Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Undecided voters for the win

Friday, August 26, 2022

POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Undecided voters for the win

SURVEY SAYS — Two new polls released less than two weeks before the state primaries show several key races are still up for grabs with plenty of undecided voters at play.

A MassINC Polling Group poll conducted for Priorities for Progress found 53 percent of likely Democratic primary voters have yet to pick an auditor candidate, 50 percent haven’t settled on a lieutenant governor, 32 percent are undecided for attorney general and 23 percent have yet to choose between the two candidates for secretary of state.

A Fiscal Alliance Foundation Poll conducted by Republican-aligned firm Advantage Inc. found more than 70 percent of Democratic primary voters were undecided for auditor and lieutenant governor, 49 percent for attorney general and 31 percent for secretary of state. The survey of 563 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted Aug. 22-23 and has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

The MassINC poll also showed that the majority of likely Democratic primary voters haven’t heard of several statewide candidates, including all three lieutenant governor hopefuls, both auditor candidates, attorney general hopeful Quentin Palfrey and secretary of state challenger Tanisha Sullivan. The survey of 401 registered voters conducted Aug. 19-21 has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

“With major turnover in state government, you'd hope for closely watched contests,” MassINC Polling Group President Steve Koczela told Playbook. “But both of these polls show most voters know little, if anything, about the candidates running for several of these offices.”

There are two ways to interpret that: The first is that many statewide candidates haven’t done the best job of introducing themselves to voters despite in some cases campaigning for more than a year.

The second is that there’s still time for these candidates to make their mark, whether that’s through advertising — most statewide office-seekers are now up on the airwaves — packing their schedules with public events or dialing up voter outreach efforts like phone banking. But there are only 11 days left, and early in-person voting starts tomorrow.

GOOD FRIDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Here are a few other takeaways from the polls:

— Shannon Liss-Riordan’s pricey ad buys might be paying off. The attorney general hopeful has poured more than $4.5 million into television, cable and radio ads since early July, funded in part by the $3 million she gave her campaign. Now her support has grown from 6 percent in MassINC's June poll to 26 percent in the August survey, just behind polling leader Andrea Campbell's 28 percent.

— There could be a split GOP ticket for November. Geoff Diehl leads gubernatorial primary opponent Chris Doughty 42 percent to 27 percent in the Fiscal Alliance Foundation poll. But Doughty’s so-called running mate, Kate Campanale, leads Diehl’s campaign-trail partner, Leah Cole Allen, 19 percent to 13 percent for lieutenant governor. Take that with a grain of salt given the high number of undecided voters and the small 187-person sample size.

— Secretary of State Bill Galvin is leading challenger Tanisha Sullivan by more than double the percentage points in both polls.

TODAY — Sen. Elizabeth Warren is in North Adams at 12:45 p.m. LG hopeful and state Rep. Tami Gouveia campaigns in western Massachusetts. Campbell campaigns in Northampton.

THIS WEEKEND — Warren hosts a meet-and-greet at Greenfield Community College at 10:30 a.m. Saturday. Healey, Campbell and Rep. Ayanna Pressley host an early voting kickoff at 11 a.m. Saturday in Boston. Healey, Campbell and Rep. Jake Auchincloss host a canvass kickoff in Newton at 2 p.m.

SUNDAY SHOWS — Doughty and Diehl are on WBZ’s “Keller @ Large” for back-to-back interviews beginning at 8:30 a.m. Auchincloss is on WCVB’s “On the Record” at 11 a.m. Sunday.

Tips? Scoops? Stories you want to see before the primary? Email me: lkashinsky@politico.com.

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THE LATEST NUMBERS

— “Massachusetts reports 7,952 new COVID cases, doctors urge vaccines for students returning to school,” by Rick Sobey, Boston Herald: “The state’s daily average of 1,136 COVID cases from the last week is a drop from the daily rate of 1,175 infections during the previous week. Infection counts have been trending down in recent weeks.”

— “Massachusetts reports 37 new monkeypox cases, Boston health officials encourage eligible residents to get vaccinated,” by Rick Sobey, Boston Herald: “The count of 37 new monkeypox cases in the Bay State is down from 41 cases during the previous week. … It brings the total number of monkeypox cases in the state to 280 since the state’s first case was announced in mid-May.”

— "Town-by-town COVID-19 data in Massachusetts," by Ryan Huddle and Peter Bailey-Wells, Boston Globe.

DATELINE BEACON HILL

— “In wake of Uvalde school shooting, Mass. officials unveil $40 million proposal to make classrooms safer,” by Alison Kuznitz, MassLive: “Massachusetts officials, bracing for unthinkable school shootings that could roil communities across the commonwealth much in the mold of the Uvalde tragedy, unveiled a $40 million plan Thursday to bolster safety and training initiatives with scant days remaining until students return to the classroom following summer break. Gov. Charlie Baker announced he’ll soon file the spending package that encompasses matching grants for ‘security and communication upgrades’ for K-12 public schools, as well as at colleges and universities.”

— “Charlie Baker ‘disturbed’ by comments made by teachers union president,” by Matthew Medsger, Boston Herald: “The Baker Administration is not pleased with recent remarks by the head of the Massachusetts Teachers Association regarding a plan to raise the minimum score required to pass the MCAS. … [Gov. Charlie Baker spoke] in response to an assertions by MTA President Max Page at the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education’s August 15 meeting, where the MTA chief accused board members of ‘being obsessed with a test invented some 20 years ago’ that only told them about the wealth of a student’s community, not their capacity for achievement.”

— “New poll shows bipartisan support for 1986 law, voters want their $3 billion back,” by Matthew Medsger, Boston Herald: “According to the [Fiscal Alliance Foundation poll conducted by Republican-aligned firm Advantage Inc.] 63% of Republicans and 65% of Democrats want the state to honor a law passed in 1986 designed to send excess tax takings back to taxpayers.”

— “Sports betting digital field taking shape after 12 companies notify regulators of their intent to apply for licenses,” by Chris Van Buskirk, MassLive: “The Massachusetts Gaming Commission asked companies interested in a sports betting license — regardless of what category they are applying for — to notify the commission of their intent to apply via an online form. As of Thursday afternoon, 12 companies submitted notice of intent forms to the commission ahead of an Aug. 31 deadline.”

— “Edwards cuts an independent path,” by Michael Jonas, CommonWealth Magazine: “[State Sen. Lydia] Edwards, 41, describes herself as ‘a leftist,’ but says that doesn’t mean she’ll take the progressive tack on every issue. ‘It’s a purple district,’ she says of the communities she represents. ‘That means progressive purity be damned.’”

FROM THE HUB

— “Suffolk DA candidate Arroyo could face scrutiny for alleged omissions on bar application,” by Andrew Ryan, Boston Globe: “Allegations that Ricardo Arroyo wasn’t forthright on his bar application could present a challenge for the Suffolk district attorney candidate long after his campaign ends, potentially triggering an investigation by a state body that regulates lawyers. Attorneys found to be dishonest on their bar applications have had their law licenses suspended for five months or more, recent cases show. And legal ethics rules make it clear: Lawyers who lie on their bar application can face discipline.”

— “Kevin Hayden responds to leak charges alleged by Suffolk DA challenger Ricardo Arroyo,” by John Atwater, WCVB: “ Suffolk County District Attorney Kevin Hayden is responding to allegations from Boston City Councilor and district attorney hopeful Ricardo Arroyo, claiming documents that show he was investigated for sexual assault several years ago were leaked. … ‘No, absolutely not,’ Hayden said. ‘We couldn't. It would be illegal for us to do so. We cannot release any case files or any documentations of any kind in connection with any sexual assault whatsoever. We wouldn't do it in any case. And we certainly didn't do in this case.’"

— “Boston City Councilors sit for pre-scheduled discrimination training as Arroyo in the headlines,” by Sean Philip Cotter, Boston Herald: “About half the Boston City Council and many staffers had to sit for the long-scheduled mandated Massachusetts Commission Against Discrimination training on Thursday — including Ricardo Arroyo, who’s been battling for his political life amid old reports of sexual misconduct as he runs for DA.”

YAHD SIGNS AND BUMPAH STICKAHS

— ENDORSEMENT ALERTS: The Boston Globe Editorial Board has endorsed Secretary of State Bill Galvin for an eighth term over Democratic primary challenger Tanisha Sullivan . The editorial board also said Galvin’s next term should be his last — the same thing it said in 2018.

— State Sen. Lydia Edwards has endorsed Methuen City Councilor Eunice Zeigler for First Essex District state senator.

— NEW: EMILY'S List, which backs abortion-rights candidates, has endorsed Sullivan for secretary of state and Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll for lieutenant governor, saying that "electing Democratic pro-choice women has never been more critical."

— Suffolk County Sheriff Steve Tompkins has been endorsed for reelection by former House Speaker Robert DeLeo and House Ways and Means Chair state Rep. Aaron Michlewitz.

— “Massachusetts GOP candidate for governor Geoff Diehl open to multiple debates against Democratic AG Maura Healey,” by Alison Kuznitz, MassLive: “Republican candidate for governor Geoff Diehl said he’s willing to debate Attorney General Maura Healey, the sole remaining Democrat running for the corner office, at least three times in the lead-up to the November general election. That’s despite the Whitman Republican repeatedly snubbing his primary rival’s demand to commit to a slew of televised, moderated debates as Wrentham business owner Chris Doughty jockeys to strengthen his name recognition as a political novice.”

— “In the Mass. secretary of state’s race, razor-sharp contrasts separate Galvin and Sullivan,” by Adam Reilly, GBH News: “It’s not just that the incumbent, Bill Galvin, has served seven terms, while challenger Tanisha Sullivan is meeting the general public as a first-time candidate. The two differ in pretty much every way imaginable — ideologically, stylistically, and demographically, and on the question of how democracy in Massachusetts stacks up to the rest of the country at a fraught moment in history.”

