Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO NIGHTLY: Ballot measures could change how Americans vote, gamble and smoke

Thursday, October 27, 2022

POLITICO NIGHTLY: Ballot measures could change how Americans vote, gamble and smoke

With help from Charlie Mahtesian

Gamblers stand at betting windows at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. Two ballot measures aim to expand gambling in the state. | Mario Tama/Getty Images

DIRECT DEMOCRACY — On Nov. 8, voters in 38 states will have the opportunity to vote on 140 certified statewide ballot measures — 20 more than in 2020. Some are standard fare — more money for infrastructure, or schools, or environmental protections — while others could change how Americans live and vote. There are even attempts to right past wrongs, with several measures attempting to pave the way for prisoners to challenge forced labor laws .

Here are five of the most notable and consequential ballot measures:

A new voting system in Nevada: If Nevada’s Question 3 passes, one of the nation’s premier swing states could see its electoral system overhauled.

The initiative asks whether Nevada voters want to implement ranked choice voting, a system by which voters rank candidates in order of preference. The consequences of RCV are playing out now in Alaska, where the state’s recently installed RCV system has Republican Sarah Palin openly saying she will rank Democratic rival Rep. Mary Peltola second over fellow Republican Nick Begich III and many Begich supporters refusing to rank anyone else. In short, the system is scrambling the dynamics in a traditionally red state.

In Alaska, RCV helped Peltola win a special election this summer (against the same current challengers, Palin and Begich) and has her in the driver’s seat to defend her seat this fall. In Nevada, however, top Democrats are in unison opposing the idea , which they argue will dampen turnout by making voting more “error-prone, confusing and exclusionary.” And many Republican officials agree . Pro-RCV groups, on the other hand, argue that ranking candidates produces outcomes that are more representative of voters’ wishes.

Sports gambling in California: California is considering two ballot initiatives — Proposition 26 and Proposition 27 — that would legalize sports betting. Prop. 26 would legalize sports betting in-person at tribal casinos and private race tracks, while Prop. 27 would legalize online sports betting. The campaigns for and against have spent staggering sums of money, even by California standards, making the two measures cumulatively the most expensive in ballot initiative history — approaching $550 million raised in total . That’s close to the amount of total spending on the 2000 presidential race, in 2022 dollars.

With online sports gambling sweeping the country, proponents argue that Prop. 27 in particular could bring in a windfall of cash. Most tribal leaders support Prop. 26, which would allow them to expand gambling operations in California, but oppose Prop. 27 out of concerns that online gambling could eat into their profits. Despite the massive spending, both measures look poised to fail, according to recent polling.

Abortion rights in Michigan: Michigan abortion rights groups fought hard to get Proposal 3 on the ballot this November. If passed, the measure would enshire the right to abortion in the Michigan constitution, reversing the state’s 1931 abortion ban, which is currently blocked by state courts but could be allowed to take effect by the Michigan Supreme Court.

Democrats around the country have made abortion rights a pillar of their pitch to voters in the aftermath of the overturning of Roe v. Wade . Now, Michigan voters will have the chance to vote directly on whether abortion in the state should be legal (as will voters in California and Vermont; voters in Montana and Kentucky will consider variations on the question of a right to abortion). Recent polls indicate strong support for the measure in Michigan.

Democrats are hoping that Proposal 3 can generate big turnout, which they expect would boost the party’s prospects up and down the ballot, including Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s reelection bid.

Establishing a minimum wage in Nebraska: Nebraska currently has a minimum wage of $9/hour, above the federal minimum wage of $7.25/hour but trailing behind more than half of the country. Initiative Measure 433 would raise the state’s minimum wage to $15/hour by 2026, an increase that proponents argue is necessary amid rising inflation.

While raising the federal minimum wage was a much-discussed issue during the 2020 campaign — and in particular during Democratic primaries — the issue appears to have fallen off President Joe Biden’s to-do list. If a minimum wage increase can succeed in a red state, it could put the issue back on the map for Democrats.

Marijuana legalization in Arkansas: Nineteen states have already made marijuana use legal. Arkansas could be next. About two in every three American voters support legalizing the recreational use of marijuana, according to a YouGov poll , but so far, legalization has mostly passed in blue states. If Issue 4 — Arkansas’ marijuana legalization initiative — passes, it would be the most conservative state to legalize recreational weed use. (Five other states are considering ballot initiatives this year that would do the same).

