Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO NIGHTLY: The ‘territorial dispute’ that took over the GOP primary

Friday, March 17, 2023

POLITICO NIGHTLY: The ‘territorial dispute’ that took over the GOP primary

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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks at an event Friday, March 10, 2023, in Davenport, Iowa. | Ron Johnson/AP Photo

‘AMERICAN RETREAT’ — With just two words, the tension between traditionally hawkish Republican foreign policy and the views of the increasingly populist and non-interventionist, Trump-era GOP burst into the open this week.

By describing the war in Ukraine as a mere “territorial dispute” — and thus not a vital interest to the United States — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis abruptly reminded the Republican Party that there may not be as much distance between its two presidential front-runners as many thought.

The alignment with former President Donald Trump’s views on Ukraine has resulted in some of the first real blowback DeSantis has experienced on the right since his meteoric rise. A Wall Street Journal editorial panned the governor’s position , calling it a “puzzling surrender to the Trumpian temptation of American retreat.’’

It’s not nearly enough to damage his 2024 prospects — it might actually burnish them in some quarters of the party. There’s polling that suggests DeSantis’ position might actually be ahead of the party curve .

But at the moment — in Washington, at least — his reluctance to become “further entangled ” or to provide more funding to Kyiv in the aftermath of the Russian invasion has generated more intra-party criticism that DeSantis is accustomed to.

Nightly spoke to Burgess Everett, POLITICO’s congressional bureau chief , to get a clearer sense of how DeSantis’ views on Ukraine are playing with congressional Republicans.

If you read between the lines, there seems to be some robust pushback to DeSantis’ Ukraine position from several senators, including Senate heavyweights like Mitt Romney and John Cornyn. Cornyn, as you know, said he prefers a candidate who won’t “kowtow to the isolationist wing of the Republican Party.” How would you characterize the level of support for supplying lethal aid to Ukraine within the Senate GOP Conference?

It’s roughly a 75/25 split within the Senate GOP, but there is some nuance there. Some people want Europe to pay more, or want strict accountability about where the money goes, but within the conference the DeSantis/Trump position is not popular. Now, will it be a deal-breaker when it comes to supporting the eventual GOP nominee? I have my doubts.

What does the Senate GOP’s isolationist or non-interventionist wing look like? Who are the leading voices?

They definitely prefer the latter moniker over the former. Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) are kind of the OGs on the issue, but there’s some newer voices taking the same approach, namely Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and J.D. Vance (R-Ohio). There’s also folks like Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) and Mike Braun (R-Ind.), who object more to the amount of money being spent versus the policy of aiding Ukraine.

How does Senate GOP support for arming Ukraine compare to the House? Are the two chambers largely aligned in their views or not?

Generally speaking, the House Republicans are more conservative and more supportive of Trump. We are starting to see some warmth to DeSantis, like Rep. Chip Roy’s (R-Texas) pre-endorsement, which gives you a sense of where things are going in the House GOP. But if you put up a Ukraine aid bill later this year for a vote in the House, it would pass. Would it get 75 percent of the House GOP? Maybe not. But the standalone May vote passed 368-57.

What is the prevailing view of DeSantis among Republican senators?

Certainly some skepticism. And folks are all waiting to see what Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) does before making a move; there’s going to be some loyalty there that could freeze people from endorsing Trump, DeSantis or anyone else. Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) is rooting for DeSantis to get in, so people definitely want to have a choice between candidates. Few Senate Republicans want to coronate Trump again; at a minimum they want a contested primary. But House members know DeSantis better than the senators.

Have many Republican senators endorsed so far in the 2024 primary? Do you expect them to? What kinds of political considerations will drive their decisions?

Trump has five Senate endorsements. There are also some senators that are unlikely to endorse him even if he wins the nomination. But there’s not really a strong movement to defeat Trump brewing right now in the Senate. I spoke to Lummis yesterday and she’s going to wait to see what Scott does before doing anything on behalf of DeSantis. I do think Trump is relying on folks he’s helped in the past few cycles to form his base. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is the only multi-term senator backing Trump.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on Twitter at @PoliticoCharlie .

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WHAT'D I MISS?

— Senate takes first step toward repealing two authorizations for war in Iraq: The Senate voted Thursday to formally move forward on repealing the 1991 and 2002 authorizations for use of military force in Iraq , setting up future amendment votes on the package before final passage. The bill, led by Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.), ultimately secured the support of 19 Republicans. "Dropping these war authorizations has a way of sending a very powerful signal that the United States and Iraq working together will be a voice for stability in the region," Kaine said at a press conference after the vote.

— Yellen seeks to calm lawmakers amid banking turmoil: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday sought to calm mounting concerns about financial instability as the banking industry reels over the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last week. With lawmakers drawing sides over arcane financial rules, Yellen’s appearance before the Senate Finance Committee offered an opportunity to test their lines of attack. The Biden administration’s Sunday rescue plan for the Northern California bank’s customers, along with those of Signature — a New York institution that was shuttered that day — were essential for stemming a possible contagion that put “community banks across the country at great risk of runs,” Yellen said.

