POLITICO Nightly: How the Senate map explains Trump

By Calder McHugh Donald Trump smiles at a campaign event in September. | Evan Vucci/AP INTERESTING INSIGHT & COMPARISONS! MORE LIKELY TO BLAME IS DISINFORMATION & LIES ADDRESSED ELSEWHERE! TURNAROUND — As Democrats continue to shift into recrimination mode about exactly what happened last Tuesday evening, they’ve found blame in lots of places — demographic shifts, inflation, concerns about immigration and even the wide world of podcasts. But digging into the raw vote totals in the Senate and the presidential race suggests the problem may have been more about Kamala Harris — or perhaps more likely, her ties to the Biden administration — than the party itself. In presidential election years, when voter turnout swells, presidential candidates often receive more votes than Senate candidates, even Senate incumbents. Yet this year, 11 of the 14 Senate Democratic incumbents up for reelection won more votes in their states than Harris. By contrast, Donald Trump vastly outperformed Republican candidates for Senate, especially in swing states like Nevada and Michigan. Of the eight GOP incumbents up for reelection (not counting Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts, a former governor who was appointed in 2023), Trump had a higher vote total than six of them. The only senators he didn’t outpace were Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso and Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker, two veterans who are well known in their relatively small-population states. Trump’s performance last week was a far cry from his first presidential bid in 2016. Back then, Republican candidates for Senate won in spite of him — of the 22 Republican Senate incumbents up for reelection that year, Trump ran ahead of only six of them. His great fortune was that Hillary Clinton was an even larger drag on her party’s ticket — all seven Democratic incumbents up for reelection that year won more votes than her in their home states. This time around, he provided significant tailwinds, especially for the two Republican senators who had the closest reelection victories — Deb Fischer in Nebraska and Ted Cruz in Texas. Trump’s transformation from drag on the Republican ticket to boon has Democrats unnerved about the future of their party. Where 2016 may have felt like a terrible nightmare powered by the strangeness of the Electoral College, 2024 felt like a total rebuke. Trump, who went from losing the popular vote by almost 3 million votes to winning it (by how many is yet unclear), can no longer be easily dismissed as an aberration governing without a popular mandate. Ironically, though, in terms of the Senate, the outcome might be better for the Democratic Party moving forward. In 2016, zero states voted for a president of one party and a senator who came from another. This year, if Democrat Ruben Gallego’s lead holds, there are four — Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. All of that ticket splitting is due in large part to Trump’s strength relative to Harris; his popularity was in some cases not transferable to other Republicans on the ballot with him. He outran the Republican Senate candidates in those four states by huge margins, while Harris had trouble even matching the vote totals from Democratic Senate candidates. As the dust settles on the 2024 election, Trump resembled a uniquely strong Republican candidate, while Harris ran more like a weak incumbent who voters wanted to punish. That might be a good sign for the future of the Democratic Party. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh.     What'd I Miss? ***JAN 6 RIOTERS**** — DOJ says Jack Smith’s delay in Trump case isn’t a reason to let defendants off the hook: Special counsel Jack Smith’s decision to pause his prosecution of President-elect Donald Trump is no reason to do the same for members of the mob that attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6 , 2021, the Justice Department argued today. Several Jan. 6 defendants have used Smith’s call for a three-week breather — quickly endorsed by U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan — as proof that all criminal cases connected to the Jan. 6 attack deserve a similar slowdown. — Biden admin to support controversial UN cybercrime convention: The United States will support the United Nations cybercrime convention when it comes up for a vote this week, top officials said Sunday night. The decision follows months of internal deliberations at the White House and other agencies over whether to support the treaty, which digital rights groups and other officials have raised serious concerns over due to its potential misuse by countries like Russia and China. A senior administration official, speaking anonymously as a condition of briefing reporters, said Sunday night ahead of an anticipated United Nations motion on the treaty today that the U.S. “decided to remain with consensus” and support the treaty moving forward. — Republicans inch closer to formally locking up House majority: There are more than a dozen House contests — and a Senate race — still uncalled by The Associated Press, but Republicans are inching ever closer to officially retaining the House majority, as western states continue to slowly tally up their ballots. Arizona Senate: Several days of strong vote counting numbers have put Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) on the precipice of holding this Senate seat for his party, even as President-elect Donald Trump carried the state by nearly 6 percentage points. Gallego’s lead over GOP nominee Kari Lake was nearly 67,000 votes — or more than two percentage points — following a Sunday evening drop from Maricopa County. Advantage Gallego.  Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania Senate: Republicans are furious that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has withheld an orientation invite to Sen.-elect Dave McCormick (R-Pa.), despite the Associated Press calling the Keystone State race for the GOP. Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) has refused to concede the race, citing tens of thousands of outstanding ballots. McCormick currently leads Casey by more than 39,000 votes in the commonwealth. Battle for the House: There are 18 races technically uncalled by the AP, but here’s where to focus your attention to understand who will control the House. Colorado’s 8th: Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) conceded defeat on Sunday after several batches of ballots broke in favor of GOP challenger Gabe Evans, though the race has yet to be technically called. The expected loss further dents Democrats’ majority hopes. Alaska’s at-large: Incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D) trails by more than 10,000 votes with around 80 percent of the estimated total now counted. Rural ballots are expected to favor her, but the math to catch GOP challenger Nick Begich is daunting.  Arizona’s 6th: Several favorable ballot drops over the weekend put incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) again in the lead for this swingy seat in southern Arizona. Democrat Kirsten Engel trails by around 2,000 votes with about 83 percent counted.  