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Morning Digest: Prominent Wisconsin Democrat seeks a comeback three years after a tight loss
But this time, a much more intense primary looms
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Leading Off
WI-Gov
Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes announced Tuesday that he would enter the packed Democratic primary for Wisconsin’s open governorship, a decision that comes three years after he lost a tight Senate race against Republican incumbent Ron Johnson.
“Under Trump, the name of the game has been distraction and chaos to avoid accountability,” Barnes, who is hoping to succeed retiring Democrat Tony Evers, says in his kickoff video.
The former lieutenant governor continues by calling on voters “to reject the Washington way,” declaring, “It isn’t about left or right, it isn’t about who can yell the loudest. It’s about whether people can afford to live in the state they call home.”
Barnes, who is a former state legislator, became Evers’ running mate in 2018 after decisively winning the nomination for lieutenant governor on the same evening that Evers won his separate primary contest. The two ran as a ticket in the general election, and their close victory over the Republican team of Gov. Scott Walker and Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch made Barnes the first Black person elected statewide in decades.
The lieutenant governor set his sights higher in 2022 when he challenged Johnson, a conservative hardliner who had frustrated Democrats by winning two terms representing this perennial swing state in the Senate.
Barnes all but secured the nomination weeks before the August primary after all three of his major intraparty opponents dropped out and endorsed him, and polls initially showed him leading the incumbent.
Johnson’s backers, though, hit back with an expensive ad campaign that Barnes’ allies said “used race and fear as their main election tactics.” They drew attention to a spot from a conservative super PAC that showed footage of a group of people scattering in panic during a shooting as the commercial drew a red circle around one of the gunmen next to on-screen text reading “Mandela Barnes.”
Barnes responded with ads featuring law enforcement vouching for him, but it wasn’t enough: Johnson ultimately prevailed 50-49 even as Evers and his new running mate, Sara Rodriguez, won 51-48.
Barnes soon pushed back on criticism that he’d lost because he’d failed to defend himself, instead insisting that he’d fallen short because his side was badly outspent. He told Politico in early 2023, “They could have said ‘Mandela doesn’t like the Green Bay Packers’ or something. If they put $26 million-plus behind that message—that’s what makes the difference.”
Not everyone is convinced. The Milwaukee Courier, which has long been one of Wisconsin’s most prominent Black-owned papers, published an op-ed in October arguing that Barnes would jeopardize his party’s hold on the governor’s office if he ran again.
“Let’s be clear: this is not personal,” the piece said. “Mandela’s story is one of promise. He’s bright. He’s passionate. But this moment is not about promise—it’s about performance.”
Others say they’re open to supporting Barnes again, but that he needs to convince them that he’s learned from his 2022 defeat. Collective PAC head Quentin James, whose organization supports Black candidates, told the New York Times in October, “These questions, while they may seem tough, I think they are fair. They need to be asked and he needs to be comfortable in answering them.”
Barnes is one of several notable Democrats who are competing in the Aug. 11 primary.
The field includes Rodriguez, Mandela’s successor as lieutenant governor; Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley; state Rep. Francesca Hong; former state cabinet member Missy Hughes; and state Sen. Kelda Roys.
The GOP lineup is considerably smaller, with Rep. Tom Tiffany going up against Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann.
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Election Recaps
TN-07
Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn 54-45 in Tuesday’s special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, a victory that represents a 13-point underperformance for the GOP compared to Donald Trump’s 60-38 showing here last year.
Van Epps’ win came after national GOP groups launched an expensive rescue campaign during the final weeks of the contest, while Democrats also poured in millions in the hopes of scoring an unlikely pickup.
AdImpact reports that Republicans outspent Democrats $3.5 million to $2.5 million on advertising to hold a constituency that, under any ordinary circumstances, would never have been up for grabs in the first place. Thanks in key part to Trump’s unpopularity, though, the race became surprisingly competitive.
Republicans acknowledged that a victory alone would not alter the reality that the political environment has moved sharply against the GOP this year, and there may be worse to come.
“If our victory margin is single digits, the conference may come unhinged,” one unnamed House Republican told Politico just before Tuesday’s election.
Jersey City, NJ Mayor
Jersey City Councilmember James Solomon decisively beat former Gov. Jim McGreevey, a fellow Democrat, 68-32 in the officially nonpartisan race for mayor.
McGreevey hoped to revive his once-promising political career over two decades after he resigned from office in spectacular fashion, but Solomon successfully framed the race as “a choice between the future and the past of New Jersey at a very core basis.”
Redistricting Roundup
FL Redistricting
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday that he plans to call a special session sometime “next Spring” to pass a new congressional gerrymander, telling the conservative site The Floridian, “Yeah, so we’re going to redistrict.”
