POLITICO Nightly: Donald Trump’s unforced error

 

BY CALDER MCHUGH Former President Donald Trump arrives to address the press at Mar-a-Lago on Feb. 16. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images BACK TO THE FUTURE — For decades, there was one tried-and-true staple of presidential campaigns: The Democratic nominee would whack the Republican on proposals to reform, cut or privatize Social Security and other entitlements and reap the political rewards. In the most evocative example of the genre, a 2012 attack ad from a progressive advocacy group showed a character strongly resembling Paul Ryan literally pushing a grandmother in a wheelchair off a cliff. Four years later, Donald Trump changed the calculus. After watching Republicans fight losing battles over entitlement reform — in 2008, for example, Barack Obama’s campaign outspent John McCain on the issue by a factor of 150 to 1 — Trump decided to avoid the political turkey shoot entirely. “I’m not going to cut Social Security like every other Republican and I’m not going to cut Medicare or Medicaid,” Trump said in Iowa in 2015 . But now, thanks to an unforced error, Trump has effectively opened the 2024 general election campaign with a return to the third rail he sought to abandon almost a decade ago. Asked in a CNBC interview Monday whether he’d changed his outlook on how to handle entitlements, Trump argued in a word salad-heavy answer that “there is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting and also the theft and the bad management of entitlements.” It’s not obvious from his answer whether he’s had a material change of heart on Social Security, because it’s not obvious what he means at all. In early 2020 he made a similar comment that he quickly walked back , that he would “at some point” look at cutting entitlements; nothing came of it. But this time, his campaign immediately recognized he had stepped on a landmine. A campaign spokesperson tried some cleanup on Monday, arguing that Trump will “continue to strongly protect Social Security and Medicare in his second term.” By then, though, it was too late. Trump suddenly found himself on the defensive, in the position so many prior GOP nominees have been in. He had given up the tactical advantage he had used to swamp his GOP rivals in the 2016 primary, back when he recognized that, when it came to entitlement reform, the only winning move is not to play . At the time, he hammered Ben Carson on wanting to get rid of Medicare and said that Paul Ryan had “been so anti-Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security.” He followed the same tack in his current primary campaign, insisting that Social Security cuts are off the table. During a January rally in New Hampshire, Trump went so far as to attack Haley as a return to the days when the GOP establishment had its eye on entitlement cuts. “[She] supported Paul Ryan’s plan to destroy Medicare … Do you remember that?” Trump said in the run-up to the first-in-the-nation primary. “That was Paul Ryan throwing granny off the cliff. We’re not doing that.” In case there were still any lingering doubts about where he stands, a section of his campaign website underscored his message . “Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security,” it reads. All of that is out the window now. Trump’s comments on cutting entitlement spending sounded the starting gun on a line of attack that Trump has never really had to contend with. Recognizing the opportunity, the Biden campaign today released a video of the president watching Trump’s answer, shaking his head, and turning to the camera to say, “this man has no idea what he’s talking about. Over my dead body will he cut Social Security so he can give tax breaks to the super wealthy … This is worth the fight all by itself.” The entitlement fight isn’t the only ghost of past elections that have inconveniently returned. Since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, he has largely avoided articulating a clear position — his stance seems to be coalescing around support for a 15-week or 16-week national ban . But his strategic ambiguity isn’t sustainable in an election where abortion rights are center stage. This isn’t 2016, when he had yet to appoint three Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade and his Republican primary rivals were attacking him for his formerly pro-choice stance . In 2024, he owns Dobbs . And, thanks to his recent remarks, Democrats will make sure he owns the longstanding Republican position on entitlement reform. It’s a rough, but somehow familiar, way to kick off the general election. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh .   SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW .     WHAT'D I MISS? — Key moments from Special Counsel Robert Hur’s interview of Joe Biden: Ahead of former Special Counsel Robert Hur’s testimony today on his report about President Joe Biden’s handling of classified information, lawmakers released a transcript of Hur’s interview with Biden — a document that sheds major new light on his findings. Hur used his testimony to defend the impartiality of his report, which Biden and his allies slammed as gratuitous for highlighting perceived lapses in the president’s memory and suggesting that Biden could portray himself as a “sympathetic, well-meaning elderly man.” The former Justice Department special counsel’s findings are facing heavy scrutiny — read four key moments from the transcript . — U.S. inflation up again in February in latest sign that price pressures remain elevated: Consumer prices in the United States picked up last month, a sign that inflation remains a persistent challenge for the Federal Reserve and for President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign, both of which are counting on a steady easing of price pressures this year. Prices rose 0.4 percent from January to February, higher than the previous month’s figure of 0.3 percent, the Labor Department said today. Compared with a year earlier, consumer prices rose 3.2 percent last month, faster than January’s 3.1 percent annual pace. Despite February’s elevated figures, most economists expect inflation to continue slowly declining this year. — Buck announces he will leave Congress early, further driving down GOP majority: Republican Rep. Ken Buck announced today that he will leave the House on March 22 , moving up his existing retirement plans. Buck’s decision will leave Republicans with a paltry 218 seats in the chamber, compared to Democrats’ 213, furthering Speaker Mike Johnson’s constant struggle to herd the House GOP and pass any legislation through regular order. Republicans can still only afford to lose two votes on any bill with united Democratic opposition, assuming full attendance. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 President Joe Biden, center left, talks with Teamsters union President Sean O'Brien, facing, after he spoke about strengthening the supply chain with improvements in the trucking industry, April 4, 2022, on the South Lawn of the White House. | Andrew Harnik/AP NO RUSH — The head of the Teamsters union emerged from a meeting with President Joe Biden today with warm words for his labor record but said any potential endorsement would be a ways down the road , POLITICO reports. “Historically the Teamsters union do not make an endorsement until after the respective conventions,” General President Sean O’Brien told reporters at the union’s D.C. headquarters shortly after the roundtable event. “However, this has been a different process. We’ve never had candidates into the building, never had rank-and-file participation.” The Teamsters union has long been a pillar of the Democratic coalition. But this election cycle under O’Brien, who took over in March 2022, the union opened its doors to independent and Republican presidential candidates willing to meet with union members — including former President Donald Trump in January, following a personal appeal from O’Brien. The decision to host Trump, whose administration advanced a host of policies that hampered organized labor’s power and installed appointees who Biden quickly swept out in favor of union-friendly ones, generated some internal friction among Teamsters. CAN’T RULE IT OUT — Former Justice Department Special Counsel Robert Hur today declined to rule out accepting an appointment from Donald Trump if the former president were to return to the White House. During Hur’s testimony before the House Judiciary Committee about his report on President Joe Biden’s handling of classified documents, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) questioned the former special counsel about his avowal that he wants his findings to be seen as credible. The Californian then asked Hur — who was tapped for a U.S. attorney position by Trump — if he would pledge not to accept any future Trump appointment as a way to increase his report’s credibility. Hur demurred, telling Swalwell that “I’m not here to offer any opinions about” future developments. AROUND THE WORLD RED LINE — Congressional action to block U.S. arms sales to Israel is “certainly something that’s on the table ” if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launches a large-scale invasion of Rafah, a top senator said today. The remarks by Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) come amid pressure from Democrats for President Joe Biden to take a tougher tack in his rift with Netanyahu over Israel’s strategy in Gaza. Netanyahu said in an interview published Sunday that he intends to press ahead with a Rafah invasion in defiance of Biden’s warning that such an offensive would be a “red line.” RISKY YEAR — The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) expects an increased “risk of localized interethnic violence during 2024” in the Western Balkans , according to an annual assessment, reports POLITICO EU. The report says nationalist Balkan leaders are “likely to exacerbate tension for their political advantage” while external actors threaten to “reinforce and exploit ethnic differences” to maintain their influence on the region and “thwart” the integration of Western Balkan countries into EU or Euro-Atlantic institutions. The report mentions clashes between Serb nationalists and Kosovar police in the north of Kosovo last year that led to deaths and injuries, including injuries to NATO peacekeepers. The ODNI sees another ethnic violence threat in pro-Russia Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, who is taking “provocative steps to neutralize international oversight in Bosnia and secure de-facto secession” for Republika Srpska, Bosnia’s Serb-dominated entity. Dodik has repeatedly threatened to secede from Bosnia-Herzegovina, which is expected to open membership talks with the EU. While declaring the European path “important,” he visited both Russia and Belarus just last month.   DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The stakes are high as America's health care community strives to meet the evolving needs of patients and practitioners, adopt new technologies and navigate skeptical public attitudes toward science. Join POLITICO’s annual Health Care Summit on March 13 where we will discuss the future of medicine, including the latest in health tech, new drugs and brain treatments, diagnostics, health equity, workforce strains and more. REGISTER HERE .     NIGHTLY NUMBER $300 million The size of an emergency package of aid , which includes additional Army Tactical Missile Systems (missiles that travel 100 miles and carry warheads containing hundreds of cluster bomblets), that the U.S. will send to Ukraine. RADAR SWEEP THE GEN-Z WORKPLACE — Some older members of Gen-Z — the eldest of whom are currently 27 — are starting to dip their toe into the realm of managing other employees or beginning their own companies. In doing so, they’re reimagining what the workplace looks like , highlighting empathy as an essential quality in a manager and implementing things like “mindfulness Fridays.” The tension is, according to many of their older colleagues, members of Gen-Z are on par more difficult to work with than other generations, sometimes lacking skills or motivation. It’s a generational shift in work that we’ve seen before, but potentially to a more significant degree, as motivations between Gen-Z and other generations are further apart than we’ve seen in the past. Anne Marie Chaker reports for The Wall Street Journal. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 2009: Bernie Madoff pleads guilty to 11 federal felonies, admitting his culpability in the world's largest Ponzi scheme. Pictured is Judith Welling, a Manhattan resident who lost money investing with Madoff, speaking to the media outside the courthouse. | Henny Ray Abrams/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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