Planning for wildfire risk a puzzle for homeowners, Mass. officials

 

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Planning for wildfire risk a puzzle for homeowners, Mass. officials    October 10, 2025 By Jennifer SMith

Considering coastal and inland flood projections, and with the Bay State still a relatively low fire risk compared to western states grappling with waves of destructive blazes, the future in Massachusetts looks more dangerously wet than dry. But housing experts warn that a heating planet and persistent drought conditions call for a long-view approach to planning where and how new housing gets built across the country.

Faced with a housing crunch, they say, people will move where they can based on the information they have – even if that area might be more susceptible to climate risk in the future.

Migration patterns show many Americans making short-term affordability decisions that ignore long-term climate risks, said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. "People are moving into places with higher fire risk, and out of places with higher flood risk," she said. When cost drives housing decisions, people can be "myopic," prioritizing immediate affordability over future burdens.

“It’s really difficult for people to take [climate risk] fully into account because we have this tendency to consider information that is known and ignore information that is unknown,” Fairweather said. Most people “don’t have a good way to translate fire risk into cost,” she said. The amount of risk can “be kind of random,” because “even climate risk scores aren’t going to tell you if your house will be flooded or burn down, or if the houses around you are going to burn down.”

Massachusetts experienced that randomness last year, when an unusually dry and flammable fall saw 1,300 wildfires burn across the state. This August was the 20th driest since 1895, though paling in comparison to the record-breaking warm summer of 2024, when more acres burned in October and November wildfires across Massachusetts than in the past two years combined.

Climate research shows that while Massachusetts is projected to receive more annual precipitation overall, summers will experience more variable and severe dry spells due to rising temperatures and less frequent rainfall. Against this backdrop, the state is juggling a goal of 220,000 new housing units to beat the crunch with the need to plan for a world with more extreme weather, be it floods or fire.

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More Context 2024 fire season in Massachusetts burns more acres in 2 months than previous 2 years (November 2024)  Drought management not included in Healey’s $3 billion environmental bond bill (July 2025)  New FEMA flood maps prompt questions, concerns across Massachusetts (October 2025)

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