Politico’s Gary Fineout writes, however, that the state’s GOP leadership remains “split on how far to go and when to start.”
A Florida House committee created to handle redistricting last month scheduled its first meeting for Thursday, though Speaker Daniel Perez’s team says that it currently doesn’t have a specific map to discuss. Fineout’s sources added that the state House leadership remains “unconcerned about the governor’s statements.”
State Senate President Ben Albritton, meanwhile, still has yet to show much public enthusiasm about a redraw. A spokesperson told Fineout, “The governor reiterated to the President what he has stated publicly—that the timeline for addressing redistricting should be next spring. We have always assumed that ‘spring’ means after the regular session, which is this winter.”
Senate
AL-Sen
ESPN host Paul Finebaum said Tuesday that he would not enter the race to replace Sen. Tommy Tuberville, a fellow Republican. Finebaum, in a statement to AL.com, added he would instead “devote my full attention to something everyone in Alabama can agree upon - our love of college football.”
MA-Sen
Rep. Ayanna Pressley will remain in the House rather than run for the Senate next year, she announced Tuesday. Pressley, who is one of the most prominent progressives in Congress, did not take sides in the Sept. 1 Democratic primary between Sen. Ed Markey and fellow Rep. Seth Moulton.
SD-Sen
Republican Sen. Mike Rounds tells the conservative Washington Examiner he’ll announce “[a]fter the first of the year” if he’ll seek a third term, though he isn’t leaving much doubt that he plans to run again.
“I mean, we’re working, we’re raising resources,” said Rounds, whom Donald Trump endorsed in July. “We’re putting everything together.”
Rounds, 71, faces no serious primary opposition in this dark red state.
VA-Sen
Democratic Sen. Mark Warner confirmed Tuesday that he would seek a fourth and final term, an announcement that came close to a year after the Richmond Times-Dispatch first reported he was planning to run again. Warner, 70, told HuffPost that he will not run again in 2032 when his seat is next on the ballot, saying, “At some point, you want to make sure you transfer the responsibility.”
Warner, who previously served as governor of Virginia in the early 2000s, looked like the favorite to win another statewide election even before Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger led the Democratic ticket to an overwhelming victory in last month’s elections. Warner’s most notable GOP opponent is state Sen. Bryce Reeves, who announced his campaign in late September.
House
MI-04
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has endorsed state Sen. Sean McCann ahead of the Aug. 4 Democratic primary to take on Rep. Bill Huizenga, an eight-term Republican who still hasn’t announced if he’ll run again. McCann’s main intraparty opponent is attorney Jessica Swartz, who unsuccessfully challenged Huizenga last year.
NJ-11
Candidate filing closed Monday for the special election to succeed New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill in the 11th Congressional District, and 13 Democrats are set to appear on the Feb. 5 primary ballot:
Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett
Venture capitalist Zach Beecher
Attorney J-L Cauvin
Former congressional aide Marc Chaaban
Former Obama administration official Cammie Croft
Maplewood Township Committeeman Dean Dafis
Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill
Morris Township Deputy Mayor Jeff Grayzel
Former Rep. Tom Malinowski
Former state Working Families leader Analilia Mejia
Chatham Borough Councilman Justin Strickland
Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way
Activist Anna Lee Williams
Voters have until Friday to challenge whether any candidate has the requisite 500 signatures needed to appear on the ballot, and the New Jersey Globe says any such challenges must be settled by Dec. 10.
Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will be favored to defeat Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway, who is the only Republican who filed to run here, in the April 16 general election for this reliably blue constituency based in the western New York City suburbs and exurbs.
Malinowski is out with an internal poll arguing that he’s the frontrunner to capture his party’s nod. GQR shows Malinowski, who used to represent the neighboring 7th District, with a 28-12 advantage over Gill. Mejia and Way secure 5% apiece, while Bartlett, Grayzel, and Beecher each take 2% or less. A 31% plurality say they are undecided, while the remaining 14% opt for an unnamed “other” candidate.
The Globe notes that this survey was completed Nov. 23, before the field fully took shape, and that it did not mention the other six candidates who ultimately filed.
NJ-12
State Sen. Andrew Zwicker tells the New Jersey Globe he’s considering running to replace Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, a fellow Democrat who is not seeking a seventh term in the safely blue 12th District. Zwicker lost to Watson Coleman in a 2014 primary that took place a year before he was elected to the legislature.
NY-10
New York City Councilmember Alexa Aviles confirmed her interest in opposing Democratic Rep. Dan Goldman for renomination in an opinion piece in City & State. Aviles, who is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, highlighted her opposition to the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC in her piece calling for “change at the city, state, and federal levels.”
Outgoing New York City Comptroller Brad Lander is also talking about challenging Goldman in the June 23 primary for New York’s 10th District, and he’s said that he intends to decide by the end of this year.
