit https://meidastouch.com for more! Support the MeidasTouch Network: https://patreon.com/meidastouch Add the MeidasTouch Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... Buy MeidasTouch Merch: https://store.meidastouch.com Follow MeidasTouch on Twitter: https://twitter.com/meidastouch Follow MeidasTouch on Facebook: https://facebook.com/meidastouch Follow MeidasTouch on Instagram: https://instagram.com/meidastouch Follow MeidasTouch on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@meidastouch

Stormy was 'pretty emotional' over verdict: Daniels' lawyer speaks out on Trump's felony conviction

 

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#stormydaniels #DonaldTrump #Trump

Stormy Daniels' lawyer Clark Brewster joins Katy Tur, Chris Jansing and Andrea Mitchell about Daniels' reaction to former President Trump being found guilty on 34 felony counts, saying she feels "vindicated." » Subscribe to MSNBC: https://www.youtube.com/msnbc Download our new MSNBC app for the latest breaking news and daily headlines at a glance: https://www.msnbc.com/information/dow... Follow MSNBC Show Blogs MaddowBlog: https://www.msnbc.com/maddowblog ReidOut Blog: https://www.msnbc.com/reidoutblog MSNBC delivers breaking news, in-depth analysis of politics headlines, as well as commentary and informed perspectives. Find video clips and segments from The Rachel Maddow Show, Morning Joe, The Beat with Ari Melber, Deadline: White House, The ReidOut, All In, Last Word, 11th Hour, and Alex Wagner who brings her breadth of reporting experience to MSNBC primetime. Watch “Alex Wagner Tonight” Tuesday through Friday at 9pm Eastern. Connect with MSNBC Online Visit msnbc.com: https://www.msnbc.com/ Subscribe to the MSNBC Daily Newsletter: https://link.msnbc.com/join/5ck/msnbc... Find MSNBC on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/msnbc/ Follow MSNBC on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MSNBC Follow MSNBC on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/msnbc #stormydaniels #DonaldTrump #Trump

Appeals Court STICKS DAGGER Through Trump’s Last-Ditch Scheme

 

MeidasTouch

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A unanimous 3 judge panel of DC Court of Appeals—including 2 Trump appointed judges—just killed off any attempt by Trump to argue that he can’t get a fair trial in DC because of all the Democrats in the jury pool. And his latest hot take Michael Popok explains how this new case will be used both in NY when Trump appeals the results on the NY criminal case, and in DC to deny his future motion for a new venue. Head to https://TryFum.com/legalaf and get a FREE GIFT with the JOURNEY PACK today when you use code LEGALAF Visit https://meidastouch.com for more! Support the MeidasTouch Network: https://patreon.com/meidastouch Add the MeidasTouch Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... Buy MeidasTouch Merch: https://store.meidastouch.com Follow MeidasTouch on Twitter: https://twitter.com/meidastouch Follow MeidasTouch on Facebook: https://facebook.com/meidastouch Follow MeidasTouch on Instagram: https://instagram.com/meidastouch Follow MeidasTouch on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@meidastouch

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Legal AF Podcast

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Felon

JOYCE VANCE MAY 31

Last night, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that what happened to him wasn’t a prosecution. He called it a persecution. He was wrong. It’s a conviction. Donald Trump is now a convicted felon.

Americans have let Trump shake their faith in many of our democratic institutions our country is built on, From the start of his first campaign, Trump denigrated immigrants as criminals. He challenged confidence in our elections, the work of the intelligence community, the Justice Department, military leaders, and perhaps most dangerously of all, public health officials during a deadly pandemic. Now, and unsurprisingly, he’s after the jury system that convicted him. He’s spent months calling prosecutors, judges, and witnesses corrupt and putting them and their families in danger.

Trump has plenty of surrogates to do his bidding. He has no concerns about exposing the 12 brave Americans who served on the jury that convicted him to the risk of harassment and violence. NBC reported that a non-profit that conducts public interest research found posts that contained addresses of people claimed to be jurors on a message board known for pro-Trump content.

It is long past time to draw a line and stop the damage Trump is doing to democracy. But still, Republicans pander to him shamelessly.

At the time the Access Hollywood Tape was released, Senator Lee said, “I respectfully ask you [Trump] with all due respect, to step aside. Step down,” in a Facebook video. He mentioned the women in his family and said that if someone spoke to them like Trump had, “I wouldn’t hire that person, wouldn’t want to be associated with that person … I certainly don’t think I would feel comfortable hiring that person to be the leader of the free world.” But Lee has endorsed Trump in this election and apparently has no intention of backing away.

