POLITICO NIGHTLY: Pelosi’s pandemic strategy

By Heather Caygle and Renuka Rayasam Presented by The Mortgage Bankers Association BIG TIME — Speaker Nancy Pelosi released a massive, 1,800-page coronavirus relief bill today that’s destined to go nowhere in the Senate and is even meeting resistance from some Democrats. Here’s what she’s thinking: Pelosi is banking on Congress having to pass at least one more massive aid package this summer, and she wants to anchor the Democrats’ starting point for it now. Because Pelosi knows this bill will be swiftly dismissed by the Republican-controlled Senate, she went as big as she wanted, putting in roughly $3 trillion worth of Democratic priorities. The centerpiece is $900 billion in funding for state and local governments. Pelosi’s strategy is two-fold: Democrats can paint a stark contrast with Republicans, pointing to this bill as “proof” they’re fighting for the American people while they say the GOP refuses to negotiate; and Pelosi is also trying to ease internal caucus tensions by including proposals from liberal Democrats upset that their ideas were left out of the last four relief packages. But Pelosi’s plan isn’t without potential pitfalls: Some of the most vulnerable — meaning, the most moderate — House Democrats are already bracing for Republican attacks linking them to some of the bill’s most controversial proposals, like easing some immigration detention policies and providing loans for cannabis businesses. And Pelosi has already angered some of the House’s most prominent liberals, including Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington, by leaving their marquee proposals out of the otherwise sprawling bill. Jayapal wants the federal government to subsidize payrolls to keep people employed. What’s next? Pelosi is determined to bring the House back Friday for a vote on the behemoth bill, despite some senior liberal lawmakers asking her to delay so they can have more time to negotiate. Democrats are also expected to force through a rules change over Republican objections that will allow committees to meet remotely and members to vote via proxy on bills related to the coronavirus. The rules change is likely to ease some Democrats’ anxiety, who worried they were hurting themselves ahead of the November election because voters haven’t seen them working while they’ve been away from Washington. In her own words: “We must think big for the people now because if we don’t it will cost more in lives and livelihood later,” Pelosi said in a speech from a podium in her speaker’s suite this afternoon. “Not acting is the most expensive course.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition. I’m afraid stories like this gut-wrenching account of getting fired over Zoom are only going to become more common. Reach out with tips: rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.   A message from The Mortgage Bankers Association: Individual Needs. Individual Solutions. We understand that mortgage relief is not one-size-fits-all. The COVID-19 pandemic has left many Americans in unique financial situations. That’s why we encourage you to contact your mortgage company if paying your mortgage poses a financial hardship. There are options to help meet your needs. MBA.org/consumerinfo   First In Nightly POLITICO Illustration/AP ‘CONSPIRACY BINGO’ — One segment of the internet is experiencing a pandemic boom: conspiracy theorists and far-right extremists. People from white supremacists and anti-vaxxers in the U.S. to fascist and anti-refugee groups across Europe are seizing on the crisis, according to a POLITICO review of thousands social media posts and interviews with misinformation experts tracking their online activities. Far-right extremists have become particularly vocal at a time of deepening public uncertainty and economic trauma, write Mark Scott and Steven Overly . They piggyback on social media to promote virus-related themes drawn from multiple sources — among them, Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns, the Trump administration’s musings about the virus’ origins and anti-Muslim themes from India’s nationalist ruling party. “Honestly, it’s a dream come true for any and every hate group, snake oil salesman and everything in between,” said Tijana Cvjetićanin, a fact-checker in the Balkans who has watched ultranationalist groups promoting hate-filled messages on social media about Covid-19, often against Jewish communities. Another online researcher put it more succinctly: “It’s like hitting conspiracy bingo.”   JOIN THURSDAY - WHY IS THE INCARCERATION RATE OF WOMEN RISING? Women are the fastest-growing segment of the incarcerated population in the United States, increasing at a rate nearly double that of men over the past 35 years. Join Women Rule Editorial Director Anna Palmer on Thursday at 3 p.m. EDT for a virtual conversation with April Grayson, campaign surrogate and statewide coordinator for the Young Women's Freedom Center; Scott Budnick, founder of the Anti-Recidivism Coalition (ARC); and Emily Ratajkowski, model, actress and activist. Learn about the challenges women face behind bars and how they fit into the criminal-justice reform movement. Have questions? Submit yours by tweeting it to @POLITICOLive using #AskPOLITICO. REGISTER HERE.     Palace Intrigue MASKED MEN — According to a new survey, even most Republicans think President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence should sport face coverings when traveling in public, breaking news reporter Quint Forgey writes. More than 70 percent of respondents in a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll to be published Wednesday say that when Trump and Pence travel, they should wear face masks in public places. Concurring with that position are 82 percent of Democrats, 70 percent of independents and 58 percent of Republicans. Only 12 percent say the president and vice president should not wear face masks in public places, and 17 percent say they do not know or have no opinion. The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted May 8-10, surveying a national sample of 1,994 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. FAUCI IN 102 SECONDS — Watch Anthony Fauci, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Adm. Brett Giroir and Sen. Rand Paul talk about how best to contain Covid-19 at a Senate committee hearing today.     Talking to the Experts Which parts of the U.S. are likely to be the next Covid hotspots? “Every place in the country is going to get cases. What determines whether someplace has a manageable number of cases isn’t some magic formula. I do think that population-dense cities are going to be the ones that are on the list of the next hotspots. The other thing that can make something a hotspot is reliance on public transportation or common areas where people congregate. That could be small towns that have a large prison population or a meat processing plant. The waves of illness that we've had in most of the cities, even including New York City, have not been big enough to get anywhere near herd immunity. So there’s still a significant proportion of the population that is susceptible. The fact that some place was hit hard in the spring doesn't necessarily mean that they won't be hit hard again.” — Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security “Our approach to modeling hot spots is we’re looking at the intensity of Covid at the county level across the country and trying to adjust for population. This also highlights areas that may have fewer total number of cases, but also fewer hospital beds and fewer ventilators. The new hotspots are not necessarily the most population-dense places. Places that had no cases just a few weeks ago are now emerging. For example, hotspots in northern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico. This is Navajo Nation. There’s a lot less infrastructure. We also have this patchwork of policies across the country. That's why we're seeing a lot of cases emerge along borders of states. Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, Minnesota — there are a lot of cases in between where those boundaries meet, likely because people are taking advantage of different policies. Same thing with northern Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.” — Marynia Kolak, assistant director of health informatics at the Center for Spatial Data Science at the University of Chicago “Something that concerns me is places that don't have sufficient medical resources to contend with another surge of patients. I’m talking about places like New York, but I am very concerned about ring counties that surround major counties. Maybe they are not as dense, but they have a decent chance of having a reoccurrence, and they have fewer medical resources. I’m looking at areas around Indianapolis, Des Moines, the Twin Cities — these look like places that might be exceeding their medical capacity.” — Charles Branas, chair of the Department of Epidemiology at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health The Global Fight YEAR OF THE HAWK — As global trade plummets and questions about China’s coronavirus handling mount, Republican trade and China hawks are losing their inhibitions, POLITICO’s Global Translations author Ryan Heath emails. But their enthusiasm for “reshoring” manufacturing could leave Trump politically exposed. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is among those urging immediate boycotts of Chinese goods, while U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer today described offshoring to China as “a craze” egged on by Wall Street that’s responsible for the loss of “at least 2 million American jobs.” Scott’s political message sounds potent — “they intentionally steal our jobs” and “if you want to help Americans, stop buying their products” — but it won’t be easy to cut off China. Many companies have sought to diversify their supply chains away from China, during three years of Trump trade wars. But instead of production and jobs moving back to the U.S. and Mexico, robots were the big winners. Under the vision of the GOP’s China hawks, Europe, Australia and other allies will quickly follow America’s lead in standing up to China. So far, U.S. allies have not seen it that way. The bottom line is they value the global trading system more than they value their U.S. trading relationship: America’s allies want to criticize China without isolating it. The U.S. government denied quorum to the World Trade Organization’s top appeals court (casting the WTO as yet another global body working against America’s interests), so last month allies including Canada, Australia, Brazil and the EU’s 27 members worked with China to launch an interim alternative court. America’s China trade hawks may shout, but without an effective international coalition, their attempts to isolate China can only go so far. PUNCHLINES In the latest edition of Punchlines, Matt Wuerker teaches you how to develop your own drawing style by sketching faces and people, and explores the keys to drawing one of Washington’s most recognizable figures: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Ask The Audience Our question for readers this week: What does reopening look like where you live? Snap a photo sometime this week and send it to nightly@politico.com. We’ll share our favorites on Friday.   JOIN FRIDAY - HOW DOES THE GLOBAL ECONOMY START MOVING AGAIN? The pandemic has caused the global economy to come to a halt, triggering economic crises around the world. What happens next? Join Global Translations author Ryan Heath on Friday at 1 p.m. EDT for a virtual discussion with Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on the trade-offs and investments needed to get the global economy moving again, the role that China can be expected to play, and how growing debt and deficits will impact the developing world. Have questions? Submit yours by tweeting it to @POLITICOLive using #AskPOLITICO. REGISTER HERE TO PARTICIPATE.     Nightly Number 50 million The number of people the U.S. will be able to test per month for coronavirus by September, according to HHS testing czar Brett Giroir at a Senate hearing today. That would be roughly four times the 12.9-million test goal the administration set for May and announced Monday at a Rose Garden briefing. Volunteers donate blood during an American Red Cross blood drive at the Field Museum of Natural History in Chicago. | Scott Olson/Getty Images Parting Words FAUCI FATIGUE — Fauci’s virtual Senate appearance was meant to warn against a quick reopening — a message some Republicans did not want to hear. Fauci’s testimony today clashed with the GOP’s vision of resuming commerce at some level this spring and summer, and added to growing fatigue among some Republicans with one of the government’s most trusted public health leaders, Burgess Everett, Andrew Desiderio and Marianne LeVine write. “There’s a spectrum of everything. And I think he’s on the overly cautious end of the spectrum,” Covid survivor Sen. Rand Paul said after parrying with Fauci at the hearing. “I don’t think he’s doing it because he’s a bad person, but if we’re overly cautious and we wait until all infectious disease goes away … we’ll wait forever and the country is going to be destroyed.”   A message from The Mortgage Bankers Association: Individual Needs. Individual Solutions. We understand that mortgage relief is not one-size-fits-all. The COVID-19 pandemic has left many Americans in unique financial situations. That’s why we encourage you to contact your mortgage company if paying your mortgage poses a financial hardship. There are options to help meet your needs. Visit MBA.org/consumerinfo for more information on forbearance options.   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam   Follow us

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