POLITICO Nightly: What will Trump’s immigration policy really look like?

By Calder McHugh Presented by  Donald Trump speaks about immigration and border security in Montezuma Pass, Arizona, on Aug. 22. | Olivier Touron/AFP via Getty Images FIRST THINGS FIRST — President-elect Donald Trump is planning to make good on his campaign trail promise that immigration would be a day one priority in his second administration. Today, he appeared to confirm on social media that he would declare a national emergency to embark on a mass deportation campaign. But reshaping immigration policy — and sending hundreds of thousands of people out of the country at minimum — won’t be as simple as putting a pen to paper and ordering it to be done. Pro-immigration groups around the country are ready to stand up legal defenses. And Trump will have to contend with a judiciary that has been skeptical of his immigration actions in the past — most notably when he attempted to push through a travel ban targeting Muslim-majority countries (though the Supreme Court, in particular, looks considerably different than it did in 2017). It makes for a looming showdown as soon as Trump takes office. Republicans (and many Democrats as well) largely agree that immigration reform is necessary. But the question is how far to go. Some in Trump’s inner circle are pushing for large scale bans or scaling down legal immigration, in addition to mass deportations. Yet there are also Trump loyalists who believe there should be limits to how restrictive Trump’s policies will be, given that America is in desperate need of highly skilled workers from other places around the world. Nightly turned to POLITICO reporter Betsy Woodruff Swan, who recently has explored these topics in detail, to give us a better sense of what’s to come. This interview has been edited. What’s the biggest hurdle Trump is facing right now to his plans to overhaul immigration in the U.S.? Trump will quickly bump into a few logistical issues: the government’s capacity to detain immigrants and foreign countries’ resistance to repatriating people (especially those convicted of violent crimes). What would the kind of wholesale changes that Trump wants to make actually look like on the ground? To state the obvious, I’d expect significantly more arrests by ICE, probably more worksite enforcement (including targeting employers who hire undocumented workers), expanded detention capacity, and heightened pressure on local law enforcement agencies to cooperate on immigration enforcement. The immigration courts, which are part of the executive branch and housed in the Justice Department, will also face significant scrutiny from Trump’s White House immigration-focused personnel. Are there different factions within the incoming Trump administration who have different ideas about immigration priorities? The biggest split will likely involve visas for high tech workers. People with backgrounds on Wall Street and Silicon Valley have long argued that America’s high-tech workforce isn’t big enough to support demand, and that we need foreign workers to fill jobs. But the more restrictionist-minded advisers say that’s factually incorrect and that giving visas to tech workers drives down the wages. That fight is inevitable and it will pit two very powerful factions against each other — hardline anti-immigration advocates versus burgeoning tech interests among Trump loyalists. How will Trump’s plans affect U.S. relations in Latin America? The US will need to pressure Mexico to restart the “Remain in Mexico” policy that kept people seeking asylum in the U.S. from immediately being granted entry. We don’t know what Mexico will seek in return. The U.S. may also need to negotiate with Latin American countries to repatriate deportees. That can cause friction. Do his campaign promises hold much real chance of success? From your reporting, what looks like a flight of fancy right now, and what looks like it really will happen on Day 1? There are a series of executive actions Trump can take on Day One that will have real impact, including throwing out a memo [Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro] Mayorkas issued that made ICE agents be more deliberative about who to deport. He can also quickly end temporary protection from deportation available to people from multiple countries –– including Haiti and Venezuela — who currently have Temporary Protected Status as immigrants in the U.S. due to armed conflicts in their home countries. And he can immediately stop using the CBP One app, which was designed to make it quicker and easier for people to seek asylum (though it’s drawn significant criticism across the board). His biggest constraints will be funding-related. For that he’ll need Congress. But congressional Republicans are likely to be very accommodating. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh.   A message from AARP: America’s 48 million family caregivers spend over $7,000 a year to care for older parents, spouses and other loved ones. They need a tax credit. With a new Congress, it’s time to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit.   What'd I Miss? — Trump confirms he will deploy the military for mass deportation plan: Donald Trump confirmed today that he plans to declare a national emergency and use the military for the mass deportations of immigrants in the country illegally. Trump posted “TRUE!!!” in response to conservative activist Tom Fitton, who wrote in his own Truth Social post about the incoming administration’s preparation to use the military for deportation efforts. As the president-elect plans to begin the process of deporting immigrants in the U.S. illegally in his first 100 days, Trump’s team is working to craft executive orders that can withstand legal challenges from immigration advocates to avoid a defeat like the one his 2017 Muslim ban faced. — Eastern Seaboard scrambles to deal with drought and fire: Governors in New York and New Jersey have begun warning their residents to save water as an unusual drought grips the region. Even with some rain in the forecast this week, it likely won’t be enough to bring relief. A bleak picture is only worsening . Both states’ governors have alluded to long-term forecasts that suggest the winter ahead may be drier than normal too. It is nothing like California, where wildfires routinely destroy hundreds of thousands of acres a year. But raging fires — which prompted local evacuations this weekend and smoke wafting into New York City — have given residents and political leaders alike another taste of West Coast life in a warming climate. Last year, the region’s air was dangerously polluted by smoke from fires in Canada. — Martin O’Malley announces bid as DNC chair race kicks off: The race is on for the next chair of the Democratic National Committee, and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley is the first official entrant. O’Malley kicked off his bid today with a post on social media that said: “We must connect our Party with the most important place in America — the kitchen table of every family’s home. Jobs, Opportunity, and Economic Security for all. Getting things done. Hope. A 50 state strategy. Now.” O’Malley is resigning as head of the Social Security Administration, effective Nov. 29, to run for the role, he confirmed to POLITICO.   