‘THE DEVIL THEY KNOW’ — The fate of one of the world’s most powerful leaders now hangs in the balance as more than 60 million Turkish voters weigh who to support in the second round of their country’s presidential elections. One thing is clear, though, after Sunday’s vote. Despite crippling inflation and allegations of cronyism, going heavy on Turkish nationalism is still a winning political strategy. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has held the top job for almost a decade, defied predictions and took home 49 percent in the election. That’s despite growing anger over the worsening economy and the government’s flawed handling of the earthquakes that cost more than 50,000 people their lives in February. “We strongly believe we will continue to serve our nation for the next five years,” the populist leader said in a jubilant speech at a flag-waving rally in Ankara. Neither he nor his main rival, liberal economist Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, actually received the outright majority required to win, but Erdoğan now appears on the cusp of securing an unprecedented third term in a runoff vote in just under two weeks. Riding high on nationalist rhetoric, he has sought to convince voters that only he has Turkey’s best interests at heart in a growing geopolitical standoff between the West and the East. “The opposition underestimated the identity politics that Erdoğan and his nationalist partners were playing,” says Lisel Hintz, assistant professor of international relations at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. “They claimed a Western coup was afoot, that he was a Western puppet and that this was all part a ploy by the U.S. and George Soros.” Meanwhile, on the international stage, Erdoğan has deftly played Russia and Washington against each other, supplying advanced attack drones to Ukraine while buying up cheap Russian oil and gas. More valuable to NATO than ever before, Ankara has held up Sweden’s application to join the alliance, but at the same time secured President Joe Biden’s approval for new fighter jet upgrades . Hopes that Kılıçdaroğlu might come to power and prove a more reliable ally now appear to have been all but crushed. To come out on top, the 74-year-old would have to win over supporters of Sinan Oğan, the eliminated ultranationalist candidate who nonetheless did unexpectedly well on the back of his fiery anti-refugee rhetoric. But, by doing so, Kılıçdaroğlu risks alienating the marginalized Kurdish community whose backing he needs to win. That’s not the only pressure his campaign faces. Just hours before the polls opened, Twitter confirmed it would “restrict access to some content in Turkey,” raising concerns for the democratic process. The social network’s owner, Elon Musk, said the decision was taken to avoid seeing “Twitter throttled in its entirety.” Now, there’s little doubt about the eventual result. “Nationalism has worked for Erdoğan and he’s the one with the path to victory,” says Dimitar Bechev, a University of Oxford academic and the author of a new book on how the president has turned his country against the West. “There are mixed feelings in the U.S. and Europe,” Bechev says. “On one hand, they’ll be disappointed but, despite that, there will be some relief that they’ll likely still be dealing with the devil they know.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at ggavin@politico.eu or on Twitter at @GabrielCSGavin .
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