POLITICO Nightly: Biden’s axis of victory

BY CHARLIE MAHTESIAN President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign rally at Girard College on Wednesday in Philadelphia. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images THE BIG THREE — If you were following the final weeks of the 2020 presidential campaign, you probably noticed a familiar cadence: Philadelphia. Detroit. Atlanta. Miami. Phoenix. Those were the places that Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Mike Pence traveled to over and over in the frantic 10 days before Election Day. The Detroit and Philadelphia media markets led the way — between them, they received 15 campaign stops in total. That travel pattern made perfect political sense at the time: they were the biggest metropolitan areas in the biggest and most critical battleground states. Win one by a large enough margin, and you win the state. Win enough swing states, and you win the White House. There are still 157 days to go until Election Day, but it’s already clear that the final stretch of the 2024 campaign will look similar — with one probable exception. Florida’s lurch to the right likely means Miami isn’t going to command nearly as much attention. So what will replace it? Milwaukee. The reason is simple. Milwaukee, Detroit and Philadelphia are shaping up to be Biden’s axis of victory this fall, the three big cities upon which Democratic fortunes will rise or fall. Given his struggles in the Sun Belt, Biden’s reelection path of least resistance is to shore up the Democratic Blue Wall and win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — the Rust Belt giants he won back from Trump in 2020. With victories in those three states, he can afford to lose Arizona, Georgia and even Nevada, all of which he captured in 2020. But to run the table in the trio of essential industrial swing states, it’s going to require sweeping victories in their largest cities — Milwaukee, Detroit and Philadelphia — all of them historically Democratic strongholds whose margins have traditionally powered statewide Democratic victories. Biden will need robust turnout and the typical landslide margins out of those cities to counter the big margins Trump is expected to run up in the rural counties in those states. In all three cities, there are troubling trend lines for Biden. Each has seen declining voter turnout across recent election cycles. In Philadelphia, city turnout dropped to 43 percent in the 2022 midterm elections, down from 49 percent in 2018. In this year’s Democratic presidential primary, turnout was down 17 percent over 2020 (in both elections, Biden had essentially locked up the nomination by the time the state voted). Over the past decade In Milwaukee, writes Marquette University’s John Johnson, who studies city voting trends, turnout has dropped sharply in the city’s majority Black neighborhoods from its high levels during the Obama years. Detroit has likewise experienced weak turnout: In 2022, Detroit turnout ran more than 20 percentage points behind the rest of the state . Those trends, along with the general lack of enthusiasm for Biden among many Black voters and Trump’s gains among non-white voters, is why Biden and Harris have been paying such close attention to the three cities. There’s no risk that Trump could win any of them, or that he will get even close. But that’s not the problem. All three states have been so close in the past two presidential elections that even a small drop-off in turnout can make a huge difference. Wisconsin, for example, was decided by fewer than 21,000 votes in 2020 (Madison can’t do it alone). The margin of victory in Michigan in 2016 was fewer than 11,000 votes. That’s why earlier this week, Biden and Harris together visited Philadelphia, where they highlighted the campaign’s pivot to the Black vote. The rally represented the president’s fifth trip to the Philadelphia area this year and his seventh to Pennsylvania in 2024 alone, write Myah Ward and Brakkton Booker . Biden can point to the lowest Black unemployment rate on record and policy achievements in areas like student debt relief and funding for historic Black colleges, among other things. But so far, it hasn’t moved the dial far enough. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll reported that Biden is winning just 49 percent among Black voters in six of the most competitive swing states. In Wisconsin, that number is 40 percent. Those are stunning numbers when compared to 2020, when Biden won nine out of every 10 Black votes. And in the case of big cities like Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, Biden’s softness comes in spite of Trump’s frequent depiction of them as post-apocalyptic hellscapes. There’s still time to correct course. But that will require acknowledging the three cities are the campaign’s most urgent task at the moment. If Biden’s standing in them doesn't improve, there’s a good chance there is no second term. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie . WHAT'D I MISS? — Hamas no longer poses major threat to Israel, Biden says: Israel has degraded Hamas’ military capabilities significantly since October, and the militant group no longer poses a major threat to Israel , President Joe Biden said Friday. Biden offered that analysis while outlining a new three-phase cease-fire proposal Israel has offered Hamas, which would lead to the release of all hostages and a permanent end to fighting. “The people of Israel should know they can make this offer without any further risk to their own security, because they’ve devastated Hamas forces over the past eight months,” Biden said. “At this point, Hamas is no longer capable of carrying out another Oct. 7.” — Trump attacks ‘rigged’ trial in rambling post-verdict speech: In a rambling, 33-minute news conference inside Trump Tower on Friday, the former president relitigated details of the trial, revived old grievances and charged ahead with his presidential campaign. He repeated many of the complaints and accusations that he had throughout the trial — that the case “was very unfair,” that the “devil” judge was conflicted and that the district attorney was ignoring crime in New York. And, as he has before, he cast himself as the victim of a legal — and political — system bent against him. “It’s my honor to be doing this, but it’s a really unpleasant thing, to be honest,” Trump said. “But it’s a great honor.” — Republicans stick by Trump, the felon — even in battleground states: Senior elected Republicans across the country are racing to Donald Trump’s side following his criminal conviction — even those who’ve criticized him openly in the past. Speaker Mike Johnson went beyond defending the former president, taking