The lame duck session could reshape major policies before year's end. Get Inside Congress delivered daily to follow the final sprint of dealmaking on defense funding, AI regulation and disaster aid. Subscribe now.     THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION William J. McGinley speaks at an event hosted by BNA on new lobbying laws. | Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP EXCEPTION TO THE RULE — As Donald Trump selects the top lawyers in his next administration, he has mostly prioritized loyalists who have forcefully advocated for him — either on cable news or in court. His pick for White House counsel is a bit different. William McGinley, a longtime Republican election lawyer and K Street player, is not known as an outspoken Trump defender or a member of his legal inner circle. THE GAETZ REPORT — The House Ethics panel will meet Wednesday and potentially vote to release a report probing sexual misconduct allegations against former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who Donald Trump tapped to be his attorney general, according to two people familiar with the discussion. The meeting comes as Gaetz’s confirmation is in question, with some Republican senators wary of the controversial Florida Republican serving as the nation’s top law enforcement officer. THE FIGHT AGAINST RFK JR — Democratic-aligned health care advocacy groups are putting together a strategy to fight Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to be HHS secretary . During an organizing call today, the details of which have not been reported publicly, more than 200 people from several dozen of those groups, along with other advocacy organizations, discussed strategies to oppose Kennedy’s nomination. That included which Republican senators to target and the most effective way to talk to them, according to Brad Woodhouse, executive director of Protect Our Care. On the call, Woodhouse’s organization launched a new “Stop RFK War Room” effort focused on persuading not only GOP moderates like Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, but others like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who survived polio, or Sen. Tom Tillis of North Carolina, who is up for re-election in 2026. REAL SECRETARY — President-elect Donald Trump plans to nominate former lawmaker and Fox News contributor Sean Duffy, who also had a turn on MTV’s “Real World,” to be the next secretary of Transportation. In an announcement posted to Truth Social, Trump applauded Duffy’s (R-Wis.) congressional relationships and expressed faith in his ability to rebuild the country’s infrastructure, adding that he will “greatly elevate the Travel Experience for all Americans!”   A message from AARP:   AROUND THE WORLD A DEFECTOR’S DEATH — The first person to spot the body was an elderly Spanish man who mistook it for a drunk passed out at the entrance of the parking garage. Then he saw the blood darkening the dead man’s chest — and a white car flashing past him, speeding up the ramp and into the night. “He had at least six bullet wounds. He was wearing something like a jacket,” the man recalled. “You could see blood.” The dead man was carrying a fake Ukrainian passport, identifying him as Ihor Schevchenko, 33 years old, so it took a few days for news of his true identity to trickle out. At first, the rumors flitted through Russia-affiliated news outlets and posts on the messaging app Telegram. Finally, on Feb. 19, 2024, nearly a week after the body was found, Ukrainian officials confirmed it belonged to Maxim Kuzminov, a former Russian helicopter pilot who had carried out a high-profile defection the summer before, flying his vehicle across the front line and delivering it to Ukraine. Celebrated with fanfare in Kyiv, Kuzminov had been rewarded with money and promised protection, even as Russia declared him a traitor and called for his death. NO LONG-RANGE MISSILES — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is sticking to his “nein” on the delivery of German long-range missiles to Ukraine despite reports that the United States has changed course. The Biden administration’s apparent decision to allow Ukraine to use U.S. long-range missiles — known as the Army Tactical Missile System or ATACMS — to strike targets inside Russia has had “no effect” on Scholz’s refusal to provide Ukraine with German-made Taurus long-range missiles, a German government spokesperson told reporters in Berlin today. “There are certain limits for the chancellor,” the spokesperson said. “He does not want these long-range weapons to be delivered. This position will not change.”   Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more. Strengthen your strategy.     Nightly Number $100 billion The size of an emergency funding request to rebuild communities hit by hurricanes Helene and Milton that the Biden administration sent Congress today, along with a slew of other disasters nationwide. Top lawmakers plan to spend the next few weeks finalizing a bipartisan bill that fulfills at least some of that request, with a goal of final passage sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas. RADAR SWEEP WAG WORLD — In 2024, some of the most influential figures in American sports aren’t the players. They’re the women by their sides. At this year’s US Open, and every single other major tournament over the past several months, Morgan Riddle has been among the most in-demand talent with both tennis fans and sponsors. Riddle didn’t become, as The New York Times put it last year, “the most famous woman in men’s tennis” by playing. She did so because of her boyfriend, the US number-one ranked male player Taylor Fritz. She is tennis’s most famous WAG—the acronym stands for “wives and girlfriends” of professional athletes. Stephanie McNeal explores the WAG phenomenon and how it’s changing the face of American sports for Glamour magazine. Parting Image On this date in 2005: People gather inside the heavily damaged Khanaqin Grand Mosque after a suicide attacker walked into the mosque and detonated himself in the middle of a group of people in Iraq. | Mohammed Adnan/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here.   A message from AARP: America needs family caregivers. And they need a tax credit. Family caregivers struggle to balance the demands of their jobs with caring for their older parents, spouses and other loved ones, leading too many to quit or reduce their hours at work. Added to that stress, family caregivers spend over $7,000 a year on out-of-pocket expenses to provide this care. They can’t afford it. And we can’t afford to ignore them. Family caregivers cover the costs to help older loved ones with: Transportation Adult day care Home modifications Home care aides Respite care And MUCH more. That’s why AARP is calling on the new Congress to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit--so America’s family caregivers can get some financial relief.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA