POLITICO NIGHTLY: What does the GOP want?

By Sudeep Reddy and Renuka Rayasam Presented by UNCERTAIN SIGNALS — The Federal Reserve wants more aid to the economy. Democrats want a lot more aid to the economy. Republicans aren’t sure what they want or when they want it. That could be genuine uncertainty, or it could be a deliberately vague tactical bet. Either way, it will shape America’s economic path for months and likely determine the GOP’s fate in November. The worrisome case for the economy — the view that it urgently needs another rescue package lined up — is based on the current outlook: More than 30 million Americans lost their jobs in two months, and they all won’t be getting hired back quickly. Businesses are shuttering for good. State and local governments, crippled by revenue losses, are cutting payrolls. And the pandemic that caused all the damage will hang over America for months, perhaps a year or more, a worry the Fed articulated in the minutes from its latest meeting, released today. Nobody knows how many of the job losses will be temporary. Investors are counting on the government filling the gap; otherwise the reality of Depression-era unemployment levels will take a toll. The stock market, propelled by optimism about reopening and drugged by historic injections of government cash, is rocketing back to levels last seen at the other end of the unemployment spectrum a few months ago — with Facebook and Amazon hitting new highs today, and even beaten-down stocks like airlines getting a lift. A failure to maintain the government aid could smack voters just months before the election. Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, facing a tough reelection race in Colorado, articulated that concern today: “It’s unfathomable that the Senate is set to go on recess without considering any additional #COVID19 assistance for the American people.” In one tweet, Gardner both bucked his party’s stance and endorsed an approach to economic policy closer to the Democrats’ position than the GOP view this week. Watch for other vulnerable Republicans to join his camp as they study their own poll numbers. Trump, his aides and most GOP lawmakers are advancing a more bullish case: America needs to get back to work, the fewer restrictions the better. White House officials spent the week punting talk about another rescue package — an effort to remove any incentive to delay reopening by local leaders or businesses. Many Republicans recognize that Trump is already on track to rack up more federal debt in four years than his predecessor did in eight; finding a way to fix the economy without worsening that record is high on their minds. Republicans are increasingly voicing concerns that the extra $600 a week in jobless benefits — a boost that’s almost halfway to its July expiration date — will keep workers from returning to their jobs because they’d make more from unemployment. Trump has indicated he doesn’t want a similar boost to unemployment benefits if another aid package is needed — preferring tax cuts and direct checks if needed. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell joined him today in expressing the same view. It’s all a high-wire balancing act: A key reason the economy hasn’t collapsed even more is the extraordinary scale of the aid. All of this assumes coronavirus cases won’t surge in the coming months. If they do, the GOP will need an approach that can outdo the Democrats’ largesse. Gardner tried to jump-start an aggressive plan with a Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri in recent days that would even make some Democrats blush. The president loves to take his cues from the markets. A selloff triggered his intense engagement in the coronavirus outbreak in late February, and helped clear the path for a multitrillion-dollar rescue package in March. The market surge since then has helped reassure Trump that his policies are working. To keep the rally alive, investors now are counting on the president to eliminate the uncertainty about whether the government spigot will stay open. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition. Reach out with tips: rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.   A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, many Americans may find it harder to afford their medicines this month. PhRMA member companies are dedicated to helping patients access resources when they need them most. Our Medicine Assistance Tool was built to connect patients with resources that may help lower out-of-pocket costs.   First In Nightly HOW CORONAVIRUS CREATED MAGA 2.0 — With an economic crisis gripping the nation, President Donald Trump is reprising his 2016 slogan, with a twist: Make America Great Again, Again. Trump is trying to defy history by convincing Americans he can restore a coronavirus-decimated economy and become one of the only U.S. presidents to win reelection during a recession year. His argument, which has been met with skepticism from economists, is essentially: I’ve already built the economy once, I can build it a second time, White House correspondent and associate editor Anita Kumar writes. Trump aides and allies have told the president privately that he has no choice but to focus his campaign on rebuilding the economy, according to three people familiar with the discussions. The president’s political advisers also say there’s reason to believe it’s a winning message. Recent campaign and public polling show Trump slightly outperforming likely Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on handling of the economy even as the president finds himself on shaky ground nationally and in battleground states less than six months before the election. On a conference call last week with surrogates, the Trump campaign cited new internal polling that showed Trump with a 15-point advantage over Biden on the economy in 17 states the campaign is targeting in November, according to a person familiar with the call. But Calvin Coolidge was the last president to win as an incumbent during a recession — and that was in 1924.   