SUPPORT THE DOWNBALLOT IMPRESSIVE ELECTION COVERAGE!
Morning Digest: An unlikely Obamacare champion just launched an unexpected comebackAs Virginia Democrats hope to redraw their map, Tom Perriello sees an opening
Leading OffVA-05Former Rep. Tom Perriello unexpectedly announced Tuesday that he would seek the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Rep. John McGuire in Virginia’s 5th District, a conservative constituency that Democrats hope to redraw next year. “I’m running for Congress because this is an all-hands-on-deck moment,” Perriello says in his launch video. “Families can’t afford groceries because Republicans in Congress, like John McGuire, won’t stand up to Trump’s tariffs.” Perriello, who was elected in a massive upset to his only term representing a previous incarnation of this central Virginia constituency, rose to prominence in 2008 when he waged a longshot campaign to unseat Rep. Virgil Goode. Goode was first elected in 1996 as a conservative Democrat before becoming a GOP-aligned independent and later a full-fledged Republican—and he always won easily no matter how he was labeled on the ballot. Given the incumbent’s track record, few believed that Perriello, a first-time candidate who had helped prosecute war crimes in Sierra Leone, would put up a tough fight. That pessimism seemed appropriate well into the summer of 2008, when an independent poll showed Perriello trailing by more than 30 points. The Democrat, though, gradually cut into his deficit as the political climate grew worse for Republicans. Perriello also rallied progressive donors eager to oust Goode, who in 2006 had warned that the country’s current immigration laws ensured that “many more Muslims” would be elected to Congress and follow Minnesota Democrat Keith Ellison by being asked to be sworn in with the Quran. But it was still a massive surprise when Perriello ousted Goode 50.1 to 49.9—a margin of just 727 votes—especially since John McCain outpaced Barack Obama 51-48 in the 5th District. The new congressman, who said during the campaign that it was time to “explode the existing spectrum of right to left that has been paralyzing us for years,” resisted easy ideological labels during what proved to be a short tenure. Perriello, like many Democrats in conservative districts, praised the National Rifle Association and supported an amendment to the Affordable Care Act that prohibited the use of federal funds to pay for abortions. However, he stood out from many of his peers with similar backgrounds by ardently backing the Democratic leadership’s priorities, including the ACA. That outspokenness didn’t just put him at risk politically. Law enforcement determined that a gas line was intentionally cut outside his brother’s home after a conservative activist posted what he wrongly thought was the congressman’s address online. Perriello went on to lose reelection to Republican Robert Hurt 51-47 in 2010 during what proved to be a horrible election cycle for Democrats across the country. Perriello later joined the Obama administration as special envoy for the African Great Lakes region and the Democratic Republic of Congo, but he wasn’t done with electoral politics. The ex-congressman stunned just about everyone in early 2017 when he announced he would run for governor, a move that came well after Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam had seemingly locked up the Democratic nomination. But while Perriello enjoyed the backing of prominent national progressives like Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and former members of the Obama administration, Northam’s long head start and support from influential Virginia Democrats helped power him to a 56-44 win en route to a decisive victory in the general election. That loss seemed to mark the end of Perriello’s career in elected office, though not in public life. The ex-congressman later became a high-level official at Open Society Foundations, an influential progressive group funded by philanthropist George Soros, before serving as special envoy for Sudan under Joe Biden. Perriello, though, is back and once again running for a House seat that, in its current form, would be challenging for any Democrat to win. Last year, Donald Trump carried the 5th District 56-43, according to calculations by The Downballot. Data from the Virginia Public Access Project also shows that Republican Winsome Earle-Sears won this constituency 54-46 in last month’s race for governor even as Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeated her in a 58-42 rout statewide. The 5th, though, could look very different next year. The state’s Democratic-led legislature advanced a constitutional amendment in October that would allow lawmakers to draw a new congressional map. They need to pass it again when they reconvene in January, which would then put the amendment before voters in a statewide election sometime this spring. Legislative leaders have not yet publicized a new map to replace the current boundaries, under which Democrats hold six House seats to the GOP’s five, but one prominent state senator has made it clear exactly what she wants the end result to be. “I will give a follow back to every person who I see tweet 10-1 tonight,” Louise Lucas, who serves as the upper chamber’s president pro tempore, tweeted last week, just after the U.S. Supreme Court allowed Texas’ new GOP-drawn gerrymander to go into effect. And Lucas isn’t the only powerful Old Dominion Democrat who wants to whittle the GOP’s delegation down to just a single member. State House Speaker Don Scott said Friday, “10-1 is not out of the realm to be able to redraw the maps in a succinct community based way but we’re going to take a look at it.” If you appreciate our pioneering brand of election coverage, would like to unlock access to subscriber-only content and features, and also want to help support independent journalism at a time of unprecedented attack on our First Amendment freedoms, we’d be so grateful if you’d consider upgrading to a paid subscription today. With your help, we can keep covering elections like no one else—and delivering all the news you need right to your inbox every weekday. Election RecapsGA State HouseDemocrat Eric Gisler flipped a conservative district in the Georgia House on Tuesday night, defeating his Republican opponent in a 51-49 upset after losing by more than 20 points just a year ago. We sent out a