Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO Nightly: The 2024 map just got a major shakeup

Friday, July 26, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: The 2024 map just got a major shakeup

People cheer Vice President Kamala Harris on her way to a campaign rally at West Allis Central High School in Wisconsin on Tuesday. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

TRAIL BLAZER — Choosing a running mate isn’t the only big decision awaiting Kamala Harris in the 100-day sprint to Election Day. Her campaign must also chart a course to 270 electoral votes across a map that bears little resemblance to 2020.

The map she inherits from Joe Biden is grim. Before the president withdrew his candidacy Sunday, he was trailing in the polls in every battleground state, including the five he flipped to win the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. His path to victory had narrowed to a white-knuckle ride through the Rust Belt, a strategy predicated on holding the party’s so-called Blue Wall.

Arizona and Georgia — and especially Nevada, another state Biden captured in 2020 — seemed too far gone.

That stands to change with Harris as the nominee. Her profile — spiritually, if not technically, a GenXer; a product of Sun Belt politics; a woman of color with experience running and winning among Latino voters; a leading party voice on abortion rights — suddenly appears to reopen the map, offering two distinct paths to victory.

There isn’t enough quality polling data yet to know for sure. Much will depend on Harris’ ability to expand on Biden’s current margins with Black and Latino voters. But there’s cause to think she could blaze a Sun Belt trail to the White House, a route that was closed to Biden.

It begins somewhat implausibly in rapidly growing North Carolina, a state that has voted almost exclusively Republican in presidential races over the past half-century. It’s a daunting record of GOP success, but it’s leavened by the fact that former President Donald Trump carried the state by just 75,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast in 2020, a considerably smaller winning margin than in 2016.

The historic nature of Harris’ candidacy is likely to resonate louder in North Carolina than most other places, given that over 20 percent of the population is Black. In 2008, the similarly groundbreaking candidacy of Barack Obama helped him narrowly win there, powered by a record turnout of Black voters. Here’s an idea of Obama’s catalytic effect on the electorate: In 2004, only 59 percent of registered Black voters turned out, compared to 66 percent of registered whites. Four years later, a record 72 percent of registered Black people voted, outpacing the rate of white people in the state for the first time . Black turnout hasn’t hit that turnout level since.

Given Trump’s current advantage in North Carolina polls, it’s still a risky play. But the prospect of an electorate reshaped by new residents and a possible surge of Black voters will be enticing. The return on investment would be considerable, since a loss in the state would blow a hole in Trump’s coalition. Due to its population gains, North Carolina now offers more Electoral College votes (16) than Wisconsin (10) and even more than traditional giant Michigan (15).

The dynamics are similar in Georgia where, four years after winning there, Biden is also underwater in the polls. If Harris could enhance Black turnout levels in the swing state with the highest percentage of Black residents, the payoff would be huge.

In Arizona and Nevada, where roughly 30 percent of residents are Latino, Harris’ chances are contingent on her ability to reverse Biden’s glaring underperformance among those voters. But it would be hard to do any worse. A post-debate New York Times/Siena College national poll featured a stunning figure buried in the cross-tabs: Among Hispanic likely voters, Biden and Trump were essentially tied. It’s a far cry from 2020, when Biden won Hispanic voters by 21 points, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters.

Harris has a history of running well among Latino voters, winning a majority of their votes in her two statewide campaigns for California attorney general and losing them narrowly in her 2016 Senate bid, which pitted her against a Latina Democrat.

The results from a new Quinnipiac University survey that was in the field in the days just before Biden’s withdrawal offer additional evidence. The poll tested both Biden and Harris in match-ups with Trump. While Biden had a 47 percent to 45 percent edge over Trump among Hispanic registered voters, Harris led Trump 52-46. The most recent Times/Siena poll , released today, reported an even wider Harris advantage among Hispanic likely voters: 60-36.

In both Arizona and Nevada, Harris might have additional tailwinds that were unavailable to Biden. Arizona could have an abortion rights initiative on the ballot; polls suggest it has majority support . If so, it could spark turnout that would bolster Harris, who has spearheaded the Democratic Party’s post-Dobbs messaging.

In Nevada, which Trump has lost twice, Harris begins with a degree of familiarity unavailable to most presidential nominees. Being a Californian isn’t an unalloyed asset in its neighboring state, but over the past six years, Harris has spent an inordinate amount of time establishing relationships and courting local voters, dating back to the run-up to her unsuccessful 2020 presidential primary bid. Since becoming vice president, Harris has made at least a dozen visits. This year alone, she’s made a half-dozen.

Of course, it’s possible that without Scranton Joe atop the ticket, the Blue Wall becomes more compromised. The same profile that elevates Harris elsewhere could very well be a liability across the industrial Midwest, in places like Green Bay, Flint and Erie.

At the moment, the path to 270 electoral votes isn’t an either/or decision. The Harris campaign can move forward on both options. Her pick for vice president will provide the first signal as to where the campaign sees the most promise — tapping Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro or Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly or North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper would provide tacit confirmation of their approach.

The campaign will have to concentrate its firepower at some point. Hard decisions will need to be made about which states to pour resources into and which states to cut loose — a standard practice in every presidential campaign. But for the moment, the mere prospect of the electoral map opening up, rather than shrinking, is a promising development for Democrats after an unrelenting run of bad news in the presidential race.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie .

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WHAT'D I MISS?

— Appeals court timeline suggests months more of delay for Jack Smith’s documents case against Trump: Special counsel Jack Smith’s bid to revive the classified documents case against Donald Trump appears unlikely to be resolved or even argued in court before Election Day . Smith is appealing U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon’s decision last week to dismiss the case, in which the former president is charged with hoarding national security secrets at Mar-a-Lago after he left office. The federal court that will hear his appeal — the Atlanta-based 11th Circuit Court of Appeals — laid out a schedule Thursday that requires Smith and Trump to file legal briefs through mid-October.

ARMING ISRAEL TO EXPAND ITS WARS!

— Israel privately pressures Biden admin to fast-track more weapons during Netanyahu visit: Israel is privately ramping up pressure on the Biden administration and lawmakers on Capitol Hill to greenlight weapons it says it needs to protect itself from an increasingly aggressive Iran and its proxies. The delegation traveling with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington this week is circulating a list among lawmakers and senior officials that lays out weapons systems it wants fast-tracked. Israeli representatives passed the list to members of Congress Wednesday following Netanyahu’s speech, according to a person familiar with the list who said Jerusalem needs the weapons to bolster its stockpiles.

— Gavin Newsom issues order to clear homeless encampments on California state land: California Gov. Gavin Newsom directed state agencies today to dismantle homeless encampments on state land after the U.S. Supreme Court cleared the way for states and cities to move more aggressively. Newsom’s order tells state agencies to identify sites where unhoused people have pitched tents and to make plans to relocate them. The Democratic governor is taking advantage of a high court ruling that overturned a ban on moving people off of public property unless there are sufficient shelter beds for them.

NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

TESTING GROUND — Kamala Harris hinted today at the economic message she may lay out as the Democratic presidential frontrunner , weaving student debt forgiveness and affordable child care into a larger picture of optimism for the country.

The vice president sought to connect education with the economy at the American Federation of Teachers convention in Houston, even as she avoided policy specifics or big divergences from the administration.

“We see a future with affordable health care, affordable child care and paid leave, not for some but for all,” Harris said to the throngs of teachers in the audience. “We see a future where every student has the support and the resources they need to thrive, and a future where no teacher has to struggle with the burden of student loan debt.”

FALLING IN LINE — Former President Barack Obama plans to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential bid , according to two people familiar with his plans. That endorsement could come as soon as this evening, according to one of the people granted anonymity to speak about an endorsement that is not yet public. Obama’s backing could help activate and sustain energy — and fundraising — for Harris’ campaign. And he’s likely to get on the campaign trail for Harris once she is officially the presumptive nominee.

AROUND THE WORLD

Fighter aircrafts from NORAD positively identified and intercepted two Russian and two Chinese military aircrafts operating in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone on Wednesday. | Courtesy of North American Aerospace Defense Command

LINKING ARMS — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed today that the Russian and Chinese bombers that came within 200 miles of the Alaskan coast this week marked the first time the two countries have jointly flown so close to U.S. territory.

The unprecedented exercise forced the U.S. and Canada to scramble F-35, F-16 and F-18 fighter planes to shadow the bombers.

The intercept marked “the first time that we’ve seen these two countries fly together like that,” Austin told reporters at the Pentagon. “I think the closest point of approach was about 200 miles off of our coast.”

The flight set off alarm bells in Washington and Ottawa that Beijing and Moscow had found a new way to work together so close to North America.

Austin said that the bombers had been tracked during most of their flight and “this was not a surprise to us.”

While it’s not uncommon for Russian jets to skirt U.S. airspace around Alaska, the joint flight shows an increasingly assertive China and its expanding military relationship with Russia. The flight came just hours before President Joe Biden was slated to deliver a speech from the Oval Office explaining why he was dropping out of the presidential race.

Moscow and Beijing have forged deeper military relations in recent years, particularly since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Last August, the two sent 11 warships close to the Aleutian Islands, leading to the deployment of four American guided missile destroyers to shadow and track the ships, which stayed in international waters.

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

$32 million

The amount of money that pro-Trump Super PAC Make America Great Again Inc. is adding to its ad buy before Labor Day to attack Vice President Kamala Harris on her record as a prosecutor in California and on immigration.

RADAR SWEEP

GETTING HOT IN HERE — Las Vegas is experiencing its hottest summer on record, with temperatures climbing above 115 degrees Fahrenheit or higher over seven days in July. Clark County, where Las Vegas is located, is getting hotter more quickly than almost anywhere else in the United States . And its population is also exploding, as the city struggles to accommodate new residents and has zoned for the construction of a lot of new housing units in the midst of the population boom. That new housing, though, will bring more concrete and thus more heat in the middle of a desert with little respite. In a place where access to an air conditioner can mean the difference between life and death — that also has a growing homelessness problem — the contradictions abound. How is Vegas dealing with the heat wave, and what will come next as it continues to both get warmer and grow? Gabrielle Canon reports for The Guardian.

PARTING IMAGE