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Morning Digest: Democrats get their long sought recruit for Alaska Senate race
Mary Peltola gives Democrats a boost in uphill drive to flip the upper chamber
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Leading Off
AK-Sen
Former Rep. Mary Peltola announced Monday that she would challenge Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, a decision that gives Democrats a long-coveted recruit and expands their still-challenging path to flip the chamber.
Senate Republicans outnumber the Democratic caucus 53-47, and the minority party needs to net four seats to retake the majority they lost following the 2024 election. (Vice President JD Vance would be able to break any ties for the GOP.)
Because only one Republican, Susan Collins of Maine, is up for reelection this year in a state that Kamala Harris carried, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and his allies have spent the cycle convincing Democrats who have won previous races on conservative turf to run in other states.
Peltola, who is the rare Alaska Democrat who has won statewide in the entire 21st century, is just this sort of candidate.
She generated national attention in the summer of 2022 when she defeated none other than Sarah Palin in a huge upset in the special election for the Last Frontier’s only U.S. House seat. Peltola, who represented the most conservative Democratic-held House seat in the nation, went on to win their rematch a few months later even as Republicans were narrowly taking control of the chamber.
And while Peltola lost reelection to Republican Nick Begich 51-49 after an expensive 2024 battle, that slender defeat came as Donald Trump decisively carried Alaska 55-41 against Kamala Harris.
Her huge overperformance left observers closely watching for clues about what she would do next. Peltola even joked about how in-demand she was in December of 2024 when she said, “In 2026 I intend to run for governor, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House. All at the same time.”
Such a Peltola-Peltola-Peltola ticket, though, was not possible, and observers spent 2025 wondering which of these contests she’d enter. The ex-congresswoman originally seemed far more interested in running for governor, but Schumer reportedly worked hard to change her mind.
Those efforts were rewarded on Monday when Peltola announced she would take on Sullivan, who won both of his terms in the upper chamber in the years before she became the Last Frontier’s most prominent Democrat.
Sullivan unseated Democratic Sen. Mark Begich—an uncle of the state’s new Republican congressman—in a tight 2014 race. Democrats in 2020 hoped that Al Gross, a well-funded orthopedic surgeon who identified as an independent, could give the senator a tough challenge, but Sullivan prevailed 54-41.
The incumbent has used the ensuing years to build up a large war chest to defend himself: Sullivan ended September with $4.8 million in the bank, and he likely finished the year with still more. (Updated reports are due on Jan. 31.) Democrats across the country, though, will do what they can to make sure that Peltola has the resources to win a race that could decide control of the Senate.
In addition to Alaska and Maine, national Democrats are also hoping to flip Senate seats in Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. Democrats would need to win at least four of these six races to win back the majority, but Trump’s double-digit victories in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas make this a difficult task.
The math would get even tougher if Republicans unseat Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia or replace retiring Democratic incumbents in Michigan, Minnesota, or New Hampshire. Democrats are hoping to further expand the field by running competitive candidates in GOP strongholds like Florida, Mississippi, and South Carolina, but most of the focus this year will still likely be on the aforementioned races.
One extra wildcard for both parties, however, is in Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is challenging Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. Osborn has said that he wouldn’t caucus with either party if elected, which would deprive Republicans of a seat without giving Democrats a vote.
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If control of the Senate comes down to Alaska, though, everyone may be in suspense for weeks after Nov. 3 about whether or not Peltola or Sullivan came out on top.
Under the rules established by a 2020 ballot measure, all the candidates will first compete on one ballot in the Aug. 18 primary rather than in separate party primaries. The four contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, will advance to the general election, where voters will be allowed to rank their choices.
While this will be the first time that Sullivan has run under this system, all three of Peltola’s House campaigns required election officials to conduct ranked-choice tabulations to determine the winner. Peltola only learned in 2024 that she lost reelection two weeks after Election Day, and Alaska and the nation could be in for a similar wait if her clash with Sullivan is tight.
Election Night
Special Elections
Four special legislative elections are taking place on Tuesday across three different states:
Alabama: Republican state Rep. Cynthia Almond resigned in June to accept an appointment to the Alabama Public Service Commission, and the special election to fill her 63rd District in the Tuscaloosa area is finally taking place more than half a year later.