TX-19
Lubbock County Commissioner Jason Corley announced Monday that he would run to succeed retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington, a fellow Republican, in Texas’ dark red 19th District.
Corley ran in 2016 the last time this seat was open, but he earned less than 3% in the packed primary. Corley, however, went on to win his current office two years later after successfully challenging an incumbent commissioner for renomination.
Corley joins conservative activist Abraham Enriquez and lobbyist Tom Sell in the March 3 primary for Congress. Candidate filing is set to close in Texas on Dec. 8.
TX-22
Former state Rep. Jacey Jetton said Monday that he would run to succeed retiring Rep. Troy Nehls, a Republican who unexpectedly announced two days before that he was retiring and endorsing his identical twin brother, former Fort Bend County Constable Trever Nehls.
Jetton’s 2020 election made him the first Korean American member of the legislature, but he didn’t get to enjoy a long tenure there. Jetton lost renomination in 2024 to an opponent backed by Attorney General Ken Paxton, who targeted Jetton and several other representatives who voted to impeach him the previous year.
TX-28
Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina on Tuesday finally announced his long-anticipated campaign to seek the Republican nomination to oppose Rep. Henry Cuellar, who is one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress, in Texas’ 28th District.
Tijerina was elected as a Democrat in 2014 to lead Webb County, a longtime Democratic bastion that’s home to Laredo, in a race that didn’t even feature a Republican on the ballot. (Tijerina’s post is executive rather than judicial.) He then easily beat an actual Republican opponent four years later and was unopposed when he sought a third term in 2022.
Heavily Latino Webb County, though, has swung dramatically to the right in recent years. After supporting Hillary Clinton by more than 50 points in 2016, it backed Donald Trump 51-48 last year, making him the first Republican presidential candidate to carry it since 1912.
Tijerina took to Fox & Friends the next month to tell its national audience that he was switching parties and joining the GOP, and Politico reported in early 2025 that he’d met with GOP leaders in D.C. The Texas Tribune writes that he’s remained a sought-after recruit for national Republicans looking to finally defeat Cuellar.
Cuellar, who was first elected in 2004, has survived the dramatic political shift in his district, and he even prevailed last year while under indictment for corruption. Cuellar’s trial, which has been delayed multiple times, is now set for April, which is over a month after Texas is scheduled to hold its party primaries.
Republicans are determined to flip the 28th, whether or not the U.S. Supreme Court allows their new gerrymander to be used in next year’s elections. Trump carried the current version of this constituency 53-46, while he would have won by a larger 55-44 spread under the lines the Republican-controlled legislature approved this summer.
Joe Biden, though, would have carried both incarnations of the 28th, and Democrats hope that the GOP’s poor showing with Latinos in last month’s elections will preview a big swing back to the left in the Rio Grande Valley.
TX-32, OK-04
Wealthy businessman Paul Bondar has decided to seek the Republican nomination in Texas’ revamped 32nd District after losing a U.S. House race last year in Oklahoma, reports Brad Johnson of the conservative The Texan news site.
Bondar spent over $5 million of his fortune in last year’s primary against veteran Rep. Tom Cole, but he lost 65-26 after Cole and his allies reminded voters that the challenger had only recently moved to Oklahoma from Texas. But while Bondar used his election night party to announce he’d run against Cole again, Johnson writes that he’s since returned to the Lone Star State.
VA-01
Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger has endorsed Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor in the busy June 16 Democratic primary to oppose GOP Rep. Rob Wittman.
Taylor, who already had the support of Sen. Tim Kaine and three of the state’s six Democratic U.S. House members, also ended September with considerably more cash on hand than any of her intraparty rivals.
Poll Pile
MI-Sen: Mitchell Research and Communications (R) for MIRS News: Mike Rogers (R): 42, Haley Stevens (D): 40; Rogers (R): 41, Abdul El-Sayed (D): 38; Rogers (R): 44, Mallory McMorrow (D): 38.
MI-Gov: Mitchell (R) for MIRS News: John James (R): 37, Jocelyn Benson (D): 31, Mike Duggan (I): 18; Benson (D): 33, Mike Cox (R): 32, Duggan (I): 19; Benson (D): 32, Aric Nesbitt (R): 27, Duggan (I): 22.
SC-Gov (R): Wick (R): Alan Wilson: 22, Pamela Evette: 16, Ralph Norman: 12, Nancy Mace: 11, Josh Kimbrell: 2. The pollster did not identify a client.
Washington, D.C. Delegate (D): Lake Research Partners (D) for Robert White: Robert White: 29, Eleanor Holmes Norton (inc): 16, Brooke Pinto: 14, other candidates 2% or less. The memo did not include a ranked-choice simulation.
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