The measure enjoys bipartisan support, and libertarians have come out strongly on the side of legalization. However, since September, when Arkansas’ Supreme Court agreed that the initiative could be considered by voters in November, some top GOP figures have decided to turn up the heat against the measure. Sen. Tom Cotton recently warned against “following California’s path” and that passing Issue 4 would lead to “more crime, more addiction, and more traffic fatalities.”

Recent polling suggests that voters still narrowly prefer legalization, though the race has gotten tighter — support has fallen from 59 percent in September to 51 percent in October .

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on Twitter at @calder_mchugh .

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POLL WATCHER

49 percent

The percentage of voters who say they will definitely vote for Republican Ted Budd for Senate in North Carolina, according to a new poll from Marist . Democrat Cheri Beasley has the support of 45 percent of “definite” voters. Among registered voters in the same poll, the two candidates are tied at 44 percent.

WHAT'D I MISS?

Trains sit at the CSX Oak Point Yard, a freight railroad yard in the Bronx borough of New York City. | Spencer Platt/Getty Images

— Second rail union rejects deal, raising strike threat anew: Yet another union voted down a proposed contract with the freight railroad industry today , again pushing the nation toward an economically devastating rail strike as soon as next month. Today's vote by the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen makes it the second rail union to reject a compromise since mid-September, when eleventh-hour deal-making by the Biden administration averted the threat of an immediate work stoppage.

— Trump team receives subpoena from Jan. 6 committee: Attorneys for former President Donald Trump have accepted service of a subpoena issued by the Jan. 6 select committee demanding documents and testimony from the former president by next month. The Jan. 6 panel wants Trump to provide relevant documents by Nov. 4 and appear for a deposition by Nov. 14, though neither deadline is likely to hold. Trump has given no public indication about whether he will challenge the subpoena in court, a process that would all but ensure he never testifies before the panel.

— Menendez facing another federal investigation: Sen. Bob Menendez is facing a federal investigation, an adviser to the New Jersey Democrat confirmed to POLITICO today. Citing two sources, the digital news organization Semafor reported that the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York is investigating Menendez — five years after he beat federal corruption charges.

— South Carolina judge rules Mark Meadows must testify in 2020 election probe: A judge in South Carolina ruled today that former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows must testify in a probe by Atlanta-area prosecutors of 2020 election subversion efforts, according to a spokesperson for the prosecutors. Prosecutors have sought Meadows’ testimony about his involvement in efforts by Trump and his allies to overturn the 2020 election, including Georgia’s results.

— Jan. 6 rioter gets probation not prison after judge finds autism played a role: A Jan. 6 rioter who wielded a hatchet and smashed two windows with a flagpole will serve no jail time , a federal judge ruled today, finding that Asperger’s syndrome made him susceptible to the influence of the mob. Nicholas Rodean of Frederick, Md., attempted to address U.S. District Court Judge Trevor McFadden today and visibly struggled to complete thoughts and sentences while explaining and apologizing for his Jan. 6 conduct. At one point, he clutched his head in frustration.

JOIN WOMEN RULE THURSDAY FOR A TALK WITH DEPARTING MEMBERS OF CONGRESS: A historic wave of retirements is hitting Congress, including several prominent Democratic women such as Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, House Democrats’ former campaign chief. What is driving their departures? Join POLITICO on Oct. 27 for “The Exit Interview,” a virtual event that will feature a conversation with departing members where they'll explain why they decided to leave office and what challenges face their parties ahead. REGISTER HERE .

AROUND THE WORLD

French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and French President Emmanuel Macron. | AP Photo/Michel Euler, Pool

FRENCH DISPATCH — French parliamentary politics this week turned into a game of liar’s poker in which winners are losers and losers are winners, writes John Lichfield .

Two votes of confidence in the National Assembly on Monday night, when the far right and far left voted against the government, failed to bring down the centrist Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne. The unexpected joint vote could, all the same, signal trouble ahead.

Borne came within 50 votes of being forced out of office — a much narrower margin than expected.

The narrowness of Monday’s vote suggests that President Emmanuel Macron and Borne will find it hard to push through legislation, such as their planned reform of the French pension system — a centerpiece of Macron’s reelection agenda. They can use their emergency powers under article 49.3 of the Constitution only once a year for non-financial legislation.