Donald Trump, according to calculations by The Downballot, scored a 58-41 victory in 2024 in this constituency, which includes much of the University of Alabama’s campus. Data from VEST and Dave’s Redistricting App shows that Trump won here by a smaller 55-42 spread in 2020.
The Democratic nominee is Judith Taylor, who chairs the Tuscaloosa County Democratic Party. Her GOP opponent is Norman Crow, a member of the Tuscaloosa City Council.
Connecticut: Democratic state Rep. Kevin Ryan died last month after more than 30 years representing communities in the eastern part of the state. Ryan won his final term 55-45 in 2024 as Kamala Harris was carrying his 139th District, which includes part of Ledyard, Montville, and Norwich, 53-46; Joe Biden won this constituency 55-42 in 2020.
The Democratic nominee is Larry Pemberton, who serves on the Eastern Pequot Tribal Council. Republicans are fielding businessman Brandon Sabbag, who has drawn attention for his transphobic rhetoric.
Virginia: Democratic Dels. David Bulova and Candi Mundon King each resigned from the legislature to join Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger’s cabinet, and their party is well-positioned to hold their respective constituencies. Both the 11th and 23rd Districts, which are each based in Northern Virginia, favored Harris by an identical 66-31 spread in 2024.
None of these four contests will change the math much in their respective legislative chambers: Republicans dominate the Alabama state House, while Democrats hold large majorities in the lower chambers in Connecticut and Virginia.
4Q Fundraising
AL-Sen: Morgan Murphy (R): $1.06 million raised
CA-Gov: Xavier Becerra (D): $2.7 million raised (in six months)
PA-Gov: Stacy Garrity (R): $1.5 million raised (in 2025), $1 million cash on hand
CO-04: Eileen Laubacher (D): $2 million raised, $2.5 million cash on hand
TN-05: Chaz Molder (D): $411,000 raised, $977,000 cash on hand
UT-01: Ben McAdams (D): $953,000 raised
WI-07: Michael Alfonso (R): $300,000 raised
IN-SoS: Beau Bayh (D): $1.8 million raised, $1.56 million cash on hand
WI-AG: Eric Toney (R): $446,000 raised
Senate
IA-Sen
Retiring incumbent Joni Ernst on Saturday endorsed Rep. Ashley Hinson in the June 2 Republican primary for Ernst’s Senate seat. Hinson, who already enjoyed the support of Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, faces only minor intraparty opposition.
Things are more competitive on the Democratic side, where the main three candidates are military veteran Nathan Sage, state Rep. Josh Turek, and state Sen. Zach Wahls. While Senate Democratic leaders have not publicly taken sides in the contest, Politico reported last month that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has been “warning consultants” not to work with either Sage or Wahls.
WY-Sen
Rep. Harriet Hageman’s campaign for Senate on Monday publicized an endorsement from Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, who holds Wyoming’s other seat in the upper chamber. Hageman, who secured Donald Trump’s support last month, currently faces no serious opposition from either party in her campaign to succeed Sen. Cynthia Lummis, a fellow Republican who is not seeking a second term.
Governors
CA-Gov
California Attorney General Rob Bonta said Sunday night that he would seek reelection rather than run to succeed termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom, his fellow Democrat.
Two other notable Democrats, however, are still considering whether to make a late entry into the packed June 2 top-two primary.
Politico reports that San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, according to unnamed sources, “is strongly considering” running and will make his decision over the next week. Mahan, who has made a name for himself by repeatedly criticizing Newsom from the right over his approach to crime and homelessness, didn’t rule out seeking a promotion last month.
The site adds that billionaire Rick Caruso will reveal his own plans during the first week of February. Caruso has kept the state guessing for well over a year whether he’ll run for governor or seek a rematch against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, a fellow Democrat who defeated him in 2022.
FL-Gov
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announced Monday that he would run to succeed termed-out Gov. Ron DeSantis, a fellow Republican who appointed Collins to his current post in August.
Collins is trying to wrest the GOP nomination from Rep. Byron Donalds, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement and has dominated in every poll. Former state House Speaker Paul Renner and James Fishback, a businessman who has repeatedly praised white nationalist figures like Nick Fuentes, are also running in the Aug. 18 primary.
But while DeSantis this summer dubbed Collins, a Green Beret veteran and former state senator who lost a leg from injuries he incurred in Afghanistan, the “Chuck Norris of Florida politics,” the governor doesn’t seem excited about his number-two’s new undertaking.
