| | |  | BY JOANNE KENEN | With help from Myah Ward NOT THROWING AWAY MY SHOT — Early in the pandemic, when Dr. Anthony Fauci predicted a coronavirus vaccine would be available within 12 to 18 months, I looked at a science-savvy colleague and together we rolled our eyes. We had, and still have, deep respect for Fauci, the longtime director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. But we knew that vaccines for new diseases don’t get developed in 12 to 18 months. They take years — if they get developed at all. Fauci, bless his heart, has been predicting we are on the brink of an HIV/AIDS vaccine for going on 40 years now. That optimism, that unfaltering faith in science, is part of his DNA. Fast forward eight months. We don’t have a vaccine. And despite President Donald Trump’s constant reassurances, we are extremely unlikely to have a vaccine by Election Day, at least not one with good, solid, trustworthy data showing it is both safe and effective. His own CDC director, Robert Redfield, told a Senate panel today that getting a vaccine broadly available to the American public would probably take until well into next year. Fauci’s prediction is an eye-roller no more. It is plausible that we will get a vaccine within a few months, even if its distribution is limited to high priority populations like hospital workers. We’ve seen amazing science over the last eight or nine months. Amazing science, with collaboration across the globe, a level of cooperation that we should encourage once this pandemic is finally behind us. Many things could still go wrong, as the recent brief pause to the Oxford-AstraZeneca trial reminded us. If you are prone to wake up and worry in the middle of the night, it’s too soon to stop. Yet there are more than a half dozen serious, strong vaccine candidates out there. Three are in advanced clinical trials. Maybe none will work, or maybe they will be less effective than hoped. Those are real possibilities that we must acknowledge and plan for, with more research into therapies and more money for tried and true public health measures like testing and contact tracing. But with each passing day, a vaccine is getting closer. A shot may be approved on the early side of Fauci’s 12- to 18-month time frame. Should this happen, the achievement is partly because of the dedication and commitment and hard work and brilliance from the research teams, from the lab bench to the clinics. But it’s also involved some luck. The coronavirus has mutated, because all viruses mutate. But it hasn’t mutated so dramatically that scientists have had to discard one hypothesis or vaccine target after another. Covid-19 is still Covid-19. A vaccine would not be magic. This disease will be with us for some time, even after we get a vaccine. There will be distribution foul-ups, supply shortages, mistakes — and fears and conspiracy theories. In the best case scenario, it will take time to immunize billions of people around the world. But a vaccine, even if the first ones aren’t as powerful as we’d like, can help contain the virus, shrink its footprint — its “lungprint” if you will. That will make it easier for public health to mitigate or contain. And while a vaccine, assuming one or more arrives, is not the direct result of any political promises, or a specific national prowess, or action of a single president, here or abroad, it’s also true that Operation Warp Speed is one policy the White House has gotten mostly right so far. The Trump administration has helped push the vaccine science and given the industry the cash to jump-start production. That makes it the rare — perhaps even singular — aspect of the White House coronavirus response that my sources in the scientific and public health communities give, at a minimum, begrudging respect. Yet all the claims and counterclaims about when a vaccine will be ready and how safe it will be — some coming from Trump himself — have created a great deal of public hesitancy, beyond the regular anti-vaccination sentiments. Joe Biden said today, “I trust vaccines, I trust the scientists, but I don't trust Donald Trump.” Biden said he’d take the shot himself — if he’s sure of the science. We figure he’ll watch to see if when Fauci encounters the vaccine, he rolls his eyes, or rolls up his sleeve. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition. For those of you looking for an excuse to drink tequila at home tonight, today is Mexican Independence Day. You should also try Chiles En Nogada. Reach out rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.
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| | BECOME A CHINA WATCHER : Many experts believe that if there is an "October surprise" leading up to Election Day, it will be a foreign policy-oriented development. What would be the likely scenario involving China? Some say a Phase One trade deal collapse could upend the election. Are they right? Join the conversation and gain expert insight from informed and influential voices in government, business, law, and tech. China Watcher is as much of a platform as it is a newsletter. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | REOPENING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE — Trump is scrambling his defenses in states like Ohio and Iowa, where he was once expected to win easily. Yet he’s also competing hard in others, such as Minnesota and Nevada, that were once viewed as far out of his reach. It’s an unconventional strategic approach to the electoral map this late in the campaign, but it’s a reflection of his unique predicament, David Siders writes. Trump’s stubborn floor of support is keeping him within range of Biden in a number of states where past Republicans have failed, yet his ceiling is so low that it threatens his hold in a number of other places that he should have locked down by now. The result is a campaign that’s fighting across a crazy-quilt landscape in the home stretch, rather than a well-defined core of swing states. Four years ago, Trump’s prospective map appeared much narrower at this point in the campaign. Exactly half of his general election campaign events were held in just four states: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. This year, Trump remains in the hunt in several blue states that were not widely thought to be within his grasp this year, including New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada. Uncertainty about the pandemic’s effect on voting and ongoing legal challenges surrounding mail voting have muddied turnout models across the country. And Republicans — and many Democrats — believe that if Trump can stay within striking distance of Biden by making small investments in many states, rather than big investments in a small number of states, he could benefit in any number of places from a shift in the national arc of the race.