YOUR TIME IS PRECIOUS: This global crisis has countries across the world and states across the country trying to balance public health with economic survival. POLITICO Dispatch is a short, daily podcast featuring experts from across our newsroom who provide the critical news and context you need in 15 minutes or less. Cut through the noise, subscribe and start listening today.     Couples exchange marriage vows at one of six pop-up, socially distanced marriage booths in the parking lot of the Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif., where the NHL's Anaheim Ducks usually play. | Mario Tama/Getty Images From the Technology Desk THERE’S AN APP FOR THAT — Apple and Google released software today that mobile-app developers can use to create contact-tracing apps for state and national governments. States have already poured millions of dollars into paying armies of public health workers to try to manually track the contacts of people who test positive for Covid. And states like North Dakota have already released their own apps that use GPS location data to track people’s movements and are supposed to alert them if they were exposed to someone who tested positive for the virus. Rhode Island has one that allows people to share location information with the state’s public health agency. Instead of using GPS to track users, Apple and Google propose using Bluetooth, the short-range wireless technology in basically every smartphone, to alert people who get close to someone who has tested positive. A recent Washington Post-University of Maryland poll found that nearly 60 percent of Americans said they couldn’t or wouldn’t use apps designed using Apple's and Google's technology. With public wariness about surveillance high, the effectiveness of the apps seems likely to be limited. Your host chatted with technology reporter Steven Overly and health care reporter Mohana Ravindranath over Slack about why two Big Tech firms set aside their differences, and whether the effort was worth it. This interview has been edited. Why are Apple and Google releasing this software? Steven: Apple and Google have said they were approached by governments to help solve a few key problems with Bluetooth-based technology. One is making the sure that iPhone and Android devices can actually exchange Bluetooth signals, so the apps would work no matter what brand you use. The other was helping to ensure this technology doesn’t decimate your phone’s battery life. Is this the latest example of tech companies saying they are going to save the world or is there something to the collaboration? Steve: This type of technology hasn’t been used before, at least not for this purpose and at this scale, so it’s unproven to say the least. If it does work, it has the potential to slow the spread of the disease. Mohana : The benefit of apps is they can pick up on people the patient doesn’t know, or doesn’t know they’ve exposed — someone sitting near them on a bus, at a coffee shop, in their office building. The companies are presenting this as a supplement to manual contact tracing — it's really intended to plug up the gaps in what the manual process misses. Why did the companies decide to use Bluetooth instead of GPS? Mohana: Apple and Google have been very firm about not gathering location data despite requests from states who think that’ll give them a better picture. It could be to assuage any concerns about surveillance, but they're facing some pushback from states who are forging ahead with GPS-based apps. Google already has a questionable track record with health information. Steven: They were definitely concerned that location data would be too personal and not something people would want to readily share. Some states want to use location data to detect hotspots, such as a grocery store where lots of coronavirus positive people have shopped. That’s not possible with the Bluetooth-enabled technology, and some see that as a real shortcoming. Are states actually going to use these tools? Steven: The response from states has been pretty disjointed, which is probably not a huge surprise. There are some states planning to use this technology, though the companies have declined to identify which ones. Still others, like Rhode Island, have already rolled out apps that use location data. They say they’ll evaluate the Google and Apple software now that it’s being released. Wouldn’t it make more sense to release one national app? Steven: Google and Apple have recommended one app per country. But the U.S. response to this pandemic hasn’t been nationalized; states have really set their own rules. That’s proving to be true with these contact-tracing apps as well. Mohana: Deploying one national app can be challenging especially when a lot of public health response happens at the state level. States have different health IT systems, and contact tracing workflows, and even different geographic demands. What works in a rural state might not work in a densely populated city. Many Americans use all kinds of apps that track their location data, and share their personal details with the world on social media. Are we being hypocrites by worrying about using an app to help in a public health emergency? Mohana: Large tech companies are known for harvesting data for targeted ads and marketing. It comes down to what we sometimes call the “ick factor” — a lot of people are just flat out uncomfortable sharing health data with tech companies, even if they know it's legal or private or secure. Steven: Let's not forget, there’s also been pushback on other disease-mitigating measures, such as face masks and stay-at-home orders. There's a real sense of individual liberty at play here, which could also animate whether someone decides to download one of these apps.     Around the Nation ALL THE COOL KIDS ARE WEARING ONE — California has a major goal to meet before schools can reopen: acquiring masks for teachers and more than 6 million students, California education reporter Mackenzie Mays writes. Local school districts will decide when they will welcome students back to physical classrooms and the state is not mandating a common opening date, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond said today. But he made one thing clear: Personal protective equipment is a must. The CDC recommended face coverings, desks spaced six feet apart, and, if feasible, daily health checks in schools as part of detailed guidance quietly published this week. Getting schooled — Education reporter Nicole Gaudiano explains in the latest edition of POLITICO Dispatch why the question of when schools will reopen is so difficult — and how schools are going to look very different when the students return: “Teachers unions are raising questions about, ‘We need more people in the schools, not less,’ at a time when state and local budgets are going to be under constraints because less money coming in, less revenue. … There’s a lot that’s just under consideration right now.” Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast On The Hill DISTANCE VOTING — Speaker Nancy Pelosi formally triggered a rules change allowing proxy voting on the floor in upcoming debates, a first in the House’s 230-plus year history. Pelosi’s move means House committees can hold remote hearings, including for marking up legislation in their panels, congressional bureau chief John Bresnahan reports. House Republicans could challenge Pelosi in court. They claim the rules change violates a constitutional requirement that members be physically present in order to establish a quorum to conduct legislative business. The Global Fight A VIRTUAL U.N. — The week-long diplomatic circus that is the United Nations General Assembly is about to become a giant video call. U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres writes — read the letter — that heads of state and government are “highly unlikely” to travel to New York, “an epicenter for Covid-19.” The real question is what took him so long, Ryan Heath writes. Guterres’ proposed solution is a string of up to 193 pre-recorded video messages, deemed “essential for a large-scale, coordinated and comprehensive multilateral response” to Covid-19 that he thinks world leaders have failed to deliver. The heart of the U.N. General Assembly experience — hundreds of side meetings, corridor chats and protest showdowns — would disappear. Major U.N. conferences on biodiversity and women are also set for delay, though Guterres suggested it might be possible for them to go ahead if New York’s social distancing rules are followed. For New Yorkers, the shift means they are finally getting a Covid-19 upside: the motorcade-free Manhattan of their dreams, having spent decades grumbling about losing the second half of September to gridlock and dictators’ wives’ shopping sprees.   BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE: A DIFFERENT KIND OF NEWSLETTER: “The Long Game,” presented by Morgan Stanley, explores the convergence of private sector leaders, political actors and NGO/Academic experts on the key sustainability issues of our time. Engage with the sharpest minds from the worlds of finance, technology, energy, agriculture and government around our biggest challenges, from pandemics to plastics, from climate change to land use, from inequality to the future of work. Searching for a nuanced look at these issues and solutions? Subscribe today.     Covid-2020 SWING STATE HIT — Trump mischaracterized Michigan’s absentee ballot policies today while threatening federal funding to the state if election officials there do not retreat from measures meant to facilitate mail-in voting, Zach Montellaro and Quint Forgey write. Asked by reporters which funding he wanted to freeze, Trump said only that he had “very specific funding in mind“ and pledged to keep the media apprised of whether a hold on funding would ultimately be necessary. “I don’t think it‘s going to be necessary,“ he added. Watch: Nightly Number $440 million The cost of testing every nursing home resident and staff member in the U.S. once, according to data from the American Health Care Association and National Center for Assisted Living. Ask The Audience Our question for our readers this week: Memorial Day weekend is almost here. How has the pandemic changed your plans for the summer? Use the form to send us your responses, and we plan to feature several later this week. Parting Words EUROPE TIPTOES BACK TO CLASS — Europe hasn’t been able to settle on a consistent approach on the reopening of schools, POLITICO Europe health care reporter Ashleigh Furlong writes. Germany began reopening schools in April, with older students returning first. In England, it’s the opposite, with primary schools poised to begin reopening in June. Belgium sent those in the final years of primary and secondary school back to school this week. Italy and Spain are treading much more cautiously and only reopening schools in September. “We need to think about the risks of both opening schools and keeping them closed to children, parents, teachers and support staff,” said Martin McKee, professor of European Public Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Policymakers aren’t just considering whether children get the virus, but how easily they may spread it — there is previous evidence of children being superspreaders of illnesses such as influenza and measles.   A message from PhRMA: America’s biopharmaceutical researchers work every day in the lab to find treatments and cures for patients. But patients must be able to access these discoveries. We built MAT, our Medicine Assistance Tool, to match patients with resources that may help with out-of-pocket medicine costs. Access resources.   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam

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