Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Your Election Day guide

Tuesday, November 8, 2022

POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Your Election Day guide

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PUTTING IT TO A VOTE — Massachusetts voters could rewrite state history tonight — an exclamation point on the end of an otherwise sleepy election cycle in which ballot questions generated more interest and more spending than open-seat races for several of the state’s top offices.

With polls already open, let’s cast ahead to what I’ll be watching when they close at 8 p.m.:

THE POTENTIAL FIRSTS — Massachusetts could elect its first female and openly lesbian governor in Maura Healey; its first all-female governor and lieutenant governor team in Healey and Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll; its first Black female attorney general in Andrea Campbell; and, if Republicans pull off an upset, its first Black female secretary of state in Rayla Campbell. Healey could also break the so-called attorney-general curse.

IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TURNOUT — Secretary of State Bill Galvin somewhat sardonically referred to this election as more of a “midterm exam than a midterm choice” given the seeming inevitability of a Democratic statewide-office sweep dampening enthusiasm. He predicts turnout will be about 2.2 million — far less than the 2.75 million voters who cast ballots in the 2018 governor's race. More than 1 million people have already voted by mail or early in-person. Early voting skews Democratic, so Republican gubernatorial nominee Geoff Diehl is hoping rising costs will motivate GOP and independent voters to cast ballots for him today.

Secretary of State Bill Galvin speaks to reporters at the Massachusetts State House on Monday, Nov. 7, 2022. | Lisa Kashinsky/POLITICO

HEALEY’S COATTAILS — Should Healey defeat Diehl tonight, look to see how far her star power extends down the ballot. Democrats have been running more or less as a unified team since the primary, and Healey has expended her political capital in several state legislative and county law enforcement races. Most of her primary endorsees won. The general election — in which Healey is in some cases endorsing directly against Charlie Baker, the outgoing governor she frequently evokes in her own campaign — presents another test.

WHICH REPUBLICANS WIN — Speaking of Baker, it seems like he’s got one slate of Republican candidates and the state party has another. The power struggle between Baker and MassGOP Chair Jim Lyons briefly ensnared auditor nominee Anthony Amore, who chose Baker’s support over the party’s. And it’s produced a crop of GOP candidates — including state Rep. Shawn Dooley, who’s challenging Democratic state Sen. Becca Rausch, and Bristol County Sheriff Tom Hodgson — who are running away from the conservative-leaning, pro-Donald Trump party leadership and toward the moderate Baker. Tuesday’s results could affect both Baker’s legacy as a political kingmaker and the expected post-election fight for state party chair.

BALLOT BATTLE VICTORS — Potentially the most unpredictable outcome this cycle is the fate of the four statewide ballot questions that would impose a new tax on the wealthiest residents (Question 1), regulate dental insurance (Question 2), expand alcohol licenses (Question 3) and strip undocumented immigrants of their access to driver’s licenses before the law approved earlier this year goes into effect (Question 4). Polling has shown majorities of voters support Questions 1, 2 and 4, and the “yes” coalitions for all three have outspent their respective opponents. But, as we learned in the primary, money can’t buy everything. The Boston Globe has a voter guide to key races and ballot questions.

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Here’s what I’m watching throughout the region tonight:

N.H. SENATE/HOUSE — Democrats got their wish when voters nominated a slate of hard-right, pro-Trump Republicans to take on incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan and Reps. Chris Pappas and Annie Kuster. Yet these races remain competitive — POLITICO’s chief forecaster, Steve Shepard, rates Hassan’s race against Don Bolduc and Pappas’ contest against Karoline Leavitt as “toss-ups.” How these races break tonight could provide an early indicator of the GOP’s strength nationwide.

R.I. 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT — Moderate Republican Allan Fung has turned a district President Joe Biden won by nearly 14 points in 2020 competitive . Fung’s early October polling lead over Democratic state Treasurer Seth Magaziner prompted outside groups to pour millions of dollars into opposing one candidate or the other. We’ll see whose efforts pay off.

MAINE GOVERNOR — The race between Democratic Gov. Janet Mills and former Republican Gov. Paul LePage has been billed as a clash of the state’s political titans. Mills heads into Election Day leading LePage in polls. The rematch between Democratic Rep. Jared Golden and former Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin appears tighter .

