POLITICO NIGHTLY: A Covid side effect: Slower politics

BY STEPHANIE MURRAY AND RENUKA RAYASAM

Presented by Facebook

With help from Myah Ward

THE WAITING IS THE HARDEST PART — Of all the surprises coronavirus has delivered this year, one of the strangest is slower politics. It’s Election Day, and we’re unlikely to know the outcomes in two of the biggest races tonight: blockbuster Democratic primaries in New York and Kentucky. Will longtime Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel hold onto the seat he's held since 1988, or will educator Jamaal Bowman come out on top? Can state lawmaker Charles Booker seize on progressive momentum to beat well-funded fighter pilot Amy McGrath for a chance to take on Mitch McConnell in November?

It's possible we may not know the answer for a week. Officials in Kentucky and New York are prepared to spend days counting mail-in ballots, and if the primary races are close, it could take just as long to know the results.

Before the pandemic, political campaigns would end Primary Day with a packed event for supporters, hoping to deliver a victory speech at the end of the night. The victory parties are already canceled, and now even knowing who won on Election Night may be a thing of the past.

All of this flows from the growing popularity of voting by mail, because voting in person is a way to spread the virus. Many states have cut the number of polling places during the pandemic, which can result in hours-long lines to vote — and increased risk of infection.

More than a quarter of registered voters in Kentucky requested an absentee ballot or voted before Primary Day. New York sent out 1.8 million absentee ballots, according to the Board of Elections, a rate much higher than in 2016. And a significant portion of those mail-in ballots won’t even reach elections officials until tomorrow.

If you live in Washington, Oregon and a handful of other states, voting by mail, and waiting a while for results, isn't new. But most of the country expects to know who won an election on the same day votes are cast, excluding races with razor-thin margins. Waiting days for the election outcome seems almost un-American.

Today is something of a test run for how states will handle the presidential election, and there's already growing concern that we won't know who the president is on Election Day in November.

That would be a serious disruption to the political process in November, and could easily spur conspiracy theories and unrest in our political environment. President Donald Trump is already raising questions about voting by mail, which he sees as a threat to his reelection. People may be more likely to question the process if results come in late, or even suspect something sinister is going on.

America isn’t very good at delayed gratification. But maybe an exercise in patience for voters and politicians is a good thing, if higher voter turnout is the tradeoff for a day, or even a week, of uncertainty.

From 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET, POLITICO reporters and editors will provide analysis of the results so far in a primary night live chat hosted by senior politics editor Charlie Mahtesian.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition. I need to get this “No Mask, No Mames” print from Austin’s Suerte on a T-shirt for my El Paso-raised husband. Reach out with tips: rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.

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FIRST IN NIGHTLY

SUN BELT SPLIT — U.S. coronavirus cases are surging sharply, thanks to outbreaks spreading across the country's south and west . Now even some of Trump’s key allies in affected states are breaking with the White House on the state of the pandemic and how best to respond, national political reporter Nolan McCaskill writes. In advance of Trump’s visit to his state today, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey tweeted a graphic illustrating CDC guidance on applying face coverings with the hashtag “MaskUpAZ.”

JOIN TOMORROW 1 p.m. EDT - THE SPEED OF SCIENCE POST-COVID-19: What does the future of science in a post-Covid-19 world look like? What lessons can we learn to accelerate medical research outside of the coronavirus? How can newly developed drugs and vaccines be distributed equitably? What can we do to minimize misinformation from flawed or inaccurate scientific studies published during a public health emergency? Join Patrick Steel, CEO of POLITICO, and Alexander Hardy, CEO of Genentech, for this critical and timely discussion. REGISTER HERE.

TALKING TO THE EXPERTS

Matt Wuerker

Nightly’s Myah Ward asked: How do you define a wave in a pandemic? Are we in the first wave, or the second, of this one?

“The term ‘wave’ is best applied through the lens of history. As we look back to study the patterns of disease transmission during a pandemic, you can fairly assess when a wave struck a population.

“If you plot disease over time on a graph, it will in fact look like a wave. But to think of a wave, or second wave, hitting the United States is to look past the altogether different realities in each state, city, neighborhood and even each household. If you relax control efforts, for instance, disease will spread again — as we’re seeing now in many states — and if you tighten back up, it will decline. This is the normal course of events the first time a disease passes through a population.

“Many infectious diseases do manifest with some degree of seasonality. The flu, for instance, predictably visits in winter and generally recedes in spring. With coronavirus, I would think of a second wave as a recurrence after a period of widespread decline. If coronavirus becomes less active this summer — something I wouldn’t count on — I would expect it would rebound this winter when respiratory viruses tend to spread more easily. Then, you would have what might reasonably be called a wave.

