POLITICO NIGHTLY: The U.S.-China relationship was sick before Covid

By David Wertime and Renuka Rayasam Presented by FROM TRADE WAR TO COVID WAR — Is the U.S.-China relationship on the brink of becoming another Covid victim? Bilateral ties are in a miserable state. Just this week, Mike Pompeo decertified Hong Kong as an autonomous city, and the U.S. is reportedly planning to expel thousands of Chinese graduate STEM students. President Donald Trump said today he’ll hold a press conference Friday on China and Hong Kong, which could stoke tensions further. Covid hit the relationship at a bad time. Because of the challenge it’s posed to the U.S. economy in an election year and its origin in China, the virus has fused domestic economic and foreign politics, which usually inhabit very different places on voters’ priority lists, elevating China as a foil. It also means U.S. and Chinese diplomats have almost no chance to talk face-to-face, leaving more time to focus on Chinese diplomats’ mystifying Twitter trolling, which now runs thick with Covid conspiracy theories. Young Chinese people still find America and its brand(s) — from Pizza Hut to Hollywood to Harvard — attractive. There is plenty of feel-good, trans-Pacific cooperation on Covid at the individual and institutional levels. But cross-cultural good will is hard to sustain when the political environment heats up and travel shuts down. Like a geopolitical Murder on the Orient Express , the true perpetrators are everywhere. Even dovish experts have long acknowledged the two political systems are ideologically misaligned, with incompatible visions for what good governance looks like. And the U.S. government has been preparing some of its stringent measures for years. Even Steve Bannon will tell you Obama saw the writing on the wall and authored the “pivot to Asia.” The Department of Justice indicted Chinese hackers back in 2014. Beijing believes that U.S. actions spring from its fundamental desire to contain China — that Covid, in other words, is a cover. While that’s an oversimplification, the underlying bilateral tensions do trace back much further, and deeper, than a Wuhan wet market. Don’t expect relations to recover soon, whatever happens on Election Day. Sign up for China Watcher, David’s new POLITICO newsletter on the U.S.-China relationship. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition. Am I the only person who thinks the last thing the world needs right now is another account judging people’s video setups and bookshelves? Make it stop. Reach out with tips: rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam. A message from Humana: At Humana, we’re committed to helping our members – many of whom are at high-risk for coronavirus – stay healthy and safe by connecting them to the resources they need. Learn More   A restorer cleans Michelangelo's statue of David while preparing for the reopening of Florence’s Galleria dell'Accademia, which was closed for almost three months. First In Nightly MEDICAID EXPANSION GETS SICK — The pandemic has derailed Democrats’ efforts in statehouses across the country to give more Americans government-backed health coverage, health care reporter Dan Goldberg writes. A once-unlikely deal in Kansas to expand Medicaid to about 150,000 poor people is on hold. In California, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom abandoned plans to extend coverage to 27,000 undocumented immigrant seniors after the pandemic blew a $54 billion hole in the state budget. And in Colorado, the pandemic stalled a debate over a public option to compete with private insurers. Washington state scaled back the launch of its pioneering public option this fall, given that hospitals and health insurers are consumed by the coronavirus response. Colorado was geared up for a fierce battle over the public option this year, offering a preview of how a similar national effort would play out. Democratic Gov. Jared Polis, who campaigned on the idea two years ago, had made an all-out push for the legislation, condemning hospitals opposing it as greedy. Hospitals and insurers had fought back hard, attacking the bill months even before it was formally introduced. The state’s public option legislation passed out of committee in March, before coronavirus shut down the legislature. Other Democratic-run states like Connecticut and New Jersey that planned to explore the idea this year didn't make much progress. The Colorado bill’s prospects next year will depend on Democrats holding their narrow two-seat majority in the state Senate — and whether the public sentiment is strongly in hospitals’ favor after the pandemic.   LISTEN UP! Congress is nowhere close to a coronavirus deal. More Americans are applying for unemployment benefits. States across the nation are opening up but trying to avoid a 2nd wave. POLITICO Dispatch is a short, daily podcast that provides critical news and context you need, in 15 minutes or less. Subscribe and listen today.     From the Interactives Desk WEIGHING THE RISKS — Over Memorial Day weekend, POLITICO and Morning Consult asked nearly 2,000 Americans to rate the relative risk of a dozen common activities from 1 to 10. Then, we asked a panel of 18 public health experts to give their professional opinion. The survey provides a snapshot of where Americans see the most danger — and where they’re most out of sync with experts, write editor of interactive news Andrew McGill and graphics reporter Beatrice Jin. POLITICO found a few patterns: Ordinary Americans are more likely to view activities as risky than experts are. In eight of 11 scenarios, poll respondents gave a higher risk rating than the expert panel. There’s a big gap between Democrats and Republicans. On average, Republican respondents rated activities’ risk more than a point lower than Democrats. We saw a similar pattern between men and women, with men finding most activities less risky. Some questions had a wide range of responses, even among experts. Some scenarios were cut-and-dried — nearly everyone agrees it’s quite risky to go to a baseball game in a stadium, for instance. Answer the questions yourself, and see how your answers compare to the average American’s, and to the experts. From the Health Desk THE KIDS AREN’T ALRIGHT — A mysterious ailment linked to Covid that affects kids was first spotted in New York, but now it is being reported in the rest of the country. Texas Children’s Hospital in Houston reported today that several patients have the syndrome linked to Covid. Louisiana on Wednesday reported that a child had died as a result of it. Earlier in the week Pennsylvania reported 17 kids may also have it. The diagnosis, which has yet to show up in adults, is so rare that the CDC only recently settled on a name for the illness: Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children or MIS-C for short. At first doctors thought it might be Kawasaki disease, an inflammatory illness that affects young kids and leads to heart disease. But it’s not. Nor is it Covid-19. The syndrome is linked to coronavirus — kids might get it weeks after they were exposed to the virus or had a mild Covid case — but it’s a separate illness that causes symptoms like rashes, conjunctivitis and stomach problems. Unlike Covid, which primarily affects the lungs, the syndrome primarily affects a kid’s heart. And unlike Covid, which has been more severe in children with underlying health conditions, it’s been attacking even healthy kids. It’s a sign kids might not be spared from the virus after all, complicating efforts to restart summer camps and reopen schools in the fall. And if the syndrome proves to be a more widespread immune response to Covid than these initial reports indicate, it could even hinder efforts to find a vaccine that’s safe for kids. So far more than 250 cases have been reported around the country. More than 20 states are reporting MIS-C cases, with most in New York. The CDC is asking local health authorities and providers to report cases so they can improve data collection. Physicians have been blindsided by kids showing up in hospitals with rashes and pinkeye and dangerously low blood pressure. While MIS-C has been more rare than Covid in kids, it’s also been more severe. “At the beginning we were pleasantly surprised that Covid has been less severe in kids,” said Charles Berul, co-director of the Children’s National Heart Institute in Washington, D.C. But just in the last two weeks Berul has said that his hospital has treated about 30 children with the syndrome. Some had active Covid infections, while others tested positive for Covid antibodies. So far Berul said that most kids have recovered with treatment, which could include high doses of aspirin and immunoglobulin to suppress the inflammation. “This seems like all of sudden,” said Berul. “It’s rare, but just 30 in two weeks could be a lot of children in the end.” Four Square THE ZOOM PANEL — POLITICO’s new panel show, hosted by Eugene Daniels and featuring Tim Alberta, Ryan Lizza and Laura Barrón-López, premiered today with a conversation about how the pandemic maps — and exacerbates — America’s partisan divide. Around the Nation SELECTIVE HEARING — In the latest POLITICO Dispatch, your host and Dan Diamond break down how U.S. cities are reopening — and what that means for the country as it tries to emerge from the pandemic. “From some of the states like Texas, which has lifted restrictions and not seen a massive spike in new cases, that gives virologists hope that people are practicing behaviors on their own that are helping slow the virus spread,” Dan said. Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast     Nightly Number 400,000 The number of New York City residents who could head back to work when the city begins the first phase of its reopening in June, according to Mayor Bill de Blasio. The mayor laid out guidelines Thursday for the first phase of businesses that will be allowed to open their doors in the coming weeks. He estimated that 200,000 to 400,000 more people would report to work in person when the restart begins. (h/t Erin Durkin) Ask The Audience Our question for readers this week: What does your face mask or covering look like? Snap a photo of it sometime this week (no faces, please) and send it to nightly@politico.com. We’ll share our favorites on Friday.   WINNERS PLAY THE LONG GAME: If there is one thread linking the greatest challenges facing our society, economy and planet, it’s the tension between short-term and long-term thinking. “The Long Game," presented by Morgan Stanley, is designed for executives, investors and policymakers who are leading the conversation about how our society can thrive in the future. Engage with the sharpest minds on our biggest challenges, from pandemics to plastics, climate change to land use, inequality and the future of work. Searching for a nuanced look at these issues and possible solutions? Subscribe today.     The Global Fight PARTY OUT THE USA — The European Commission doesn’t need Donald Trump. It has Miley Cyrus. European health care reporter Jillian Deutsch and chief Brussels correspondent David M. Herszenhorn write that the U.S. president hasn't joined the EU's global fundraising drive to fight the coronavirus pandemic, but Cyrus, Hugh Jackman, Chris Rock, Justin Bieber and Shakira, Bill Gates, Mike Bloomberg and others are on board to “help rally citizens to the cause” — the EU-led push to raise money for tests, therapies and vaccines. Much of today's announcement emphasized the anticipated coronavirus vaccine — there are 100 projects in development. Gates said via video that a working vaccine could be ready by January 2021. “That would make it the fastest vaccine ever created in human history,” Gates said. “But we also have to ask: What good is this vaccine if we can't get it to all the people in the world?” Parting Words FEVER PITCH — As American sports sputter back to life, the most-watched sports league in the world announced its return: English Premier League soccer resumes next month. Beginning on June 17 with Manchester City vs. Arsenal and Aston Villa vs. Sheffield United, the season will be wrapped up in six weeks. The schedule and return date were discussed at a meeting of the 20 clubs Thursday, and the BBC reported that all of the clubs agreed to the plan in principle. The games will be played with no spectators, and according to the London Times some games could be played at neutral venues to keep fans from congregating outside their home stadium. The season was cut short March 13. Premier League players and staff will be tested twice a week, with anyone found positive required to self-isolate for seven days. Elite-level soccer already has returned in Germany, where matches have been played minus fans since mid-May. Spanish football plans a return in early June. France ended the season with games outstanding in April, and Paris Saint-Germain was declared the champion. A message from Humana: At Humana, we’re experts at helping our members achieve better health and recognize our unique role in supporting them during this unprecedented time. That’s why we're: 1) Waiving all member medical costs for coronavirus testing and treatment 2) Waiving copays for primary care and outpatient behavioral health visits, including telehealth, for Medicare Advantage members through 2020 3) Proactively mailing members safety kits with masks and encouraging the use of mail order pharmacies to help people access the resources they need from the safety of their homes. Humana is committed to doing all that we can to protect our members’ health during the coronavirus. Learn More   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam

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