Want all these results at your fingertips? POLITICO's got them . Head to our governors results page , House results page , our Senate results page and catch me on our live chat after the polls close.

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CAMPAIGN MODE

— TRAIL MARKERS: Where will the statewide candidates watch the results come in tonight? Mostly in Boston.

Democrats Maura Healey, Kim Driscoll, Andrea Campbell, Diana DiZoglio, Ed Markey, Elizabeth Warren, Katherine Clark, Ayanna Pressley and Michelle Wu will gather at 8 p.m. at the Fairmont Copley Plaza hotel. Republicans Geoff Diehl, Leah Cole Allen and Jay McMahon are at the Boston Harbor Hotel beginning at 7 p.m.

But first the candidates are hitting polls throughout eastern Massachusetts:

HEALEY — visits the Somerville Public Library West Branch polling location at 12:20 p.m. and joins state Sen. Lydia Edwards’ Election Day gathering at Santarpio’s Pizza — an Eastie political tradition — at 1 p.m.

DRISCOLL — votes with her family at 8:30 a.m. at Witchcraft Heights Elementary School in Salem, visits the North Andover High School polling location at 9:45 a.m., greets volunteers in Leominster at 11:30 a.m. and joins the Eastie pizza party at 1 p.m.

CAMPBELL — votes at 8:30 a.m. at the Lower Mills Library, calls into GBH’s “Boston Public Radio” at 11:05 a.m., heads to Santarpio’s at 1 p.m. and joins Rep. Jake Auchincloss at a Newton polling location at 3:30 p.m.

BILL GALVIN — votes at 9:30 a.m. at the Thomas A. Edison Middle School in Brighton.

DIEHL — visits Martin’s Restaurant in Abington at 8 a.m.; votes at 9 a.m. at Whitman Town Hall; and greets voters at Plymouth South High School at 10 a.m., the Taunton Elks Lodge at 11 a.m. and at North Attleboro High School at noon.

ALLEN — votes at Danvers High School at 7:15 a.m. and greets voters at Gloucester High School at 8:15 a.m., Lynnfield High at 9:15 a.m., Dracut’s Richardson Middle School at 10:15 a.m. and Billerica’s Marshall Middle School at 11:15 a.m.

ANTHONY AMORE — votes at Winchester High School at 9 a.m.

YAHD SIGNS AND BUMPAH STICKAHS

— THE FINAL HOURS: Attorney General Maura Healey began the final full day of her campaign for governor where she started it in January — outside the Maverick MBTA station in East Boston, this time with much warmer weather.

“We’re going to win and we’re going to win big and strong because we’ve been working for it,” Healey told reporters. But, the Democrat who’s up by double digits in every poll, stressed: “We’ve never once taken anything for granted in this race.”

Republican Geoff Diehl shook hands with supporters holding signs in Braintree before heading for a Dorchester pub to continue campaigning. “I think we put everything we could into this race,” he told NBC10 Boston’s Alison King .

Democratic auditor nominee and state Sen. Diana DiZoglio talks to supporters after a Boston rally featuring Vice President Kamala Harris on Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022. | Lisa Kashinsky/POLITICO

Down the ballot, the bitter auditor’s contest came to a turbulent close with dueling text blasts about Democratic nominee state Sen. Diana DiZoglio . The first message, which hit phones from unknown senders Monday afternoon, amplified Republicans’ attacks against DiZoglio over her past work at an Alabama church that hosted a pastor with anti-gay views. DiZoglio has said she worked as a youth counselor at the church but left it as a young adult, and points to her support in this race from two prominent LGBTQ groups in the state. A spokesperson for Anthony Amore said the text messages, which included no disclosure or link to a website for who paid for them, did not come from the Republican’s campaign.

DiZoglio’s campaign followed up with its own text blast to Democrats and unenrolled voters touting her endorsements from Healey and Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey and trying to tie Amore to former President Donald Trump . “Diana’s opponents are launching desperate last-minute attacks because they are afraid of what she will uncover as auditor,” the text says.

