Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO NIGHTLY: Why McCarthy survived the tapes

Friday, April 29, 2022

POLITICO NIGHTLY: Why McCarthy survived the tapes

Presented by Connected Commerce Council

With help from Joanne Kenen and Steven Shepard

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy talks to reporters at the Capitol. | J. Scott Applewhite, File/AP Photo

WHAT’S IN THE BOX? Few endings in film history are as memorable as the final scene of “Se7en,” the grisly 1995 crime thriller directed by David Fincher. At the movie’s conclusion, the detectives played by Brad Pitt and Morgan Freeman are alone with the serial killer who’s haunted them when Pitt’s character gets an unexpected delivery — and Freeman’s character sees first that it’s the severed head of his partner’s pregnant wife.

The recent trickle of leaked audiotapes of Kevin McCarthy — in which the House minority leader criticizes conservatives in his conference and suggests that President Donald Trump resign after the Capitol riot — might seem like a shocking, head-in-a-box blow to the Californian’s hopes of becoming speaker of the House next year. The version of McCarthy portrayed by New York Times reporters Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns and bolstered by the recordings is a far cry from the pro-Trump image he’s cultivated, and, perhaps worse, McCarthy’s quick denial of the Times’ initial report was proven false by a later tape.

But the Times tape isn’t McCarthy’s twist ending, the special delivery sent to kill his speakership dreams.

That’s in large part because of the source: House Republicans who might consider turning on their leader over the McCarthy recordings would have to reckon with the GOP’s widespread animosity toward the news organization that employs the reporters who uncovered the audio.

McCarthy’s speakership hasn’t yet turned into Bruce Willis in “The Sixth Sense” (dead and doesn’t know it) because the biggest strikes against him came from a newspaper that many in his party are dedicated to regularly dissing.

As POLITICO’s Olivia Beavers and Sarah Ferrisreported earlier this week , McCarthy allies pointed in part to “the way the newspaper asked the question” to justify dismissing the importance of the minority leader’s tortured, debunked denial of his recorded flirtation with a Trump resignation call after Jan. 6, 2021.

That’s not fair to the Times, its estimable reporters, or their new book, “This Will Not Pass.” But it does raise the question of who the character might be who could credibly deliver McCarthy his own political head in a box.

And here’s another uncomfortable truth: Trump is the only figure with the power to unravel McCarthy.

Allies of the former presidentsuggested he was pleased with McCarthy’s behavior during the Times-tape drama because it showcased his hold on the GOP leader. That doesn’t mean Trump won’t eventually give the California Republican his own last-act twist. The only thing that’s clear is that Trump would play a role in any fatal blow to McCarthy’s hopes to claim the speaker’s gavel — quite possibly the leading role.

So, sure, another tape of McCarthy’s private comments to fellow GOP leaders may yet emerge. And top House Republicans would again ask members to stay focused on their agenda ahead of the midterms, when they’re expected to take back one or both chambers of Congress. Any new revelation would risk chipping away, even if slightly, at McCarthy’s standing with members whose trust he needs to lead effectively.

But there’s only one scene partner for McCarthy in the denouement of his journey toward the helm of the House. Whether he likes it or not, he and Trump are locked in a cinematic mano-a-mano. We’ll soon see if his ending is happier than Brad Pitt’s.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at eschor@politico.com or on Twitter at @eschor.

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WHAT'D I MISS?

— White House sends Congress $33B request for Ukraine: The Biden administration has made a massive new funding request to Congress to bolster Ukraine’s military as its war with Russia enters its ninth week. The request comes as Ukraine and Russia face off in a pivotal battle in Ukraine’s east that will rely on high-tech weaponry such as drones, aircraft and long-range artillery.

— Moderna asks FDA to authorize Covid-19 vaccine for young kids: The drug company formally asked the FDA today to greenlight its Covid-19 vaccine for children under 6, a month after results showed the two-dose regimen provided immune protection in young children comparable to young adults and amid growing impatience from parents and lawmakers. While the agency can now begin to consider Moderna’s shot for distribution, a decision could still be weeks away.

— Oklahoma sends Texas-style abortion ban to governor: The Oklahoma House gave final approval today to an abortion ban that prohibits the procedure after about six weeks of pregnancy, before many people know they are pregnant. The bill, approved by the GOP-led House on a 68-12 vote without discussion or debate, now heads to Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt, who is expected to sign it within days.

