POLITICO Nightly: The presidential race that no one wants

 

BY CALDER MCHUGH Donald Trump and Joe Biden participate in the final presidential debate of the 2020 cycle on Oct. 22, 2020 in Nashville, Tenn. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images COLD SHOWERS — For as long as public polling on the 2024 presidential race has been available, it’s been clear that most Americans don’t want Trump v. Biden II. This week, though, the pure cavalcade of bad news and missteps from both candidates is reminding them why, underscoring the manifest weaknesses and limitations of the two likely presidential nominees, and puncturing the idea that either is on any sort of glide path to victory. There is Donald Trump, who immediately upon seizing the lead against Joe Biden in poll after presidential poll, reached back to the Third Reich for material for his stump speech. In recent weeks, the former president had finally deprived his GOP primary foes of their most potent argument against him — suddenly, the bulk of polling suggested he could defeat Biden. This week, however, Trump’s returned to familiar form, fending off allegations that he’s paraphrasing Hitler and forcing Republicans to answer for his remarks. Loudly insisting “I never read Mein Kampf” is no recipe for winning back suburban moms. Biden isn’t alarming his party with his rhetoric. Rather, it’s the seeming lack of response to his diminished political position. For months, he’s insisted everything is fine and preached calm. “You’re reading the wrong polls,” he insisted to reporters on Sunday. But he remains in a nosedive, with no signs of pulling up. WITH CALLER  ID, WHO ANSWERS THE PHONE?  Monmouth University polling released Monday has Biden sitting at 34 percent approval — his worst job rating ever from the polling shop. And in head-to-head, swing-state matchups with Trump, he’s consistently behind. Biden’s approval rating at this point in his term is the worst of any president at the same point since reputable national polling became available according to FiveThirtyEight, which tracks the stat back to 1945 . No incumbent president has come back from such a hole to victory in the modern political era — and the White House doesn’t have a convincing message to panicked Democrats about why they shouldn’t be sweating. Biden’s great fortune appears to be his opponent. Trump’s legal troubles have come roaring back after simmering in the background. On Tuesday, the Colorado high court ruled that Trump is ineligible to run again for president — and thus won’t appear on the state’s ballot — because of his role in stoking an insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021. The ruling is likely to force the Supreme Court to resolve whether he can hold future public office, adding yet another question for the court to decide, in addition to Special Counsel Jack Smith’s request to the Supreme Court last week that they decide on Trump’s claim that he’s immune to prosecution for charges related to his bid to subvert the 2020 election. But even if the Supreme Court rules in Trump’s favor in one or both of the cases that might be before them, his potential legal liabilities remain a black box that could easily sink his chances. Trump is going to spend much of 2024 in court — his first criminal trial is set to begin in March (though appeals could push back that date), right around when he hopes to wrap up the Republican nomination. Primary voters haven’t seemed to mind Trump’s legal woes, but it’s an open question as to how many Americans will respond when they’re confronted with potential criminal convictions; some of them might remember why they soured on him or held their nose and voted for Biden in the first place. If they’ve forgotten, Trump has provided fresh evidence to the Republican Party of his capriciousness as a leader and his willingness to blow up the party on a whim. Just this week, Trump called for a primary challenge to Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a conservative lawmaker who’s supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Nevermind that the Texas filing deadline has passed already. And from the man who brought you Doug Mastriano, Herschel Walker and Blake Masters, here’s Bernie Moreno: a former car dealer who’s never held elected office and is focused on “fighting the Deep State” in his run for Senate in Ohio. Moreno, who secured Trump’s official announcement on Tuesday, is locked in a tight primary battle with Ohio state Sen. Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank LaRose. A November poll from Emerson College has Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) leading Moreno by 11 points, while only beating LaRose by five and Dolan by three. While Biden avoids the wrecking ball approach to his party, he confronts persistent, nagging problems that he hasn’t been able to knock down — among them, that he’s been an ineffective steward of the economy. Polls report Americans continue to have a grim outlook of the economy — regardless of the actual state of the economy — despite Biden’s best efforts. And on Monday, the president discovered the limits of his embrace of industrial policy. U.S. Steel agreed on Monday to a full cash sale to Japan’s Nippon Steel worth $14.9 billion. The agreement has Rust Belt Democrats running for reelection — including Ohio’s Brown and Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania — apoplectic, while Republicans pile on. It also takes some real air out of Biden’s carefully constructed self-image as a manufacturing whisperer who can protect American jobs, an essential part of his pitch to voters in key Midwestern swing states. Add to that Biden’s political vulnerability on border security — voters vastly prefer Trump to Biden on immigration issues — where the president is resting his hopes on an elusive bipartisan immigration deal. Again, this week provided another cold shower: After weeks of bargaining to wrap the issue up before the holidays, any lasting hopes of an agreement fell apart on Tuesday as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell issued a joint statement that they’re “committed” to getting something done in the new year. Even if Biden can get a deal through, he’ll assuredly have to swallow concessions that will infuriate much of his party. As Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.) told POLITICO , “I’m an absolute no on any bill that’s going to change asylum status, or remove parole.” It’s a needle that might just be impossible to thread. Look at France, which passed a hardline immigration bill this week that has far-right leader Marine Le Pen claiming “ideological victory” and centrist President Emmanuel Macron’s party in total chaos. With the left — and in particular, young progressive voters — already threatening to abandon Biden in droves due to his support of Israel’s incursion into Gaza, a rightward lurch on immigration could drive these voters into the hands of a third-party candidate or to their couches next November. Together, the recent run of show may have provided a revealing glance at what’s to come: a campaign that can’t gain momentum between candidates Americans don’t want. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh . PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off next week for the holidays but back to our normal schedule on Tuesday, Jan. 2.   GLOBAL PLAYBOOK IS TAKING YOU TO DAVOS! Unlock the insider's guide to one of the world's most influential gatherings as POLITICO's Global Playbook takes you behind the scenes of the 2024 World Economic Forum. Author Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground in the Swiss Alps, bringing you the exclusive conversations, shifting power dynamics and groundbreaking ideas shaping the agenda in Davos. Stay in the know with POLITICO's Global Playbook, your VIP pass to the world’s most influential gatherings. SUBSCRIBE NOW .     WHAT'D I MISS? — Venezuela hands U.S. ‘Fat Leonard’ and others in prisoner exchange: Venezuela has released 10 Americans as part of a prisoner exchange with the United States , along with famed fugitive “Fat Leonard,” senior Biden administration officials told reporters today. Overall, more than 30 detainees are expected to be freed. The U.S. is releasing alleged money launderer Alex Saab, an ally of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, to the South American nation as part of the trade. — Humanitarian groups urge Austin to halt Israel aid over Gaza operations: A group of prominent humanitarian organizations is calling on Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to halt military and other aid to Israel over its operations in Gaza that they say have caused “staggering” civilian harm, according to a letter sent to the Pentagon chief today. The groups, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, urged Austin in the letter to “withhold U.S. assistance, in accordance with U.S. law and policy, that would facilitate violations of international humanitarian law” and “refrain from transferring explosive weapons to Israel for use in Gaza.” The letter was also sent to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser. — Biden: Trump’s an insurrectionist but courts can decide his ballot fate: President Joe Biden said today there was no question that former President Donald Trump was responsible for leading an insurrection . But he declined to weigh in on the legal argument unleashed by the Colorado Supreme Court’s ruling that barred Trump from the state’s ballot, pointedly leaving those matters to the judiciary. “It’s self-evident. You saw it all. Now whether the 14th Amendment applies, I’ll let the court make that decision,” the president said during a trip to Wisconsin. “But he certainly supported an insurrection. No question about it. None. Zero.” NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 CHRISTIE’S CRUSADE — Calling the latest wave of the nation’s drug crisis “a test of our national resolve,” Republican presidential hopeful Chris Christie returned to a New Hampshire recovery center today to outline a people-focused, not punitive, policy plan , reports the Associated Press. Christie led a White House commission on opioid misuse in 2017, and he praised former president Donald Trump for endorsing all 56 of its recommendations. But only about