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Morning Digest: Five fundraising questions we have as we await first-quarter numbers
Why is this campaign finance report different from all other campaign finance reports?
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Leading Off
The first fundraising quarter of 2026 comes to an end on Tuesday evening, a deadline that will soon give us an updated look at the state of play in Senate and House races—including several that now look very different compared to just three months ago.
Each quarter, The Downballot collects the most relevant data for all congressional candidates in two charts, one each for the House and Senate. We’ll release updated versions soon after the April 15 reporting deadline.
But as we wait to pore over fresh numbers for revealing details, there are several questions we’ll be eager to answer.
1) Did two new Democratic Senate challengers open with a bang?
Former Rep. Mary Peltola delighted Democrats across the country in mid-January when she launched her campaign against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, while former National Security Council advisor Alexander Vindman made waves a few weeks later when he kicked off his bid to defeat GOP Sen. Ashley Moody in Florida.
Both challengers gave their party hope that, by expanding the Senate battlefield into states that Trump carried by double digits, they could overcome a difficult map and flip the chamber this fall. But while Peltola and Vindman both said they’d raised well over $1 million in their first day on the campaign trail, they face incumbents who have a long head start in fundraising.
After winning a second term in 2020, Sullivan spent the following years building up his war chest and finished December with almost $6 million in the bank. Moody, whom Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed last January to succeed Marco Rubio, had just over $5 million on hand at the end of last year.
And though Peltola faces no serious intraparty opposition, Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon joined the Democratic primary just days before Vindman entered the race.
Nixon has attracted considerably less attention than her primary rival, whose testimony before Congress sparked Donald Trump’s first impeachment, but Vindman and his allies will be watching to see whether she amasses the resources to mount a serious campaign ahead of the August primary.
2) Did a major endorsement and strong polling help a Minnesota Democrat reduce a big fundraising gap?
Rep. Angie Craig finished last year with close to $4 million banked in her campaign for Minnesota’s open Senate seat, more than four times what her top rival, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, had available. Despite that huge disadvantage, though, it’s Flanagan who’s had the most to smile about in the new year.
Both sides released polls in January showing Flanagan leading in the August Democratic primary, though they disagreed on just how firm her advantage was. Flanagan went on to secure a high-profile endorsement from retiring Sen. Tina Smith, while Craig made news of a different kind this month when she apologized for voting for the Laken Riley Act.
Craig is very likely to maintain her large cash advantage, but Flanagan is hoping that her strong string of good headlines will help her close the gap.
Republicans will also be eager to learn how Michele Tafoya, a former sportscaster who launched her campaign in January, performed in her first quarter in the race.
Tafoya, who has the NRSC’s support against several primary foes, will be the underdog in this blue-leaning state, especially following the backlash to ICE’s operations in and around the Twin Cities. A strong opening frame, though, could incentivize well-heeled Republicans to help Tafoya as they try to put Democrats on the defensive.
3) Does the oldest Republican in the House have to sweat his primary?
While House Democrats in their 70s and 80s face tough challenges from intraparty opponents who argue that it’s time for new representation, their GOP counterparts have largely avoided such criticism. But Rep. Hal Rogers, who is seeking a 24th term at the age of 88, will find out in May whether Republicans in eastern Kentucky are also eager for generational change.
Veteran GOP operative Kevin Smith, who’s in his early 40s and once interned for Rogers, announced in January that he would take on his old boss in the deep-red 5th District. While Smith did not mention Rogers in his announcement, he framed his campaign as a chance to usher in a new era.
But Rogers, who welcomed in 2026 with over $1 million in the bank, sees things differently. The congressman, who has Trump’s endorsement, responded to Smith’s campaign by highlighting his high-level spot on the powerful House Appropriations Committee.
4) Who has the upper hand in the packed primary for Steny Hoyer’s seat?
Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer announced in January that he would not seek reelection to the district he’s served since 1981, with the 86-year-old incumbent joking, “At this young age, it’s probably premature.”
The departure of Hoyer, who spent two decades as the number-two Democrat in the House, quickly set off a packed race to replace him in the 5th District, which is based in the suburbs of Washington, D.C. No fewer than 24 Democrats filed to run in the June primary for this safely blue seat, and there’s no obvious frontrunner three months out.
The first quarter will be an early test for the candidates looking to stand out from the rest, though a couple already have some prominent backers.
Hoyer is supporting Del. Adrian Boafo, who is his former campaign manager. Former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, though, has the endorsement of Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, a Maryland native who, perhaps for the final time, broke with her former No. 2.
Dunn, who defended the Capitol on Jan. 6, proved to be a prestigious fundraiser during his unsuccessful 2024 campaign for the neighboring 3rd District, and he said he brought in $2 million during the opening days of his new effort.
5) How much danger does a far-right favorite pose to a Utah congresswoman?
Republican Rep. Celeste Maloy got some unwelcome news in early March when former state Rep. Phil Lyman, a far-right politician who ran for governor of Utah in 2024, announced he would challenge her for renomination.
Maloy, who was first elected in 2023, has survived multiple near-death experiences during her short career in Congress, and the state’s new court-ordered congressional map adds another obstacle for her in the June primary for the 3rd District.