— Big lenders inject $30B into embattled First Republic Bank: The biggest U.S. banks are pouring $30 billion into First Republic Bank to bolster the beleaguered San Francisco lender and try to ease growing concern about the health of the nation’s financial system. The banks coordinated the maneuver in consultation with federal regulators amid the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank’s failure last week, according to three executives with knowledge of the matter. The move by the 11 top lenders demonstrates “the resilience of the banking system,” according to a joint statement from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu.

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NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

LOVELESS — Interviews with 12 people who worked for Democrat Marianne Williamson during her 2020 presidential campaign paint a picture of a boss who can be verbally and emotionally abusive , reports POLITICO’s Lauren Egan. Those interviewed say the best-selling author and spiritual adviser subjected her employees to unpredictable, explosive episodes of anger. They said Williamson could be cruel and demeaning to her staff and that her behavior went far beyond the typical stress of a grueling presidential cycle. Williamson would throw her phone at staffers, according to three of those former staffers. Her outbursts could be so loud that two former aides recounted at least four occasions when hotel staff knocked on her door to check on the situation.

FLORIDA PROBLEM — As DeSantis cast out to early nominating states in recent days, even some of the Florida governor’s supporters could see a problem brewing for him back home, write POLITICO’S David Siders, Sally Goldenberg and Gary Fineout. Lawmakers in his home state are advancing controversial bills on gender and diversity policy — base-pleasing issues for Republicans, but a potential liability in a general election. And on one cultural issue that did hurt Republicans in the midterm elections — abortion — DeSantis is going even further to the right, preparing to sign a bill banning the procedure after six weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for rape and incest if victims offer proof of a crime.

VEEP AUDITIONS — The first Republican presidential primaries are nearly a year away and the candidate field is unsettled. But already, the AP reports, a shadow contest of another sort is underway with several Republicans openly jockeying to position themselves as potential running mates to Trump, the early front-runner for the nomination.

DUSK IN AMERICA — Comments from 2024 Republican presidential hopefuls — either declared or expected — underscore the dark undertones and apocalyptic rhetoric that have pervaded much of the Republican Party in the era of Trump. The rhetoric from the declared and potential GOP candidates so far is remarkable for its dystopian tone, the Washington Post writes. In many high-profile moments, these Republicans portray the nation as locked in an existential battle, where the stark combat lines denote not just policy disagreements but warring camps of saviors versus villains, and where political opponents are regularly demonized.

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AROUND THE WORLD

Protesters shout slogans during a demonstration in Lyon, France, on March 11, 2023. | AP Photo/Laurent Cipriani

FRENCH BYPASS — French President Emmanuel Macron authorized the use of a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and impose his deeply unpopular pensions reform, in a move that dealt a significant blow to his leadership, writes POLITICO Europe’s Clea Caulcutt .

Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne announced in parliament Thursday afternoon that the government was invoking article 49.3 of the constitution, in what is seen as a nuclear option ahead of what would have been a key vote in the National Assembly. The surprise move allowed the government to push through legislation without submitting it to a parliamentary vote.

POLAND’S BUMPY RIDE — Last month, Polish President Andrzej Duda approached opposition leader Donald Tusk to shake hands, as they gathered to hear United States President Joe Biden’s keynote speech during his second trip to Warsaw in a year. And as September’s parliamentary elections draw closer, another handshake between the two political opponents seems unlikely, with the ruling conservative-nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS) and the opposition already at each other’s throats, squabbling over everything — including the Ukraine war. As PiS seeks a third straight term in office — something no party has achieved before in Poland’s democratic history — the question is whether or not this election will be more toxic than previous electoral clashes. And Poles are already wearily buckling up for a bumpy ride, writes Jamie Dettmer for POLITICO Europe.

NON-ALIGNMENT THEORY — Brazil’s new President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has so far shown little concern about defying consensus in the West on foreign policy — even when it comes to dealing with authoritarian governments, the AP reports. In recent weeks, Lula’s Brazil sent a delegation to Venezuela, refused to sign a UN resolution condemning Nicaragua’s human rights abuses, allowed Iranian warships to dock in Rio de Janeiro and flatly refused to send weapons to Ukraine, at war with Russia. These decisions have raised eyebrows in the U.S. and Europe, but experts said Lula is reactivating Brazil’s decades-old principle of non-alignment to carve out a policy that best safeguards its interests in an increasingly multi-polar world.

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

57 percent

The percentage of firearm deaths attributed to suicide by gun in the past five years, according to federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention preliminary data analyzed by Stateline .

RADAR SWEEP

STAND BY YOUR MAN — Male artists have dominated the country music airwaves for decades — and the share of annual airplay for female artists is shrinking. According to one analysis, women artists received just 11 percent of all airplay in 2022 on the 156 country stations that report their data to Mediabase, a music industry service. Twenty years ago, women artists received 22 percent . “Female artists are not receiving adequate airplay, so their songs do not end up charting, and then they end up not being eligible for awards because you have to be on a chart to be eligible for nomination,” one expert told the 19th’s Jennifer Gerson and Jasmine Mithani.

PARTING IMAGE

On this day in 1992: Los Angeles Police Lieutenant Patrick Conmay testifies in the trial of four Los Angeles police officers charged in the assault on motorist Rodney King at the East County courthouse in Simi Valley, Calif. | Nick Ut/AP Photo

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