POLITICO NIGHTLY: Are you better off today?

BY RENUKA RAYASAM Presented by With help from Myah Ward FIRST LOOK — Here’s another way to grab the latest Covid data each morning: Johns Hopkins University, with support from Bloomberg Philanthropies, will release daily animations to summarize Covid-19 trends over the last 24 hours and provide a quick topline look at the country’s outbreak. Take a first look at the new resource here. Johns Hopkins University THE COVID CAMPAIGN — Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Most voters say no: Tens of millions of people have lost their jobs, nearly 5 million people have gotten sick from Covid, hundreds of thousands of businesses have shuttered for good, kids have lost months of schooling. So how, then, does an incumbent member of Congress convince this battered electorate that they deserve to stick around? Today, voters headed to the polls in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington — the last mega-primary day of 2020 and a major test of how the pandemic is shaping the campaign. The states feature incumbents facing primaries, senators from both parties gearing up for tough general election fights and one constant: frazzled, dispirited voters. “When you look at the entire electorate,” said Republican strategist Kristin Davison, “they are scared and angry.” Some incumbents are deflecting blame. As Democrats tie Arizona Sen. Martha McSally to Republican Gov. Doug Ducey and the Trump administration’s handling of coronavirus, McSally is pointing the finger at China, saying the country misled the world about the severity of the outbreak. McSally isn’t in danger of losing her primary today, but she is already locked in an expensive general election contest against Democrat Mark Kelly, as Covid case counts and deaths have skyrocketed in Arizona in recent weeks. More than half of her TV ads over the last few months have focused on coronavirus, according to Advertising Analytics, a political ad tracking firm. In Michigan, Democratic Sen. Gary Peters also took a tough tone on China with ads in the spring, tying it into his advocacy for Michigan businesses against Chinese competitors during his career. Focus on what’s next. Both Republican and Democratic strategists say as November nears, more candidates will be talking about rebuilding post-pandemic life. Voters aren’t really looking for someone to blame, said Democratic strategist Jill Alper. Some incumbents who can tout a role in containing the virus, as well as those who voted for congressional relief efforts to address the pandemic’s fallout, will see a boost. “People are looking for a culture of can do leaders who are going to eradicate the virus,” Alper said, “rather than those who have no plan and attack leaders who are stepping up to do something about it.” Missouri Rep. Lacy Clay, a 10-term incumbent whose family has represented the St. Louis-based House seat since the late ’60s, is running on the slogan #StaywithClay as he faces a progressive primary challenge. McSally, Peters and others battleground-state senators are talking up their support, fixes and suggestions for the Paycheck Protection Program and other plans for economic relief amid coronavirus. The pandemic isn’t changing the local dynamics in every race. Our review of Advertising Analytics data showed that Democratic campaigns are more likely to discuss coronavirus in their recent advertising. In competitive open primaries for a House seat in Kansas or a Tennessee Senate seat on Thursday, GOP candidates will stick with President Donald Trump even as opponents attack his handling of the crisis, said Davison. But Rep. Rashida Tlaib’s Democratic primary versus Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones demonstrates how all members of Congress, regardless of party and reputation, feel the pressure to prove things are terrible in spite of their efforts, not because of them. Republicans may have a harder case to make with Trump atop their ticket, but Democrats are also trying to show they are softening the blow of coronavirus. Earlier this year, Tlaib made good on her promise to vote for Trump’s impeachment. These days, she’s turned her attention to making sure that her constituents don’t have their water shut off during the crisis and helping them pay for burial costs. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition. Today WNBA players with the Atlanta Dream and Phoenix Mercury arrived at their game wearing T-shirts supporting Rev. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat challenging Atlanta Dream co-owner Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) for her Senate seat. Reach out rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.   