“Whether we call it a wave or something else, we have to assume it’s coming our way until we have better treatments to save lives and a vaccine to relegate the novel coronavirus to its place in history.” — Richard Besser, acting CDC director in 2009 and CEO of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the United States’ largest public health philanthropy

AROUND THE NATION

RED HOT SPOTS — For the first time since the pandemic started, counties that vote Republican are seeing more new Covid cases than are counties that lean Democratic, according to analysis from Jed Kolko , chief economist at job search website Indeed. Early scenes of the U.S. outbreak were from New York: overflowing hospitals and makeshift morgues with elderly most at risk. But now, three days into the official start of summer, new virus cases are growing in places that are warmer, less urban and younger. Even taking into account the increase in testing, the virus is growing quickly in suburbs and in smaller towns.

There’s less of a clear pattern now than in April and May, when cases were largely clustered around New York, Kolko said. New June cases are a bit more random and can no longer be explained by a single factor like an outbreak in a meatpacking facility or urban density. As social distancing rules relax in general and mask wearing becomes more haphazard, new case clusters are popping up throughout the country — tied to things as disparate as bar hopping in Baton Rouge or churchgoing in West Virginia.

We’re still learning about the virus and why warmer places are now seeing more cases: Is it because in hot places people are now staying indoors in air conditioning while those in cooler places are out and about, enjoying their more temperate summers? Or is it because these are places with fewer Covid restrictions and less mask wearing?

We also still don’t know whether the virus will be as fatal in the rest of the country as it was in New York City. So far younger people have better survival rates than those who are older and doctors are also getting better at treating Covid, lowering death rates. It will be another few weeks, at least, before death data from these new outbreaks provides a clearer answer.

 

FROM THE HEALTH DESK

HOUSTON ROCKETS — Houston’s Harris County has about one-fifth the Covid cases per capita as New York City, but public health experts and officials are warning that the city could soon become the worst affected area in the country. The rate of positive cases in the greater Houston area has tripled since the start of June. Even with the biggest medical complex in the world, Houston could exceed its hospital capacity within days, according to the Texas Medical Center.

“The challenge is that we have entered this new phase based on layered reopening and milestone events,” said Umair Shah, executive director of Harris County Public Health. People started gathering for big events just as Texas lifted stay at home restrictions. Mother’s Day, Memorial Day, graduations and protests over George Floyd’s death are all contributing to rising case counts, Shah said. He’s worried that gatherings over the July 4 weekend could lead to an even bigger spike.

Shah said the county, the third-largest in the country, has some breathing room when it comes to hospital capacity. Already Texas Children’s Hospital is accepting adult patients to free up beds around the county. But he thinks the Houston area is at an inflection point. Harris County’s top official, Lina Hidalgo, issued a new mask order . Shah said that the county has put in mobile testing sites in areas they call “testing deserts” and has hired 300 contact tracers with an eye towards the area’s diversity: 43.3 percent of county residents are Hispanic, 19.9 percent are Black and 7.4 percent are Asian, according to 2019 Census data.

The trajectory of the virus in Houston now depends on whether people adhere to mask orders and minimize contacts, Shah said. Abbott has taken over the state’s Covid response, leaving local leaders little flexibility to reimpose stay at home orders or other restrictions. “It’s going to take a while to turn,” said Shah. “If we don’t, we are going to have some real issues and concerns.”

Mental health’s multifront war — Demand for mental health and addiction services has surged during the pandemic. But providers are strapped for cash and say they aren’t getting the help they need. Health care reporter Rachel Roubein explains the two-fold crisis — and why providers shouldn’t count on a quick fix from Congress — in the latest POLITICO Dispatch.

Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast

COVID-2020

KAMALA VS. THE FIELD — There’s one decision nearly everyone is waiting on Joe Biden to make. Video reporter Eugene Daniels talks with national political reporter Christopher Cadelago about the woman to beat in Biden’s veepstakes, Sen. Kamala Harris.

ASK THE AUDIENCE

Nightly asks you: If you were going to erect a statue in the place where you live, who or what would you choose? And why? Send us your thoughts through our form, and we’ll feature answers in our Friday edition.

