POLITICO Nightly: ‘Double haters’ might decide the 2024 election

 

BY CATHERINE KIM Voters cast their ballots at Centreville High School in Clifton, Virginia. | Paul J. Richards/AFP via Getty Images DOUBLING DOWN — If President Joe Biden wants to squeeze out of a polling deficit, he’ll need to secure the votes of some people who don’t like him very much. The good news is, many of these voters don’t like former President Donald Trump either. They might be the most important group in the 2024 election: Call them ‘the double haters.’ Double haters — voters who are unsatisfied with both Trump and Biden — make up roughly one-fifth of the electorate. Recent polls from the Marquette Law School , NYT-Siena College and Morning Consult all reported the same number: 19 percent. That’s a huge chunk in a race that’s likely to be tight. Demographically the group resembles the general electorate, although it leans slightly younger and more Hispanic; there are also an equal number of Democrats and Republicans. These double haters have been an important group for multiple election cycles — this year, with both candidates’ favorability ratings plummeting, the number of voters who dislike both major party candidates may surpass the previous high water mark in 2016. Back then, Trump won a bigger share of the double haters than Hilary Clinton, outperforming her by about 17 percentage points amongst the group that made up 18 percent of the electorate. Biden turned the tables in 2020 and won the group by 15 percentage points ( granted, they only made up about 3 percent of the electorate then , according to exit polling), and he continues to have a 45 percent to 33 percent advantage . This year, however, a third-party candidate seems to be a far more popular option — at least for now. Most importantly, double haters are a volatile group of people, willing to change their minds up until the last minute, pollsters say. In an era of staunch party loyalty, they are outliers who are capable of switching up their allegiance with every news cycle. Such volatility can present a golden opportunity — and also a real challenge. Most double haters who say they’ll vote third party actually have little knowledge of who those third party candidates are, according to Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, and more information in the coming months could very much change their minds. Trump runs the risk of reminding voters of why many of them voted to toss him out in 2020 as more information trickles out of his trials, “Their dislike of Trump seems more durable, more intense, more nonnegotiable, whereas Biden it seems a little milder; perhaps [he has] more ability to turn it around,” Lake said. “So I think it represents an opportunity.” In this election, Biden and Trump aren’t each other’s biggest rivals with this group though — it’s the couch. “The thing I worry about a little bit is this is going to be such a terrible, nasty campaign. And it’s going to go on for so long,” said Chris Matthews, a Republican pollster. “These folks may just be like, ‘I hate them both… It would be bad with both, so I’m just not going to vote.’” Biden will need to give people a reason to head out to the polls, and this group of voters is zeroed in on the economy, according to Lake. Many double haters are concerned about the cost of living and health care in particular. To win, Biden needs to remember this isn’t 2020. Double haters have gone from 3 percent to 19 percent of the electorate, a sign of the fatigue the general public is already feeling toward this re-election matchup. He’s also far more unpopular than in 2020 — according to polls, the most unpopular president up for re-election in modern history, to be exact . And the “vote against Trump” message from 2020 isn’t always particularly persuasive to double haters, Lake said. They want to vote against Biden too. The 2016 election is probably the better parallel to this upcoming election because the share of double haters is comparable. The 18 percent of double haters leaned toward Trump in 2016 for a series of reasons: an ongoing investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails that the FBI did not conclude until two days before the election (even if she was ultimately exonerated), Clinton’s reputation as a status quo candidate and her lack of a clear economic message . They also broke for Trump so late in the game that the shift wasn’t picked up in much public polling, a cautionary reminder of the group’s volatility. But Trump isn’t the same candidate who he was in 2016 either. Now a one-term ex-president, he hasn’t been keen on reaching out to his non-believers, and has doubled down on his MAGA agenda. Polls suggest that might be the greatest blessing of all for Biden. “[Trump] himself seems to be very ready to dismiss anyone who doesn’t agree with him on the MAGA front. He’s basically telling Haley voters, ‘we don’t want you, we don’t want the Romney types in this party,’” Matthews said. “You have sort of a hard time imagining that he is going to be like, ‘Yeah, I want to figure out why people don’t like me and try and make accommodations to win them over.’” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at ckim@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @ck_525 .   SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW .     WHAT'D I MISS? — Appeals court rejects Peter Navarro’s bid to stave off jail time: A federal appeals court today denied former Trump White House adviser Peter Navarro’s bid to remain out of jail while he appeals his criminal conviction for defying a subpoena from the Jan. 6 select committee. A three-judge panel ruled Navarro had failed to present “substantial questions of law” that might result in his conviction being overturned. — Prosecutors say Trump’s New York criminal trial could be delayed : Donald Trump’s criminal trial due to start later this month could be postponed after the Manhattan district attorney’s office said in a court filing today that it would accept a 30-day delay in order to review records from federal prosecutors that are related to the case. Any delay in the trial, scheduled to begin March 25, would be a victory for Trump, who has been fighting vigorously to postpone trials in all four of his criminal cases. The Manhattan case, over a hush money payment Trump allegedly orchestrated during the 2016 election to silence a porn star who claimed a sexual encounter with him, is set to be the first of the cases to go to trial. — Biden voices opposition to US Steel sale: President Joe Biden will announce his opposition to the sale of U.S. Steel to Japanese-based Nippon Steel today during a speech in Michigan — a statement that casts serious doubt on the sale of the storied American firm. “U.S. Steel has been an iconic American steel company for more than a century, and it is vital for it to remain an American steel company that is domestically owned and operated,” Biden will say, according to a statement from the White House. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 BOYCOTTING BIDEN — More than three dozen Arab, Muslim and Palestinian-American leaders blasted a White House effort to meet with community organizations in Chicago over the administration’s position on the Israel-Hamas conflict, reports POLITICO. In a joint letter addressed to the White House, the groups criticized the outreach as a bid to “whitewash months of White House inaction,” arguing there was no point in agreeing to more meetings until President Joe Biden changes his approach to the conflict. Several people involved with the letter confirmed they had declined the invitation to the White House meeting. The Coalition for Justice in Palestine, which includes Chicago’s six main Arab and Palestinian groups, organized the letter. Dozens more groups and individuals have signed on, including prominent community leaders and Democratic state Rep. Abdelnasser Rashid, the first Palestinian-American to serve in the Illinois General Assembly. FIRST EVER TOUR — Vice President Kamala Harris visited a Planned Parenthood clinic on today , marking what her office said was the first time a president or vice president has toured a facility that performs abortions, as the White House escalates its defense of reproductive rights in this year’s election, reports the Associated Press. Although Democratic leaders in Minnesota have protected abortion access, neighboring states have banned or severely restricted the procedure. UNCERTAIN SMILE — A Democratic legislator on Wednesday called for an inquiry into South Dakota Republican Gov. Kristi Noem’s trip to Texas for dental work and a promotional video in which she praises the doctors for giving her “a smile I can be proud of and confident in.” State Sen. Reynold Nesiba said he initially found the nearly five-minute video to be simply odd. Later he considered other questions and asked the Republican co-chairs of the Legislature’s Government Operations & Audit Committee to put the matter on the panel’s next meeting agenda in July for discussion and questions. HUH? excerpt:  A Democratic legislator on Wednesday called for an inquiry into South Dakota Republican Gov. Kristi Noem’s trip to Texas for dental work and a promotional video in which she praises the doctors for giving her “a smile I can be proud of and confident in.” State Sen. Reynold Nesiba said he initially found the nearly five-minute video to be simply odd. Later he considered other questions and asked the Republican co-chairs of the Legislature’s Government Operations & Audit Committee to put the matter on the panel’s next meeting agenda in July for discussion and questions. “I just thought it was a very strange video about how much she enjoyed having her teeth done at that particular place,” said Nesiba, a member of the audit committee. AROUND THE WORLD Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) addresses the press on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, March 12, 2024. | Jonah Elkowitz for POLITICO GLOVES OFF — The Biden administration and its allies used to reserve their criticisms of Israel for private conversations. No longer, POLITICO reports. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s floor speech today, criticizing Israel for failing to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and calling for a new election there , served as the capstone to a monthslong U.S. pressure campaign that has moved from the shadows into the public sphere. For Schumer, a typically pro-Israel voice and the highest-ranking Jewish official in American history, to make such comments is a green light for any Israel critic to say their piece. Schumer’s remarks, which he shared beforehand with the White House, come as the Biden administration has intensified its public criticism of Israel’s retaliation against Hamas. Initial full-throated defenses have given way to calls for a six-week cease-fire, the prompt release of hostages held by militants and a greater emphasis on civilian protection. Together, it’s a signal that sympathetic figures like President Joe Biden and Schumer have lost patience with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the war he has led in response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, the single deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. The change in tone is intentional, a senior administration official said. LOSING TRUST — Kensington Palace is no longer a “trusted source” of information after it released a manipulated picture of Kate Middleton and her three children, according to the head of Agence France-Presse (AFP). After the manipulation was detected by a horde of digital sleuths, AFP issued a “kill notice” for the photo, something which is very rarely done — and usually only with content originating from Iranian and North Korean state media sources. Phil Chetwynd, global news director of AFP, told BBC Radio 4’s “The Media Show” that the agency works “all the time” with Kensington Palace, so it would usually consider it a trusted source. But now, the agency will be “more vigilant” about the content it receives.   Easily connect with the right N.Y. State influencers and foster the right relationships to champion your policy priorities. POLITICO Pro. Inside New York. Learn more .     NIGHTLY NUMBER 70,000 The number of homes that America’s first large-scale offshore wind project , completed today, will be able to power. The project is about 30 miles off of Montauk, Long Island. RADAR SWEEP CHEWED UP — The popularity of gum has been on a sharp decline, as breath mints have gotten more popular and the use of mobile phones distracts people from common impulse purchases like a pack of gum. Gum rose to popularity due to a marketing genius named William Wrigley Jr. (of Wrigley’s gum), who started selling the product in the 1890s, and marketed it starting in the 1930s as a way to reduce nerves. Interestingly enough, that plan is coming back — marketing gum as a calming agent that can reduce anxiety. Arwa Mahdawi reports on the product for The Guardian. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1965: Catholic nuns from all parts of metropolitan Boston join an estimated 25,000 people at a civil rights rally on Boston Common. | J. Walter Green/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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