POLITICO NIGHTLY: April Cruel

By Renuka Rayasam

Presented by

A GLIMPSE INTO OUR FUTURE — At least 835 people died today, the stock market dropped almost 5 percent, and it just feels like Wednesday. Many of us have grown accustomed to life in a pandemic. And we're told it's going to get worse before it gets better. What can that even look like? If Italy is our fortune teller: even tighter lockdowns, looting, people uttering their final words during a video chat. It's happening there already. The two countries share the same broad characteristics when it comes to the virus trajectory. "We think Italy may be the most comparable area to the United States at this point," Vice President Mike Pence said on CNN today. "I know that there's another organization the Gates Foundation has supported that's done similar modeling." In both countries, testing capabilities and hospital beds are in short supply and lockdowns have been happening slowly and unevenly. What can Americans expect based on the Italian experience in the coming months? We texted with POLITICO's Italy correspondent Silvia Sciorilli-Borrelli over WhatsApp today about life in Rome right now. The interview has been edited for length and clarity. How have things changed in Italy during the past month? Social anger is on the rise. There have been assaults at supermarkets down south, linked to organized crime, which has led the government to announce it will hand out cash to all 8,000 municipalities across the country for poor people to buy food. Parents are increasingly concerned about their kids. Walks and jogs were forbidden. They changed this last night after people and parents said they were going nuts without being able to do sports or walk around the block with their kid. If Italy is the model then you should expect a gradual but total shutdown including in areas where the outbreak isn't severe. Probably no school until September. Is there any improvement on the horizon? The lockdown measures here seem to be working. The virus hasn't spread as quickly and violently to other parts of the country. What's your life been like since you wrote your piece, "My Life in Italian Isolation"? My husband travelled to Rome a few days ago after London went into lockdown too. It took him 16 hours and three flights to get here, and he's had to self-isolate since. I bring him food and he's staying in our apartment while I've gone to stay with my parents to help out my mom. I never see her. She stays in a different room but at least I'm around to help. Tell me about the testing situation in Italy. There won't be widespread testing and tracing as has been the case in South Korea and China. Also there isn't a very clear policy as to who should get tested. I got tested and it took six days to get my negative result back. Labs are jammed. What is the experience of people in hospitals? The elderly in serious conditions are in a devastating situation, lots of people who die on their own and say their goodbyes via FaceTime with the help of a nurse. One nurse told me a grandmother wanted to see her granddaughter one last time. And died during the call. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition, a nightly intelligence brief from our global newsroom on the impact of the coronavirus on politics and policy, the economy and global health. Hi from Austin, where the bluebonnets are out even if we aren't. Reach out: rrayasam@politico.com and @renurayasam.

A message from Navigator Research: Nearly 70% of Americans are worried that there won't be room in hospitals or available doctors if they get sick from coronavirus, according to "Navigating Coronavirus, a new daily tracking poll by Navigator Research measuring the impact of the pandemic on American life. See the latest report.

First In Nightly

THE OTHER TASK FORCE — The one person inside the Trump administration you don't see on the White House podium — Jared Kushner — has emerged as perhaps the most pivotal figure in the national fight against the pandemic, report Adam Cancryn and Dan Diamond . The president's son-in-law is relying on select officials to develop a coronavirus response, including his one-time former roommate and current U.S. foreign investment czar Adam Boehler. Former Obama official Andy Slavitt is advising Kushner along with a group of outside private-sector experts — private equity executives and McKinsey consultants — who are working alongside government officials from FEMA, HHS and USAID. The team is distinct from the White House task force led by Pence and has managed to bypass the bureaucratic structures and internal rivalries that slowed progress in the response's early months. It's also driven some of the most recent work on testing, supplies and planning. But there's also confusion and potential conflict of interests brewing. Projects are so decentralized that one team often has little idea what others are doing, and there is limited vetting of private companies' and executives' financial interests.

THURSDAY - Coronavirus Special Report: Virtual Briefing Series: Companies and academic institutions are racing to create a coronavirus vaccine. What are the hurdles to creating and rolling out a vaccine? What regulations or standards might need to be relaxed to move the process along faster? Join POLITICO health care reporters on Thursday, April 2 at 9 a.m. EDT for a virtual briefing on the race to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus. Register here to watch.

On The Economy

JOBS? JOBS? JOBS?— Weekly unemployment claims will be reported Thursday, and they're expected to be worse than last week's , which were nearly five times higher than the previous record, set four decades ago. States are racing to get benefit checks to the jobless as millions of new workers face layoffs, our trade reporter Megan Cassella tells us. State employment agencies are buckling under the strain of millions of unemployed servers, hairdressers and others and are trying to figure out how best to distribute benefits to freelancers and contractors now eligible for unemployment checks under the most recent congressional emergency aid legislation. States, for example, need to calculate how much an Uber driver with variable income should get from the bill. "Officials are still figuring what exactly that process should look like," Megan said. The ripple effects of a continued lockdown could spark new rounds of layoffs even among people who thought they were immune from the crisis. "There's this idea that some people are operating under a false sense of security," Megan said. Then there's people who still aren't eligible for benefits, like those who voluntarily left their jobs because they were sick or to take care of kids now home from school.