special breaking news alert to The Downballot’s subscribers as soon as the race was called on Tuesday. You can find our complete coverage here. Albuquerque, NM MayorDemocratic Mayor Tim Keller fended off former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White 58-42 in Tuesday’s officially nonpartisan election to lead Albuquerque. White, a longtime Republican politician, argued that voters in this Democratic-leaning city needed to switch course after eight years of Keller. The mayor, though, secured a historic third term after defending his record and warning that White would engage in “Trump-like roundups and chaos and violence” against Albuquerque’s homeless population. Miami, FL MayorFormer Miami-Dade County Commissioner Eileen Higgins will become Miami’s first Democratic mayor in the 21st century following her victory over Republican Emilio Gonzalez in Tuesday’s officially nonpartisan runoff. Higgins’ 59-41 margin rolled South Florida politics back to 2020, when Joe Biden put up a 59-40 win in the city—a time before the Democratic collapse that saw Kamala Harris prevail here just 50-49. Higgins, who will be the first woman to lead Miami, will succeed Republican Francis Suarez, who is termed out. Her strong showing last month in the first round of voting made her the favorite heading into Tuesday, but Republicans hoped they could turn their fortunes around by injecting national partisan politics into a race where party labels had seldom been a major issue. Donald Trump, who narrowly failed to carry Miami last year, endorsed Gonzalez, while the GOP candidate tried to link Higgins to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani. But while Republicans hoped that branding Higgins as a “democratic socialist” would propel Gonzalez to victory in a city with a large Cuban American voting bloc, that’s not what happened. Higgins, who enjoyed a huge spending advantage on TV, instead successfully argued she’d bring much-needed change in a city that had experienced several high-profile local scandals. Redistricting RoundupMO RedistrictingPeople Not Politicians, the organization leading the effort to block Missouri’s new Republican-drawn congressional gerrymander, announced on Tuesday that it had submitted more than 300,000 signatures to qualify a veto referendum for the ballot—more than twice the required total. If the petitions pass muster, the new House map, which aims to unseat Democratic Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver, would be put on hold until a vote can be held some time next year. If voters reject it, it would be permanently repealed. And as the Missouri Independent notes, voters in the Show Me State have often been eager to shoot down legislation passed by lawmakers. Veto referendums have appeared on the ballot 27 times since their adoption in 1908, and they’ve succeeded on 25 occasions. That includes a 1922 measure to undo a previous congressional map, which voters rejected in a 62-38 landslide, according to Ballotpedia. More recently, a 2018 referendum rolled back a “right-to-work” law the legislature had passed, with the repeal prevailing at the ballot box by a 67-33 margin. First, though, local election officials must review the signatures filed by People Not Politicians, a process that will be supervised by Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins. Hoskins has repeatedly used the powers of his office to try to thwart the campaign and is embroiled in multiple lawsuits. One suit concerns roughly 90,000 signatures that organizers collected after the legislature passed its new map, known as HB1, but before Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe signed it into law. Hoskins has refused to accept those signatures, but the issue could be moot given the large number People Not Politicians submitted. (Administrators say the disputed batch will be segregated during their review.) In total, supporters need between 106,384 and 115,720 signatures to stand up. Under Missouri law, proponents must collect signatures equivalent to 5% of the vote in the most recent election for governor in at least six of the state’s eight congressional districts. The total needed therefore depends on which districts activists target. One other lawsuit also saw a favorable ruling for People Not Politicians earlier this week. On Monday, a federal district court rejected a suit brought by Hoskins and Republican Attorney General Catherine Hanaway seeking to block the referendum on the grounds that it violates both the state and federal constitutions. In an 11-page ruling, U.S. District Judge Zachary Bluestone, an appointee of Donald Trump, said that the matter was “not ripe for adjudication.” Bluestone noted that Hoskins himself has the power to declare that the referendum does not comply with the Missouri Constitution, which would make much of the GOP’s case moot. Should Hoskins make such a determination, though, further legal battles are certain. In a statement, People Not Politicians said that if Hoskins “refuses to certify the referendum or attempts to put HB1 into effect prematurely,” the group is “prepared to take immediate action in state court.” GovernorsGA-GovSecretary of State Brad Raffensperger filed a federal lawsuit on Monday challenging a Georgia law that gives some candidates but not others the ability to raise unlimited funds. The law in question allows a handful of politicians, including the governor and lieutenant governor, to create “leadership committees” that face no limits on fundraising or spending. One of Raffensperger’s top rivals in next year’s GOP primary for Georgia’s open governorship, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, has access to such a committee by virtue of his current position. In his suit, Raffensperger is asking a federal court to allow all candidates to benefit from these lax rules. A third Republican hopeful, Chris Carr, challenged the same law in federal court earlier this year, but his case was rejected in August after a judge concluded he should have sued the state rather than Jones. Carr has neither appealed nor filed a new suit naming different defendants. NY-GovNassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman announced Tuesday that he would seek the Republican nomination to face Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, a move that comes just a month after Rep. Elise Stefanik launched her own highly anticipated campaign.
Blakeman is coming off his own dominant reelection victory just a month ago, but he nonetheless faces long odds. Not only did Stefanik post a massive 74-5 lead over Blakeman in a poll conducted last month by the British firm J.L. Partners, but she and her allies are also hoping they can end their new opponent’s campaign well before the June 23 primary. State party chair Ed Cox claimed Tuesday that Stefanik already has enough support from enough county GOP chairs to secure over 75% of the weighted vote at next year’s state party convention. That would be enough to deny Blakeman the requisite 25% he needs to secure a spot on the primary ballot. If Cox’s math is right, Blakeman could still advance to the primary by collecting 15,000 signatures, but such a task would be both expensive and time-consuming. While Cox praised the newcomer in a statement as “well liked and respected within our party,” he predicted that Stefanik, whom he’s endorsed, “will be our candidate and there will be no primary.” The congresswoman’s campaign was far less diplomatic. Stefanik’s team responded to the news of Blakeman’s impending launch on Monday by denouncing him for “putting his raging ego first and New Yorkers last as he blows up the best opportunity in a generation to Save New York.” One ex-New Yorker, though, sees things differently. Donald Trump told reporters that same day that Blakeman and Stefanik are “both great people,” and he did not indicate a preference as to which he thinks should be the GOP’s nominee. Blakeman also believes that Republicans would be making a mistake by consolidating around Stefanik, a MAGA acolyte who represents a conservative seat in upstate New York. In November, Blakeman comfortably won a second term in November as leader of politically competitive Nassau County—very different turf from Stefanik’s. Just a few years ago, though, he was anything but an electoral juggernaut. Blakeman, a Hempstead councilman who’d suffered several high-profile defeats during his long career (and whose ex-wife is married to Beatles legend Paul McCartney), appeared to be the underdog in 2021 when he decided to challenge Democratic incumbent Laura Curran as executive of this populous Long Island county. Blakeman, though, timed his effort perfectly. While the county had just decisively voted for Joe Biden, the Republican recognized that he could gain traction by ardently opposing Hochul’s COVID mask mandates and a bail reform law the state legislature had approved in 2019. Blakeman upset Curran 50.4 to 49.6 on a night that marked the start of Nassau’s still-ongoing shift to the right. The new executive went about transforming his once-blue county, in the words of the New York Times’ Nicholas Fandos, “into a kind of laboratory for Trumpism.” This experiment included the formation of a 75-person armed group of “special deputies” answerable directly to Blakeman, as well as a ban on transgender athletes from competing in women’s sports at county-owned facilities. Democrats had hoped for a backlash at the ballot box, but the opposite happened. In 2024, Trump instead became the first GOP presidential candidate to carry Nassau since George H.W. Bush in 1988, while last month, Blakeman himself won reelection by a wide 56-44 margin. HouseGA-14Republican state Sen. Colton Moore, a far-right lawmaker who has antagonized numerous members of his own party, announced Monday that he would run to replace outgoing Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, though, writes that Moore did not specify whether he’ll run in the upcoming special election to succeed Greene, or if he’ll campaign for a full two-year term—or both. The legislator did not respond to the paper’s inquiry. Moore, who previously flirted with running for the U.S. Senate earlier this year, has been anything but shy when it comes to attacking his party’s leadership. The state senator, as The Downballot detailed in June, was booted from the Senate GOP caucus in 2023 by fellow Republicans, and he was even arrested in January when he attempted to defy an order banning him from the floor of the state House. NV-03Jeff Gunter, a wealthy dermatologist who had a chaotic tenure as ambassador to Iceland during Donald Trump’s first term, announced Tuesday that he was joining the Republican primary to take on Democratic Rep. Susie Lee. Gunter’s new effort comes a year after he spent over $2 million of his own money in an attempt to secure the GOP nomination to take on Sen. Jacky Rosen. His critics, though, had little appetite for a former diplomat who, according to a report from the Office of the Inspector General, was responsible for a “threatening and intimidating environment.” Allies of Army veteran Sam Brown, the favored candidate of the party establishment, also aired ads attacking Gunter that featured clips of late-night infomercials showing him hawking a purported wrinkle-removing “serum” under the auspices of an outfit he created called the “Youthology Research Institute.” Gunter went on to lose the primary in a 61-15 landslide to Brown, who later lost a tight race to Rosen even as Trump was winning Nevada. Trump also carried the 3rd District in the southern Las Vegas area by a narrow 49.5 to 48.8 spread, but Lee still won a close race for a fourth term. Gunter joins a June GOP field that includes Marty O’Donnell, a wealthy video game composer who took a weak fourth place in last year’s primary to face Lee. Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin, though, says that national GOP leaders have a favorable view of O’Donnell’s second effort. Several other Republicans are also running, including Tera Anderson, a real estate agent who unsuccessfully ran for mayor of Las Vegas last year; Clark County school board member Lydia Dominguez; and neurosurgeon Aury Nagy, who is also self-funding most of his campaign. However, a different well-heeled candidate recently decided to bail on the race, albeit quietly. The Nevada Independent reports that billionaire Joshua Walters dropped out last month to focus on his business affairs. NY-10Outgoing New York City Comptroller Brad Lander announced Wednesday morning that he’ll challenge Rep. Dan Goldman in the Democratic primary for the 10th Congressional District. Lander, whose plans were first reported by Politico the previous day, entered the race with an endorsement from Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, whom Lander cross-endorsed in this summer’s ranked-choice primary. Also in Lander’s corner are Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont; Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts; New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams; and the Working Families Party, a progressive third party that has long been influential in New York politics. Lander got some other welcome news on Tuesday when former Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou, who lost a tight 2022 primary against Goldman, said she would not seek a rematch next year. Niou warned that “the division of having multiple candidates on the left only helps the opponents of change,” though she did not mention Lander in her statement. However, Lander may still not be Goldman’s only serious intraparty opponent. New York City Councilmember Alexa Aviles, who is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, has also talked about running. Unlike municipal primaries, which use ranked-choice voting in New York City, federal races require just a simple plurality. A busy field of rivals would therefore likely make it easier for Goldman to win renomination. Victory in the primary is tantamount to election in this safely blue constituency, which is based in Lower Manhattan and northwestern Brooklyn. Goldman, who rose to prominence in 2019 by serving as the lead Democratic counsel for Trump’s first impeachment, is an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune, and he heavily self-funded his first campaign in 2022. Goldman’s personal wealth, as well as his vocal support for Israel, has brought him into conflict with fellow Democrats who want a new voice. Goldman, however, has defended his progressive bona fides, including by introducing legislation this month that he says would “raise taxes on me personally.” Goldman last month also publicly condemned violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. NY-15Assemblywoman Amanda Septimo is preparing to challenge Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres for renomination, Jewish Insider reported Monday. Torres already faces primary opposition from former Assemblymember Michael Blake and Dalourny Nemorin, a public defender and local community board member, in New York’s safely blue 15th District. TX-33Equality PAC has reserved $1.2 million in ad time to help Rep. Julie Johnson against former Rep. Colin Allred in the March Democratic primary, the Washington Post reports. The organization previously blasted Allred for dropping out of the U.S. Senate race to oppose Johnson, who is the only gay member of Texas’ House delegation. VA-02Navy Reserve veteran James Osyf said Tuesday that he was ending his campaign to face Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia’s 2nd District. Osyf’s departure comes one month after former Rep. Elaine Luria, who lost to Kiggans in 2022, announced she would seek a rematch. Luria still faces intraparty opposition from physician Nila Devanath and former state cabinet member Matt Strickler in the June primary for what’s currently a swing seat based in Virginia Beach. Poll Pile
|
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.