Independents and other voters may take a different view. Guilt is a powerful word. There are polls that suggest it may exert a gravitational pull over some voters who might have otherwise voted for Trump. We are in for a long, hard time heading into the November election, where the future of democracy will hang in the balance, not metaphorically, like candidates sometimes say it will in the next election, but in a very real, concrete sense.

Hunter Biden, the President’s son, goes on trial Monday. Keep that in mind as Donald Trump claims the system has been politicized against him.

Trump will be sentenced on July 11, five days before the start of the Republican National Convention. There has been a lack of clarity in the reporting about the sentence Trump faces. That’s because of the way New York handles this type of Class E felony, which a friend in a New York DA’s office called “loosey goosey.” As I understand it, the Judge can sentence to a range as high as 1 3/4 to 4 years, but it will be up to the Parole Board to determine how much of that sentence he actually serves. And the Judge does not have to impose a custodial sentence, he can go all the way down to probation if he chooses to. My understanding of how this works is still evolving, and I’ll update you as we learn more.

What we do know is that, like in every other case, the probation department will conduct an assessment of the now-convicted defendant and create a presentence investigation that provides the Judge with the information necessary to arrive at the appropriate sentence. In his press conference this morning, the District Attorney did not say whether he would seek a custodial sentence. There is every reason to ask for one here, including Trump’s repeated, atrocious violations of the gag order in the case. It is a first time, nonviolent offense, so the Judge may not impose custody, but the People have every right to ask for it here.

Even if the Judge imposes a custodial sentence, expect to see Trump remain free on bond during the pendency of the appeal. That would be consistent with the principle that permits a defendant who raises serious issues on appeal to do so. Trump does have some serious issues to raise, whether or not he succeeds. I don’t expect him to, but he is entitled to the same right all defendants have to pursue an appeal. The Judge would be well within his rights to condition an appeal bond on strict adherence to the terms of the gag order.

The issues we will likely see surface on appeal include:

• Whether Stormy Daniels’ testimony exceeded what was permissible and unduly prejudiced Trump. This will be contested, but the Judge let her testimony in to complete the story of the crime, and in any event, defense questions opened the door to her testimony.

• Whether it was error to permit the DA to use a federal campaign finance fraud crime as the object offense that converted the misdemeanor into a felony. This is a pure legal issue, and the weight of the evidence appears to be on the People’s side, but there are some unique issues here that need to be litigated.

• Whether the Judge was correct to permit the jury to return a verdict that was unanimous about the object crime but not the means used to accomplish it. We’ve discussed this previously and again, it’s a legal issue where the DA appears to have a strong argument.

• Whether there was sufficient evidence to support the verdict. Defendants frequently argue this on appeal but only rarely win. The question is whether a reasonable jury could have found the defendant guilty, and there was sufficient evidence here to support that conclusion.

There will be others too, but these are some of the main ones to expect. None of this will happen until after Trump is sentenced in July, and the process will take time, so we will deal with it when it happens.

This sentiment, or something akin to it, is circulating widely on social media.

I’m Interested in what you think about it. Do you believe this is true, or is this another spin effort by Trump?

Leave a comment

Here’s my response: Trump was convicted by a jury of his peers who heard all the evidence and found him guilty. We should trust the jury.

Trump claims the indictment was a Democratic ploy. There is no evidence to support that. It doesn’t make sense that 12 jurors, picked from a randomly summoned pool with Trump’s lawyers’ full involvement, a jury that included members who claimed Truth Social or the Wall St. Journal as primary news sources, would have unanimously found him guilty if he wasn’t. Occam’s Razor says to look first to the simplest answer. There is no need for conspiracy theories here. The jury convicted Trump because he was guilty.

Trump will spin the verdict, as he did this morning in a long and less than lucid press conference.

Americans should ignore him and use the same common sense the jury did. The jurors saw every piece of evidence first hand; they considered it all together. They decided it met the government’s burden of proving Donald Trump guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. In our system of justice, that is their decision to make.

It is well worth making this point with anyone who questions the verdict. What approach would they rather have American justice use? A king? Is it Donald Trump who now metes out justice in America?

A better question: Why aren’t there calls for Trump to step down as the nominee? That is how any other politician would be treated.

Trump said the real verdict on his case will come on November 5. I hope so. I’m ready to get to work on that, and I bet you are too.

We’re in this together,

Joyce