— Whistleblower warned FDA about formula plant months before baby deaths: A former employee at an Abbott Nutrition infant formula plant flagged concerns about food safety violations directly with senior FDA officials in October — months before two infants died and another was hospitalized from bacterial infections after ingesting formula. Revelations of an early whistleblower warning reinforce concerns about leadership and decision making on food issues at the agency, which a POLITICO investigation looked into earlier this month.

— Biden admin struggles to calm the Democratic storm over immigration: Purple-state Democrats aren’t satisfied with the DHS plan to handle a summertime migration surge at the border, and several are still calling for a delay in lifting the Trump-era border restrictions known as Title 42. While a federal court this week temporarily blocked the policy change from proceeding, the pandemic measure remains a political flashpoint and a test for where Democrats stand on immigration policy.

— House Republicans attempt to force vote on transgender sports bill: Dozens of House Republicans on Wednesday signed on to a petition to force a vote on legislation that would ban transgender women and girls from playing on sports teams that match their gender identity. The petition, which needs 218 more signatures to bring the bill to the floor, is the strongest GOP attempt so far to advance what would be the first federal measure restricting transgender athletes’ participation.

JOIN US ON 4/29 FOR A WOMEN RULE DISCUSSION ON WOMEN IN TECH : Women, particularly women of color and women from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds, have historically been locked out of the tech world. But this new tech revolution could be an opportunity for women to get in on the ground floor of a new chapter. Join POLITICO for an in-depth panel discussion on the future of women in tech and how to make sure women are both participating in this fast-moving era and have access to all it offers. REGISTER HERE.

FROM THE HEALTH DESK

MASQUERADE — Several recentpolls show Americans still support the federal travel mask mandate , by a pretty large margin. POLITICO’s poll with Morning Consult found that 57 percent of voters — including a third of Republicans, more than half of independents and 83 percent of Democrats — backed the CDC’s two-week travel mask extension, before a federal judge nixed it.

But if you have gotten on an airplane recently — and Nightly’s Joanne Kenen has, to report a story and attend a health journalism conference — you do not see a lot of masks. On her recent Southwest flight from Baltimore to Austin, Texas, she estimates that not even 10 percent of the passengers wore masks. Nightly colleagues and friends have flown on similarly mask-light planes. Joanne’s mom, who is vaccinated and boosted but in her 80s, just flew to Atlanta for grandchild No. 5’s birthday and said that hardly anyone was wearing a mask on the plane. Even fewer had them in the Atlanta airport.

So what gives? Joanne, POLITICO’s former health editor and the Commonwealth journalist-in-residence at Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, turned to POLITICO’s polling expert, Steve Shepard, for answers.

Steve, are we a nation of poll liars?

We are a nation of poll liars! We tell pollsters we’re going to vote in elections when we’re not, that we follow the news more closely than we do, that we go to church or synagogue more frequently than we do, that we consume fewer alcoholic drinks than we do, that we have safer sex than we do.

But I’m not sure that’s what’s really going on here.

Most of the polls we’re talking about — including the latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, in which a majority of voters say they approved of extending the mandate — are conducted over the internet, without the pressure of responding to a live interviewer. If people are participating in these polls privately and anonymously, why would they feel those “social desirability” pressures?

Do you think people who support masking are staying home — they aren’t getting on planes with unmasked people unless they have to?

This appears to be the most likely explanation. I reached out to Ashley Kirzinger, the director of survey methodology at the Kaiser Family Foundation (which has done a ton of Covid and health care polling), and she said the population of frequent travelers “tends to be higher-income, [is] more likely to be white and male — all groups that are less willing to wear masks.”

What else might cause this kind of discrepancy?

I think social pressure might be playing a role here — but not in the way we might think.

Like you, I was recently on a flight (Washington to Louisville, Ky., yesterday), and I would estimate that only about 1 in 5 people were wearing masks at any given moment when I peered around the cabin. Even generally cautious people may look around at that kind of scene and decide that — given what others are doing and especially during the flight when the air inside is circulating best — it’s safe for them to take off their masks as well.

So if the flight mask polls are worthless or unreliable, are all pandemic-related polls unreliable?

I think we do need to be careful with some of this data. That was a lesson out of the 2020 election. Exit polls of actual voters showed closer divides on how Trump had handled the pandemic than the pre-election polls suggested. But we do know some of the data is solid. For example, polls that ask Americans if they’ve received a Covid vaccine generally match government stats about how many Americans have been vaccinated.

