POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Boston’s Election Day by the numbers

Boston’s Election Day by the numbers

By KELLY GARRITY 

 

09/09/2025 07:32 AM EDT

FINAL COUNTDOWN — It’s not a question of if Boston Mayor Michelle Wu finishes first in today’s mayoral preliminary election, but by how big a margin.

If polling data is to be believed, Wu and challenger Josh Kraft should easily move on to November’s general election. But Wu’s margin isn’t the only digit defining today’s mayoral contest, or the competitive down-ballot matchups. Let’s run some numbers:

15 percent — The margin Kraft told Bloomberg last month could help renew interest in his campaign heading into November. Recent polling shows Kraft trailing Wu by wider margins (by as much as 50 percent in an Emerson College poll last week). One silver lining to the tough poll: It makes it easier to beat expectations.

$6.7 million — How much all four candidates have spent this calendar year, per the state’s Office of Campaign and Political Finance. Kraft has been the biggest spender so far, shelling out more than $5.5 million on the race since he jumped in in February. Wu spent the second most this year, more than $1.1 million. Perennial candidate Robert Cappucci has spent almost $37,000 on his bid from January to August, and community activist Domingos DaRosa trailed him with about $7,700 spent.

More than $4 million — How much money super PACs have spent on the race so far. That includes roughly $3.1 million from Your City, Your Future PAC that’s backing Kraft, and just under $1 million from the Bold Boston PAC supporting Wu.

11 — The number of candidates in the race to replace former City Councilor Tania Fernandes Anderson, who was recently sentenced to a month in prison after facing federal corruption charges, in District 7.

Historically low turnout in preliminary elections combined with a big field of candidates means the results of tonight’s vote are really up in the air. Who we’re keeping an eye on: Said Abdikarim, who has a non-profit background and Fernandes Anderson’s endorsement; Mavrick Afonso, a City Hall alum who works in the state’s Executive Office of Housing and Livable Communities; Said Ahmed, the founder of the Boston United Track and Cross Country program; Samuel Hurtado, who served as chief of staff to former City Councilor and past Acting Mayor Kim Janey; and Miniard Culpepper, a pastor who previously ran for state Senate. Boston.com and The Boston Globe have your candidate guides. 

8 — The number of candidates who will move on the crowded at-large race. The four incumbents — Ruthzee Louijeune, Erin Murphy, Julia Mejia and Henry Santana — are expected to make it past the preliminary. Who else will move on? City Hall watchers expect former City Councilor Frank Baker (who has the backing of several high-profile Boston politicos, including former Mayor Marty Walsh); Boston’s Director of Cultural Affairs Alexandra Valdez; Will Onuoha, who has worked in the mayor’s Office of Fair Housing and Equity; and Marine veteran and small business owner Marvin Mathelier to round the list of voter-getters tonight.

Watch to watch: If any challengers rack up more votes than any of the incumbents.

0 — Endorsements from Gov. Maura Healey. Healey gave Wu the cold shoulder when asked if she was supporting the incumbent mayor, one of the most high-profile fellow Democrats in the state, in the preliminary.

“The preliminary is tomorrow, and I'm gonna let the voters decide that tomorrow and see what happens,” she told reporters Monday at the State House.

Other former pols did weigh in Monday. Former City Councilor Annissa Essaibi George, who Wu bested in the 2021 election, endorsed Kraft yesterday. So did former state Sen. Dianne Wilkerson, who previously pleaded guilty to taking tens of thousands of dollars in bribes and spent over two years in prison.

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Happy Election Day! Polls are already open, and will stay open until 8 p.m. Find your polling place through the Secretary of State’s website.

TODAY — Gov. Maura Healey and Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll make an announcement related to housing development at 11:30 a.m. in Medford. Driscoll speaks at an event rebranding the Lawrence General and Holy Family Hospitals at 10 a.m. in Methuen and chairs a Local Government Advisory Commission meeting at 1 p.m.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for the Playbook? Drop me a line: kgarrity@politico.com. 

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DATELINE BEACON HILL

FUN AND GAMES — Hasbro chooses Boston Seaport for new headquarters by Grant Welker, Boston Business Journal: “Hasbro Inc., one of the world’s largest toy companies, will move its headquarters to Boston from its long-time home of Rhode Island. The company will occupy seven floors across 265,000 square feet at 400 Summer St. in the Seaport District, it said Monday. At least 700 employees are expected to fill the office. The decision ends a relocation search that began last year, when Hasbro and Massachusetts government leaders met over dinner and started discussing a move. Hasbro’s move is the latest company that Boston’s been able to draw from across the region.

”JUST NOT FOR RHODE ISLAND — R.I. legislative leaders call Hasbro move to Boston 'very disappointing’ via WPRI.

YAHD SIGNS AND BUMPAH STICKAHS

— GOP candidate Mike Kennealy led August fundraising largely because of self-funding by Chris Van Buskirk, Boston Herald: “[Republican gubernatorial candidate Mike] Kennealy brought in $226,896 in August, including $200,000 from a loan he gave his campaign and $26,896 from individual contributors, according to state data. That is his lowest month for individual contributions since launching his campaign in April, records show. He raised over $111,000 from individual contributors in April, more than $91,000 in May, over $101,000 in June, and more than $54,000 in July, according to an analysis of state data. Brian Shortsleeve, another Republican running for governor, raised more than Kennealy from individual donors in May, June, and July, state records show. In the month of August, Shortsleeve, a venture capitalist and former MBTA official under Baker, raised $119,141 and spent another $79,736, according to data from the Office of Campaign and Political Finance.”

MIGRANTS IN MASSACHUSETTS

— Beacon Hill’s three most powerful Democrats slam Trump from immigration surge in Massachusetts by Chris Van Buskirk, Boston Herald: “Top Beacon Hill Democrats criticized President Donald Trump’s administration Monday for renewing a surge of immigration arrests in Boston over the weekend, with Gov. Maura Healey calling the actions ‘political theater” and “attempts to distract from Trump’s failing agenda.’ Immigration agents from across the country descended on Boston and other municipalities for an operation U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials dubbed ‘Patriot 2.0,’ a reference to a previous uptick in action earlier this year that resulted in nearly 1,500 arrests.”

—  U.S. Border Czar Tom Homan warns of ‘permanent’ ICE surge in Massachusetts by Kerry Kavanaugh, Boston 25. 

THE LOCAL ANGLE

— Court filing alleges sexual harassment by City Councilor Joe Lopes by Colin Hogan, The New Bedford Light: “A recently filed lawsuit by a former top manager at the MassHire Greater New Bedford Workforce Investment Board includes two allegations of sexual harassment against Joe Lopes, the current Ward 5 city councilor. Abigail Despres, the former CFO and former acting CEO of the local Workforce Investment Board, is accusing the organization and several of its board members of sex discrimination, parental leave discrimination, and retaliation for opposing sexual harassment within the organization. Lopes, who served as the CEO of the Greater New Bedford Workforce Investment Board until June 2024, is not named as a defendant in the lawsuit. But the lawsuit describes allegations against Lopes, including ‘abusive behavior’ and unwanted ‘sexual advances’ toward employees, during his tenure as CEO.”

— Select Board chooses Chris Dillon for Billerica town manager by Peter Currier, The Lowell Sun: “The Select Board voted 4-0 in a special meeting Saturday to appoint Chris Dillon as town manager after he had been serving as Billerica’s acting town manager since May. Dillon was one of four final candidates to be considered for the position, the others being former Truro Town Manager Darrin Tangeman, former Marshfield Town Administrator Michael Maresco, and Concord Chief Financial Officer Anthony Ansaldi. Board members Michael Rosa, Daniel Darris-O’Connor, John Burrows and Chair Jillian Pavidis voted for Dillon to be appointed, while Dina Favreau abstained from voting.”

— City gave robotics grant despite stark warnings, new records show by Grace Ferguson, The New Bedford Light: “New Bedford city officials gave $2.25 million to a local robotics nonprofit after the city’s own auditors repeatedly warned that the grant came with significant risks. Internal memos show auditors had deep concerns about New Bedford Research & Robotics, which received a pandemic relief grant last spring to renovate a vacant garage into an innovation center.”

— New ballot lottery set after Barone reinstated as Attleboro councilor-at-large candidate by Rhianwen Watkins, The Sun Chronicle: “Timothy Barone, who was removed from the November election ballot after city officials ruled there was insufficient evidence he was an Attleboro resident, will be reinstated as a result of a Superior Court judge’s order. Additionally, another ballot lottery for the councilor-at-large race will be held with Barone’s name in the mix. The lottery will be held at 1 p.m. Wednesday in the Annex Conference Room at city hall, and is open to the public.”

— Report: New Bedford police use hundreds of informants, and many are active criminals by Frank Mulligan, The Standard-Times.

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MEDIA MATTERS

— Inside the Boston Globe’s high-stakes investigation of the Boston Globe by Max Tani, Semafor: “Brendan McCarthy, the editor of the Boston Globe’s legendary “Spotlight” investigative team, is exactly the guy you’d expect to play Brendan McCarthy in the movie: He’s credentialed, occasionally abrasive, and his official headshot makes him look more like Michael Clayton than Michael Keaton. Back when he was a TV reporter in New Orleans, he played himself on the HBO show Treme. At the Globe, he led a team that delivered the 2021 Pulitzer for a series about dangerous drivers. McCarthy, a 2004 graduate of Boston’s Emerson College, is a familiar newsroom character: A big personality, a star — and, recently, a bit of a management challenge. But what, exactly, does that mean in 2025?”

HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Michael Greenwald, Evandro Carvalho, Andrew Crane, Jason Denoncourt, Diedtra Henderson and Daniel Pipes.

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