DeSantis instead used an unrelated event earlier Monday to tell attendees that, while Collins is a “good guy,” he wasn’t sure when his lieutenant governor was “going to announce or not announce.” DeSantis continued, “My role—obviously I’m focused on the State of the State [speech] and some other things. If I get involved in the primary you’ll know it, it’ll be at a time and place of my choosing, and so we’ll see.”
And Collins may not be especially optimistic about eventually getting this endorsement. Politico writes that, according to unnamed sources, ties between DeSantis and Collins have “grown strained recently.” Florida Phoenix separately notes that Collins was the only prominent state official who didn’t attend a press conference where DeSantis unveiled his “Deportation Depot.”
Someone, though, does like Collins quite a bit. An obscure group called Florida Fighters began running ads in November praising the lieutenant governor, and Florida Politics wrote the next month that the outfit spent at least $5 million on those commercials. There is still no word on who funded Florida Fighters.
Democrats are hoping that GOP infighting will give them an opening in a longtime swing state that has zoomed hard to the right since DeSantis was first elected governor in 2018. The main candidates are Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings and former Rep. David Jolly, an ex-Republican who left his old party in response to Trump’s rise.
MI-Gov, MI-SoS
Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist announced Monday that he was dropping out of the Aug. 4 Democratic primary for governor of Michigan and would run for secretary of state instead.
Gilchrist’s switch leaves Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, whom he’s now campaigning to succeed, and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson as the only serious Democratic candidates for the state’s open governorship. Benson held a huge financial advantage over both Gilchrist and Swanson when the last reporting period ended in October.
The lieutenant governor will now compete in a busy nomination contest for secretary of state that won’t be decided through a primary. Instead, it’s set to be resolved on April 19 when the party holds what’s known as an endorsement convention.
Gilchrist joins Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum, Deputy Secretary of State Aghogho Edevbie, former state Sen. Adam Hollier, and former Michigan Lottery Commissioner Suzanna Shkreli in the Democratic race to become this swing state’s chief election officer.
NY-Gov
Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado said Monday that he’s raised enough money to qualify for public financing in his campaign to defeat Gov. Kathy Hochul in New York’s June 23 Democratic primary.
If election officials verify that Delgado has raised enough small donations from eligible state residents, he would receive $6 for each $1 raised. (Only the first $250 from each donor can be matched, and contributions over $1,050 aren’t eligible.) Candidates can unlock a maximum of $7 million in public financing for the primary and general election combined.
Hochul, who has led Delgado in all available polling, has yet to say if she’ll participate in the state’s matching funds program.
WY-Gov
Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder said Monday that she would run for governor of Wyoming, an announcement that came less than a week after she received Donald Trump’s endorsement.
Cowboy State Daily notes that Degenfelder won the 2022 primary for her current post after defeating a Trump-backed candidate, which made her the only statewide Republican candidate to pull off this feat. Trump, though, doesn’t seem to hold this against her: He instead wrote Friday that his allies have told him “how great ‘MAGA’ Megan Degenfelder is.”
House
IN-05
Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz announced Monday that she would seek a fourth term representing Indiana’s conservative 5th District in the House. Spartz’s launch came less than a month after the notoriously erratic Hoosier hedged in an interview with NOTUS about her plans.
It remains to be seen if Spartz, who initially announced in 2023 that she would not run again only to reverse course the next year, will face serious intra-party opposition in the May 5 primary. Indiana’s candidate filing deadline is on Feb. 6.
MD-05
Harry Dunn, a former Capitol Police officer who defended Congress during the Jan. 6 riot, is interested in seeking the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s open 5th District, Politico reports.
Dunn last year ran for the neighboring 3rd District after Democratic Rep. John Sarbanes decided not to seek reelection, and he raised a huge sum of money for his campaign. Dunn, though, lost the primary 36-25 against state Sen. Sarah Elfreth, who went on to win the general election that fall.
NJ-09
Attorney Tiffany Burress said Monday that she would seek the Republican nomination to oppose Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou in New Jersey’s 9th District.
Burress, who is the wife of former New York Giants wide receiver Plaxico Burress, faces Clifton City Councilwoman Rosie Pino in the June 2 primary. The party chairs of the three counties that form the 9th District were quick to endorse Burress.
Republicans became interested in targeting this longtime Democratic stronghold in North Jersey after Donald Trump carried the 9th, which is home to a large Latino electorate, 49-48 four years after Joe Biden won it by a far wider 59-40 margin.