Maloy had just under $360,000 banked at the end of last year, which doesn’t give her much of a head start going into her new campaign. Lyman, however, began his campaign with less than a month to go before the end of the quarter.
The Downballot Podcast
The GOP gets walloped—in Florida
Democrats flipped not one but two districts in special elections on Tuesday night, and they managed it in Florida, of all places. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss how Democrats pulled off this most unlikely of feats in a state where their hopes have so often gone to die in recent years—and why Republicans should be particularly worried.
We’re also diving deep into Maryland politics with Baltimore Sun reporter Tinashe Chingarande, who explains why the Democrats’ hope of opening a new front in the redistricting wars ran aground in the Old Line State. But Senate President Bill Ferguson, the man who shut down any hopes of a remap, faces an unusual primary challenge that could end his long dominance over the legislature.
The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!
Governors
SC-Gov
Businessman Billy Webster, a co-founder of the payday loan company Advance America, announced Wednesday that he would seek the Democratic nomination for South Carolina’s open governorship.
The new candidate said he would “contribute my own funds in a way that is appropriate during the campaign,” though he didn’t indicate how much he had in mind.
Webster, who is trying to become the first Democrat elected governor in the 21st century, joins state Rep. Jermaine Johnson and attorney Mullins McLeod in the June 9 primary. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff on June 23.
House
NY-15
Public defender Dalourny Nemorin said Tuesday that she was suspending her primary campaign against Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres in New York’s 15th District, a safely blue constituency based in the central Bronx.
Nemorin’s departure, which comes two weeks before the April 6 candidate filing deadline, leaves former Assemblymember Michael Blake as Torres’ main intraparty opponent in the June 23 primary.
Attorneys General
TX-AG
Texas state Sen. Mayes Middleton, one of two candidates in the May 26 Republican runoff for attorney general, received an endorsement on Wednesday from Aaron Reitz, a former Department of Justice official who took fourth place in the March 3 Republican primary.
Middleton outpaced Rep. Chip Roy 39-32 in the first round, with state Sen. Joan Huffman and Reitz taking 15% and 14%, respectively. Huffman has not expressed a preference between the two remaining Republicans seeking to replace incumbent Ken Paxton, who chose to run for the Senate rather than seek a fourth term.
In more than one way, Reitz and Roy have similar backgrounds. They both held senior posts under Paxton, and both served as chief of staff to Sen. Ted Cruz. (Paxton endorsed Reitz, while Cruz supports Roy.) Despite those shared resume items, though, Reitz is anything but a fan of the congressman.
“Chip was the first elected official in America to demand that Paxton step down or be removed from office in 2020, and he was the leading national cheerleader pushing for Paxton’s impeachment and conviction in 2023,” Reitz said in a statement endorsing Middleton.
Reitz also piled on by highlighting Roy’s past clashes with Donald Trump, including his vote to recognize Joe Biden’s win.
“Mayes has always been aligned with President Trump,” Reitz continued. “Chip described Trump as ‘wrong, troubling, and impeachable’ in 2021 and was one of his loudest critics during the 2024 Republican primary election for president.”
Despite his habit of alienating powerful Republicans, though, Roy spent the first round of voting as the frontrunner—until the results began rolling in, that is.
The congressman, who is a member of the far-right Freedom Caucus, led in every single publicly available poll, and he even released data showing him on the cusp of winning the majority necessary to secure the GOP nod outright.
But Middleton, who runs an oil company and several other businesses, self-funded almost $14 million and ran a barrage of ads portraying Roy as disloyal to MAGA.
Trump, who called Roy “just another ambitious guy, with no talent” in 2024, has not taken sides in the race to replace Paxton. Observers, though, took note when Trump refrained from making eye contact with Roy when the two shook hands at the State of the Union address last month.
The congressman largely avoided attacking any of his rivals during the first round, but he recognized that he’d need to change his approach after his surprisingly weak second-place showing.
Roy used an interview with a conservative media outlet to bash Middleton as “a trust fund kid, who has never been in a courtroom, never practiced law, never prosecuted a bad guy, never been in the AG’s office.” Reitz had used that same argument against the man he’d dubbed “Mayes Middleweight,” though he memory-holed that nickname when he decided to endorse him.
The Democratic side is also headed to a second round, though it’s been a far more staid affair.
State Sen. Nathan Johnson led former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski 48-26 on March 3. Former federal prosecutor Tony Box, who fell just short of advancing, says he won’t issue an endorsement in the runoff.
Poll Pile
AL-Sen (R): Pulse Decision Science for the Club for Growth:
Barry Moore: 31, Steve Marshall: 26, Jared Hudson: 13.
The Club for Growth supports Moore.
MI-Sen (D): GSG for Mallory McMorrow:
Mallory McMorrow: 30, Abdul El-Sayed: 25, Haley Stevens: 23. (June: Stevens: 24, McMorrow: 20, El-Sayed: 15.)
MI-Sen (D): Impact Research for Stevens:
Stevens: 28, El-Sayed: 26, McMorrow: 25.
McMorrow’s poll was conducted March 19-22, while the internal for Stevens was conducted Feb. 10-16.
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