California’s 22nd: Rep. David Valadao (R) leads by more than 10,000 votes — and more than seven percentage points — over challenger Democrat Rudy Salas with around 77 percent of the vote now in.  California’s 41st: Longtime incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) expanded his lead over Democratic challenger Will Rollins on Sunday to nearly 7,900 votes — or more than 2.8 percentage points.  California’s 13th: Democratic challenger Adam Gray has been eating into GOP Rep. John Duarte’s initial lead as more ballots are counted. An estimated 61 percent of votes are in, with Duarte currently holding 3,261 vote advantage.  California’s 45th: Several recent drops have been beneficial to Democratic challenger Derek Tran, who now trails GOP Rep. Michelle Steel by 6,128 votes. Around 80 percent of the vote is counted, so gear up for a potential photo finish.  California’s 47th: Democrats got much-needed good news in their quest to hold Rep. Katie Porter’s (D) open seat when Democrat Dave Min surged into the lead over the weekend, opening a 2,713 vote lead over GOP nominee Scott Baugh.  California’s 27th: In the yearslong Democratic quest to topple Rep. Mike Garcia (R) from his Los Angeles-based district, challenger George Whitesides took the lead over the weekend and now boasts a lead of 4,730 votes. Later batches of votes have favored Democrats. And a big call: Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) won reelection in Arizona’s 1st District, according to a late Sunday race call from the AP. It’s a major hold for Republicans. THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION IT’S MILLER TIME — President-elect Donald Trump is set to install immigration hawks for two major White House roles, key positions that don’t require Senate confirmation and will enable them to enact his sweeping immigration agenda across the federal government. Tom Homan, his pick for “border czar,” and Stephen Miller, his deputy White House chief of staff for policy, won’t formally helm any arms of government, but they are likely to carry enormous sway with cabinet secretaries and agency directors. They are expected to be viewed as the president’s direct emissaries, empowered to push for specific actions and track progress implementing Trump’s agenda. SET ON EPA — President-elect Donald Trump today announced he has picked former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) to helm the Environmental Protection Agency, the first step in what Trump’s supporters have said could be a thorough shakeup of the regulatory body. If confirmed, Zeldin would lead the Republican effort to roll back key climate change regulations enacted by the Biden administration, including rules tightening the pollution from power plants and tailpipes. His selection comes despite expectations that Trump would choose Andrew Wheeler, who served in the role during the previous Trump term. NO RESISTANCE NECESSARY — A conservative lawyer working on Donald Trump’s transition, Mark Paoletta, offered a stark warning to career Justice Department lawyers today that those who refuse to advance Trump’s agenda should resign or face the possibility of being fired. “Once the decision is made to move forward, career employees are required to implement the President’s plan,” Paoletta wrote in a post on X responding to a POLITICO story detailing widespread fear among DOJ lawyers about being asked to advance or defend policies they consider unethical or illegal. TRUMP’S ‘BORDER CZAR’ 2.0 — President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to be “border czar” is ready to execute his boss’ immigration agenda come hell or high water. Thomas Homan, who oversaw Trump’s controversial family separation policy as acting ICE director, said the enforcement will be the “same as it was during the first administration” but Americans can expect “a hell of a lot more” deportations this time.   A message from PhRMA:     AROUND THE WORLD A protestor holds up her hand that is covered with simulated oil during a demonstration in 2010 in Berkeley, California. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images BIG PROBLEM — The United Kingdom wants to use this week’s COP29 climate summit to sell itself as a global environmental leader. But it’s got a two-letter problem: BP. One of the U.K.’s largest companies, BP is a global force in fossil fuel drilling — and thick as thieves with COP29’s host Azerbaijan. BP is Azerbaijan’s biggest foreign investor. There’s even a joke popular in the region that the Azerbaijani government sees two U.K. power bases in Baku: the British Embassy and BP’s office. That three-way relationship means the U.K. oil and gas multinational’s influence — and the British government’s ties to it — will loom large over the U.K.’s participation in the key United Nations-organized climate summit in Baku this week. “The U.K. government has turned a blind eye to this toxic relationship for too long,” said Louis Wilson, head of fossil fuel investigations at the NGO Global Witness. “BP’s presence in Azerbaijan is wrecking the U.K.’s COP29 climate goals, and undermining U.K. foreign policy interests too.” CONCERNS FROM CHINA — China is worried about the upheaval Donald Trump might bring to the fight against climate change, Beijing’s top climate envoy Liu Zhenmin said today. “The international situation has really changed — we’re also concerned about the United States after the election,” he said, speaking to reporters before a side event at the COP29 U.N. climate talks in Azerbaijan. Trump has promised to yet again withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement on climate change, which almost 200 countries signed in 2015. The pact commits countries to a goal of keeping global warming ideally to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Nightly Number Over $87,000 The price of bitcoin, the highest that the world’s largest cryptocurrency has ever climbed, after rising over 28 percent in the last week alone. RADAR SWEEP MONKEYS ON THE LOOSE — Just off the coast of Beaufort, South Carolina, 4,000 wild monkeys roam freely on the state’s Morgan Island, also known colloquially as “Monkey Island.” After 43 monkeys escaped from the Alpha Genesis research laboratory in Yemassee, whether the monkeys have a right to roam or are required to return to the lab has become a legal question. Long standing legal doctrines suggest that the monkeys on the loose may not belong to the company as long as they remain free and outside of its custody — but Alpha Genesis remains on the hunt for what it considers its property. For Vox, Angela Fernandez and Justin Marceau use historical examples to explore whether the monkeys fleeing confinement actually have a legal claim to freedom. Parting Image Air Force veteran John Dubiel salutes his fellow veterans at Arlington National Cemetery on Veterans Day in Washington today. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Samantha Latson also contributed to today’s newsletter.       Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

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