half have been enacted, and both Trump and President Joe Biden have treated the problem as a crisis in name only, Christie said. Meanwhile, other Republican presidential candidates have focused too narrowly on preventing drugs from getting into the country, he said. ‘FLAGRANT VIOLATION’ — Marianne Williamson is crying foul after the Massachusetts Democratic Party submitted only President Joe Biden’s name for the state’s Super Tuesday presidential primary ballot, reports POLITICO. “Dem Chair Steve Kerrigan’s misplaced attempt at protecting Joe Biden robs Massachusetts Democrats of their voice and choice in the upcoming election,” Williamson, the longshot Democratic presidential candidate, wrote in a post on X , formerly known as Twitter, today. “This action is a flagrant violation of DNC rules and process.” Massachusetts Democrats are the latest in a string of state parties to leave the president’s challengers off their lists of candidates for the primary ballot, in what Biden’s rivals have decried as incumbent protection that disenfranchises voters. But there are two other ways to get on the primary ballot in Massachusetts. Candidates can submit 2,500 nominating signatures to local election officials by Friday, or the secretary of state can add candidates who have been “recognized by the national media” if their party doesn’t put their name forward. AROUND THE WORLD Migrants sail after boarding a smuggler's boat on the beach of Gravelines, near Dunkirk, northern France on Oct. 12, 2022, in an attempt to cross the English Channel. | Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP via Getty Images WE’VE GOT A DEAL — The European Union today broke years of political deadlock by agreeing on a deal that will significantly change how the bloc limits migrant entry , moves migrants around EU countries and effectively makes it easier to deport unsuccessful asylum seeker applicants, reports POLITICO EU. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola hailed the deal as historic. Negotiators worked through the night to agree on the overhaul of the EU’s asylum procedures, signaling a shift to the right after years of failed attempts to agree on regulations appeasing both border countries that want help handling asylum seekers and inland countries that argue too many migrants are arriving in one EU country, and then moving on to others. Under the agreement, which still needs to be formally ratified, front-line countries in Southern Europe will institute a stricter asylum procedure at their non-EU borders and will be more empowered to deport rejected asylum seekers. Countries further inland will be given a choice of whether to accept a certain number of migrants or pay into a joint EU fund. “Migration is a European challenge that requires European solutions,” European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said, further signaling a unified EU-backing of stricter measures to combat the rising popularity of anti-immigrant far-right platforms across Europe. The deal comes just six months before the EU election, with polls showing a surge in support for far-right, anti-immigration parties in countries like Germany and the Netherlands. The debate around immigration is set to be a decisive and divisive element of elections in Europe in 2024.   POLITICO AT CES® 2024 : We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show .     NIGHTLY NUMBER 21 percent The percentage of mayors who reported a decrease in optimism since taking office , according to POLITICO’s final Mayors Club survey. Of 47 mayors who responded, 10 mayors stated some decrease in optimism after serving as mayor, with 14 reporting no change since taking the role. Three mayors declined to answer. RADAR SWEEP ART OR AI? — Would Michelangelo use AI to help create his now famous sculptures if he had the technology back then? According to Giacomo Massari from the company Litix, of course he would — and Litix is hoping to recreate the marbled beauties he once made. In Carrara, Italy — the epicenter for the pearly white marble used in Michelangelo’s sculptures — Massari and sculptor Filippo Tincolini have created Litix, a company creating automated robotic sculptors. The company is using AI and robotic arms to help recreate famous sculptures, including those from history previously destroyed. In a story for Smithsonian Magazine, Elaine Sciolino and photographer Caleb Stein take us into the world of a tech company lodged within the historic marble mountains of Carrara looking to bring art and AI together. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1994: Former President Jimmy Carter smiles as he walks out of the Bosnian Serbs headquarters while Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadžić follows after a meeting. Carter traveled to Bosnia to help broker peace in the midst of sectarian violence in the region, and said that Karadžić had agreed to a four-month nationwide cease-fire. Karadžić was later convicted of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes by the ICC for his part in the directed extermination of non-Serbs in the region. | Michel Euler/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA