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The Morning Digest will be off Monday, but we’ll be back in your inbox on Tuesday.
I just came back from an extraordinary week at the America Votes Summit in Washington, DC, and I’m eager to tell you about it.
The mood there was hopeful. Despite Donald Trump’s fevered campaign to transform America into an autocracy, attendees were clear-eyed but optimistic about pro-democracy forces halting his efforts in November. If Peter Magyar and patriotic Hungarians could bring an end to Viktor Orban while facing even tougher obstacles, we can do the same with Trumpism.
It was also amazing to meet and learn from so many readers of The Downballot in person! When you spend all day, every day behind a computer screen, connecting with readers face-to-face is so energizing and just gives you an entirely different perspective. I particularly loved hearing about all the different ways that people make use of our offerings, from our newsletter to our data sets to our podcasts.
Speaking of podcasts, our live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast at America Votes was an exceptional experience! Elliott Morris and I had a blast nerding out about data with our audience, and we got to answer some truly excellent questions. If you weren’t able to tune in live, you can catch it here.
And as always, if you love our work and want to support The Downballot, we’d be honored if you’d consider becoming a paid subscriber.
If you prefer to support us via a donation, you can also give on our ActBlue page.
Thank you so much,
David Nir, publisher
Morning Digest: House Democrats are going big on offense—in some deep red turf
Major new ad bookings outline a battlefield that has Republicans on their back foot
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Leading Off
House
The top super PACs involved in House races for both parties unveiled their first wave of fall ad reservations on Thursday, but while Republicans are largely playing defense, the new data shows that Democrats are especially eager to go on the offensive in seats that previously appeared safe for the GOP.
The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC announced that it had booked $272 million in TV and digital advertising across 54 unique media markets, while the Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership said it had reserved $153 million in 37 markets.
As is almost always the case, neither PAC identified which specific House seats it’s targeting. That’s in part because many media markets, especially large ones, often cover multiple competitive districts. Only once they start airing ads will groups like HMP and CLF decide how much of their ad budgets they’ll assign to each race.
The two PACs have converged on many of the same areas. To take just one example, both outfits have booked over $5 million in Lansing, Michigan, where Republican Rep. Tom Barrett is defending the swingy 7th District.
But while both sides are devoting considerable resources toward holding vulnerable seats, HMP is taking a more aggressive approach than its counterpart.
“Nearly 80% of these reservations are in offensive districts—underscoring HMP’s commitment to aggressively expanding the House battlefield and putting more seats in play than ever before,” the PAC said in a statement.
Those offensive opportunities go well beyond the seats Republicans narrowly won in 2024, or constituencies that became more Democratic thanks to new maps in California and Virginia.
In Tennessee, for instance, HMP has booked close to $1.6 million in the Nashville market, which includes the 5th District. While Republican Rep. Andy Ogles easily won a second term in 2024 as Trump carried his district by a wide 58-40 margin, this year’s race is looking considerably more eventful.
Ogles is not only plagued by a litany of scandals, but he’s also struggled to raise money to defend himself. On top of that, he faces opposition in the August GOP primary from former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher. Ogles ended the first quarter of the year with a woeful $85,000 in his campaign coffers, though he has Trump’s endorsement as he tries to secure renomination.
Meanwhile, both of the Democrats vying to take on Ogles, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder and Nashville Metro Councilor Mike Cortese, have managed to outraise the incumbent. Molder has been the standout, banking $1.3 million as of March 31.
HMP has also booked $670,000 in the adjacent media market of Lexington, Kentucky, which is home to the open 6th District.
This constituency, which Republican Rep. Andy Barr is giving up to run for the Senate, is an unlikely Democratic target, but not an impossible one. While Trump won it 57-42 in 2024, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear carried it in a 60-40 landslide the previous year. Both parties have competitive primaries on May 19.
HMP has designs on widening the playing field further to the south as well. It’s directing almost $20 million across the three largest media markets in Florida, a state the super PAC did not spend money in during either the 2022 or 2024 election cycles.
These reservations, which are split between Miami, Orlando, and Tampa, come less than a week before the state legislature is set to begin a special session on redistricting called by Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Republicans, however, have yet to release a proposed new map as they continue to debate whether an aggressive new gerrymander would backfire in what’s shaping up to be a strong Democratic year.
That political climate explains why CLF has yet to book ad time in any of the three red states noted above, or in many other GOP-held seats that HMP is targeting, like Alaska’s At-Large District or Montana’s 1st.
“This initial reserve reflects the reality that this cycle, again, will be fought on a narrow map,” CLF said in a statement. “This reserve shows we are committed to defending our own while aggressively supporting our candidates on offense.”
The PAC, though, is trying to make up a shortfall in competitive districts where Republican candidates have struggled to raise money.
In Flint, Michigan, for example, CLF has booked $2.5 million to target Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet in the 8th District. Trump carried this district 50-48, but Navy veteran Amir Hassan, the GOP frontrunner in the August primary, finished the first quarter with just $65,000 on hand.
McDonald Rivet’s $3.4 million war chest was over 50 times larger than her opponent’s, but HMP is still not taking anything for granted. The PAC has booked close to $4.2 million to help the Democratic incumbent.
All of these early bookings, though, come with one important caveat. While they allow outside groups to lock in cheaper ad rates before the high demand for TV time drives prices up, they can always change—and almost certainly will.
As the political picture evolves, advertisers can add money to existing reservations or direct money to new markets. They can also scale back, or outright cancel, bookings as Election Day draws closer. As we have for many years, The Downballot will continue to track bookings made by HMP and CLF, as well as other top groups, throughout the election cycle.
Governors
MI-Gov
Former state House Speaker Tom Leonard dropped out of the Republican primary for Michigan’s open governorship on Thursday. Leonard, who struggled to raise money or notch much support in the polls, bemoaned that “[o]ver the last several weeks, this race has gotten increasingly negative” in a statement announcing his departure.
Leonard did not call out any of his now-former rivals by name, but the primary has largely been defined by the nasty battle between Rep. John James and wealthy businessman Perry Johnson. The GOP field also includes former Attorney General Mike Cox, state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, and pastor Ralph Rebandt.
House
UT-01
Four people went on the record to accuse Salt Lake City Councilwoman Eva Lopez Chavez of sexual misconduct in a new story published by the Salt Lake Tribune on Wednesday.
Lopez Chavez is seeking the Democratic nomination for Utah’s 1st Congressional District, which her accusers cited as a reason they decided to speak to the paper now.
One, fellow Councilwoman Victoria Petro, said that in 2022, Lopez Chavez grabbed her throat and “pushed me back against a pillar so that my back was against the wall and told me, ‘The only reason I still f--- men is because a woman hasn’t shown me what I really want.” Three others, two of whom are also elected officials, described similar encounters with Lopez Chavez.
Lopez Chavez’s attorney responded to the Tribune’s questions by denying she’d displayed “inappropriate” behavior toward three of her accusers, while claiming the fourth described an incident that “never occurred.”
Obituaries
John Seymour
Former Sen. John Seymour, whose brief tenure from 1991 to 1992 made him the last Republican to represent California in the upper chamber, died Saturday at the age of 88.
Seymour was serving in the state Senate in 1990 when U.S. Sen. Pete Wilson, a fellow Republican who had been reelected two years earlier, defeated Democrat Dianne Feinstein in the race for governor. Wilson appointed Seymour to replace him ahead of what would be a challenging special election in 1992.
Seymour held off conservative U.S. Rep. William Dannemeyer, but he badly lost to Feinstein in what proved to be a watershed election in California politics that headlined what became known as the Year of the Woman. While Republican George H.W. Bush had taken the Golden State’s electoral votes in 1988, Bill Clinton’s victory marked the start of a Democratic presidential winning streak that’s in no danger of ending.
The Sacramento Bee has more on Seymour’s career in its obituary.
Poll Pile
MA-Sen (D): University of New Hampshire:
Ed Markey (inc): 46, Seth Moulton: 33, Alex Rikleen: 6.
Feb.: 35-23 Markey.
MA-Sen: UNH:
Markey (D-inc): 55, John Deaton (R): 32. (Feb.: 56-27 Markey)
Moulton (D): 56, Deaton (R): 25. (Feb.: 59-23 Moulton)
NH-Sen (R): UNH:
John Sununu: 56, Scott Brown: 19.
Jan.: 48-25 Sununu.
NH-Sen (D): UNH:
Chris Pappas: 61, Karishma Manzu: 18.
Jan.: 65-11 Pappas.
NH-Sen: UNH:
Pappas (D): 49, Sununu (R): 42. (Jan.: 50-45 Pappas.)
Pappas (D): 52, Brown (R): 38. (Jan.: 52-42 Pappas.)
RI-Sen (D): UNH:
Jack Reed (inc): 65, Connor Burbridge: 15.
RI-Sen: UNH:
Reed (D-inc): 52, Raymond McKay (R): 34.
MA-Gov: UNH:
Maura Healey (D-inc): 52, Michael Minogue (R): 32. (Feb.: 56-27 Healey)
Healey (D-inc): 53, Mike Kennealy (R): 32. (Feb.: 55-28 Healey)
Healey (D-inc): 51, Brian Shortsleeve (R): 29. (Feb.: 58-28 Healey)
NH-Gov: UNH:
Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): 47, Cinde Warmington (D): 39.
NM-Gov (D): Emerson College for KRQE News 13:
Deb Haaland: 40, Sam Bregman: 24.
NM-Gov (R): Emerson:
Gregg Hull: 21, Duke Rodriguez: 10, Doug Turner: 9, undecided: 61.
RI-Gov (D): UNH:
Helena Foulkes: 45, Dan McKee (inc): 11, Gregory Stevens: 3, undecided: 45.
Feb.: 34-18 Foulkes.
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