However, this constituency returned to form during last year’s election for governor, when Democrat Mikie Sherrill scored a 59-40 win—the same as Biden—according to calculations from the New Jersey Globe.
OH-10
Republican Rep. Mike Turner announced Monday that he would seek a 13th term in Ohio’s 10th District, a Dayton-area constituency that Donald Trump would have carried 53-46 under the new lines the state’s redistricting commission approved last year.
But while Democrats were hoping that Turner, who has won each of his congressional campaigns by double digits, would finally retire, one opponent was quick to kick off a campaign against him.
Air Force veteran Kristina Knickerbocker on Tuesday morning became the first notable Democrat to enter the race to take on Turner. Knickerbocker, who is a nurse practitioner, uses her launch video to tell the audience, “Our bills go up, our bottom line goes down, all while we struggle to pay the bills and put food on the table.”
“These things aren’t an accident,” Knickerbocker continues. “They’re the choices of politicians in Washington. Politicians who pass legislation that make us poorer and sicker and call it a ‘Big Beautiful Bill.’”
While Turner has generated attention by criticizing Trump for not doing enough to back Ukraine—he told ABC last month that “you can’t be ‘America first’ and be pro-Russia”—he’s voted the White House’s way on domestic matters. Turner joined almost all of the GOP caucus this summer in supporting the administration’s spending bill despite a protest by local nurses who warned that Medicaid cuts would devastate his constituents.
TN-07
Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn will not seek a rematch against Republican Rep. Matt Van Epps, she said Monday. Behn held Van Epps to a 54-45 victory in last November’s special election in Tennessee’s 7th District, which backed Donald Trump 60-38 in 2024.
TX-34
Conservative activist Fred Hinojosa said Monday that he would drop out of the March 3 GOP primary to oppose Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. Hinojosa threw his support behind Army veteran Eric Flores, whom Donald Trump endorsed last month.
Flores still faces former Rep. Mayra Flores, whom he’s not related to, and some lesser-known opponents in the primary for Texas’ 34th District in the Rio Grande Valley. Trump would have carried this constituency 55-44 under the new GOP-drawn gerrymander, though Joe Biden would have won it 51-48 in 2020.
VA-01
Democratic activist Lisa Vedernikova said Monday that she was leaving the race to oppose Republican Rep. Rob Wittman. Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor remains the favorite in what’s still a busy June 16 primary to face Wittman in Virginia’s 1st District, a longtime GOP stronghold that Democrats will target whether or not they pass a new congressional map this year.
VA-06
Former Del. Wendy Gooditis announced Monday that she’d seek the Democratic nomination to oppose Republican Rep. Ben Cline in Virginia’s 6th District. Author Beth Macy is also campaigning for what’s currently a safely red seat that Democrats could redraw this year.
Ballot Measures
MT Ballot
Two campaigns that were promoting separate constitutional amendments to keep judicial races in Montana nonpartisan announced Thursday that they would support a single plan.
The groups have consolidated behind Constitutional Initiative 132, which needs 60,241 valid signatures by June 19 to appear on this fall’s general election ballot. Supporters of CI-131, which had similar aims but would have amended the state constitution in a different way, told the secretary of state’s office last week that they were withdrawing their plan.
Other Races
GA-LG
Former Macon-Bibb Commissioner Seth Clark announced Monday that he was seeking the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor of Georgia, a post that Republican incumbent Burt Jones is giving up in order to run for governor.
Clark joins state Sen. Josh McLaurin, who spent the last eight months as the only notable Democrat in the race, in the May 19 primary. Five current or former state legislators are seeking the GOP nomination: State law requires that candidates win a majority of the vote in order to avoid a runoff on June 16.
Obituaries
Richard Codey
Richard Codey, a New Jersey Democrat who served as acting governor for 14 months from 2004 to 2006 in the middle of his record 50 years in the state legislature, died Sunday at the age of 79. The New Jersey Globe has a detailed look at Codey’s lengthy tenure, including his unlikely governorship, in its obituary.
Poll Pile
TX-18 (D): Lake Research Partners (D) for Christian Menefee: Christian Menefee: 41, Al Green (inc): 35, Amanda Edwards: 13. Head-to-head: Menefee: 47, Green (inc): 42. The poll was in the field Dec. 15-21.
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