— More: "The times are different. The secretary of state is the same. Can Tanisha Sullivan unseat William Galvin?" by Matt Stout, Boston Globe.

— “Candidates spar at forum,” by Jim Sullivan, Daily News of Newburyport: “Political divisiveness and the definition of a woman were among the hot topics when the four candidates running for state representative in the 1st Essex District shared the stage during a televised candidates' forum Thursday night. … Newburyport residents Byron Lane and Dawne Shand are both running as Democratic write-in candidates to replace (state Rep. Jim) Kelcourse, while Salisbury residents Charles ‘C.J.’ Fitzwater and Samson Racioppi are also running write-in campaigns as Republicans.”

— “In race for Fifth Suffolk rep seat, it's a contest of connections,” by Dorchester Reporter staff.

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BALLOT BATTLES

— “Gov. Charlie Baker says he will vote to repeal the immigrant driver’s license bill he vetoed this spring,” by Alison Kuznitz, MassLive: “Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker said he would vote to repeal the controversial [undocumented] immigrant driver’s license bill that he already vetoed this spring, with Republican grassroots organizers on the brink of succeeding in their signature drive to force the issue among Bay Staters at the polls this November through a ballot referendum.”

PLANES, TRAINS AND AUTOMOBILES

— “MBTA salaries: Who's earning the most at the transit agency this year?” by Jess Aloe, Boston Business Journal: “The state is spending more to pay MBTA workers than any other state agency except the University of Massachusetts. Here's who's earned the most so far this year.”

FROM THE 413

— “Holyoke City Councilor Wilmer Puello-Mota resumes duties amid criminal proceedings in Rhode Island,” by Dennis Hohenberger, Springfield Republican: “Ward 2 City Councilor Wilmer Puello-Mota has returned to his political duties, despite criminal proceedings underway in Rhode Island. He took part in Wednesday’s meeting of the council’s Public Service Committee. Puello-Mota thanked his friends and family for support while jailed in the Rhode Island Adult Correctional Facility.”

THE LOCAL ANGLE

— “Most of state in severe drought, officials say, creating conditions conducive to wildfires,” by Travis Andersen, Boston Globe: “Nearly all of Massachusetts remains under severe or extreme drought, according to the US Drought Monitor’s weekly report on Thursday, as wildfires continued to burn across the state. The report said that 96 percent of the state is now facing severe or extreme conditions, up from 94 percent last week, despite two days of rain earlier in the week.”

— “Amazon to close five delivery warehouses in Massachusetts,” by Anissa Gardizy, Boston Globe: “Amazon plans to close five warehouses in Massachusetts — in Milford, Dedham, Everett, Randolph, and Mansfield — as part of a larger effort to compensate for overgrowth during the COVID-19 pandemic. Caitlin McLaughlin, a spokesperson for Amazon, did not provide a timeline for the closures or indicate how many employees would be affected by the decision. She said workers have the option to transfer to nearby Amazon delivery warehouses that feature ‘upgraded amenities,’ such as on-site parking and better break rooms.”

— “Massport official picked to head New Bedford Port Authority,” by Bruce Mohl, CommonWealth Magazine: “Gordon Carr, the deputy director of real estate strategy and policy at the Massachusetts Port Authority, is going to work next month as the executive director of the New Bedford Port Authority. New Bedford is already one of the nation’s top fishing ports and it is emerging as a hub for offshore wind development.”

MEANWHILE IN RHODE ISLAND

— “McKee calls for Gorbea to take down ad containing National Review article,” by Edward Fitzpatrick, Boston Globe: “Governor Daniel J. McKee’s campaign is demanding that Secretary of State Nellie M. Gorbea’s campaign take down an attack ad because it includes a National Review article written by a local conservative commentator. The Gorbea ad, which began running on television Thursday, blasts McKee for ‘pay to play politics,’ and it marks the first time one of the five Democratic candidates running for governor has run an ad attacking an opponent ahead of the Sept. 13 primary.”

MEANWHILE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

— “Londonderry town councilor, newspaper publisher arrested,” by Breanna Edelstein, Eagle-Tribune: “Debra Paul, a town councilor and publisher of the Londonderry Times, was arrested Wednesday and accused of not complying with state election laws. … Paul is accused of failing to properly identify political advertisements that she published in her newspaper with appropriate language, either at the beginning or the end of the advertisement, as required by law.”

HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH

TRANSITIONS — State House alum and Beacon BLOC co-founder Mark Martinez is joining the Massachusetts Law Reform Institute as a staff attorney in the housing unit.

— Abigail Robbins is now a federal relations specialist at Northeastern University. She was most recently senior associate for governmental affairs at the Association of Public and Land-grant Universities.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to WCVB’s Sharman Sacchetti, Hampshire County Register of Deeds Mary Olberding, Eric Fehrnstrom, Quint Forgey and Francis Morris.

HAPPY BIRTHWEEKEND — to Westford state Rep. Jim Arciero, Sierra LaBonte and Noah Futterman, who celebrate Saturday; and to Sunday birthday-yers Katie Bowler and Meghan Sorensen.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

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