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A school worker disinfects the desks at the end of the first day of school in Turin, Italy. | Getty Images | | | FRAGILE SUCCESS — The country’s recent progress against Covid-19 could be short-lived if Americans do not continue to take precautions like mask wearing and social distancing, HHS testing czar Brett Giroir said today. The number of new infections has decreased nationwide by 48 percent following a spike beginning around Memorial Day, while the number of coronavirus patients in intensive care units has dropped by 62 percent and deaths have fallen 33 percent over the same period, Giroir said during a Senate hearing. Giroir and CDC Director Robert Redfield warned that America won’t return to normal anytime soon, even as Trump insists the country has rounded the “final turn” in its battle against the coronavirus, health care reporter David Lim writes. “Let me say emphatically that these gains could be fleeting or even reversed if we do not continue to follow the national plan and exercise personal responsibility, especially wearing masks and avoiding crowds,” Giroir told the Senate Appropriations Committee. Take a break — Michael Caputo will take a 60-day medical leave of absence from his role as the top HHS spokesperson — a decision that comes days after he accused government scientists of “sedition” and warned of coming left-wing violence in a Facebook video. Paul Alexander, Caputo's science adviser — who was at the center of efforts to muzzle the department's career scientists — also will be leaving HHS, the department said. Caputo, who on Tuesday apologized to HHS staff for his remarks, confirmed to POLITICO that he is taking medical leave. In a statement released Wednesday afternoon, he said the leave would allow him “to pursue necessary screenings for a lymphatic issue discovered last week.”
| | HARD PASS — Senate Republicans brushed off calls from Trump today for a bigger coronavirus relief package, casting doubt on whether there is enough GOP support to move forward with additional economic stimulus measures just seven weeks before Election Day, Marianne LeVine and John Bresnahan write. In a tweet this morning, Trump described Democrats as “heartless,” but told Republicans to “go for the much higher numbers ... it all comes back to the USA anyway” on a coronavirus relief package. But Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) warned today that the bigger the price tag for any relief package, the more difficult it would be to get Senate Republicans on board. Roadblock — Remember when Congress passed bipartisan coronavirus relief earlier this year? It doesn’t look like that’s gonna happen again anytime soon — despite the tens of millions of Americans struggling right now. In the latest POLITICO Dispatch, Congress reporter Heather Caygle breaks down why negotiations are at a standstill.
| | | | Nightly asks you: Curbside delivery? Movies released straight to your home theater? Take-home cocktails? What changes from the Covid era do you want to remain, even after a vaccine arrives? Send us your answers on our form, and we’ll feature select responses in Friday’s edition.
| | MEMES VS. CARTOONS — Adam Padilla, the man behind the meme account Adam the Creator, talks to Matt Wuerker in the latest Punchlines about the evolution of political satire and Adam’s involvement in the Michael Bloomberg meme campaign. The two also face off in a “quick draw” competition, turning Donald Trump into an octopus in under five minutes.
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500 The number of employees in New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s office, including the mayor, who will be placed on a weeklong, unpaid furlough as the city grapples with a multibillion-dollar budget gap, de Blasio announced today. Employees will be required to take five unpaid days off between Oct. 1 and March, saving about $1 million for the city. That’s a drop in the bucket compared to the $9 billion in revenue the city has lost due to the coronavirus crisis, but de Blasio said the move was intended to send a message that the budget pain is being felt at the top. |
| | | PLAY BALL? The Big Ten will play football this fall, after the conference’s chancellors and presidents approved a reversal of their recent decision to postpone the season. They voted unanimously to resume the football season starting the weekend of Oct. 23. Today’s revival delivers a victory for Trump, who has demanded sports resume in an athletic conference that includes colleges in several swing states. The president has even intervened with calls to the Big Ten’s commissioner. “Great News: BIG TEN FOOTBALL IS BACK,” the president crowed on Twitter. The Big Ten — which includes colleges in Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, among other states — made its decision even as some other colleges postpone scheduled games or lose players to infections after pressing ahead with their own fall seasons. The virus continues to spread in and around college towns in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Virginia and other states. Meanwhile, on the West Coast, Gov. Gavin Newsom insisted today that California's coronavirus rules do not prohibit NCAA football, responding to statements from the University of Southern California and the Pac-12 conference that portrayed the governor as a major roadblock to starting the season. “There's nothing in our guidelines that prevent these games from occurring,” Newsom told reporters.
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| | DON’T MISS OUT ON POLITICO’S AI SUMMIT: How is artificial intelligence redefining the global balance of power? What’s next in Europe’s plan to pass laws for AI? How is the Covid-19 pandemic impacting tech policy priorities? Find out at the POLITICO EU AI Summit on September 30 and October 1. Hear from top global AI leaders such as Michael Kratsios, The White House’s chief technology officer, Margrethe Vestager, European Commission’s executive vice president for a Europe fit for the digital age and Didier Reynders, European commissioner for justice. Register now. | | | | | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. | |
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