A message from PhRMA: America’s biopharmaceutical companies are sharing manufacturing capabilities with each other so that once a treatment or vaccine is ready, they can get it to millions of people fast. And there’s no slowing down. America’s biopharmaceutical companies will continue working day and night until they beat coronavirus. More.   FIRST IN NIGHTLY KNOCK THE VOTE — Trump’s campaign says it knocked on more than 1 million doors in the past week alone. Joe Biden’s campaign says it knocked on zero. The Republican and Democratic parties — from the presidential candidates on down — are taking polar opposite approaches to door-to-door canvassing this fall, writes reporter Alex Thompson. The competing bets on the value of face-to-face campaigning during a pandemic has no modern precedent, making it a potential wild card in November, especially in close races. Republicans say their door-knocking dominance could make a difference, since in-person conversations have long been considered the most effective type of voter contact. “From now to Election Day, voters may only see one campaign at their doors,” said Elliott Echols, national field director of Trump Victory, the campaign and RNC’s joint field operation. “If this were Barack Obama running, Democrats would want to be out there knocking doors. They don’t have enthusiasm or a strong field operation, so it is a convenient excuse. We can do this safely for President Trump and Republicans up and down the ballot.” Police stand guard as demonstrators protest outside of Chicago's City Hall calling for classes to be held remotely when public school begins in the fall. | Getty Images AROUND THE NATION ‘NO EXPLANATION’ — When Trump directed late Monday that states now pick up some of the tab for the nationwide deployment of the National Guard to respond to the coronavirus, he carved out two big exceptions: Texas and Florida. While all other states and territories will have to shell out millions to cover 25 percent of their National Guard costs, Texas and Florida will be fully covered, prompting accusations of an ulterior motive, health care reporter Alice Miranda Ollstein writes. An estimated 25,000 Guard troops are on duty across the country running testing sites, contact tracing positive virus cases, beefing up overtaxed hospitals, and carrying out a host of other logistical tasks, including delivering supplies. The decision was hailed by officials in Texas and Florida today. But the National Guard Association, which represents tens of thousands of Guard personnel, said it has received “no explanation” for why they are getting special treatment when they are far from the only states relying heavily on the citizen-soldiers to battle high rates of sickness and death and with treasuries that are similarly under enormous financial strain. The two key states, which voted for Trump in 2016 and are hotly contested this year, are struggling to contain coronavirus surges. But other states are worse off by several metrics — including total Covid-19 cases and the percentage of people testing positive. “There are some other states with very high rates and they weren’t included," the advocacy group’s spokesman John Goheen told POLITICO. “We’re shrugging our shoulders."   BECOME A CHINA WATCHER : Tensions between the U.S. and China continue to rise following the shuttering of China's consulate in Houston. Is it possible for the two countries to hit the "reset" button or is that just a pipe dream? Join the conversation and gain expert insight from informed and influential voices in government, business, law, tech and academia. China Watcher is as much of a platform as it is a newsletter. Subscribe today.     PALACE INTRIGUE LIGHTING A FIRE — The White House is considering a trio of executive orders aimed at shaking up coronavirus relief negotiations with Democrats, a sign of frustration within the Trump administration at the sluggish pace of the talks with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. The three actions under consideration would delay the collection of federal payroll taxes, reinstitute an expired eviction moratorium, and in the riskiest gambit of them all, extend enhanced federal unemployment benefits using unspent money already appropriated by Congress, Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan write. This plan is the brainchild of White House chief of staff Mark Meadows. Issuing the orders is aimed at shifting the power dynamics in high-level talks between the two top administration officials on one side, and Pelosi and Schumer on the other. But it may give embattled Senate Republicans a lifeline as they try to save their majority heading into Nov. 3. The White House believes it could tap $81 billion in unspent aid approved by Congress as part of the Cares Act to offer states the ability to take advantage of beefed up unemployment benefits. Administration officials also think the Labor Department can loan state unemployment agencies additional money to boost payments to laid-off workers. Under this scenario, states could offer anywhere from $200 to $600 per week.       