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THE DOWN-BALLOT RACES

— AT A GLANCE: Key sheriff and district attorney races could reshape law enforcement policies in swaths of the state, and redistricting is throwing certain state legislative seats into play. Here are seven more down-ballot races I'm watching tonight:

BRISTOL COUNTY SHERIFF — The race between Republican incumbent Tom Hodgson and Democratic Attleboro Mayor Paul Heroux could be both a referendum on Trumpism and another regional test of voters’ appetite for progressive law enforcement policies. Hodgson hasn’t been endorsed by the former president, but he did serve as an honorary chair of Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign and has championed his hardline immigration policies to the point he offered to send inmates to help build a southern border wall (it didn’t happen). He hasn’t face a challenger since well before Trump was elected in 2016.

Heroux has tried to tie Hodgson to Trump, but the longtime sheriff counters that by regularly touting his support from moderate Republican Gov. Charlie Baker , a noted Trump nemesis. Heroux, in turn, has amassed the backing of top Democrats including Attorney General Maura Healey and Sen. Ed Markey, who’s openly feuded with Hodgson over the years.

Hodgson focuses on being “tough on crime” but faces criticism over his treatment of inmates and the suicide rate at his jails . He’s also been accused of using antisemitic tropes in advertising, which he denies. Heroux, who worked in the Philadelphia prison system before entering politics, has pledged a more evidence-based approach to the job but has been harangued by Hodgson over his comparative inexperience. He’s also embroiled in a labor dispute with the Attleboro firefighters union.

Outside groups are pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into the race. The Working Families Party has spent more than $242,000 in support of Heroux. Everytown for Gun Safety split nearly $200,000 between boosting Heroux and opposing Hodgson. The Baker-aligned Massachusetts Majority PAC had spent more than $124,000 backing Hodgson as of Monday night. The Sun Chronicle has your overview of the race; The Standard-Times and WPRI have your debate coverage.

The Bristol County sheriff’s race has tended to overshadow other prominent law enforcement races in southeastern Massachusetts: the Plymouth County district attorney race between incumbent Republican Timothy Cruz and progressive former prosecutor Rahsaan Hall ; the open-seat Barnstable County sheriff’s race between GOP state Rep. Tim Whelan and Democrat Donna Buckley; and the open-seat Cape and Islands district attorney race between Republican Dan Higgins and Democrat Robert Galibois.

Healey has endorsed the Democrat in all three races and a super PAC that’s spent nearly $35,000 backing Hall received $5,000 from former Gov. Deval Patrick. Republicans are hoping to keep all three seats. WBUR has handy questionnaires with the DA and sheriff candidates across the state, and a rundown of the Plymouth DA race .

PLYMOUTH AND BARNSTABLE SENATE DISTRICT — Democrat Susan Moran is facing a challenge from Republican Kari MacRae. MacRae was fired from Hanover High School last year over controversial TikTok videos and was the subject of a recall effort from the Bourne School Committee that was ultimately derailed by improper paperwork . The Cape Cod Times’ Sarah Carlon has the candidates on the issues .

SECOND ESSEX HOUSE DISTRICT — Baker-aligned Republican state Rep. Lenny Mirra is facing a challenge from Healey-backed Democrat and political newcomer Kristin Kassner. This North Shore race could be affected by redistricting, which jettisoned several towns from the Georgetown lawmaker’s current district and added new ones, complicating his path to reelection. The Salem News’ Julie Manganis talks to the candidates about the issues and about redistricting.

14TH ESSEX HOUSE DISTRICT — Republicans are eyeing state Rep. Christina Minicucci ’s Merrimack Valley seat as a potential pickup after the Democrat decided not to run for reelection in a district that neighbors Mirra’s and also underwent a drastic change in redistricting. Republican Joe Finn and Democrat Adrianne Ramos, both of North Andover, are squaring off for the seat. The Daily News of Newburyport’s Jim Sullivan has more on this race .

A message from Delta Dental of Massachusetts:

FROM THE DELEGATION

— REPUBLICANS' UPHILL BATTLES: The state’s nine U.S. representatives are up for reelection tonight. Rep. Jake Auchincloss is the only one without a Republican challenger. POLITICO's Steve Shepard rates every contest except for MA-09 as “solid Democratic,” while Rep. Bill Keating’s southeastern Massachusetts district is rated “likely Democratic.”