the unusual step of calling for the Supreme Court to intervene in Trump’s appeal. House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) made clear on Friday that he’d take new steps to investigate the team that got the conviction in New York, writing Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg to seek his Capitol Hill testimony on the “political prosecution” of Trump. Even the handful of GOP senators who once resisted Trump’s influence on the party were critical of the conviction. — Hill leaders officially invite Netanyahu to speak before Congress: Congressional leaders have officially invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to speak before Congress , capping off weeks of behind-the-scenes negotiations. The invitation, sent in a Friday letter, doesn’t state when Netanyahu will appear on Capitol Hill. But Speaker Mike Johnson has said he expects it to take place before lawmakers depart for August recess. The letter is signed by Johnson, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.   THE GOLD STANDARD OF TECHNOLOGY POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. 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Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.   NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 ELECTORAL BAND-AID — A temporary fix allowing President Joe Biden to appear on this fall’s ballot cleared the Ohio Senate on Friday as the Republican-dominated legislature concluded a rare special session, reports the Associated Press . The vote came one day after the House approved the measure, along with a ban on foreign nationals contributing to state ballot campaigns. The latter measure had been demanded by the Senate, which approved it Friday. Both bills now head to Republican Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, who is expected to sign both. DRILL BABY DRILL — Former president Donald Trump suggested to oil executive donors this month that he could ease the Federal Trade Commission’s scrutiny of their industry’s mergers and acquisitions if he returns to the White House, writes the Washington Post. PREPPING FOR PRIMETIME — The presidential campaigns of Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump know what they want to talk about in their high-stakes television debate next month, and now they're trying to convince news network CNN to play ball, reports Reuters. Biden and Trump meet in Atlanta on June 27 for the first of two debates they have agreed to, a showcase that will draw millions of viewers and could cement many voters' preferences in a closely fought election on Nov. 5. Biden has three preferred topics , according to a campaign memo viewed by Reuters: abortion rights, the state of democracy and the economy. Trump's team has pointed to immigration, public safety and inflation as key issues ahead of the debate. DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE — Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia announced Friday he has switched his registration to independent , raising questions about his political plans since the move could help his chances should he seek elected office again in a state that has turned heavily Republican, writes the Associated Press. Manchin, 76, has often been at odds with the Democratic Party and an obstacle to many of President Joe Biden’s legislative priorities. But he played a central role in helping Biden get a landmark climate change and health care bill over the finish line in 2022. He had already announced in November that he wouldn’t seek re-election to the Senate, giving Republicans a clear path to picking up his West Virginia seat in their bid to retake the majority next year.   YOUR DAILY DOWNLOAD ON ALL THINGS TECH: Today marks the 200th episode of the POLITICO Tech podcast! That’s 200 incisive conversations with global policymakers, tech executives, social activists and other influential voices reshaping our world, one algorithm at a time. Join host Steven Overly for a daily dive into the major political and policy battles around artificial intelligence, election disinformation, competition with China, TikTok, microchips and much more. SUBSCRIBE AND LISTEN TODAY via Apple, Spotify, Simplecast or your preferred podcast player.   AROUND THE WORLD RUSSIAN SNUB — Russia will not be invited to the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings after all, the French presidency announced Thursday after talks of a Russian presence at the event stoked tensions between France and allied nations. “These are not the right conditions for [Russia] to be included, given the war of aggression launched in 2022, which has only intensified in recent weeks,” an Elysée official told reporters. Last month, D-Day organizers said that President Vladimir Putin would not be invited but that there were plans for some Russian representation to attend given the country’s historic role in the war. Officials from the United Kingdom, the United States and two other World War II allies expressed concerns over the move, with some saying they were caught off-guard. BELGIAN DEADLOCK — Call it the Super Sunday of Belgian politics . On June 9, Belgians will elect a new federal parliament, regional parliaments and members of the European Parliament all on the same day. The results risk sending the small yet fragmented country into a months-long institutional standstill over who holds the power. It already holds the world record of longest period without a government — it needed 541 days in 2010-2011 to get it done. NIGHTLY NUMBER 8 The number of Senate Republicans who are vowing to oppose major legislation and Biden nominees led by the Democratic Senate, following Thursday’s guilty verdicts for former President Donald Trump in New York. PARTING WORDS ‘MY PRECIOUS’ — Devoted fans of J.R.R. Tolkien’s Middle-earth have been shocked by the recent news of a new Lord of the Rings motion picture called The Hunt for Gollum, due for release in 2026. What is this movie actually about? Who is hunting for Gollum and why? More importantly, will The Hunt for Gollum end up retconning the classic books that established Tolkien’s world, The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings? As it turns out, there might not be cause for too much alarm. Ryan Britt writes for Inverse that Tolkien himself was forever tinkering with his depiction of the famous character (also known as Smeagol) in revisions across the decades. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1992: A sea of umbrellas covers the Great Lawn in Central Park, as New Yorkers gathered for the 7th annual 10K AIDS Walk. | Joe Major/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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