FROM THE HEALTH DESK Nightly’s Myah Ward chatted with health care reporter Adam Cancryn about the shortcomings of U.S. Covid-19 data and how to parse through the conflicting numbers. Since the beginning of the pandemic, what has changed about data collection and reporting? In short, a lot. But for context, it’s important to first understand the one thing that hasn’t changed: There’s no central federal database that vacuums up and stores all the country’s health information. So what we’ve seen over the past six months is this piecemeal scramble by the federal government and states to assemble all the indicators from disparate sources that might help us understand and track this virus. Now some data is going to HHS instead of the CDC. Has this caused any problems? It’s certainly created some disruptions, and at this point only time will tell how serious they end up being. One thing HHS has already acknowledged is that the changeover was made too abruptly — and so there are still states and hospitals playing catch up. That appears to be at least part of the reason why Covid-19 data reporting has been more inconsistent of late. And if in a few weeks we end up with a much-improved system for tracking the virus, maybe it’s worth the hassle. The real question in my mind, though, is what exactly the Trump administration does with the information that it’s collecting. How is it informing their response? Do you have any tips about how people should dig through and understand the data for themselves? It’s hard even for us health care reporters, so my first piece of advice is not to be discouraged! But maybe more helpfully, I’d recommend starting with your state health department’s website — nearly all of which have dashboards now that can give you a quick sense of how the virus is spreading and what the risk is in the area that’s going to affect you most directly. And if you want a wider picture, there are some great resources — POLITICO's live tracker, The Atlantic’s Covid Tracking Project and Covid Exit Strategy, to name a few — that make it easy to see how the disease is progressing overall. Where is the U.S. succeeding in data collection and reporting? Where are the holes? We’re doing a pretty good job at giving people a basic sense of how the virus is spreading across the U.S. We know generally how many people are infected, how many have died from Covid-19, whether cases are increasing, are decreasing, etc., down to the state and county levels. That said, the holes are still pretty big — especially when it comes to calculating the toll on communities of color. We don’t know the race or ethnicity of more than half of the nation’s coronavirus patients. Many states group Native American patients into an “other” category or don’t collect that information at all, limiting our ability to target care to a historically underserved population. What are you struggling with as you dig through the data? A lot of our job as reporters digging through this information every day is figuring what it can tell us about the pandemic and our response to it. And that’s not always easy: A sudden daily spike in cases in one state could be the start of an outbreak, or it could simply be a lag in how infections were reported. Was a new cluster because of people crowding into bars and restaurants, for example, or crowding the streets for a protest? Do you think Americans trust the data? Should they? Broadly, I think Americans can trust the data — we just have to understand its limitations. Whether Americans actually do trust the data is a tougher question, and more dependent on how political leaders treat the facts in front of them. When Trump claims the situation is improving and the virus will soon disappear, for example, there’s a percentage of the population that’s going to believe him no matter what any data says. COVID-2020 KEYS TO KEYSTONE — In the latest edition of 2020 Check-In, video reporter Eugene Daniels takes us through the state of play in Pennsylvania, where the Obama-Trump voter holds the keys to victory and an East-West divide defines the political environment. ROCKY IN ROCKY TOP — An orthopedic surgeon with Indian immigrant parents. A former ambassador with ties to Trump and Mitt Romney. Both anti-abortion and pro-gun. Both criticizing the Black Lives Matter movement. Two Republicans vie for who is more conservative as a Tennessee Senate race heats up. In the latest edition of POLITICO Dispatch, Alex Thompson talks about why this race is a reflection on larger shifts in the party. Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast ASK THE AUDIENCE Nightly asks you: What concerns you the most about the November election? Let us know your thoughts, and we’ll include select answers in our Friday edition. NIGHTLY NUMBER 12 The number of days between national security adviser Robert O’Brien’s positive Covid-19 test and his return to work at the White House today. O’Brien is resuming in-person duties, having been cleared by doctors after two negative tests in a row and a week of being asymptomatic. During his self-isolation period, O’Brien worked remotely from his house, which has a secure facility that lets him view classified information. (h/t Daniel Lippman) THE GLOBAL FIGHT A sign directs travelers to a coronavirus testing station at Schoenefeld Airport near Berlin. So far one percent of those tested at the Berlin airports of Tegel and Schoenefeld are showing positive for Covid-19 infection. | Getty Images GESUNDHEITSPROBLEME — Germany’s steadfast approach has made the country a model for combatting the coronavirus, but that success is helping to spread another ill across German society: pandemic denial. A mass demonstration in central Berlin over the weekend that drew an estimated 20,000 protesters underscored the allure of Germany’s burgeoning coronavirus-denial movement, a motley group whose adherents span the political spectrum, chief Europe correspondent Matthew Karnitschnig writes. Saturday’s marchers included everyone from neo-Nazis waving the Reichsflagge (a symbol of the German Empire displayed by many on the extreme right in lieu of the banned swastika) to dreadlocked peace protesters and LGBTQ activists carrying rainbow banners. Hardly any of the protesters, who accuse the government and press of lying about the pandemic, wore masks or followed social distancing rules, prompting authorities to put an early end to the demonstration. The potency and political breadth of Saturday’s demonstration (dubbed “The end of the pandemic — day of freedom," by its organizers) rattled political leaders. “The scenes we were forced to witness are unacceptable,” a spokeswoman for Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday, adding that the demonstrators had misused Germany’s constitutional right to protest and flouted public health warnings. “The irresponsibility of a small few poses a risk for us all,” President Frank-Walter Steinmeier warned in a video statement. Though Germany, a country of more than 80 million, has fared well during the pandemic compared to most large countries (some 9,200 people have died of Covid-19), authorities are bracing for a second wave and, as elsewhere in Europe, are already seeing signs of a resurgence.   POLITICO'S "FUTURE PULSE" - THE COLLISION OF HEALTH CARE AND TECHNOLOGY : As the United States remains stuck in a screening crisis, a worldwide competition has been launched to find the top Covid-19 rapid testing solutions. The contest aims to find a system with a painless sample and quick turnaround for results. When will a breakthrough come? From Congress and the White House, to state legislatures and Silicon Valley, Future Pulse spotlights the politics, policies and technologies driving long-term change on the most personal issue for voters: Their health. SUBSCRIBE NOW.     PARTING WORDS FLOATING THE IDEA OF MASKS — In a new public service announcement, a hot dog softly sways from the top of the frame to the bottom with the help of a mask-shaped parachute. The sounds of bat hitting a baseball and a stadium organ play in the background. The point: Wearing a mask can hasten the return of the things we love the most, said Tom Ortega, principal and chief creative officer at RIESTER Public Affairs. The company designed the series of “Let’s Land Safely” PSAs at the request of Arizona Republican Gov. Doug Ducey’s office, who unveiled them in his weekly news conference last week. Ducey has resisted a statewide mask mandate even as Covid case counts have skyrocketed in Arizona. But the series of ads , which also feature a parachute-wearing guitar and art piece, were more of a soft diplomacy ploy to encourage people to wear masks. Ortega said that his team showed Ducey’s staff multiple campaigns, and they pretty quickly picked the parachuting hot dog as a way to gently win over mask skeptics. “Wearing a mask is a little divisive,” said Ortega. “If people can remember the parachute when they wear a mask and think about the state landing safely, then we give them a sense of purpose.”   A message from PhRMA: America’s biopharmaceutical companies are sharing their knowledge and resources more than ever before to speed up the development of new medicines to fight COVID-19. They’re working with doctors and hospitals on over 1,100 clinical trials. And there’s no slowing down. America’s biopharmaceutical companies will continue working day and night until they beat coronavirus. Because science is how we get back to normal. See how biopharmaceutical companies are working together to get people what they need during this pandemic.   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam   FOLLOW US

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