The clear tactical “winner” of the night was the far-right leader Marine Le Pen. After bluffing the Assembly and the media, she switched her party’s 89 votes at the last minute to support a censure motion tabled by the left.

NIGHTLY NUMBER

$10 million

The amount of money that Michael Bloomberg is sending to the House Majority PAC in an effort to help vulnerable Democratic House members. Bloomberg, who has a longstanding relationship with Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is attempting to buttress Democratic funding in an unfriendly environment, where they are likely to lose the House. This new money brings Bloomberg’s total spending in 2020 on Democratic candidates and causes up to $70 million.

RADAR SWEEP

ICE, ICE BABY — Glaciers in Antarctica are hemorrhaging trillions of tons of ice as climate change heats the planet. What’s it like to watch this environment decay and study how the melting of ice caps could be picking up? Douglas Fox embedded with a group of scientists in Antarctica tasked with this mission for Scientific American.

PARTING WORDS

Nightly editor Charlie Mahtesian , a Philadelphia native and devoted Phillies and Eagles fan, writes about the sleeper issue from Tuesday’s Pennsylvania Senate debate.

Phillies fans blending politics and sports at Citizens Bank Park during the National League Championship Series. | Elsa/Getty Images

RED NOVEMBER — At the end of a rough night for Democrat John Fetterman in Tuesday’s debate against Republican Mehmet Oz, the moderator switched gears and threw both Pennsylvania Senate candidates a softball.

“The eyes of the state are on this debate tonight,” the moderator began, “but on Sunday, they will be on Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia as the state’s two NFL teams go head-to-head. Mr. Fetterman, Steelers or Eagles, and why?”

When it was posed, the question evoked groans across social media. Some saw it as an insipid query, a wasted opportunity to ask a substantive question in a race that could determine control of the Senate. Surely there were more important issues to address, among them the lingering effects of a stroke Fetterman suffered in May — effects that were clear from his weak debate performance.

Yet the campaigns themselves have recognized that sports loyalties are no small matter in a contest where authenticity matters a great deal and Oz’s ties to Pennsylvania are suspect.

As part of the effort to remind voters that the celebrity doctor has only recently moved to Pennsylvania, Fetterman’s campaign has consistently trolled Oz about which teams he supports. They’ve mined social media to make the case that Oz is a New York Yankees fan and a New York Giants fan. When the Phillies faced the San Diego Padres in the National League Championship Series last week — an event that sparked civic euphoria in Philadelphia — the Fetterman campaign uncovered and tweeted out a photo of Oz wearing a Padres jersey .

Before that, in advance of a much-anticipated Oct. 16 Eagles game against bitter division rival Dallas, the campaign purchased billboards not far from Lincoln Financial Field accusing Oz of being a Cowboys fan.

No sports detail has been too small to overlook: At a recent Fetterman rally, attendees were given “Phillies fans for Fetterman” signs, replete with the Phillies signature font.

There’s a reason for the exacting approach — in a race this close, in a state this tribal, everything little thing matters. Fetterman has led in virtually every poll since winning the nomination five months ago — he had a double-digit advantage in surveys as late as August. But Oz has gradually closed in on him, to the point where the race is now within the margin of error, according to most polls.

At the debate, when asked about Sunday’s rare matchup between teams from Pennsylvania’s two largest cities, Fetterman quickly admitted allegiance to the Steelers — a near-religion in Western Pennsylvania. To answer anything else would have been fatal to his political brand.

Oz, who has appeared at Eagles and Penn State tailgate parties during the campaign, went a step further. “I’ll be at the game rooting for my Eagles,” he said, before awkwardly humming the beginning of the Eagles fight song.

There’s no way to know whether any of these expressions of loyalty or disdain will make a difference. But they can’t be overlooked either in a closely divided state where Biden edged out Trump by just 82,000 votes in 2020.

This year, the Senate race will likely be decided in Philadelphia and its populous suburbs, at a time when the city’s wildly devoted and long-suffering fan base is basking in the glory of the undefeated Eagles and the World Series-contending Phillies. In the final two weeks of the election, it won’t be easy for the campaign messaging to break through. Aside from the upcoming Eagles-Steelers game, the World Series begins Friday. If there is a Game 7, it is scheduled for the Friday before Election Day.