MARS VS. VENUS — At first glance, tonight’s Fox News “Great State Debate” between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and California Gov. Gavin Newsom seems like must-avoid TV: Two of the thirstiest pols on the planet engaged in a televised, 90-minute spectacle designed to remind us how our nation is tearing itself apart. Yet there’s good cause to watch it, and not just for the bloodsport. The event, billed as a debate over the future of America, is the conversation we almost certainly won’t get in next year’s presidential election, between two big-state governors who figure to be on the national stage for years to come. It is Mars and Venus in action, with each defending and promoting the values of distinct American civilizations. DeSantis carries the red state banner; Newsom represents the blue states. Abortion, tax policy, education, immigration, crime, the role and size of government and all the culture war staples will be front and center. Boiled down to its essence, American politics has always been a story about population migration and its after-effects. And that’s what makes a debate between the governors of California and Florida so compelling. They represent two of the three biggest states in the nation, one seemingly in eclipse, the other in ascent, both shaped by tidal waves of newcomers seeking the latest iteration of the American Dream. California’s growth was once so rapid that it picked up new House seats by the handful, decade after decade. Decennial reapportionment gave the state eight new House seats after the 1990 Census; after the 1960 Census, it picked up seven seats. To read historian Kevin Starr’s vivid accounts of California at mid-century is to be reminded of the power of the American experiment. Today, for all its natural beauty and promise, it increasingly looks like a sclerotic, one-party state that is hemorrhaging population — it lost a House seat after the most recent census, for the first time in its 173-year history. DeSantis has seized on California’s woes as an indictment of Democratic governance. His own state is growing at a fast rate, but seems to lack the aspiration of California at its zenith. Increasingly red Florida is too often in the national news for the wrong reasons, frequently appearing small-minded, cruel and intolerant, as Newsom has been quick to point out. Implied in the very creation of a debate between two governors who aren’t running against each other is a truth about the two likely presidential nominees, President Joe Biden and Donald Trump: Neither is capable of articulating a compelling vision of governance or their party’s principles. The face-off between the two Gen X governors is so gripping precisely because each is capable of making those arguments, and is cocksure in his ideological views. DeSantis looks west toward California and sees Woke Mordor; Newsom’s idea of Florida is The Hunger Games’ Panem, but with more sunshine. They have spent the better part of the past two years in mutually advantageous conflict — attacking each other in the media, fundraising off each other, even appearing on their rival’s home turf to disparage one another. “We have had a great experiment, a great test in governance philosophies,” DeSantis said in a March speech at the Ronald Reagan Library in California’s Simi Valley. “If you look over the last four years, we’ve witnessed a great American exodus from states governed by leftist politicians imposing leftist ideology and delivering poor results.” The prior year, amid DeSantis’ successful reelection run, Newsom took out ads over the Fourth of July holiday in Florida saying “freedom is under attack in your state.” “I urge all of you living in Florida to join the fight,” Newsom says in the spot, “or join us in California, where we still believe in freedom: freedom of speech, freedom to choose freedom from hate, and the freedom to love. Don’t let them take your freedom.” In the run-up to tonight’s debate, the two camps have haggled over logistical details to ensure neither has even the slightest hint of an advantage. Newsom’s camp has primed the media — and his party — by reminding them that part of his mission is to defend Biden, and that the deck might be stacked against him since the debate is being moderated by Fox News’ Sean Hannity. For DeSantis, the goal is different: His flagging presidential campaign is in need of an adrenaline shot. It looks increasingly unlikely that the 2024 general election will have a series of robust, substantive presidential debates — or perhaps any debates at all. For that reason alone, the “Great State Debate” is not to be missed. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie .
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