Here’s the lineup: Rep. Richard Neal faces Dean Martilli; Rep. Jim McGovern faces Jeffrey Sossa-Paquette; Rep. Lori Trahan faces former state Sen. Dean Tran; Assistant House Speaker Katherine Clark has a rematch against Caroline Colarusso; Rep. Seth Moulton is facing Bob May; Rep. Ayanna Pressley is facing Donnie Palmer; Rep. Stephen Lynch is squaring off against Robert Burke and Keating faces Jesse Brown . The Democrats are all far ahead of their Republican rivals in the money race, but a few — Keating, Trahan and McGovern — have still debated their opponents and run ads. No Republican notched more than 39 percent of the vote in the 2020 House races. See if anyone performs better this time.

Neal is spending part of his Election Day morning campaigning for Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster in New Hampshire; the two will visit a polling location in Concord at 9 a.m. He returns to Massachusetts to visit Longmeadow Democrats at 4 p.m. McGovern attends several standouts outside polling locations before joining the Worcester Democratic City Committee’s watch party at 7:30 p.m. at Nuestra. His rival, Sossa-Paquette, will also greet voters across the district.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren isn’t up for reelection this year. But she’ll cast her ballot (with Bailey) at 8:30 a.m. at the Graham & Parks School in Cambridge.

DATELINE BEACON HILL

— SHIFTING POLITICS: Secretary of State Bill Galvin said Monday that Democratic Party voter registration has fallen below 30 percent in reliably blue Massachusetts, Republican registration is at 8.9 percent and that unenrolled voters now make up more than 60 percent of those registered. Keep these stats in mind going forward, particularly for the next primary.

— “The Governor’s Council only denied 1 judge in 6 years; Here’s why,” by Luis Fieldman, MassLive: “The winner of the gubernatorial race on Election Day will have the power to shape the judiciary in the state for the next four years. After November 2, it will fall upon either Democratic candidate Maura Healey or Republican Geoff Diehl to nominate judges in Massachusetts. But while the governor is empowered to make nominations, the Governor’s Council can deny those decisions — an option it has rarely used in the recent past. In the past six years, only two out of 33 nominations — one judge and one parole board member — were denied a confirmation after being nominated by Governor Charlie Baker, according to an outgoing Governor’s Council member.”

FROM THE HUB

— “Boston Mayor Wu OKs new city voting map,” by Saraya Wintersmith, GBH News: “Boston Mayor Michelle Wu on Monday quietly signed the City Council–approved redistricting map, making official newly redrawn voting district boundaries for the next municipal election. Wu’s press office announced her approval on the eve of Election Day without much of a statement to address the map itself, or the controversial process that rendered it.”

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WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD BE READING

— “AP sources: Justice Dept. watchdog probing Mass. US attorney,” by Alanna Durkin Richer and Michael Balsamo, The Associated Press: “The Justice Department’s inspector general has opened an investigation of the top federal prosecutor in Massachusetts, prompted by U.S. Attorney Rachael Rollins’ appearance at a political fundraiser featuring first lady Jill Biden, The Associated Press has learned. An investigation by the department’s internal watchdog targeting one of the nation’s 93 U.S. attorneys — political appointees who are some of the highest-ranking federal law enforcement officials — is highly unusual.”

— "Boston attorney files lawsuit on behalf of Twitter employees facing layoffs," by Sharman Sacchetti, WCVB: "Boston attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan is filing a class action lawsuit on behalf of several Twitter employees who allege layoffs [that began] Friday are in violation of labor laws."

— Related: "Musk’s Twitter layoffs include 55 in Boston office," by Anissa Gardizy and Aaron Pressman, Boston Globe.

— “Two parents urge appeals court to overturn convictions in Varsity Blues college admissions scandal,” by Shelley Murphy, Boston Globe.

— “Mayflower Wind to honor existing contract terms,” by Bruce Mohl, CommonWealth Magazine.

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HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Tom Connors.

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