JOIN TOMORROW AT 4:45 p.m. EDT/1:45 p.m. PDT – CALIFORNIA PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW WITH SAN FRANCISCO MAYOR LONDON BREED: California is gradually re-opening as retail stores, restaurants and churches join other entities in welcoming eager patrons. Join California Playbook authors Carla Marinucci and Jeremy White for a virtual interview with San Francisco Mayor London Breed to discuss the city’s economic comeback, proposals for police reform and funding reallocation. REGISTER HERE.

NIGHTLY NUMBER

1.3 million The total number of local government jobs lost in the U.S. since March, according to a National Association of Counties analysis . Local governments lost an additional 487,000 jobs in May, compounding the 798,000 jobs lost in April.

THE GLOBAL FIGHT

GERMANY FEARS SECOND WAVE — A regional lockdown announced today affecting more than 500,000 locals near Germany’s industrial heartland offers a laboratory for how Europe can manage new outbreaks of Covid-19, Joshua Posaner, Ashleigh Furlong and Carlo Martuscelli write. Ground zero is a slaughterhouse in Gütersloh owned by Tönnies, a meat-processing company. Of around 7,000 workers at the facility, more than 1,500 have tested positive in recent days. So far, local transmission into the general population has been limited, local authorities insisted on today — the same day the lockdown was announced, followed by an extension of the measures to the neighboring district of Warendorf. “At the moment it's a local outbreak,” said Ralf Reintjes, professor of epidemiology and surveillance at the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences. But if the approach fails in Gütersloh and in other towns such as Göttingen, where a tower block is in quarantine, he warned, Germany will “probably have a second wave.”

Europe makes moves — The EU’s powerful antitrust and Covid-19 bailout enforcer today signaled the bloc is willing to play much tougher with both the U.S. and China, starting with tech companies. Margrethe Vestager, the European Commission’s executive vice president, told POLITICO’s Ryan Heath that the EU will tax digital companies where digital transactions take place, despite Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin walking away from global talks on the topic. Vestager has already clawed back more than $14 billion in unpaid taxes from Apple, and fined Google on multiple occasions, including a whopping $4.9 billion in 2018.

Vestager is playing hardball with Europe’s own companies, too. Those who take Covid-19 related bailout money face conditions including a “ban of bonuses for senior management, acquisition bans, dividend bans,” she said, and sunset clauses. EU officials are also planning to crack down against Chinese authorities blocking foreign companies from bidding for Chinese government projects.

The Danish official isn’t the only European making bold moves: The EU is considering keeping American travelers on a list of banned visitors after July 1 — alongside Brazilians — because of the poor U.S. Covid-19 response. Visitors from many other countries will be allowed back into Europe as the continent reopens.

PARTING WORDS

SUDDEN DEATH — Nightly’s Tyler Weyant writes:

Wednesday, March 11 was POLITICO Nightly’s third day in existence, but in many ways it was also the first day of the pandemic, the moment everyone realized that coronavirus was going to seep into every corner of our lives. One of that day’s thunderclaps: A basketball game that was called off based on a positive test by Rudy Gobert of the Utah Jazz. It led to the suspension of the entire NBA season.

The days since have seen athlete after athlete and league after league struggle with Covid. Just in the past seven days: All Major League Baseball spring camps temporarily closed after positive tests. The NBA is continuing prep for their Disney World “bubble” amid concerns over Florida’s spiking numbers. Colleges and whole conferences closing facilities and restricting travel because of virus concerns. And today, Novak Djokovic, the world’s No. 1 men’s tennis player, announced he had tested positive after a Croatian exhibition event light on precautionary measures and heavy on criticism.

Sports leagues and franchises carry a weight most ordinary businesses don’t; they weave themselves into the fabric of a city. People in St. Louis see themselves through the Cardinals, or even as the Cardinals. What is Green Bay without fall Sunday Packers games? Add in the empty, frequently taxpayer-funded stadiums in the middle of many American cities, and we are left with a gaping hole in the civic life of regions across the country.

But as much as we want sports back, as much as we yearn for whatever “normal” could mean in the coming months, the risks sure look like they outweigh the rewards. Already, we have seen signs that sports, both indoor and outdoor, could serve as a perfect environment for the spread of Covid-19: people packed in, screaming, moving about and not very focused on how they’re affecting the thousands around them.

Fans may have to embrace an unfortunate reality: The stands might be a lot emptier than we’re used to for a while. Those in charge can make all the contingencies they want, but as experts constantly tell us, the virus is in charge, not us.

Sports were one of the first things coronavirus took from us. They may be one of the last things to come back, at least in the way we’re used to. And, if we want to get back to shouting at the refs or celebrating an incredible play, we’re just going to have to live with it.

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Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam

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