OK, so shots in arms we can count on, but masks on noses … not so much. I confess it does feel good to travel again, to report a story in person, to reunite with old friends, to explore a city I don’t know that well. But I still have two more flights before I get back to D.C. on Tuesday. I’m traveling with three rapid tests, 10 crossed fingers (mostly for Mom) and a stack of N95s — four styles and three colors. At this stage of the pandemic, at least I can accessorize.

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AROUND THE WORLD

STALEMATE — Negotiations to restore the Iran nuclear deal have reached a complete standstill.

Despite having a roughly 27-page agreement virtually ready to go , diplomats are still hung up over one final sticking point between the U.S. and Iran: The status of a powerful branch of the Iranian military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, write Stephanie Liechtenstein and Nahal Toosi.

The U.S. placed the group on its “Foreign Terrorist Organization” list in 2019, part of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign after pulling out of the nuclear deal, which limited Iran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief.

Now the issue has been dragged into the final stages of long-running talks to revive the nuclear deal under President Joe Biden. The topic is of such immense political sensitivity in both Washington and Tehran that a compromise has proved impossible and now seems increasingly unrealistic.

The sticking point revolves around the terrorist label technically falling outside the purview of the nuclear agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. The U.S., which maintains numerous other sanctions on Iran, is loath to strike agreements beyond the original deal’s contours, yet Tehran insists the subjects should be interwoven.

NIGHTLY NUMBER

1.4 percent

The annual rate at which gross domestic product shrank, the Commerce Department said today, was well below the 1 percent growth that economists had expected. The surprise presents a major messaging challenge for a White House that is grappling with waning consumer confidence despite months of strong job gains, rapid wage increases and declining layoffs, writes Morning Money author Kate Davidson.

DON'T MISS ANYTHING FROM THE 2022 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from the 25th annual Global Conference. This year's event, May 1-4, brings together more than 3,000 of the world’s most influential leaders, including 700+ speakers representing more than 80 countries. "Celebrating the Power of Connection" is this year's theme, setting the stage to connect influencers with the resources to change the world with leading experts and thinkers whose insight and creativity can implement that change. Whether you're attending in person or following along from somewhere else in the world, keep up with this year's conference with POLITICO’s special edition “Global Insider” so you don't miss a beat. Subscribe today.

PARTING WORDS

Former President Donald Trump greets supporters at the Save America Rally on Saturday, April 23, 2022, in Delaware, Ohio. | Joe Maiorana/AP Photo

YOU’RE NOT FIRED — Trump’s aides earlier this month told him about explosive allegations: That Charles Herbster, his endorsed candidate in the Nebraska governor’s race and a longtime top donor and ally, had sexually assaulted eight women.

But Trump did not withdraw his support for Herbster, or scrap plans to hold a Friday evening rally for the candidate in Nebraska. Instead, he doubled down: The former president relayed word that Herbster wasn’t fighting back hard enough, backing plans for Herbster to hold a press conference aggressively denying the allegations and pushing back at his adversaries, Alex Isenstadt writes.

Herbster followed suit, blasting the allegations as a “smear campaign” taken from the same “playbook” used to target Trump and Supreme Court justices Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh, when they faced accusations of sexual misconduct. And Herbster, a multimillionaire agricultural executive who owes his fortune in part to selling bull semen, boasted to reporters that he had brought on a law firm used by Trump to defend himself.

Trump’s unflinching support of Herbster, who served on a Trump White House agricultural panel and has known the former president since 2005, starkly illustrates the all-encompassing emphasis the former president places on loyalty. When Trump associates have faced allegations of misconduct, the question of what they did has often taken a back seat to how close they’ve been to Trump — who has then offered allies everything from pardons to campaign support in their time of need.

But this time, Trump’s involvement is especially loaded with political risk for the former president, who is obsessed with his win-loss record in GOP primaries. Nebraska Republicans say that despite Trump’s early involvement, the race for the Republican nomination on May 10 is a three-way dead heat between Herbster and two other candidates, multimillionaire hog farmer Jim Pillen and state Sen. Brett Lindstrom.

“It’s neck-and-neck-and-neck,” said Ryan Horn, a Nebraska-based Republican strategist.