Talking to the Experts

What are the challenges in developing vaccines or identifying medicines for this virus? "The H1N1 response showed us that we also need to consider how vaccines and treatments will be deployed and distributed. It is important that systems be designed to ensure the products can be delivered quickly when they are available and they are prioritized for populations that need them the most." — Julie Swann, former CDC science adviser for the H1N1 pandemic response as told to health care reporter Sarah Owermohle "The challenges include the science (developing a vaccine that works), the testing and approval process (multiple phases of trials prior to approval), funding and incentives (companies might need external funds to support vaccine development and capacity for manufacturing, or some assurance that there will be a market for it once it is manufactured), manufacturing process (it may take months to set up and ramp up), and the availability of raw materials (to ensure the manufacturing can be done at the desired scale)." — Pinar Keskinocak, infectious disease modeling expert at Georgia Tech     Around the Nation GOVS VS. COVID — New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's informative and emotive press conferences have made him a national political star. But his record in responding to the crisis is more complicated than the sheen lets on, Bill Scher writes for POLITICO Magazine. And other governors have risen — and fallen — in the face of the pandemic. Among Bill's top performers: Ohio's Mike DeWine. Near the bottom: Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves. The next 30 days — Your Nightly host joined POLITICO Dispatch for the latest episode to talk about what looks like "a really grim April," as epidemiologists say the number of deaths from coronavirus in the U.S. is likely to double every three days. The White House is warning that this month will be crucial in the fight against the coronavirus — and that even if the current social distancing guidelines are followed, deaths could reach 240,000. But President Donald Trump still hasn't issued a nationwide "shelter in place" order. Renuka explains why. Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast Linda Bodell, from Minnesota, takes in some sun on the walkway leading to the beach in Hollywood, Fla., which has shuttered its beaches. | Getty Images The Global Fight UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AID RECIPIENT — The U.S. is in the middle of a giant role reversal, our Ryan Heath writes. It's no longer the donor of aid, but the recipient. It's no longer the leader in global forums, but the follower. If Jack Ma's private medical donation of masks and test kits raised eyebrows, Russia airlifting supplies to the richest country on earth verges on embarrassing. In quick succession this week, the U.S. ignored a United Nations appeal for a multitrillion dollar global response, froze its own coronavirus aid efforts, and took aid from its greatest, and much poorer, foe. The U.S. administration is not alone in turning inward or feeling desperate. Other rich countries including in Europe rushed export bans on medical equipment (before walking them back) and all are fighting to protect their health care workers. Yet Americans are likely to feel the medium and long-term consequences of ignoring the world's most vulnerable countries and population. The prime minister of Ethiopia said that if the virus spreads like wildfire in Africa or India, the chances of keeping it contained elsewhere evaporate . The risk is real: Mumbai's slums have a population density 13 times greater than Manhattan. Africa's best-equipped country — South Africa — has around the same number of ventilators as Ohio, but must stretch them across 60 million people. Liberia has just three ventilators. Nightly Number 6,000 — The number of Carnival Cruise Line passengers still on ships at sea. The company announced, in an SEC filing tied to a stock offering, that they may not be able to disembark until the end of April.   THE FDA & AGENCY IQ: The FDA is at the epicenter of the federal government's ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic. POLITICO's newest division, AgencyIQ, is providing around-the-clock coverage of the developing public health crisis for regulatory professionals in the biopharmaceutical and in vitro diagnostic (IVD) communities. AgencyIQ's full suite of research and analysis is available in the COVID-19 Resource Center , which addresses important topics, ranging from development pathways available to companies bringing new medical products to the public to the impact of FDA's efforts to accelerate the introduction of a vaccine for the novel coronavirus. If you are monitoring this situation and the FDA actions at a micro level, check it out here.     Parting Words PRIME MINISTER WHO? When Belgium's prime minister went on TV last month to lock down the country to fight coronavirus, many citizens may have had one response: "Who was that?" Sophie Wilmès, the former budget minister who was sworn in in October, has shifted from accidental head of a caretaker government to leading the country through a pandemic. During Belgium's largest crisis since World War II, Wilmès is leading with the future of the nation — and her political career — hanging in the balance. Belgians know her now, and a parliamentary confirmation vote is scheduled for September. A message from Navigator Research: Early polling shows that Americans characterize Trump's response to the pandemic as being "unprepared" and "chaotic." They also give the President low marks for being "honest." When presented with a series of words and asked to select which ones best describe Trump's handling of coronavirus, "unprepared" emerges as the top descriptor, with 6-in-10 Americans saying it applies to the president's response. We are currently experiencing the greatest crisis of our lifetimes -- and public opinion is changing by the day. Stay up to date with "Navigating Coronavirus," a source for daily polling and messaging updates about the pandemic. Visit Navigator Research for the latest insights and sign up for daily updates.   Did someone forward you this email? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam   Follow us    POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA